ricardo 7,239 Posted February 1, 2022 And the Model v Reality Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 1, 2022 Interesting chat with Danish Covid modeller. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 2, 2022 (edited) National 88,085 - 534 case and deaths no's now include re-infections so not strictly comparable. Yesterday's data included a large historical correction to include reinfections in the new UKHSA definition of a covid death. They added over 1000 deaths going all the way back to early 2020. As a side effect they also seemed to under-report recent deaths - that caught up today. rate of decrease of 3.5% 1.15 million tests Local Norwich West rate 891.2 starting to fall again N & N Patients 25-01-2022 83 24-01-2022 87 23-01-2022 91 22-01-2022 92 Vax 1st Dose 12,735 91.1% done Norwich numbers 79.3% Booster rate 56.3% 2nd Dose 26,367 84.3% done 73.9% Booster 37,984 total 37,380,067 65% In Hospital 01-02-2022 15,233 31-01-2022 15,708 30-01-2022 15,361 29-01-2022 15,091 28-01-2022 15,973 27-01-2022 16,210 Edited February 2, 2022 by ricardo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 2, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Herman said: Blimey. Don't panic Mr Mainwearing, this chart explains the situation the trend is clearly still down. Edited February 2, 2022 by ricardo 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pete Raven 276 Posted February 2, 2022 Deaths by report date rather than by death date is always risky, even more so today: "Please note: Due to the change in our reporting mechanisms to count reinfections, there have been some delays in the reporting of daily deaths. Today’s data includes a backlog of recent deaths and therefore today’s reported deaths are higher than would normally be the case." Although 162 for the latest date is, obviously, 162 too many. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Pete Raven said: Deaths by report date rather than by death date is always risky, even more so today: "Please note: Due to the change in our reporting mechanisms to count reinfections, there have been some delays in the reporting of daily deaths. Today’s data includes a backlog of recent deaths and therefore today’s reported deaths are higher than would normally be the case." Although 162 for the latest date is, obviously, 162 too many. Indeed, but some people still seem to think its the number that passed away yesterday no matter how many times I try to explain the process. Far better to look at the weekly trend which still shows a continued reduction. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted February 2, 2022 Numbers in hospital continue to fall which is the most important thing right now. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 350 Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, It's Character Forming said: Numbers in hospital continue to fall which is the most important thing right now. As do the number of those on mechanical ventilators 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pete Raven 276 Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ricardo said: Indeed, but some people still seem to think its the number that passed away yesterday no matter how many times I try to explain the process. Far better to look at the weekly trend which still shows a continued reduction. Yes, the good news is that it's falling. Doesn't help when Sky News publish this though. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-another-534-coronavirus-related-deaths-highest-daily-figure-since-february-last-year-12531239 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pete Raven 276 Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said: Numbers in hospital continue to fall which is the most important thing right now. Aye, only 38 in NNUH now compared to double that a week ago. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,585 Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, ricardo said: Indeed, but some people still seem to think its the number that passed away yesterday no matter how many times I try to explain the process. Far better to look at the weekly trend which still shows a continued reduction. Most of us know this but still find these numbers pretty shocking. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted February 2, 2022 I must admit I was surprised to hear that our local junior school was shut. Not sure if its staff or pupils. And fell through the floor when I heard the bloke who cuts our golf club grass (refuse to call him a greenkeeper) has gone down with it. I know there is a slight lag in Cornwall but it all seemed very quiet just recently and I didn't expect to hear of any new cases to be honest. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Pete Raven said: Yes, the good news is that it's falling. Doesn't help when Sky News publish this though. https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-another-534-coronavirus-related-deaths-highest-daily-figure-since-february-last-year-12531239 Reporters and news outlets have not exactly covered themselves with glory throughout this pandemic. They appear to court sensationalism rather than attempt a clear explanation of the true situation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted February 3, 2022 14 hours ago, ricardo said: Reporters and news outlets have not exactly covered themselves with glory throughout this pandemic. They appear to court sensationalism rather than attempt a clear explanation of the true situation. I think we have all got used to the media jousting away for coverage. Trouble is, even Government "experts" have enjoyed a bit of, shall we say kindly, exaggeration. