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it's certainly an interesting one... say we all had to pay medical insurance and the premium was doubled if you weren't vaccinated. Would probably point a few to go get jabbed, especially those that don't have lots of money. Quite a worrying way for things to go which leaves things open to exploitation really.

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3 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

it's certainly an interesting one... say we all had to pay medical insurance and the premium was doubled if you weren't vaccinated. Would probably point a few to go get jabbed, especially those that don't have lots of money. Quite a worrying way for things to go which leaves things open to exploitation really.

But there will be varying degrees of treatment even for antivaxers should they catch it. Its just not worth getting annoyed about those who will not have the jab even though I have not heard one reasonable argument not to.

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2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

But there will be varying degrees of treatment even for antivaxers should they catch it. Its just not worth getting annoyed about those who will not have the jab even though I have not heard one reasonable argument not to.

it isn't worth it for me currently but I'd be really miffed if I was in Austria or Germany right now.

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Well the new mutation is out so we’ll see just how good the vaccine is against this one…..in time.

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6 hours ago, ricardo said:

Don't worry about it, I think the key thing to remember is that any variant which has sufficiently diluted binding efficiency to antibodies will also have extremely diluted binding efficiency to the ACE-2 receptor making it much less effective.

Peppa pig panics quickly though as we start to close borders with Africa. But as usual we are going to let plenty of flights in first.

Although not many cases identified yet it is thought a possibility that in 4 weeks in one area of South Africa it accounts for 90% all cases.

Lets hope you are correct and we don’t suffer for not helping these countries with vaccines.

I don’t worry about these things anymore, however it took 4 months for the world to worry about Alpha, 3 1/2 months to worry about Delta and 2 weeks for the world to panic about this variant.
 

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Let’s just hope it don’t get out of Africa, like Ebola which didn’t get far.

Throwing people in their domestic prisons, confined to Pasta, loo rolls and Netflix, just delays the obvious, it don’t “surpress” or stop it completely at all.

Edited by KernowCanary

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8 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

Let’s just hope it don’t get out of Africa, like Ebola which didn’t get far.

Throwing people in their domestic prisons, confined to Pasta, loo rolls and Netflix, just delays the obvious, it don’t “surpress” or stop it completely at all.

It’s already out of Africa (as they say)!

Lock down plays an important roll in protecting health services, particularly when community immunity is low whether by an absent vaccine or equally an ineffective vaccine. 

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

It’s already out of Africa (as they say)!

Lock down plays an important roll in protecting health services, particularly when community immunity is low whether by an absent vaccine or equally an ineffective vaccine. 

Only Hong Kong, but I don’t think we have that much of a relationship with them like we do with India and that played a part in Delta getting over here; Boris kept sucking up to Modi allowing diplomatic arranged flights into the country from there.

Lockdowns do prevent health systems being overwhelmed etc, but it’s that they have a huge effect on mental health, only pause the obvious until they are eased and when they last until further notice, then that’s when they have a huge mental effect. The November one last year was just for the month and nobody complained about that one really, as we were told in advance it’s duration.

I’m only for lockdown again if it means adopting the Austrian model, allowing freedoms for the vaccinated. This works better and encourages the anti-vaxxers who are the problem’s nub, to actually do something useful to themselves and others in their somewhat sad conspiracy-filled lives.

If they still refuse, since there are twisted individuals who actually enjoy lockdowns, make it a legal requirement.

To think that second lockdown was still going on a year ago and was about to end the following week. Times gone quick.

Edited by KernowCanary

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9 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

Only Hong Kong, but I don’t think we have that much of a relationship with them like we do with India and that played a part in Delta getting over here; Boris kept sucking up to Modi allowing diplomatic arranged flights into the country from there.

Lockdowns do prevent health systems being overwhelmed etc, but it’s that they have a huge effect on mental health, only pause the obvious until they are eased and when they last until further notice, then that’s when they have a huge mental effect. The November one last year was just for the month and nobody complained about that one really, as we were told in advance it’s duration.

I’m only for lockdown again if it means adopting the Austrian model, allowing freedoms for the vaccinated. This works better and encourages the anti-vaxxers who are the problem’s nub, to actually do something useful to themselves and others in their somewhat sad conspiracy-filled lives.

