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11 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

No, it hasn't - it is quite true that the NHS is 'on its a**e' every winter to a certain extent and in certain areas but this year it is on its a**e to an unprecedented degree and right across the entire service - for example, we have never previously experienced so many critical incidents being declared or had a backlog of operations anything like the current 6m+.

Keep thinking the negative stuff, be positive for once and watch this. Already tried of the phrase “On it’s a*se” already now and the MSM really have been nothing but a hindrance through this whole thing and still continue to do so, making us think the ways they want to about anything these days.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

Keep thinking the negative stuff, be positive for once and watch this. Already tried of the phrase “On it’s a*se” already now and the MSM really have been nothing but a hindrance through this whole thing and still continue to do so, making us think the ways they want to about anything these days.

I'm afraid that you are making a huge and incorrect assumption if you think that what you regard as my negative views have been largely based on what appears in the MSM.

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12 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

No, it hasn't - it is quite true that the NHS is 'on its a**e' every winter to a certain extent and in certain areas but this year it is on its a**e to an unprecedented degree and right across the entire service - for example, we have never previously experienced so many critical incidents being declared or had a backlog of operations anything like the current 6m+.

Just out of interest, what is the acceptable cut off for how many critical incidents there are, how much we need to get the army involved to man beds and assist, how long waiting lists are, how many people spend the whole night in an ambulance in a car park?
 

Presumably you were demanding lock downs in 2018 when the WHO called the hospital situation in the uk a humanitarian crisis and all of the above was happening. So what years were you demanding lockdowns and which ones did you think was an acceptable level of carnage? 

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15 hours ago, Well b back said:

I hope you are not mocking the NHS as lots more would have been f***** without their courage. 
Most have stayed to the bitter end, but believe me 10’s of thousands will be gone in a few months time.

looks like he was mocking the empty gestures given to them (clapping) so in some ways supporting them.

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13 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

The initial lockdown was the correct response but wasn't at the right time - it was way too late which meant that it had to remain in place far longer than would have been necessary if the government had acted more promptly (i.e. when the scientists advised it).

As far as Omicron was concerned, as far as I can recall, there was almost zero demand for actual lockdown from anyone but there was certainly a lot of people who quite rightly IMO wanted to see some of the less onerous restrictions brought in (and once again earlier) in order to take some speed out of the spread - this would have bought more time to get boosters into arms and reduced the build up of pressure on the NHS. It would also, IMO, have meant less carnage amongst our businesses who have effectively been thrown under the bus by the government during what has turned out to be a quasi/unofficial/(?insert own description) lockdown anyway.

Indie sage were calling for us to go back to step 2 tbf... making it illegal to meet others indoors. Not full lockdown but seriously invasive measures.

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31 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Indie sage were calling for us to go back to step 2 tbf... making it illegal to meet others indoors. Not full lockdown but seriously invasive measures.

Anything less than that would have been pointless - we can already see how quickly and easily it spreads. Standing an extra foot away from someone or having only five of your mates round wasn’t going to stop it. 

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36 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Anything less than that would have been pointless - we can already see how quickly and easily it spreads. Standing an extra foot away from someone or having only five of your mates round wasn’t going to stop it. 

Yep, what we did was fair enough, anything more would have been disproportionate with Omicron.

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3 hours ago, Aggy said:

Just out of interest, what is the acceptable cut off for how many critical incidents there are, how much we need to get the army involved to man beds and assist, how long waiting lists are, how many people spend the whole night in an ambulance in a car park?
 

Presumably you were demanding lock downs in 2018 when the WHO called the hospital situation in the uk a humanitarian crisis and all of the above was happening. So what years were you demanding lockdowns and which ones did you think was an acceptable level of carnage? 

I don't think that the annual winter crisis in the NHS has been 'acceptable' for many years  but that doesn't mean that any of them were as bad as the current situation or that in previous years (with the obvious exception of last year) that a lockdown would have been a remotely appropriate or effective response.

