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1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

so why did it erupt so bad in the first place after months of solid containment? Did they start getting complacent or something?

I've been looking at Japan (and East Asia more generally) since the start.  I am not sure anyone can really explain why pretty much the entire region has done so well. There are lots and lots of theories but none on their own are really satisfactory.

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2 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

so why did it erupt so bad in the first place after months of solid containment? Did they start getting complacent or something?

When it got bad (and that's a relative term - peaked at around 25K/day for a population twice ours) they implemented local 'States of Emergency' plus a natural population compliance /  buy in.

And yes like all people they can also get a little complacent.

I actually don't believe its mysterious.

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National

43,676 -  149

rate of increase of 11.1%         slight rise in the increase over 7 days,

 

Local

Norwich        West rate  250.9            

drop has flattened out but numbers fairly small.

     

N&N Patients

   
16-11-2021                            27
    down slightly from 30

Vax     

1st Dose      26,822              88.4% done                               Norwich numbers   77.4% 

2nd Dose     22,002              80.4% done                                                                  70.4%


Booster     365,152     total          15,639,477                 27.8%

In Hospital   (almost flat over the past 5 days) hospitalisations and deaths continue to fall over 7 days.

22-11-2021                                       8,088
21-11-2021 8,006
20-11-2021 7,913
19-11-2021 8,040
18-11-2021 8,093
17-11-2021 8,194
16-11-2021 8,447
Edited by ricardo

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4 hours ago, ricardo said:

 

it's data like this which means I'm just not even going to bother comply if we are forced into another lockdown because of antivaxxers. I've taken my vaccine thrice, am careful around vulnerable people (as I was pre covid anyway) and it's time to move on.

I'd be so frustrated if I was in Austria now at the older unvaccinated people who have filled up the ICUs. By all means if you're young and healthy I don't really care what you do (yep these guys are still a bit dim) since it's going to spread regardless but if you're dumb enough to refuse preemptive life saving treatment for a disease you have a 10% chance of dying with (and 30% severe case chance) then you're an absolute fool.

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15 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

it's data like this which means I'm just not even going to bother comply if we are forced into another lockdown because of antivaxxers. I've taken my vaccine thrice, am careful around vulnerable people (as I was pre covid anyway) and it's time to move on.

I'd be so frustrated if I was in Austria now at the older unvaccinated people who have filled up the ICUs. By all means if you're young and healthy I don't really care what you do (yep these guys are still a bit dim) since it's going to spread regardless but if you're dumb enough to refuse preemptive life saving treatment for a disease you have a 10% chance of dying with (and 30% severe case chance) then you're an absolute fool.

Not much anyone can do about anti-vaxers in a free society. Some countries have a lot of them for religious or whatever other reason and they will be succumbing in large numbers over the next couple of months. I can see the USA having another big one.

Lockdowns as we know, only delay the inevitable and doing it over the summer period has stored up a lot of dead wood.

The only blessing is that the FT graphs indicate that a timely third dose for the vulnerable cohort is going to make a big difference to hospitalisations and deaths for us over the difficult winter period. The decision to lift restrictions in July and getting a good start to the booster campaign is looking better by the day.

Italy, today highest number of daily cases since May.

Portugal, highest numbers since July

 

Edited by ricardo
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39 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Not much anyone can do about anti-vaxers in a free society. Some countries have a lot of them for religious or whatever other reason and they will be succumbing in large numbers over the next couple of months. I can see the USA having another big one.

Lockdowns as we know, only delay the inevitable and doing it over the summer period has stored up a lot of dead wood.

The only blessing is that the FT graphs indicate that a timely third dose for the vulnerable cohort is going to make a big difference to hospitalisations and deaths for us over the difficult winter period. The decision to lift restrictions in July and getting a good start to the booster campaign is looking better by the day.

Italy, today highest number of daily cases since May.

Portugal, highest numbers since July

 

Ativaxers are allowed to say no, then they should be charged in full for any treatment required. As a free society we still have means to pressure them to do the right thing or at least give them consequences for refusing.

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This graph in particular points to the real battle.

