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4 hours ago, 1902 said:

In news from across the chanel. Primary schools to close in Belgium and Secondary to be heavily restricted by the looks of things. Huge clusters in primary schools (where kids aren't vaccinated) have been spreading to the wider family apparently. One Flemish primary just reported 25% of staff and students infected.

I see the regular figures and predictions and the same is happening / about to happen in our primary schools. Only difference will be our schools won’t close.

35 - 49 is the group to watch.

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Following the science is actually easy as all the day sets have all sorts of caveats and error bars and explicit assumptions. What is not following the science is to pick and choose what you accept and what you don't to suit or colour any particular narrative. That's politics.

Yes, I do believe some posters on here reminded others of that when they refused to accept that their views were actually personal/political opinions about risk rather than absolute fact. Likewise when they mentioned infections almost daily but chose not to mention hospitalisations, death or severe illness for about three months.

Edited by Aggy

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  • To date, we have not identified any infections compatible with the new Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among our survey participants; we will continue to monitor this variant and will report estimates if the Omicron variant becomes more prevalent among the population.
     

That’s interesting as I mentioned earlier in SA Omicron has not had to compete with Delta as there is little circulating. There is so much delta around the western world that although it is likely lots more transmissible can it out perform delta head on.

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24 minutes ago, Well b back said:

 

  • To date, we have not identified any infections compatible with the new Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among our survey participants; we will continue to monitor this variant and will report estimates if the Omicron variant becomes more prevalent among the population.
     

That’s interesting as I mentioned earlier in SA Omicron has not had to compete with Delta as there is little circulating. There is so much delta around the western world that although it is likely lots more transmissible can it out perform delta head on.

Is there any reason they can’t both be rampant? (Probably already mentioned earlier in thread but I haven’t seen).

Id be surprised if there wasn’t some omicron floating about in the uk but would assume just not enough (yet) to get picked up by the samples given they presumably only take samples from a fairly small percentage of people.

Edited by Aggy

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

 

  • To date, we have not identified any infections compatible with the new Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) among our survey participants; we will continue to monitor this variant and will report estimates if the Omicron variant becomes more prevalent among the population.
     

That’s interesting as I mentioned earlier in SA Omicron has not had to compete with Delta as there is little circulating. There is so much delta around the western world that although it is likely lots more transmissible can it out perform delta head on.

Yeh indeed WBB, there are so many difference between the situation in Northern Europe and SA, it would be most unwise to assume the the variant will progress in the same way. 

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National

50,584 - 143

rate of increase of  1%      Hmmm almost flat again

Local

Norwich   West rate             233.6      Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

    

N&N Patients  (falling)

   
 
30-11-2021                                   20
29-11-2021 23
28-11-2021 24
27-11-2021 26
26-11-2021 27
 
   
   
   
   

Vax     

1st Dose      25,848              88.8% done                               Norwich numbers   77.6% 

2nd Dose     30,976              80.8% done                                                                  70.7%


Booster     420,910     total          19,436,885                 33.8%

In Hospital  

02-12-2021                                   7,373
01-12-2021 7,321
30-11-2021 7,652
29-11-2021 7,645
28-11-2021 7,420
27-11-2021 7,395
26-11-2021 7,550

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7 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

image.png.34d560823cb13eb08877198863ebc64e.png

Don’t come onto this thread and start your bull****e, it’s bad enough on the Brexit thread. Leave your trolling off this thread.

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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

50,584 - 143

rate of increase of  1%      Hmmm almost flat again

Local

Norwich   West rate             233.6      Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

    

N&N Patients  (falling)

   
 
30-11-2021                                   20
29-11-2021 23
28-11-2021 24
27-11-2021 26
26-11-2021 27
 
   
   
   
   

Vax     

1st Dose      25,848              88.8% done                               Norwich numbers   77.6% 

2nd Dose     30,976              80.8% done                                                                  70.7%


Booster     420,910     total          19,436,885                 33.8%

In Hospital  

02-12-2021                                   7,373
01-12-2021 7,321
30-11-2021 7,652
29-11-2021 7,645
28-11-2021 7,420
27-11-2021 7,395
26-11-2021 7,550

Still very encouraging numbers in hospitals and deaths, it would be good to see the flu deaths this year in comparison as it’s a very dangerous strain.

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17 minutes ago, Indy said:

Still very encouraging numbers in hospitals and deaths, it would be good to see the flu deaths this year in comparison as it’s a very dangerous strain.

Haven’t heard much about flu after suggestions it would be very bad. Presumably people are in hospital with it but I’ve not seen numbers. 