If they still refuse, since there are twisted individuals who actually enjoy lockdowns, make it a legal requirement.

To think that second lockdown was still going on a year ago and was about to end the following week. Times gone quick.

Now reported in Israel

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Now reported in Israel

Isreal may provide the first real world data about what the future holds. 

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Let' hope higher infectivity goes with a less severe illness even if it can more easily defeat the vaccines.

We knew something like this would happen sooner or later - even if this one turns out to be a false alarm it is a dire warning that no country can be an island against the virus. It needs a world effort, and prompt world vaccination.  

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On 28/08/2021 at 16:41, Upo said:

Complete immunity evasion is extremely unlikely. However, selection pressure promotes viral evolution towards higher immunity resistance and/or higher infectivity and development of variants with higher viral "fitness" is certainty in presence of infections. Studies show that Sars-CoV-2 is consistently evolving towards higher viral fitness.

Long term infectivity is a much bigger problem for mankind than virulence or immunity evasion. In principle, more infectious virus gets more chances to develop resistance against immunity than an immune-evasive virus gets to develop higher infectivity. In Sars-cov-2's case, reproduction number seems to correlate with virulence. Delta is atleast twice as infectious and probably about twice as deadly as the original variant.

At the bottom is a chart from April 2020. Delta R0 estimates currently round up to ca. 6. Waves of infections have been caused by orig./wild type, Alpha (B117)+Gamma (P1) and Delta respectively. Others are noise. This suggests doubling of infectivity every two generations, with 3 to 6 months between emergence of new dominant VOCs.

The recurring "waves" separated by similar times are consequence of viral characteristics and societal response. Each variant is consequence of this interaction due to its impact on selection pressure and volume of infections. Societies respond to new variants by increasing mitigating measures to match R0 of a strain, but generally do not overshoot, preferring to control and mitigate. This leads to sustained spread of infections and chances for viral evolution.

Peak of evolution probably occurs when cases are the highest, but selection pressure only truly starts to weed out the weaker variants under lockdowns and emergence of immunity in population (infections+vaccines). Once infections go down, restrictions are eased and the newly emerged variant begins to spread exponentially. Initial level of infections is low and viral spread is lost in background noise for a while. Once alarms go off that something new has developed, sequencing takes time, and confirmation of a new variant of concern (VOC) requires epidemiological observation for a period of time.

It seems that this "dance" takes about 3 to 6 months. The picture is muddled by variants developing in different geographic locations. Regardless, waves seem to propagate from region of origin to everywhere within a few months of its identification as a new VOC.

We thought that vaccines would short-circuit this interaction, but evidence is quite clear that the opposite is happening: Pre-existing infection derived immunity had already trained the virus to increase its fitness. The fact that delta developed under very little interaction against vaccines is evidence that herd immunity is unachievable. Delta hasn't succeeded in escaping immunity, which is why vaccines protect against severe disease. Instead, Delta has escaped herd immunity. This is critical, because infections drive viral evolution. Countermeasures let only the fittest survive.

My guess is that effective but incomplete mitigating measures drive viral infectiousness and population immunity drives immunity evasion. If we are lucky, virulence is a side effect of infectiousness. If we are unlucky, virulence is an important mechanism for infectiousness. I think the answer is a mix of both, leaning towards side effect. The fatality rate is too low. Unfortunately it is moving in the wrong direction, so it probably drives infectiousness too. It is notable that every strain has been more dangerous than the previous one.

Essentially mankind is the best P.T. a virus like sars-cov-2 could have: Always at the edge of suppressing the pandemic but never achieving it.

A doubling from current R0 6+ would create a variant competing with Measles as the most infectious disease we know. It is uncertain if there is any upper limit to potential infectiousness of sars-cov-2. I think it is plausible this will evolve into the most infectious disease mankind has ever faced. I'm on the fence whether it theoretically could evolve into the most infectious disease in the 4 billion year history of life.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/

KM-4.png

 

 

It is here. If 500% advantage over delta is true, this is by far the most infectious disease in mankind's history. We'll know its immunity evasiveness and virulence within 3 weeks. By then it has spread everywhere and it is too late.