I've more or less given up on the thought of never being exposed to Covid (zerocovid fwiw). This means you face ploughing through your remaining dry tinder at your own leisure.

We know lockdowns, masks etc work at driving down cases but we also know that covid simply isn't going to ever be zero unless you're prepared to do this sort of stuff (and/or close borders) more or less permenantly.

This all means that there are now the choice of the following "dystopian options" which are now inevitable:

Mandatory vaccination for everyone

Mandatory vaccination for people 50+

Lockdown until zero (and then again and again when it creeps back)

Something between full lockdown and do nothing, juggling between depending on case rates

Do nothing and allow chaos to determine what happens.

For me, if needs be then option 2, Mandatory vaccination for people 50+ is the one. The government's remit is really to look after wider public health rather than be everyone's nanny. the negative externalities of leaving someone 50+ unprotected are just too high and for me, lockdown should be completely off the table as its too costly and ultimately won't be sustainable as a solution.

Continuously shutting kids etc off to exposure is just going to provide perfect breeding ground for when you finally do unleash them in amongst a population of older people

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Edited by Tetteys Jig

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2 minutes ago, Indy said:

Ativaxers are allowed to say no, then they should be charged in full for any treatment required. As a free society we still have means to pressure them to do the right thing or at least give them consequences for refusing.

I wonder what this would mean for the whole "free at the point of use" mantra... What do we do with fat people or people with substance abuse who cost us tax money and block beds?

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Just now, Tetteys Jig said:

I wonder what this would mean for the whole "free at the point of use" mantra... What do we do with fat people or people with substance abuse who cost us tax money and block beds?

Get a fat pill! I have long said that treatment given should come with a caveat that post treatment self care is up to each individual then if they don’t follow the protocol they then pay for future treatment. If you can’t help yourself then why should others pay for you? I’m in a minority though! The idea of free NHS is a myth we all pay big money for it so should be respected.

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46 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Not much anyone can do about anti-vaxers in a free society. Some countries have a lot of them for religious or whatever other reason and they will be succumbing in large numbers over the next couple of months. I can see the USA having another big one.

Lockdowns as we know, only delay the inevitable and doing it over the summer period has stored up a lot of dead wood.

The only blessing is that the FT graphs indicate that a timely third dose for the vulnerable cohort is going to make a big difference to hospitalisations and deaths for us over the difficult winter period. The decision to lift restrictions in July and getting a good start to the booster campaign is looking better by the day.

Italy, today highest number of daily cases since May.

Portugal, highest numbers since July

 

hate to say it but also the decision to let the young people spread it while the elderly had decent double jab coverage has helped as well. Clearly a decision of least harms has been made. Sure we might have been a "dangerous and unethical experiment" to some but our options really aren't as widespread as in an ideal world of robots and rainbows where everyone can just pause on the spot for 2 weeks and wish it away.

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1 minute ago, Indy said:

Get a fat pill! I have long said that treatment given should come with a caveat that post treatment self care is up to each individual then if they don’t follow the protocol they then pay for future treatment. If you can’t help yourself then why should others pay for you? I’m in a minority though! The idea of free NHS is a myth we all pay big money for it so should be respected.

yup, I've always thought that surely there's something in the middle and that we don't have to go full USA on healthcare. Unfortunately the greedy insurance companies etc have tainted their system when in theory, it could work. Same sort of argument that communism and capitalism both work in theory but people just get greedy and spoil it in reality.

In your example though, say this obese person has no money to pay or won't pay, what do we actually do with them? leave them to die in their own fat at home? force them to have treatment? force them to pay/pass their financial burden onto their family?

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Am so tired of that word “Epicentre”, when will the media stop reporting on this every night?. When enough of us have had boosters and the big wigs in charge have finally accepted it as another virus?.

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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Germany tops 70k tonight.

 

I read from Bild a few days ago that in some of the remotest areas of Germany they are partial to holding so-called Covid parties, which involve a gathering of people who invite Covid positive guests along. The thinking being that they would rather deliberately expose themselves to the virus, and then become immune, than subject themselves to vaccination.

The problem is that quite a few of those who caught it that way have ended up in intensive care and some have since died.

