Corona Virus main thread

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

But surely if we have a new threat, why the hell aren’t the coach company insisting that the pensioners wear a mask and also, why aren’t the pensioners themselves wearing them knowing what could happen if this hits in the numbers we expect? I can’t understand that humans are so thick they need to be told! Christ I went to the Rocky Horror Picture show last last month and we wore our masks through the show! Not rocket science but these will be the people to main the most once we go into another lock down!

You've answered that already. Even for the 'delta' threat. They are 'thick' and need telling.

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I believe that once the pandemic is over ( see cos thread ) the vaccines will be developed against cancers ect, don’t think that’s changed

Yes - that was my way into this 😉

 

[Indy 3,297]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

You've answered that already. Even for the 'delta' threat. They are 'thick' and need telling.

Sad that even with the threat of death people can’t think for themselves! So be it.

[ricardo 7,384]

ZOE has now topped out.

We will see lower numbers this week.

[ricardo 7,384]

Deaths have been declining for some time.

[Well b back 3,201]

And Javid told us this morning loads of SA flights came in with no testing, bye, bye Delta.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59451103

[KernowCanary 214]

2 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Perhaps I was overly harsh, but this government has a track record of putting off tough decisions by introducing measure piecemeal. And I do not understand why the UK does not have a general requirement for a vaccine passport for admittance to public places etc. It has been shown to work in other European countries that are just as keen in an ideal world on personal freedom as the UK is supposed to be.

They’ll only use East Germany era comparisons to say why not to have vaccine passports.

Phrases about Horses Bolting really are getting on my ****.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

I did recently learn that the smallpox vaccine was mandated back 170 odd years ago so it's not unprecedented

[Indy 3,297]

Initial reports are that the new variant has milder symptoms than previous variants, hopefully as predicted more transmissible but less threatening! 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

[KernowCanary 214]

18 minutes ago, Indy said:

Initial reports are that the new variant has milder symptoms than previous variants, hopefully as predicted more transmissible but less threatening! 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

Was about to post this after trawling Twitter under “variant scaremongering”, and found a tweet explaining how a South African scientist said it’s mainly mild symptoms.

[ricardo 7,384]

24 minutes ago, Indy said:

Initial reports are that the new variant has milder symptoms than previous variants, hopefully as predicted more transmissible but less threatening! 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

extremely mild cases.

 

[Aggy 755]

43 minutes ago, Indy said:

Initial reports are that the new variant has milder symptoms than previous variants, hopefully as predicted more transmissible but less threatening! 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

Assuming this is the one I saw earlier interviewing the doctor who first noticed the new variant, pretty sure she said she hadn’t admitted anyone out of all the patients she’d seen with the new variant. 

[Aggy 755]

4 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

the problem with that last line is that we will basically forever be in this scenario long after Omicron does what it's going to do. I guess it's a little bit like the war on terror. There is always the fear of another massive terrorist attack in the same way there is probably already another variant even worse than Omicron manifesting.

It's about trying to be preemptive to these sorts of things whilst trying to keep going as best as possible.

Sure we could go nuts and go back to full lockdown but that would be incredibly destructive and may well achieve nothing anyway. Same to a lesser extent with other measures. There are always trade offs to consider.

You’d imagine there will be panic around this one, but if (hopefully, ‘when’) it is shown to be more infectious but actually no more or even less deadly, then next time something similar comes along there won’t be the same panic for this reason. We find new variants of shed loads of infectious diseases all the time - when covid becomes just another one it will soon quieten down.

[Aggy 755]

30 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

Was about to post this after trawling Twitter under “variant scaremongering”, and found a tweet explaining how a South African scientist said it’s mainly mild symptoms.