 

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FFGYrxmXMBUAQWb?format=jpg&name=medium

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9 minutes ago, Upo said:

 

It is here. If 500% advantage over delta is true, this is by far the most infectious disease in mankind's history. We'll know its immunity evasiveness and virulence within 3 weeks. By then it has spread everywhere and it is too late.

 

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FFGYrxmXMBUAQWb?format=jpg&name=medium

Argh well we’re all going to die at some point! Nature’s way of getting rid of its own virus as my cousin in Sweden said last year!

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No reason to panic yet but I think they were wise to do what they have done. Once again some have said the vaccine is not quite good enough against this mutation. I hope they are wrong.

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Le Parisien: "First case of the new SA variant detected in Belgium this pm."

In the meantime, passengers arriving at Heathrow on the last plane from South Africa before the ban were "subjected to no special measures."

Will they ever learn?

My first complaint against this lax lot was based upon personal experience. With the virus already rampant in Asia by that time I was able to waltz through Heathrow that March without having so much as needing my temperature to be checked. I had used EVA Air (Taiwan.) and my flight was packed with South-East Asians.

We know what happened not too long after that.

 

Edited by BroadstairsR

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I hate the words “strain”, “variant”, “concern” and the acronym “VOC” so much now.

This vaccine better work against it, since only like 25 percent of South Africans have been vaccinated, I hope that is the reason why it’s so bad there.

What Greek letter will we be on now?, Omicru, Epsilon or a different one from those?.

Edited by KernowCanary

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6 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

Le Parisien: "First case of the new SA variant detected in Belgium this pm."

In the meantime, passengers arriving at Heathrow on the last plane from South Africa before the ban were "subjected to no special measures."

Will they ever learn?

My first complaint against this lax lot was based upon personal experience. With the virus already rampant in Asia by that time I was able to waltz through Heathrow last March without having so much as needing my temperature to be checked. I had used EVA Air (Taiwan.) and my flight was packed with South-East Asians.

We know what happened not too long after that.

 

Let’s hope they don’t have it or isolate as soon as they know.

I hope they take the decent humanitarian steps and test themselves, then self isolate if positive.

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Sorry for the third post in a row, but I’ll leave with this…..

I’m not going to worry until it gets bad, I’m not going to worry about my holiday in April to Iceland next year, I’m going to continue with the preparations and booking of my tours, as well as booking my pre-departure lateral-flow test when I get paid on New Years Eve, as I’m saving my upcoming pay for a big night out on Christmas Eve. The BBC can stuff their “Big Night In”, if they do another one. That was so ****, I wanted a big night out and now it’s coming. To go to Iceland you need that test, so ifs or buts about it, so it will be kept out well. Icelanders also are well behaved such as washing hands and following guidance.

I will concentrate on all that worry if need be and cross that bridge when and if it comes.

No doubt the science boffins and Covid Correspondents on the TV news will be having a field day tonight, in their cushy well paid jobs with no worries about losing them.

Let’s just get out there, enjoy our lives and keep well away from all this media clickbait nonsense. As soon as the word “mutant”, “mutation” and “variant” crop up, it’s all presented as if that’s really bad, when in fact not all mutations are bad.

This graph will keep us reassured for now….

CF8BDDE7-1F6C-4545-9EA5-E03D2396EADB.jpeg

Edited by KernowCanary

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40 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

I hate the words “strain”, “variant”, “concern” and the acronym “VOC” so much now.

This vaccine better work against it, since only like 25 percent of South Africans have been vaccinated, I hope that is the reason why it’s so bad there.

What Greek letter will we be on now?, Omicru, Epsilon or a different one from those?.

down to nu (ų) aren't we now?

Not trying to downplay things as I genuinely don't know what this all means for things but wasn't this to be expected? We've been told we have to "live with the virus" since it will basically never go away for the foreseeable and we'll need regular jab updates just like we do every year for flu?

I'm glad we have gone cautious with the red list until we know more and hope we help the people that will be caught in limbo with this but eventually it will come here (if it's not already) and what will be will be.