An even more hoodoo ish approach is taken by those who are convinced that worming tablets used for horses will keep the virus at bay. One woman has since died of an overdose. 

This in Germany.

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4 hours ago, Indy said:

Ativaxers are allowed to say no, then they should be charged in full for any treatment required. As a free society we still have means to pressure them to do the right thing or at least give them consequences for refusing.

Hmm again though, if you’re going to say that, why should smokers not have to pay for lung cancer treatment? They could have said no to smoking. Same with diseases related to alcohol, obesity etc. 
edit : posted before reading the rest of the thread!

Edited by Aggy
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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Germany tops 70k tonight.

 

I do feel a bit sorry for Germany given how well they navigated the pre vaccine 2020 era whilst surrounded by chaos here in UK and most of the rest of Europe.

Every country seems to find its own little way of screwing up something different to each other. In Germanys case, it's antivaxx seniors.

I can't help but think that all that screwing around with approvals of vaccines in funny cohorts and orders and the nonsense with the AZ vaccine put some vulnerable people off getting vaccinated whilst the likes of Portugal and even us in UK put our politics aside and united in a vaccination effort (at least the older folk anyway).

I think back to that story in the papers of that woman who's husband had just died from vaccine side effects still imploring people to go get jabbed and even the sh*t rags like the s*n and daily mail encouraging it. Thank god they did really or we'd probably be in the same boat as them! Hopefully if we have to have a culture war we keep it to whether or not to wear masks down the shops and it doesn't spill over to vaccines.

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44 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Hmm again though, if you’re going to say that, why should smokers not have to pay for lung cancer treatment? They could have said no to smoking. Same with diseases related to alcohol, obesity etc. 
edit : posted before reading the rest of the thread!

I guess we can at least heavily tax those goods which should at least in theory offset the additional cost to public health. How do you tax an anti-vaxxer?

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

Hmm again though, if you’re going to say that, why should smokers not have to pay for lung cancer treatment? They could have said no to smoking. Same with diseases related to alcohol, obesity etc. 
edit : posted before reading the rest of the thread!

Aren’t you heavily taxed ? 

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5 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

yup, I've always thought that surely there's something in the middle and that we don't have to go full USA on healthcare. Unfortunately the greedy insurance companies etc have tainted their system when in theory, it could work. Same sort of argument that communism and capitalism both work in theory but people just get greedy and spoil it in reality.

In your example though, say this obese person has no money to pay or won't pay, what do we actually do with them? leave them to die in their own fat at home? force them to have treatment? force them to pay/pass their financial burden onto their family?

Like I said free treatment initially and for any condition a program to keep to to ensure best opportunity to fully recover. If they fail to keep to the recovery program then tough, pay for the treatment. There’s huge burden on the NHS from conditions which could like you say be avoided if those who can take better care of themselves in many ways. But it’s not the norm to take ownership of anything is it, as Covid measures shows! Simple task of wearing a face covering in crowded areas or social distance and hygiene questionable again.

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Significant !8% weekly increase on Zoe, mainly in younger people, school kids and their parents. Old fogies figures dropping slightly, good news. (my figure dropped a long time ago).

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23 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Significant !8% weekly increase on Zoe, mainly in younger people, school kids and their parents. Old fogies figures dropping slightly, good news. (my figure dropped a long time ago).

Snap.

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15 hours ago, Aggy said:

Hmm again though, if you’re going to say that, why should smokers not have to pay for lung cancer treatment? They could have said no to smoking. Same with diseases related to alcohol, obesity etc. 
edit : posted before reading the rest of the thread!

The costs of treating smoking related diseases are more than covered by duty on cigarettes and similar is true for alcohol. Arguably, it'd be a better approach to do this for all illegal drugs, but that's another subject.

Vaccines are different: The vaccines cost government money to purchase and deliver, but represents a massive saving overall in the reductions of costs to the health service in treating more severe cases, as well as reduced economic disruption from less people becoming severely ill/dying. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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The B.1.1.529 variant has 32 mutations in the spike protein and evades vaccines.
We need to keep this little bug*** out, after only 10 known cases in Africa is already known as variant of significant concern.