From your posts yesterday, I’d definitely get off Twitter if you find this thread doing your head in! At least on here there are only about five people who would enjoy living in perpetual lockdown - on Twitter there’s whole groups of them! Usually arguing with anti vaxxers who reckon the vaccine gave their elderly grandma (who has smoked since the age of 15) lung cancer or something similar…

Edited November 28, 2021 by Aggy

[ricardo 7,384]

National

37,681 -  51

rate of increase of 6.4%       should fall this coming week if indicators are correct

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             294.2     fluctuating but low numbers   Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

 

     

N&N Patients

23-11-2021             28 22-11-2021 27 21-11-2021 25 20-11-2021 24

Vax     

1st Dose      22,304              88.5% done                               Norwich numbers   77.5% 

2nd Dose     31,679              80.5% done                                                                  70.5%

Booster     450,480     total          17,581,331                 30.6%

In Hospital  

25-11-2021	7,633
24-11-2021	7,654
23-11-2021	7,903
22-11-2021	8,123
21-11-2021	8,029
20-11-2021	7,933

[Van wink 2,994]

51 minutes ago, Aggy said:

You’d imagine there will be panic around this one, but if (hopefully, ‘when’) it is shown to be more infectious but actually no more or even less deadly, then next time something similar comes along there won’t be the same panic for this reason. We find new variants of shed loads of infectious diseases all the time - when covid becomes just another one it will soon quieten down.

The doctor was on Marr this morning, certainly reporting mild symptoms from this infection, nothing substantive on age profile of those affective but there seems to be a presumption, rightly or wrongly, that these were younger patients which if true doesn't really help us with implications for the "tinder" as Ricardo refers.  There however is no advantage in a virus causing serious harm to its host, hopefully this mutation will know that.

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The doctor was on Marr this morning, certainly reporting mild symptoms from this infection, nothing substantive on age profile of those affective but there seems to be a presumption, rightly or wrongly, that these were younger patients which if true doesn't really help us with implications for the "tinder" as Ricardo refers.  There however is no advantage in a virus causing serious harm to its host, hopefully this mutation will know that.

 

 

Yes VW - Caution is certainly warranted at present and not to spin either way as to mild or severe. Not enough data yet.

Appalled at the number of Covid positives on the Dutch flights from SA Amsterdam. That's frankly culpable. I would expect similar numbers on fights from SA elsewhere including here too?

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes VW - Caution is certainly warranted at present and not to spin either way as to mild or severe. Not enough data yet.

Appalled at the number of Covid positives on the Dutch flights from SA Amsterdam. That's frankly culpable. I would expect similar numbers on fights from SA elsewhere including here too?

Its already establishing itself here I suspect and spreading quite happily. High incidence of covid positives in Richmond apparently, oddly England played South Africa at HQ last weekend. Cardiff rugby are in SA and they are now reported as having two covid cases, one is Omicron. 

[Yellow Fever 3,771]

5 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Its already establishing itself here I suspect and spreading quite happily. High incidence of covid positives in Richmond apparently, oddly England played South Africa at HQ last weekend. Cardiff rugby are in SA and they are now reported as having two covid cases, one is Omicron. 

Sounds certainly like it out competes Delta as a minimum.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

That's not negative just sensible.

 

[sonyc 5,511]

21 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Its already establishing itself here I suspect and spreading quite happily. High incidence of covid positives in Richmond apparently, oddly England played South Africa at HQ last weekend. Cardiff rugby are in SA and they are now reported as having two covid cases, one is Omicron. 

Very interesting and cannot be a mere coincidence? 

One thing that makes me feel a bit more encouraged is the note I've read about the amount of mutations within the Omicron variant "appearing to destabilise the virus" (see attached link). The hope too is that Delta remains dominant because we already know that vaccines are effective in this instance.

As for the media reaction (some rather OTT) then I suppose that 'moronic' is a suitable anagram of the variant.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-28/omicron-pretty-mild-so-far-south-african-health-expert-says

 

Edited November 28, 2021 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

17 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Very interesting and cannot be a mere coincidence? 

One thing that makes me feel a bit more encouraged is the note I've read about the amount of mutations within the Omicron variant "appearing to destabilise the virus" (see attached link). The hope too is that Delta remains dominant because we already know that vaccines are effective in this instance.