And to answer your second silly question, the only year in which I have advocated lockdowns was 2020.

Although if its any consolation to you, I wouldn't have advocated completely removing all restrictions in 2021 until we had driven the virus down to a manageable level, e.g. one where our £30b+ track and trace system might conceivably have started to function properly. This would also have been a considerable help in getting our economy to start functioning properly but neither happened at the time and still haven't.

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21 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I don't think that the annual winter crisis in the NHS has been 'acceptable' for many years  but that doesn't mean that any of them were as bad as the current situation or that in previous years (with the obvious exception of last year) that a lockdown would have been a remotely appropriate or effective response.

And to answer your second silly question, the only year in which I have advocated lockdowns was 2020.

Although if its any consolation to you, I wouldn't have advocated completely removing all restrictions in 2021 until we had driven the virus down to a manageable level, e.g. one where our £30b+ track and trace system might conceivably have started to function properly. This would also have been a considerable help in getting our economy to start functioning properly but neither happened at the time and still haven't.

Its why there has to be committees CM. Different strokes.

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I don't think that the annual winter crisis in the NHS has been 'acceptable' for many years  but that doesn't mean that any of them were as bad as the current situation or that in previous years (with the obvious exception of last year) that a lockdown would have been a remotely appropriate or effective response.

And to answer your second silly question, the only year in which I have advocated lockdowns was 2020.

Although if its any consolation to you, I wouldn't have advocated completely removing all restrictions in 2021 until we had driven the virus down to a manageable level, e.g. one where our £30b+ track and trace system might conceivably have started to function properly. This would also have been a considerable help in getting our economy to start functioning properly but neither happened at the time and still haven't.

Why is the second one a silly question?

If you’re calling for restrictions based on the current position, but never called for restrictions in the past, you must have a very clear grip of the differences between previous winters and winter 21/22. Presumably you’ve read the articles I posted from winter 17/18 and know how horrific things were then but you didn’t think that justified action. 

So given you know how much worse this year is compared to previous years, there must have been a “tipping point” at which you went from thinking no restrictions were required to thinking restrictions were required. So my question is what was the tipping point? 

Edited by Aggy

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25 minutes ago, Aggy said:

If you’re calling for restrictions based on the current position, but never called for restrictions in the past, you must have a very clear grip of the differences between previous winters and winter 21/22. Presumably you’ve read the articles I posted from winter 17/18 and know how horrific things were then but you didn’t think that justified action. 

So given you know how much worse this year is compared to previous years, there must have been a “tipping point” at which you went from thinking no restrictions were required to thinking restrictions were required. So my question is what was the tipping point? 

I'm not sure whether the switch in terminology between 'restrictions' and lockdowns, which is what you originally asked me about, is accidental or deliberate but it is a very significant difference even though many people seem to use the terms interchangeably.

As for 2017/18, and other past winters, I certainly did not say that I thought no action was justified - quite the reverse I said that I thought they were unacceptable but I repeat that didn't mean that the appropriate action was restrictions of the sort required by the pandemic. What was required pre-pandemic was much more straightforward, and indeed well understood at the time, i.e. proper resourcing of the health (and social care) system. We all knew it, the government had promised it would happen, for several consecutive years in fact but these were the usual empty promises and nothing was actually done. IMO this was unacceptable but it had nothing to do with restrictions, or lockdowns.

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11 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I'm not sure whether the switch in terminology between 'restrictions' and lockdowns, which is what you originally asked me about, is accidental or deliberate but it is a very significant difference even though many people seem to use the terms interchangeably.

As for 2017/18, and other past winters, I certainly did not say that I thought no action was justified - quite the reverse I said that I thought they were unacceptable but I repeat that didn't mean that the appropriate action was restrictions of the sort required by the pandemic. What was required pre-pandemic was much more straightforward, and indeed well understood at the time, i.e. proper resourcing of the health (and social care) system. We all knew it, the government had promised it would happen, for several consecutive years in fact but these were the usual empty promises and nothing was actually done. IMO this was unacceptable but it had nothing to do with restrictions, or lockdowns.