From a fairly selfish point of view, I hope we can at least get the Christmas period out of the way before we have to do anything major about it. January is always **** anyway.

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3 hours ago, Upo said:

 

It is here. If 500% advantage over delta is true, this is by far the most infectious disease in mankind's history. We'll know its immunity evasiveness and virulence within 3 weeks. By then it has spread everywhere and it is too late.

 

FFGYrxzXwAArwWv?format=jpg&name=small

FFGYrxmXMBUAQWb?format=jpg&name=medium

surely that must be one cluster/superspreader or they just haven't detected a bunch of cases for it to be that high. Most people don't have that many contacts for R0 to be that high.

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27 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

surely that must be one cluster/superspreader or they just haven't detected a bunch of cases for it to be that high. Most people don't have that many contacts for R0 to be that high.

After 2 weeks in a province in SA apparently the R is already 2.

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18 minutes ago, Well b back said:

After 2 weeks in a province in SA apparently the R is already 2.

in an area with low vaccination. It would be interesting to see if its mainly picking off the remaining naive population or not. I saw something say that most cases are in under 25s but can't remember where.

Have they started seeing much illness and death yet?

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National

50,091 -  160

rate of increase of 10%        has been steady for several days, almost all the increase has been in schoolage cohorts.

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             268.2     slight increase but low numbers   Local   R  estimated 0.9 - 1.1

 

     

N&N Patients

   
 
23-11-2021             28
22-11-2021 27
21-11-2021 25
20-11-2021 24
   

Vax     

1st Dose      23,579              88.5% done                               Norwich numbers   77.4% 

2nd Dose     22,823              80.4% done                                                                  70.5%


Booster     396,081     total          16,779,656                 29.2%

In Hospital  

25-11-2021                                       7,633
24-11-2021 7,654
23-11-2021 7,903
22-11-2021 8,123
21-11-2021 8,029
20-11-2021 7,933
19-11-2021 8,058

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1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

down to nu (ų) aren't we now?

Not trying to downplay things as I genuinely don't know what this all means for things but wasn't this to be expected? We've been told we have to "live with the virus" since it will basically never go away for the foreseeable and we'll need regular jab updates just like we do every year for flu?

I'm glad we have gone cautious with the red list until we know more and hope we help the people that will be caught in limbo with this but eventually it will come here (if it's not already) and what will be will be.

From a fairly selfish point of view, I hope we can at least get the Christmas period out of the way before we have to do anything major about it. January is always **** anyway.

Then by April we will be ready to go again. If anything happens, I reckon an Austrian style model will be used. After all, that “substantial meal” b*locks was copied from a different country’s response.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

After 2 weeks in a province in SA apparently the R is already 2.

It looks at this stage as if we are dealing with a complete restart. 

Edited by Van wink

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21 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It looks at this stage as if we are dealing with a complete restart. 

Snakes 'n ladders.

I would be extremely cautious at present for a couple of weeks until we know more - and certainly any UK detected cases is local lockdown - but I would hope that it turns out to be less of a problem than it at first appears either by severity of disease or vaccine resistance. The issue is as ever is dithering useless Johnson can't make the big calls on-time!

As always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

It looks at this stage as if we are dealing with a complete restart. 

Unwarranted panic.

According to this guy Rt is 1.94, well below Delta.

 

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1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

in an area with low vaccination. It would be interesting to see if its mainly picking off the remaining naive population or not. I saw something say that most cases are in under 25s but can't remember where.

Have they started seeing much illness and death yet?

From what I understand to early to see what happens. 
I am like you these days, normally yea whatever, but there does seem different things going on here. It normally takes 3 months for a variant to become of concern after it is discovered. This has not only taken days, but is being talked about around the world and being classed as higher than concern at serious concern. 
We happened to have a really high person in today, who mentioned the new variant as something that could cause havoc, so who knows.

Unfortunately with a population of 1.4 billion you can’t simply whizz a load of vaccine over.

It was interesting to note comments on a negative that it is likely to have higher rates against vaccines and having it ( Delta )  immunity ( it has altered so much ), yet on a positive note they did not expect the new treatments to be effected. 

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