Much of the recent discussion re covid jabs / compulsory vaccination / vaccine passports etc could (should?) be applied to flu jabs just as much. Difficult to say we should have rules for one and not the other really when they’re both contributing to hospitals being overwhelmed and are both ultimately avoided in the same way (minimise spreading).

 

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17 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Haven’t heard much about flu after suggestions it would be very bad. Presumably people are in hospital with it but I’ve not seen numbers. 

Much of the recent discussion re covid jabs / compulsory vaccination / vaccine passports etc could (should?) be applied to flu jabs just as much. Difficult to say we should have rules for one and not the other really when they’re both contributing to hospitals being overwhelmed and are both ultimately avoided in the same way (minimise spreading).

 

Some data here.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season#history

Doesn't look like it's hitting, at least yet.

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43 minutes ago, Indy said:

Still very encouraging numbers in hospitals and deaths, it would be good to see the flu deaths this year in comparison as it’s a very dangerous strain.

Here is a BMJ paper comparing COVID and flu. You maybe shocked and the figures are currently a lot worse as we are closing in on a 150 deaths per day. 
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2514

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23 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Here is a BMJ paper comparing COVID and flu. You maybe shocked and the figures are currently a lot worse as we are closing in on a 150 deaths per day. 
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2514

I don’t think he was comparing covid and flu. Just querying how many people currently in hospital/dying with flu - something else putting a strain on the nhs currently (and most winters).

25 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thanks - appears from the exec summary that flu and other respiratory infections remain low but have seen some increase in the last week. See where we end up! Only 79 per cent of people over 65 have had a flu jab.

Edit: have any other countries introduced flu jab passport type schemes?

Edited by Aggy

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5 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I don’t think he was comparing covid and flu. Just querying how many people currently in hospital/dying with flu - something else putting a strain on the nhs currently (and most winters).

Thanks - appears from the exec summary that flu and other respiratory infections remain low but have seen some increase in the last week. See where we end up! Only 79 per cent of people over 65 have had a flu jab.

Edit: have any other countries introduced flu jab passport type schemes?

Yes, and true also to say that peak can come late and the growth to peak can be quick. We are in a good place right now but unfortunately that can change.

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Breaking news of Ireland introducing tough measures tonight.

This Twitter poster also has tabular info on changes of rates of towns in A-Z order etc (including Norwich increases). Copying purely for the data and interest rather than comment. Still, there is a lot to develop and understand.

Obviously lots of worry in the Republic at the moment.

 

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13 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

From what I have seen Omicron is assessed as being around 2.5 times more likely to cause reinfection than other variants. However, numbers appear to be really tiny so the effect may still be very marginal.

If I were a gambler I'd say that the breadth of the prior infection response combined with the depth of response from boosters will more than hold up against Omicron. 

 

pretty much with you on this, though I can see it being a bit more of a problem with schools potentially. So long as our booster campaign gets to the JCVI 1-9 in equally large numbers (like 95%) then I think the hospitals will primarily be fine (other than all the other non covid issues they have had for many years now).

Weirdly enough, I found the whole "3 fold reduction in prior immunity from infection" thing quite encouraging as it potentially means less of a hit in other areas. Clearly this is from a selfish point of view as it probably spells disaster for countries with poor vaccination rates particularly in their older populace. Surely now we know even more so that we need to get this vaccine round the world as quick as possible.

I wonder what the next big variant will do. Are we just going to do this dance forever or will we ever get to a point where we have high confidence in our vaccines and treatments so much that we can just put it to the back of our minds like we do with the yearly flu outbreaks?

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Thanks for the links guys, like last year flu deaths would be much higher as most are down Covid, so it does make me question if Covid hadn’t killed off a lot of vulnerable people flu possibly would have.

But wearing masks and good hygiene certainly help combat flu too.

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11 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

pretty much with you on this, though I can see it being a bit more of a problem with schools potentially. So long as our booster campaign gets to the JCVI 1-9 in equally large numbers (like 95%) then I think the hospitals will primarily be fine (other than all the other non covid issues they have had for many years now).

Weirdly enough, I found the whole "3 fold reduction in prior immunity from infection" thing quite encouraging as it potentially means less of a hit in other areas. Clearly this is from a selfish point of view as it probably spells disaster for countries with poor vaccination rates particularly in their older populace. Surely now we know even more so that we need to get this vaccine round the world as quick as possible.

I wonder what the next big variant will do. Are we just going to do this dance forever or will we ever get to a point where we have high confidence in our vaccines and treatments so much that we can just put it to the back of our minds like we do with the yearly flu outbreaks?

I think the treatments are getting better and certainly we don’t bat an eyelid at 40,000 deaths from flu in previous years, so if Covid death numbers keep to around 750 a week, then it’s in the same bracket now. It’s a mad world where with social media and the global network it’s made Covid a focus which is going to be hard to shake off into the background.