Proper resourcing would have stopped the nhs being overwhelmed from covid too, so that doesn’t work. If we had three times as many hospitals, three times as many nurses, doctors, nhs staff etc, three times as many beds and three times as much equipment then hospitals would easily have dealt with covid.

I presumed this would be very simple to answer.

Undeniably, in past years we’ve had large numbers of critical incidents, hospitals without beds, huge numbers of staff off ill, ambulances unable to unload due to lack of beds/staff, extremely long waiting lists, operations cancelled - all the things which are happening this year have happened before. 

You mentioned earlier that these things are happening to a greater degree this year and last year. So what was the precise point that the degree of these things made you think we needed to switch from long term resourcing issues to emergency measures? 

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31 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Proper resourcing would have stopped the nhs being overwhelmed from covid too, so that doesn’t work. If we had three times as many hospitals, three times as many nurses, doctors, nhs staff etc, three times as many beds and three times as much equipment then hospitals would easily have dealt with covid.

I presumed this would be very simple to answer.

Undeniably, in past years we’ve had large numbers of critical incidents, hospitals without beds, huge numbers of staff off ill, ambulances unable to unload due to lack of beds/staff, extremely long waiting lists, operations cancelled - all the things which are happening this year have happened before. 

You mentioned earlier that these things are happening to a greater degree this year and last year. So what was the precise point that the degree of these things made you think we needed to switch from long term resourcing issues to emergency measures? 

Yes, it is - your desperate attempts to draw false equivalences between pre-pandemic, 2020 and now, three quite different scenarios,  simply don't cut it and are in fact quite ridiculous as your first paragraph makes clear.

So your notion of proper resourcing is times three of everything is it?? Although you forgot to mention social care, think that probably needs a times three as well   😂😂

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4 hours ago, Aggy said:

Anything less than that would have been pointless - we can already see how quickly and easily it spreads. Standing an extra foot away from someone or having only five of your mates round wasn’t going to stop it. 

in essence, it wasn't going to be worth the effort it would have taken to basically allow this wave to happen given what we'd have had to have done to do so.

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National

84,429 -  85

rate of decrease of  41.7%           1.3 million tests

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1150.8  down  massively             Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.3

 

N&N in Hospital (seems to have stalled)

11-01-2022                                   111
10-01-2022 115
09-01-2022 110
08-01-2022 112
07-01-2022 103
 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

Vax  

1st Dose           17,700                90.6% done                               Norwich numbers   78.9%        Booster rate 54.7%     

2nd Dose          37,116                 83.4% done                                                                 73%


Booster    61,096    total          36,473,316                63.4%          

In Hospital 

 
14-01-2022                                     19,345
13-01-2022 19,581
12-01-2022 19,763
11-01-2022 19,797
10-01-2022 19,906
09-01-2022 19,106
 
   
   
   
   
   
 
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7 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Yes, it is - your desperate attempts to draw false equivalences between pre-pandemic, 2020 and now, three quite different scenarios,  simply don't cut it and are in fact quite ridiculous as your first paragraph makes clear.

So your notion of proper resourcing is times three of everything is it?? Although you forgot to mention social care, think that probably needs a times three as well   😂😂

There isn’t any desperation and I haven’t drawn any equivalences. I haven’t said it is not worse this year. I’ve just asked you a very simple question which you don’t appear to be able to answer and are now reverting to smiley faces instead of proper discussion.

Do you agree that in past years hospitals announced critical incidents? That ambulances were unable to unload due to unavailable beds? That there were years there weren’t any beds in multiple hospitals and too many staff off ill to treat people? That hundreds of thousands of operations were cancelled?

If you don’t agree then you’re quite clearly mistaken and I’ve already posted the stats on this thread which show all of those things did happen in previous years. 

If you do agree, then surely you can pinpoint how much worse it is this year than those years, and what the tipping point is for needing emergency measures. If you can’t pinpoint that information, then aren’t you just making it up based on nothing? 