Edited by Well b back
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39 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The B.1.1.529 variant has 32 mutations in the spike protein and evades vaccines.
We need to keep this little bug*** out, after only 10 known cases in Africa is already known as variant of significant concern.

Don't worry about it, I think the key thing to remember is that any variant which has sufficiently diluted binding efficiency to antibodies will also have extremely diluted binding efficiency to the ACE-2 receptor making it much less effective.

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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Don't worry about it, I think the key thing to remember is that any variant which has sufficiently diluted binding efficiency to antibodies will also have extremely diluted binding efficiency to the ACE-2 receptor making it much less effective.

Its all about a competitive advantage

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National

47,240 -  147

rate of increase of 9.5%        

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             242.3           

 

     

N&N Patients

   
 
23-11-2021             28
22-11-2021 27
21-11-2021 25
20-11-2021 24
   

Vax     

1st Dose      24,579              88.4% done                               Norwich numbers   77.4% 

2nd Dose     23,439              80.4% done                                                                  70.5%


Booster     378,946     total          15,639,477                 28.5%

In Hospital  

24-11-2021                                       7,641
23-11-2021 7,893
22-11-2021 8,114
21-11-2021 8,021
20-11-2021 7,927
19-11-2021 8,053
18-11-2021 8,105

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17 hours ago, Well b back said:

Aren’t you heavily taxed ? 

I don’t smoke or drink so I wouldn’t know. 

How about obese people? Or people who break their legs doing activities - could have chosen to stay home instead. 

And while everyone ignored the chart I posted up last week (I can only guess why), covid cases were a very small proportion of people in hospital beds. So regardless of how much you tax cigarettes and alcohol does it really “pay” for the fact there aren’t enough beds for other people to get treatment?

Picking and choosing what gets free treatment is a slippery slope. Fine when it’s anti vaxxers, but don’t whinge when it’s something closer to home… We saw on here how certain posters mocked 20 year olds for whinging about ‘civil liberties’ but literally called potential restrictions for over 50s “undemocratic”…

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3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I don’t smoke or drink so I wouldn’t know. 

How about obese people? Or people who break their legs doing activities - could have chosen to stay home instead. 

And while everyone ignored the chart I posted up last week (I can only guess why), covid cases were a very small proportion of people in hospital beds. So regardless of how much you tax cigarettes and alcohol does it really “pay” for the fact there aren’t enough beds for other people to get treatment?

Picking and choosing what gets free treatment is a slippery slope. Fine when it’s anti vaxxers, but don’t whinge when it’s something closer to home… We saw on here how certain posters mocked 20 year olds for whinging about ‘civil liberties’ but literally called potential restrictions for over 50s “undemocratic”…

Well, I do happen to agree with the main thrust of your argument over the months - concerning alcohol, obesity, smoking. I haven't been to A&E many times (accompanying others only thankfully when I have) but I think it is fair to say that every time I have done, there has always been not one, but many folk there p*ssed out of their heads and clearly drunk. Type 2 diabetes is also a big problem, so much so that it leads to many other issues. Smoking is an obvious problem too. All these things put Covid into perspective. 

We arguably need far harder and stronger measures to either encourage or perhaps coerce people to improve their well being. Also I would target mental health services (but then having worked in the industry for 25 years I would say that of course!). I cannot see this present administration doing that (even the attempt by some lobbyists to tax sugar has largely failed). The media would also start to cry "nanny state". 

The other big issue is that now that the health bill has got past it's first stage, we look like facilitating more US influence into our health services and systems. Some would welcome this of course as not everyone supports the idea of the NHS (seen as far too 'socialist' - which in a way it is). Yet, you can see that a move towards more private health insurance would also mean more profiling and an examination of health records and health indicators. The move towards greater digitalisation will lead to more surveillance of our personal habits and behaviours (including what we buy, what we consume -  this kind of world is definitely coming) and costs of insurance will rise for those seen as least healthy. Maybe this is what is needed to lead to change Aggy? I'm sure it is not my solution but this is the way we are heading isn't it?

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