Agree about global vaccinations, far too slow.

Edited by Indy
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2 hours ago, Indy said:

Thanks for the links guys, like last year flu deaths would be much higher as most are down Covid, so it does make me question if Covid hadn’t killed off a lot of vulnerable people flu possibly would have.

But wearing masks and good hygiene certainly help combat flu too.

A strange one with flu as from my understanding of the charts in the link BB provided (and there were lots, many of which I skipped over so I may have completely misinterpreted!) it doesn’t even look like there’s much of it floating around - low infections. Not a bad thing of course, but quite strange. Although isn’t unusual for peak flu season to be in the January/Feb parts of winter rather than Nov/Dec so that might change.

I was half expecting to see quite a few flu infections but not many deaths, which would have suggested people were dying from covid ‘before’ flu. But that doesn’t appear to be the case.

At the moment doesn’t look like there is much flu at all. If that’s a result of masks and social distancing then I suppose there are two ways of looking at it. Of course its good that it is helping with one deadly infection. But, if masks are so effective against flu as to almost eliminate it, why are covid cases still so high - is it the case that covid is “too strong” for masks and social distancing to be of much use?

However, I suspect the low flu infections are less to do with masks and social distancing and more just that flu hasn’t yet really ‘arrived’. 

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2 hours ago, Indy said:

I think the treatments are getting better and certainly we don’t bat an eyelid at 40,000 deaths from flu in previous years, so if Covid death numbers keep to around 750 a week, then it’s in the same bracket now. It’s a mad world where with social media and the global network it’s made Covid a focus which is going to be hard to shake off into the background.

Agree about global vaccinations, far too slow.

30k deaths from influenza is an exceptionally bad year. Usually under 25k. I don't know where you get that 40k from. If UK keeps losing 150 per day, it's annualized 50k.

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27 minutes ago, Upo said:

30k deaths from influenza is an exceptionally bad year. Usually under 25k. I don't know where you get that 40k from. If UK keeps losing 150 per day, it's annualized 50k.

A bad year as this one is forecast is around 40,000 attributed, but it does vary year to year depending in the strain of flu. Up to 2000 we had a spate of cold winters where over 50k were attributed to flu connections, with this years strain and if we get a cold hit we can hit 40k. If you look at the charts as Aggy pointed out last year and this year flu deaths are very low and some who died of Covid might well have died from flu. I’m not sure why your so hooked up on Covid, you’re really a bit of a doom merchant. The vaccines are really effective, the treatments are getting better and even with the worst mutation the drug manufacturers have the ability to tweak them! It’s because of people who love a drama that keep full focus on the negative as positive doesn’t have the impact……

Edited by Indy

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

A strange one with flu as from my understanding of the charts in the link BB provided (and there were lots, many of which I skipped over so I may have completely misinterpreted!) it doesn’t even look like there’s much of it floating around - low infections. Not a bad thing of course, but quite strange. Although isn’t unusual for peak flu season to be in the January/Feb parts of winter rather than Nov/Dec so that might change.

I was half expecting to see quite a few flu infections but not many deaths, which would have suggested people were dying from covid ‘before’ flu. But that doesn’t appear to be the case.

At the moment doesn’t look like there is much flu at all. If that’s a result of masks and social distancing then I suppose there are two ways of looking at it. Of course its good that it is helping with one deadly infection. But, if masks are so effective against flu as to almost eliminate it, why are covid cases still so high - is it the case that covid is “too strong” for masks and social distancing to be of much use?

However, I suspect the low flu infections are less to do with masks and social distancing and more just that flu hasn’t yet really ‘arrived’. 

Yes I’m not sure it has either, but no one mentions flu! 😉

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18 minutes ago, Indy said:

Yes I’m not sure it has either, but no one mentions flu! 😉

The short answer is the R0 of Covid (even the original)  is very much higher than than that of 'flu'. All else follows.

Many similar discussions - this one popped up instantly

https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

Edited by Yellow Fever
https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The short answer is the R0 of Covid (even the original)  is very much higher than than that of 'flu'. All else follows.

Many similar discussions - this one popped up instantly

https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/

Indeed, like I have been saying at what point will Covid be viewed at the same level as flu? Before Covid not many people talked about flu, no one wore masks. As I’ve said if the death per year of Covid stays around 50k it will be the norm, there’s always people who won’t let the Covid drama go nor learn to live with Covid and the death it’ll bring as sad as any death is. But there’s going to have an acceptance at some point, isn’t there?