As for resourcing, I think you’ve misunderstood. The point is that you are right, resourcing was, and still is, the long term solution. It would have been the best solution for flu and it would have been the best solution for covid. But given that we have been under resourced for decades, why do we need emergency measures such as restrictions this year and 2020 but didn’t in other years when there are critical incidents and not enough beds or staff to treat people? Again, I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m asking what your opinion is actually based on.

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54 minutes ago, Aggy said:

You mentioned earlier that these things are happening to a greater degree this year and last year. So what was the precise point that the degree of these things made you think we needed to switch from long term resourcing issues to emergency measures? 

Forgot to answer this, which is very simple although there has been no switch involved - we have had resourcing issues in healthcare for at least the last decade and we still have them in spades.

But the point at which we needed to invoke emergency measures was very clear - late Feb/early March 2020. Johnson missed the boat of course which meant that the lockdown took much longer to become effective and had to kept in place far longer than should have been necessary, and then repeated this same mistake later in the year not having learnt anything from his mistakes the first time around  - which I think is the answer to the original question you asked before you tried to muddy the waters with a lot of whataboutery.

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28 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

in essence, it wasn't going to be worth the effort it would have taken to basically allow this wave to happen given what we'd have had to have done to do so.

Depends what you mean by “worth”. 

Ties in with the point I’m making with CM. We (as a nation) didn’t think it was “worth” saving thousands who died in (for instance) 2017/18 from a very bad flu year, despite the fact we could have saved many of those had we locked down or even imposed restrictions. Nobody even thought it was “worth” wearing masks then. We didn’t think the effort was worth it in that year it to stop hundreds of thousands of operations being cancelled either, or to protect the thousands of nhs staff who were off ill, or to keep beds open in those hospitals which had to announce critical incidents and didn’t have any beds left.

I think the starting point always has to be that we impose the minimum amount of restrictions you need to stop people (ie; of any demographic) being unable to receive emergency treatment, or to stop a serious risk of death to anyone (ie of any demographic - eg; seatbelts and speed limits help protect everyone from a serious risk of death regardless of age, sex, or anything else).

Covid is a disease that only causes a serious risk of death to a small minority of people - you can’t in my opinion impose blanket legislative restrictions for that (although you can of course encourage people to do the right thing morally and wear masks, work from home where possible etc. in the same way that pre-covid you were encouraged to cover your mouth when sneezing but wouldn’t have been a criminal had you not done so, despite your sneeze potentially being deadly to the old boy on the bus next to you.)

The government obviously gambled (based on “the science”) that we didn’t need anything more than mask wearing to stop hospitals being overwhelmed. So far, it seems the right decision. 
 

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

Do you agree that in past years hospitals announced critical incidents? That ambulances were unable to unload due to unavailable beds? That there were years there weren’t any beds in multiple hospitals and too many staff off ill to treat people? That hundreds of thousands of operations were cancelled?

Of course I agree, I've referred several times to the annual winter crisis which has become a standard feature of the last decade or more. But I've also tried to point out that the fact that all of those things have happened at various points over the last few years doesn't mean that they were equivalent to 2020 & 2022 or necessarily required the same response.

If you do agree, then surely you can pinpoint how much worse it is this year than those years, and what the tipping point is for needing emergency measures. If you can’t pinpoint that information, then aren’t you just making it up based on nothing? 

OK, well I've pinpointed it twice now - early 2020 and the tipping point was surely that we were facing a new virus which WHO had warned in January was potentially the start of a pandemic and confirmed it in early March. This was a virus about which we knew very little beyond the fact that it was much more dangerous and more contagious than seasonal flu with which it was often, wrongly, compared. Worst still we had no vaccine and no treatment for infected patients so it was immediately obvious (even if we ignored what was happenning in China which apparently we did!!) that the only way to avoid a massive death toll, as well as the NHS being completely overwhelmed was to introduce emergency measures to limit the spread of the virus.

