Corona Virus main thread

[ron obvious 1,502]

 

[SwindonCanary 455]

get your jab   Covid cases: 90% in ICU haven't been boosted Boris Johnson claims (inews.co.uk)

[Herman 9,760]

Coincidence?? The hospital suddenly found a care package for my old man so out he comes!!

 

[A Load of Squit 5,162]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Coincidence?? The hospital suddenly found a care package for my old man so out he comes!!

 

You should mention that his driveway needs levelling.

 

[Aggy 755]

42 minutes ago, Herman said:

Coincidence?? The hospital suddenly found a care package for my old man so out he comes!!

 

 In Greater Manchester just before Christmas there were over 800 people in hospital beds who were medically fit for discharge but who weren’t discharged for reasons like this. That’s just for Greater Manchester, so expand that nationwide and your 4,000 beds are likely easily covered. Can’t discharge though as decades of underfunding social care means we can’t afford to/don’t have suitable places available etc.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Aggy

[The Real Buh 3,432]

We have to be very careful because a lot of people will have a vested interest in making this a disaster whether it is or not.

nightingale hospitals being opened up, just like they were last time. Especially the Welsh and Scottish, who may very well have gone too hard too fast and are under pressure from their voters now, who won’t want to look like the mini dictators that they are.

I don’t believe we’ve ever seen more bogus data and cooked data than right now. It’s prolonged the pandemic with vested interests.

[Mark .Y. 352]

18 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Not sure that is going to doing anything to help the economy which is going to grind even more slowly since with these numbers of cases millions are going to be off work at any given time, many of them in the NHS.

And with hospitalisations rising, despite the vaccines, and NHS doctor and nurse numbers available for work dropping rapidly there is every chance that the NHS is going to break quite soon - in fact I think you'll find there are plenty of people saying it is broken already 🙁

The one thing I would say is that the "wave" from the Omicron variant seems to be very short lived. In SA it appeared to last around three weeks and Ricardo's charts show that the London boroughs that led the wave from around the 10th Dec were reporting falling case numbers by the 22nd (so no real "Christmas effect"). Hopefully that will be the case around the rest of the country and the main UK figure will start falling maybe sometime around 9/10 Jan (allowing that there will be bound to be something of a NYE kick)  

[ricardo 7,385]

No dashboard update until 7.30pm

Someone unplugged the ZX Spectrum.

 

I am hearing that there are 365 deaths over the 25th to 30th Dec that will be back filled due to late reporting so todays figure will look high.

Edited December 30, 2021 by ricardo

[Herman 9,760]

An "interesting" development.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,782]

And so the Covid chaos begins.

Government lost control

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/30/southern-cancels-london-victoria-trains-for-two-weeks-over-covid

[The Real Buh 3,432]

15 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

And so the Covid chaos begins.

Government lost control

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/30/southern-cancels-london-victoria-trains-for-two-weeks-over-covid

Begins?

im sick of this apocalypse p0rn, just relax.

[Mark .Y. 352]

56 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

And so the Covid chaos begins.

Government lost control

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/30/southern-cancels-london-victoria-trains-for-two-weeks-over-covid

As have the Governments of the US, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal.......................

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

22 hours ago, ricardo said:

Nutters out in force

 

 

21 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Just lock them up or better still old fashioned stocks.

Yes definitely, but where were the police in all this - presumably too busy beating up BLM or Climate Change protesters??

[Yellow Fever 3,782]

53 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Begins?

im sick of this apocalypse p0rn, just relax.

 

10 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

As have the Governments of the US, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal.......................

The point is we are now suffering from a disorderly collapse of services - if you had a clear plan in to reduce demand,  you could better control and ameliorate reduced services and not wait until they fall over as per Southern.

The stick your head in the ground and pretend everything will carry on as normal despite - well its an abdication of responsibility.

[Mark .Y. 352]

And all the flights that have been cancelled by various countries........ I guess that is exactly the same ??

[A Load of Squit 5,162]

Thank goodness for foreign aid.

I hear The Manic Street Preachers are also doing a charity single.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/wales-going-lend-england-four-22605923

Wales is going to lend England four million lateral flow tests

[Yellow Fever 3,782]

2 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

And all the flights that have been cancelled by various countries........ I guess that is exactly the same ??

No because some things are clearly beyond any government control - especially overseas travel or the weather -  but maintaining essential internal services is a clear government priority - and internal train connections for people to go to work being one of them as that is what the government still expects people to do. I wonder how many NHS staff used Victoria (yes I know possible alternative routes may be available but the larger point  stands) - developing chaos. 

It won't be the government that causes a London shutdown but no public transport as seems likely at this rate.

It is the unknown and unplanned unknowns into which territory this government has willingly stepped. 

Lack of LTF tests seems to be another unplanned shortcoming of their lack of any thought through policy.

[Mark .Y. 352]

Why are flights being cancelled because of Covid cases clearly beyond government control but not train services ??

I don't see a difference, it is a business that can't carry on doing it's business because of a pandemic.

I live not far from Portsmouth and if I wanted to ravel to London I would take the train to Waterloo, I'm sure there will be some inconveniences but am genuinely fairly sure there will not be any "chaos" caused by this decision.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Mark .Y.

[The Real Buh 3,432]

29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

The point is we are now suffering from a disorderly collapse of services - if you had a clear plan in to reduce demand,  you could better control and ameliorate reduced services and not wait until they fall over as per Southern.

The stick your head in the ground and pretend everything will carry on as normal despite - well its an abdication of responsibility.