As for the media reaction (some rather OTT) then I suppose that 'moronic' is a suitable anagram of the variant.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-28/omicron-pretty-mild-so-far-south-african-health-expert-says

 

A great outcome would be that Omicron is more transmissible and far less clinically harmful. It’s possible that’s the case. 🤞

[Well b back 3,201]

1 minute ago, Van wink said:

A great outcome would be that Omicron is more transmissible and far less clinically harmful. It’s possible that’s the case. 🤞

Indeed absolutely nobody knows how mild or severe it will be so these quotes from these experts are nonsense and people will just take the one that fits their agenda. 
It is estimated that it will be another 2 weeks before we know, as South Africa have a very low age average.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

You’d imagine there will be panic around this one, but if (hopefully, ‘when’) it is shown to be more infectious but actually no more or even less deadly, then next time something similar comes along there won’t be the same panic for this reason. We find new variants of shed loads of infectious diseases all the time - when covid becomes just another one it will soon quieten down.

it's exactly the same panic as when Delta came out, and that Brazillian one (Lambda?).

Vaccines weren't going to work, cases were going to go out of control, we'd seen it proper mess up India and that was going to be us back to square 1.

Sure Delta hasn't been ideal but we've still managed to deal with it not overwhelming things just fine without the need to resort to extreme measures. 

I suspect this will be much of a muchness and it will become clear just how important getting jab 3 to the elderly is. Who knows though, we haven't see it cause mass sickness and death anywhere yet so stay patient and don't panic.

[Well b back 3,201]

Masks in school year 7 and above now needed

[Upo 91]

46 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sounds certainly like it out competes Delta as a minimum.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

That's not negative just sensible.

 

Well said. Omicron mops the floor with Delta and that is all anyone needs to know with regards to its transmissibility. 

 

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Indeed absolutely nobody knows how mild or severe it will be so these quotes from these experts are nonsense and people will just take the one that fits their agenda. 
It is estimated that it will be another 2 weeks before we know, as South Africa have a very low age average.

 

Here's the source that is being misquoted and used as fodder for the compulsive denialism. It does not sound at all like symptoms are milder than other variants. Most delta cases were mild. It took a long time before we knew what was happening in India.

 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/south-african-doctor-raised-alarm-omicron-variant-says-symptoms/

 

[Upo 91]

The problem with extrapolating from Africa or Southeast Asia is that their population is very young and background mortality rate is high. If omicron was 10 times more virulent, we would know it, but it would still mean just 1% of those under 30 (median age in typical African country is <30) would die. I doubt it's 10 times more dangerous. But it could be 5 times deadlier and we wouldn't know it for 2-3 weeks.

It could be half as deadly as Wuhan strain and we'd be completely wiped out if it spreads like measles. And it could be worse.

[ricardo 7,384]

3 minutes ago, Upo said:

 

It could be half as deadly as Wuhan strain and we'd be completely wiped out if it spreads like measles. And it could be worse.

We are into " If my Aunt had balls" territory there.

[Upo 91]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Very interesting and cannot be a mere coincidence? 

One thing that makes me feel a bit more encouraged is the note I've read about the amount of mutations within the Omicron variant "appearing to destabilise the virus" (see attached link). The hope too is that Delta remains dominant because we already know that vaccines are effective in this instance.

As for the media reaction (some rather OTT) then I suppose that 'moronic' is a suitable anagram of the variant.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-28/omicron-pretty-mild-so-far-south-african-health-expert-says

 

 

It is completely irrelevant to current situation how "destabilized" the virus is. So far, every VOC has been deadlier than the previous one. In fact, there is not a single major strain that is milder than its predecessors. It's worse all the way.

[ricardo 7,384]

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa says no new restrictions will be imposed "at this stage" after Omicron discovery

[Upo 91]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

We are into " If my Aunt had balls" territory there.

It is time to ditch the old framework. You are not married to it.