None of these issues were present in previous years where I think we have finally agreed that the problems then were the result of significant under-resourcing of the NHS. But at least we knew plently about our regular winter diseases and had treatments to fight them with. So the tipping point IMO was, or at least should have been, as soon as we knew we had a huge problem coming our way and had little real knowledge and no medical tools at all to fight it with.

So, finally this leads on to why 2022 & probably the later part of 2021 is yet another different scenario, because now we have a fair bit of knowledge and we have a significant weapon to combat the virus in the vaccine. So we need yet another different response to the virus and many people seem to think that the current one of pretending that it is no longer a problem because the NHS hasn't been overwhelmed (even though in reality it has been, again) represents success. Trouble is, even if we think that the rate of avoidable deaths, hospitalisations, cancelled appointments etc etc is acceptable, and I guess that is another debate altogether, then I think what they are overlooking is the massive sickness absence hitting businesses, the extremely quiet high streets at what should be the busiest part of the year etc etc, i.e. all the side effects which have been and are continuing to cause our economy to shrink back again. That is not a success and I think it reflects poorly on how we've (by which I mean the Government - the public appear to better informed and better behaved!) chosen to use the knowledge and the tools we've gained over the last two years.

 

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On 16/01/2022 at 19:46, Well b back said:

I am not from the left, and the reason I want him gone is because he’s a serial liar and embarrassment to our Country.

I guess the reason for you changing the reason of the outcome was because you were shot down in flames on a different thread. If it is the same definition with a change of wording as has already been shown, your comments are simply not true. If major means China USA and Russia then the actions taken by one of those because of an ex president which had the worst outcome you supported.

I suspect there are not many people on this thread whatever their views that got as much wrong as they got right, I remember a poster who now mocks those supporting lockdowns that supported lockdowns and told us millions were going to die in the U.K.

I'm not from the left either and like you I want him gone, too. But I am prepared to admit that he is going to get us out of Covid restrictions faster than any other major country, and that is despite all the problems in the early days of the pandemic. The main reason why we are ahead is down to the vaccine task force - bringing in an outsider and allowing them to do their own thing without massive political interference. So that is not directly Boris but he setup the process and picked the winning manager, a bit like Delia picking Webber. So if we criticise what he got wrong we can still be man enough to admit what he got right, and on vaccine rollout, the most important part of pandemic management, he - or at least the vaccine task force (of which you yourself were part) - got it spectacularly right.

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31 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'm not from the left either and like you I want him gone, too. But I am prepared to admit that he is going to get us out of Covid restrictions faster than any other major country, and that is despite all the problems in the early days of the pandemic. The main reason why we are ahead is down to the vaccine task force - bringing in an outsider and allowing them to do their own thing without massive political interference. So that is not directly Boris but he setup the process and picked the winning manager, a bit like Delia picking Webber. So if we criticise what he got wrong we can still be man enough to admit what he got right, and on vaccine rollout, the most important part of pandemic management, he - or at least the vaccine task force (of which you yourself were part) - got it spectacularly right.

He is getting us out of Covid restrictions soon because he wants to improve his current track record by crawling to the British public.

He is on the green mile and he would poke his sister if it suited him. If anyone is fooled by his concessions then they are deluded.

It probably is the right time to get rid of the restrictions but that is not the reason he is doing it.

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'm not from the left either and like you I want him gone, too. But I am prepared to admit that he is going to get us out of Covid restrictions faster than any other major country, and that is despite all the problems in the early days of the pandemic. The main reason why we are ahead is down to the vaccine task force - bringing in an outsider and allowing them to do their own thing without massive political interference. So that is not directly Boris but he setup the process and picked the winning manager, a bit like Delia picking Webber. So if we criticise what he got wrong we can still be man enough to admit what he got right, and on vaccine rollout, the most important part of pandemic management, he - or at least the vaccine task force (of which you yourself were part) - got it spectacularly right.