I think if we had a billion doctors and nurses there would be a “collapse”

it’s in many peoples vested interests for there to be a “collapse”

I don’t believe anyone at this point. Ordered some LFTs with no hassle as well. It’s all BS. Thinking one side is telling more truth than the other is foolish. It’s a web of lies on all sides.

[Yellow Fever 3,782]

5 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Why are flights being cancelled because of Covid cases clearly beyond government control but not train services ??

I don't see a difference, it is a business that can't carry on doing it's business because of a pandemic.

I live not far from Portsmouth and if I wanted to ravel to London I would take the train to Waterloo, I'm sure there will be some inconveniences but am genuinely fairly sure there will not be any "chaos" caused by this decision.

Chaos is a word the local London rags are using - 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/southern-rail-cancels-all-services-london-victoria-covid-isolation-b974307.html

What it is is the start of a potential runaway snowball of unplanned events.

I prefer orderly closures if possible with a modicum of preplanning and thought. Then again this has been predicted for a few days...., 

[Mark .Y. 352]

Good choice of words........... "the London rags"............. I pay as much attention to it/them as I do to the Daily Express telling me how the EU is imploding. And the truth is, the article says it will be chaos on New Years Eve, doesn't suggest any other times.

The scientific data clearly suggests that cases in the early risers in London boroughs were falling from around the 22nd December so, and I hope it is true, things should soon start to return to normal in the capital. Well, as normal as possible 🙂 

Happy to hold my hands up and admit I was wrong if they don't, but I can only go off what data is available at this time. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Mark .Y.

[ricardo 7,385]

Ive made my will and there should be time for a few last minute goodbyes.

[ricardo 7,385]

Dashboard update put back to 8.30pm

They've lost some beads off the Abacus

[Van wink 2,994]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1

Not Peer reviewed but first research showing Omicron doesn't avoid T cell response which may well help explain observations about infections and relative low levels of serious illness.

[ricardo 7,385]

National

189,213 - 332    5 days backfilling from Xmas holiday under reporting     

rate of increase of  45.1%            rate of increase up   1.5 million tests

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1341.2          1st day of decline       Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.2

N&N in Hospital

21-12-2021	19
20-12-2021	22
19-12-2021	23

 

 

Vax     

1st Dose      32,607              90% done                               Norwich numbers   78.4%        Booster rate 48.4%     

2nd Dose     43,766              82.4% done                                                               72.1%

Booster    435,293     total          33,527,184                58.3%          

In Hospital   25/33% incidental

29-12-2021	11,898
28-12-2021	10,870
27-12-2021	9,711
26-12-2021	8,707
25-12-2021	8,299
24-12-2021	8,495

[ricardo 7,385]

France   206k

Spain    161k

Italy       127k

Ireland and Denmark  220k-240k UK pop equivalent

Surely these must all be Omicron

Germany, Netherland, Belgium still mostly Delta. Perhaps their very recent big Delta wave has given some temporary immunity or caused greater restrictive behaviour.. The same seems to apply to Eastern Europe at the moment. 

[Yellow Fever 3,782]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Ive made my will and there should be time for a few last minute goodbyes.

Extremely pleased to see a 'sensitivity 'analysis in there. No doubt that won't get reported/understood.

"Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide transmission and replication of SARS- COV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, has resulted in the opportunity for multiple mutations to occur that may alter the virus transmission characteristics, the effectiveness of vaccines and the severity of disease upon infection. The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was first reported to the WHO by South Africa on 24 November 2021 and was declared a variant of concern by the WHO on 26 November 2021. The variant was first detected in the UK on 27 November 2021 and has since been reported in a number of countries globally where it is frequently associated with rapid increase in cases. Here we present analyses of UK data showing the earliest signatures of the Omicron variant and mathematical modelling that uses the UK data to simulate the potential impact of this variant in the UK. In order to account for the uncertainty in transmission advantage, vaccine escape and severity at the time of writing, we carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of these variant characteristics on future risk."

[The Real Buh 3,432]

13 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Good choice of words........... "the London rags"............. I pay as much attention to it/them as I do to the Daily Express telling me how the EU is imploding. And the truth is, the article says it will be chaos on New Years Eve, doesn't suggest any other times.

The scientific data clearly suggests that cases in the early risers in London boroughs were falling from around the 22nd December so, and I hope it is true, things should soon start to return to normal in the capital. Well, as normal as possible 🙂 

Happy to hold my hands up and admit I was wrong if they don't, but I can only go off what data is available at this time. 

Funny how it’s heavily unionised entities with issues with staff absences due to covid isn’t it? 
 

Haven’t heard of a staffing crisis at Aldi yet

[The Real Buh 3,432]

11 hours ago, ricardo said:

France   206k

Spain    161k

Italy       127k

Ireland and Denmark  220k-240k UK pop equivalent

Surely these must all be Omicron

Germany, Netherland, Belgium still mostly Delta. Perhaps their very recent big Delta wave has given some temporary immunity or caused greater restrictive behaviour.. The same seems to apply to Eastern Europe at the moment. 

All those restrictions on france and still over 200k cases…

zero justification for more restrictions here. We are winning this. I know a lot of people are determined we aren’t and will move heaven and earth to create crisis but we are winning this.

[Herman 9,760]

"National

189,213 - 332    5 days backfilling from Xmas holiday under reporting     

rate of increase of  45.1%            rate of increase up   1.5 million tests"

"We're winning this."

 

We ain't winning anything yet, no country is. Sticking your head in the sand doesn't help. Staying cautious without locking yourself away and we can work through this.