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8 minutes ago, Indy said:

Indeed, like I have been saying at what point will Covid be viewed at the same level as flu? Before Covid not many people talked about flu, no one wore masks. As I’ve said if the death per year of Covid stays around 50k it will be the norm, there’s always people who won’t let the Covid drama go nor learn to live with Covid and the death it’ll bring as sad as any death is. But there’s going to have an acceptance at some point, isn’t there?

Indy - its the IF.

IF we had a Flu variant that was as severe as Covid (it isn't) and IF it was as transmissible (it isn't - more easy to isolate and prevent - the masks etc.) then almost certainly we would have the same restrictions.  Indeed pre Covid the government pandemic plans were based on such a flu variant!

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-pandemic-preparedness/annex-a-about-exercise-cygnus

Discussions on flu vs Covid have been done to death far far too many times. Covid simply is far far more of problem today which is why governments across the world of all persuasions treat it with the respect it currently deserves. 

Yes one day in perhaps 3 to 5 years (typical for pandemics) we will have learnt globally to live with it and its offspring.

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40 minutes ago, Indy said:

Indeed, like I have been saying at what point will Covid be viewed at the same level as flu? Before Covid not many people talked about flu, no one wore masks. As I’ve said if the death per year of Covid stays around 50k it will be the norm, there’s always people who won’t let the Covid drama go nor learn to live with Covid and the death it’ll bring as sad as any death is. But there’s going to have an acceptance at some point, isn’t there?

There is definitely some hypocrisy in principle if we allow death from one preventable cause (flu) and not another ( corona). Of course, quantitatively you can make the argument that flu is not nearly as bad as corona and corona is simply intolerable. Yellow Fever made a good post there. Personally I'd make the argument that we should prevent both.

Below is development of average life expectancy in UK starting from 1765. Progress goes against convention. We have come to expect more from life than resignation to misery and suffering. Yet that is what we're being asked now. We have the means to do better. Much better.

1325109487_lifeexpectancyUK1765to2020.jpg.4b5b06c8d6b390071bb430dd07407c27.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Indy - its the IF.

IF we had a Flu variant that was as severe as Covid (it isn't) and IF it was as transmissible (it isn't - more easy to isolate and prevent - the masks etc.) then almost certainly we would have the same restrictions.  Indeed pre Covid the government pandemic plans were based on such a flu variant!

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-pandemic-preparedness/annex-a-about-exercise-cygnus

Discussions on flu vs Covid have been done to death far far too many times. Covid simply is far far more of problem today which is why governments across the world of all persuasions treat it with the respect it currently deserves. 

Yes one day in perhaps 3 to 5 years (typical for pandemics) we will have learnt globally to live with it and its offspring.

Agree, but I wasn’t comparing the two, I was making the point we don’t even flinch at the flu, what point do we do the same with Covid? The numbers of hospitalisation and deaths at the current levels is very much less than some were forecasting, we have a number of viral treatments in conjunction with vaccines and let’s not beat round the bush it’s predominantly those with other life threatening issues who are susceptible from both. Everyone know Covid is far more of a threat, but I think there’s going to be a point where it’s go as we are and there will be deaths, that’s the way of the world. 

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National

42,848 - 127

rate of increase of  2.5%     

Local

Norwich   West rate             259.6      slight rise, low numbers             Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

    

N&N Patients  (falling)

   
 
30-11-2021                                   20
29-11-2021 23
28-11-2021 24
27-11-2021 26
26-11-2021 27
 
   
   
   
   

Vax     

1st Dose      22,828              88.8% done                               Norwich numbers   77.6% 

2nd Dose     28,945              80.8% done                                                                  70.8%


Booster     372,577     total          19,809,442                 34.4%

In Hospital  

02-12-2021                                       7,373
01-12-2021 7,321
30-11-2021 7,652
29-11-2021 7,645
28-11-2021 7,420
27-11-2021 7,395
26-11-2021 7,550
Edited by ricardo
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1 hour ago, Indy said:

Agree, but I wasn’t comparing the two, I was making the point we don’t even flinch at the flu, what point do we do the same with Covid? The numbers of hospitalisation and deaths at the current levels is very much less than some were forecasting, we have a number of viral treatments in conjunction with vaccines and let’s not beat round the bush it’s predominantly those with other life threatening issues who are susceptible from both. Everyone know Covid is far more of a threat, but I think there’s going to be a point where it’s go as we are and there will be deaths, that’s the way of the world.

I expect if you travelled back in time 60 or 70 years before flu jabs were ‘a thing’ people wouldn’t be as dismissive of ‘just flu’ as some on this thread are. A lot of people who have been lucky enough to live through the least risky period of human history ever who appear to have forgotten that humans die of things.

 

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