This is not hindsight please feel free to read my posts about how he did nothing about the variants something Cummings tonight has chosen to make public. 
Many countries vaccine roll outs were as good as ours and many better ( that is not to say ours was not spectacular ) even if they got of to a slow start. Boris has unfortunately completely f***** up the boosters and  his ego will cost the British taxpayers billions over the next few months, with hubs standing empty and millions of vaccine doses wasted. The major countries plan was to vaccinate the world, unfortunately the only countries that attempted that were Russia and China and that was for political gain.

We have recently shut our vaccine production plants leaving Europe to manufacture 2 billion doses a year as well as all the proven treatments. Let’s hope that lie doesn’t bite him on the bum come next winter, and likewise by not vaccinating the world we hope again that that is not counter productive.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Capture.JPG

Yep the vaccines worked as many of us thought, unfortunately though your NHS bashing is not justified. 8 hour waits to get out of ambulances on bad days 18 hour waits in A&E to see a consultant with exhausted workers working constant 12 hour shifts 7 days a week, unfortunately in the NHS we do not get the luxury of 5 day isolation. In addition important operations and diagnosing is being cancelled.

The problems are about to start with a current estimate ( I think it may drop a bit ) of 10% unvaccinated to get sacked, and an estimated 20% aiming to leave. In addition the retired that had their contracts changed to allow them to work unlimited hours will have them changed back to 15 hours a week in March. Of course Boris will tell you we are recruiting 50,000 more nurses, but that will be a net loss of tens of thousands.

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9 hours ago, Well b back said:

Yep the vaccines worked as many of us thought, unfortunately though your NHS bashing is not justified. 8 hour waits to get out of ambulances on bad days 18 hour waits in A&E to see a consultant with exhausted workers working constant 12 hour shifts 7 days a week, unfortunately in the NHS we do not get the luxury of 5 day isolation. In addition important operations and diagnosing is being cancelled.

The problems are about to start with a current estimate ( I think it may drop a bit ) of 10% unvaccinated to get sacked, and an estimated 20% aiming to leave. In addition the retired that had their contracts changed to allow them to work unlimited hours will have them changed back to 15 hours a week in March. Of course Boris will tell you we are recruiting 50,000 more nurses, but that will be a net loss of tens of thousands.

The Government has promised that every single year since 2016 and yet strangely we have less nurses now than we did in 2016.

Much the same picture with doctors.

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15 hours ago, Well b back said:

This is not hindsight please feel free to read my posts about how he did nothing about the variants something Cummings tonight has chosen to make public. 
Many countries vaccine roll outs were as good as ours and many better ( that is not to say ours was not spectacular ) even if they got of to a slow start. Boris has unfortunately completely f***** up the boosters and  his ego will cost the British taxpayers billions over the next few months, with hubs standing empty and millions of vaccine doses wasted. The major countries plan was to vaccinate the world, unfortunately the only countries that attempted that were Russia and China and that was for political gain.

We have recently shut our vaccine production plants leaving Europe to manufacture 2 billion doses a year as well as all the proven treatments. Let’s hope that lie doesn’t bite him on the bum come next winter, and likewise by not vaccinating the world we hope again that that is not counter productive.

 

 

We are really not manufacturing any covid-19 vaccine in the UK any longer Wbb ??

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National

94,432 -  438   the usual wekend under reporting backfill

rate of decrease of  38.9%           1.36 million tests

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1021  down  massively             Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.3

N & N Patients

11-01-2022                                      111
10-01-2022 115
09-01-2022 110
08-01-2022 112
07-01-2022 103
 
   
   
   

 

Vax  

1st Dose           15,748                90.7% done                               Norwich numbers   78.9%        Booster rate 54.8%     

2nd Dose          26,502                 83.4% done                                                                 73%


Booster    73,267    total          36,546,583                63.6%   lots of people seem reluctant to have the booster, plenty available, few customers.

In Hospital 

17-01-2022                                              19,450
16-01-2022 19,224
15-01-2022 19,114
14-01-2022 19,370
13-01-2022 19,598
12-01-2022 19,781

 

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