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 3, 2022 National 88,171 - 303 rate of decrease of 2.6% 1.33 million tests Local Norwich West rate 891.2 starting to fall again (not updated today) N & N Patients 01-02-2022 56 31-01-2022 53 30-01-2022 52 29-01-2022 59 28-01-2022 62 Vax 1st Dose 12,466 91.1% done Norwich numbers 79.3% Booster rate 56.3% 2nd Dose 27,274 84.3% done 73.9% Booster 39,037 total 37,419,104 65.1% In Hospital 02-02-2022 14,816 01-02-2022 15,252 31-01-2022 15,723 30-01-2022 15,374 29-01-2022 15,102 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 3, 2022 Mask wearing seems to be slowly dropping away if my supermarket experience today is anthing to go by. Denmark still recording high number of cases but has declared the pandemic over. I feel we are at or not far from the same position in the UK. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,585 Posted February 3, 2022 Mask wearing stayed for quite a while, but as you say, the last couple of visits to the shops has seen me be one of the only ones. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SteveN8458 60 Posted February 3, 2022 I still wear a mask, it makes ME feel comfortable. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted February 3, 2022 Its a courtesy if nothing else. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted February 3, 2022 Lowest numbers in ICU since mid July Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 350 Posted February 3, 2022 23 hours ago, Herman said: Most of us know this but still find these numbers pretty shocking. I did read that the numbers are now pretty much the same as a bad flu season Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 350 Posted February 3, 2022 56 minutes ago, Herman said: Mask wearing stayed for quite a while, but as you say, the last couple of visits to the shops has seen me be one of the only ones. Definitely falling in my area too. I was in Tesco today and reckon numbers wearing masks were about 60-70%, recently they have generally been around 90% so very much on the way down. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,585 Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, SteveN8458 said: I still wear a mask, it makes ME feel comfortable. 15 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said: Definitely falling in my area too. I was in Tesco today and reckon numbers wearing masks were about 60-70%, recently they have generally been around 90% so very much on the way down. If you see some of the people in my local Co-op you'd want to wear a Hazmat suit.😀 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, ricardo said: Mask wearing seems to be slowly dropping away if my supermarket experience today is anthing to go by. Denmark still recording high number of cases but has declared the pandemic over. I feel we are at or not far from the same position in the UK. I feel it’s going to gradually be the same attitude elsewhere with our governments. New Zealand has finally woken up and realised zero Covid is just pipe dream. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KernowCanary 214 Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, ricardo said: National 88,171 - 303 rate of decrease of 2.6% 1.33 million tests Local Norwich West rate 891.2 starting to fall again (not updated today) N & N Patients 01-02-2022 56 31-01-2022 53 30-01-2022 52 29-01-2022 59 28-01-2022 62 Vax 1st Dose 12,466 91.1% done Norwich numbers 79.3% Booster rate 56.3% 2nd Dose 27,274 84.3% done 73.9% Booster 39,037 total 37,419,104 65.1% In Hospital 02-02-2022 14,816 01-02-2022 15,252 31-01-2022 15,723 30-01-2022 15,374 29-01-2022 15,102 Below 15,000 patients for the first time in quite a while now. Good stuff. Well done in Denmark for declaring it over, it was a long time ago but for some reason daily figures continued to be published, because it was apparently “in the public’s interest”. July 19 it ended in my book and anyone saying “Freedumbs” to take the p*ss out of people hating this nightmare, deserves a swift kick up the ar$e. It’s even worse than saying “Covidiot”, while anyone who enjoyed all this for two years needs medical help. Edited February 3, 2022 by KernowCanary Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 4, 2022 National 84,053 - 254 rate of decrease of 2.4% 1.22 million tests Local Norwich West rate 934.5 bit of an upward spike again. N & N Patients 01-02-2022 56 31-01-2022 53 30-01-2022 52 29-01-2022 59 28-01-2022 62 Vax (fewer people seeming to bother about getting vax'd) 1st Dose 13,343 91.1% done Norwich numbers 79.4% Booster rate 56.4% 2nd Dose 26,099 84.4% done 73.9% Booster 38,913 total 37,458,017 65.1% In Hospital 03-02-2022 14,634 02-02-2022 14,849 01-02-2022 15,265 31-01-2022 15,734 30-01-2022 15,384 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Essjayess 307 Posted February 4, 2022 It looks like daily new infections has recently begun to stabilise, perhaps around the 80-90k average will be the normal for the forseeable...be that good or bad. Looking at the 1st dose vax total Ricardo i guess 91.1% is a reasonable figure. It may still rise by a few tenths of a digit but it was always the case about 5-10% would not get vaxxed for whatever their reasons. It may also drop a bit to of course if there ae any more age groups to open up, plus last year's Census stats should be out officially in next few months, so a population increase may to decrease the % a bit. Good to see the gradual decrease in hospital numbers to, that, along with deaths will at some point reach a stable period im sure much as new infections has. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,239 Posted February 5, 2022 National 60,578 - 259 rate of decrease of 4.2% 1.22 million tests Local Norwich West rate 899.9 N & N Patients 01-02-2022 56 31-01-2022 53 30-01-2022 52 29-01-2022 59 Vax 1st Dose 14,750 91.1% done Norwich numbers 79.4% Booster rate 56.5% 2nd Dose 28,566 84.4% done 74% Booster 35,469 total 37,493,486 65.2% In Hospital 03-02-2022 14,634 02-02-2022 14,849 01-02-2022 15,265 31-01-2022 15,734 30-01-2022 15,384 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites