Corona Virus main thread

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

6 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Earlier chart with the requested countries on it. Belgium and Netherlands have fully vaccinated more of their total population than the UK/France/Germany but the other three cited countries are all below (particularly in the case of Slovakia !!).

Makes the Netherlands, with their very high case numbers, something of an awkward question doesn't it ???  

 

Thanks Mark.

Your rhetorical question is indeed awkward - which is why I just believe in humble caution and not a blind faith in vaccines alone. Other measures and human behavioral factors I'm sure are at least as important in controlling the pandemic . 

 

[Aggy 750]

15 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Earlier chart with the requested countries on it. Belgium and Netherlands have fully vaccinated more of their total population than the UK/France/Germany but the other three cited countries are all below (particularly in the case of Slovakia !!).

Makes the Netherlands, with their very high case numbers, something of an awkward question doesn't it ???  

 

Thanks. Netherlands the only thing I can think is that they haven’t yet started boosters (Reuters report on 15th that they were due to start administering boosters at the end of this week). When it comes to hospitalisations that’s going to have a big impact you’d have thought, one which I think we are ahead of given that many already have boosters.

Are there any graphs re boosters per population?

 

Edit: link and quote:

”Around 85% of the Dutch adult population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, and the country will start to administer booster shots to health workers and the elderly at the end of this week.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pressure-dutch-hospitals-mounts-covid-cases-break-records-2021-11-15/

Edited November 19, 2021 by Aggy

[ricardo 7,339]

1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

Earlier chart with the requested countries on it. Belgium and Netherlands have fully vaccinated more of their total population than the UK/France/Germany but the other three cited countries are all below (particularly in the case of Slovakia !!).

Makes the Netherlands, with their very high case numbers, something of an awkward question doesn't it ???  

 

As I expected, no real correlation when you consider Netherlands and Belgium. Those countries at the bottom  (Czechia, Austria) obviously have more dry tinder to burn but everybody will have some due to the size of the vaccine reluctant cohort. Can anyone say for certain that the Dutch and Belgians had looser restrictions or acted in a different manner to French and Spaniards?

Then there is waning protection to be considered. Those that stuck to the three week gap will be approaching it sooner than those that extended the gap. Even more obvious why different countries are peaking at different times.

[Aggy 750]

Just revisited Ricardo’s graph from yesterday - almost a quarter of the uk (presumably adult rather than total?) population have had a third jab. If the Dutch haven’t even started then might go some way to explaining what looks like a discrepancy.

 

edit: Belgium also lagging on boosters (only a quarter of over 65s there compared to 1/4 of the whole (adult?) population here):

https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/194011/booster-dose-rollout-slow-in-belgium-flanders-lagging-behind/
 

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Aggy

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

I thought the current wave of infections in these European countries was viewed as heavily driven by waning vaccine immunity, or have I missed something ?

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As I expected, no real correlation when you consider Netherlands and Belgium. Those countries at the bottom  (Czechia, Austria) obviously have more dry tinder to burn but everybody will have some due to the size of the vaccine reluctant cohort. Can anyone say for certain that the Dutch and Belgians had looser restrictions or acted in a different manner to French and Spaniards?

Then there is waning protection to be considered. Those that stuck to the three week gap will be approaching it sooner than those that extended the gap. Even more obvious why different countries are peaking at different times.

The problem Ricardo with boosters is that we know that the 'cases' here are predominantly in the young (unboosted - I suspect we're still not through most of 60+ cohort  yet) - So in Europe are the cases in the old double jabbed but unboosted in really high numbers to skew their case numbers as compared to us?

Anybody got the data ?

If it's not significantly in the elderly then it has to be something else going on.

Have to dash - no time to look myself.

[ricardo 7,339]

The Germans have similar worries about their own government as many in the UK  do. The statement of a shortage of IC beds is certainly a new one on me.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung journalist:

"In the UK there has been an incidence of around 400 for months, but not nearly the same panic as in Germany. The hospitals are not at their limit because of covid patients. The shortage of intensive care beds in Germany seems to me to be the result of a major political failure."

https://twitter.com/PhilipPlickert/status/1461435946465964037

 

 

Good to see we don't have a monopoly on Conspiracy Theorists

Replying to

@PhilipPlickert

Meines Erachtens nach wurden die freien Betten absichtsvoll in die Notfallreserve verschoben um den Eindruck eines Mangels erwecken zu können. Es ist ein faschistischer Putsch und keine Pandemie

Translated from German by

 

In my opinion, the free beds were deliberately moved to the emergency reserve in order to give the impression of a shortage. It's a fascist coup, not a pandemic

 

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,339]

6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The problem Ricardo with boosters is that we know that the 'cases' here are predominantly in the young (unboosted - I suspect we're still not through most of 60+ cohort  yet) - So in Europe are the cases in the old double jabbed but unboosted in really high numbers to skew their case numbers as compared to us?

Anybody got the data ?

If it's not significantly in the elderly then it has to be something else going on.

Have to dash - no time to look myself.

Don't know about Europe but no detectable rise in over 60's positives at this time. Most ares seem to be gently going down or at least flat according to this data.

 

[Barbe bleu 812]

58 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Earlier chart with the requested countries on it. Belgium and Netherlands have fully vaccinated more of their total population than the UK/France/Germany but the other three cited countries are all below (particularly in the case of Slovakia !!).

Makes the Netherlands, with their very high case numbers, something of an awkward question doesn't it ???  

 

Netherlands has high vax but relatively low prior infection so I would expect high numbers/growth.  Germany relatively low vax and relatively low infection so i would also expect big numbers.

Spain, Portugal and Italy: high vax and high prior infection.  Would expect lower growth.

Former Warsaw pact: v. low vax, low prior Infection: off the chart big returns expected.

Everything is going  according to expectations based on the two ways of getting immunity I would have thought (though winter begins to hit at different times so picture is still emerging)

France is the outlier and doesn't fit the pattern, their relative success (right now and thus far) reflects badly on whoever else you want to compare to them... Which might explain the recent interet pout tout ce qui est francais on here of late.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[ricardo 7,339]

😉

Seems logical BB.

If you look hard enough you can always find a poster child. The problem comes when the data changes.

[ricardo 7,339]

National

44,242 - 157

rate of increase of 13.1% over 7 days, 7th day of rises after 3 weeks of falls. Rate of increase slows for second day, good news??

 

Local

Norwich rate  328.8           my area, City centre West looks to have spiked  but rate falling from yesterday

All of Norwich down 1.7%

     

N&N Patients

16-11-2021                            27     down slightly from 30

Vax     

1st Dose      28,880              88.2% done                               Norwich numbers   77.3% 

2nd Dose     20,650              80.2% done                                                                  70.2%

Booster     387,057     total          14,266,368                 24.8%

In Hospital

18-11-2021	8,079
17-11-2021	8,182
16-11-2021	8,435
15-11-2021	8,720
14-11-2021	8,565
13-11-2021	8,483
12-11-2021	8,619

[Aggy 750]

46 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I thought the current wave of infections in these European countries was viewed as heavily driven by waning vaccine immunity, or have I missed something ?

 

12 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Netherlands has high vax but relatively low prior infection so I would expect high numbers/growth.  Germany relatively low vax and relatively low infection so i would also expect big numbers.

Spain, Portugal and Italy: high vax and high prior infection.  Would expect lower growth.

Former Warsaw pact: v. low vax, low prior Infection: off the chart big returns expected.

Everything is going  according to expectations based on the two ways of getting immunity I would have thought (though winter begins to hit at different times so picture is still emerging)

France is the outlier and doesn't fit the pattern, their relative success (right now and thus far) reflects badly on whoever else you want to compare to them... Which might explain the recent interet pout tout ce qui est francais on here of late.

I’m not sure it’s even as complicated as prior infection BB. Look at the status of boosters and it’s seemingly a lot more straight forward.

Not surprising the likes of Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria are seeing a need for lockdowns, because their vaccination rates for first two vaccines are very low.

Netherlands has high vax, but hasn’t even started boosters. If all the 65 year olds were vaccinated nearly a year ago now, they’re going to be seeing issues. Which they are. Same story with Belgium - high vax for the first two, but barely started boosters.

Spain, Portugal, Italy all well on with boosters (struggling to find figures other than when they started though). France - around half of the vulnerable / over 65s groups in France have already had a booster and of course they’ve announced anyone 65 and over without a booster is going to be banned from public indoor spaces in December. 

My guess is we’ll soon see a few more places start that sort of thing - if you’re in a group most likely to need hospitalisation if you catch it, and you refuse to get vaccinated/booster jab, then you’ll have to lock down. Was mooted on here many many months ago and we’re now seeing it start across Europe.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

28 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Netherlands has high vax but relatively low prior infection so I would expect high numbers/growth.  Germany relatively low vax and relatively low infection so i would also expect big numbers.

Spain, Portugal and Italy: high vax and high prior infection.  Would expect lower growth.

Former Warsaw pact: v. low vax, low prior Infection: off the chart big returns expected.

Everything is going  according to expectations based on the two ways of getting immunity I would have thought (though winter begins to hit at different times so picture is still emerging)

France is the outlier and doesn't fit the pattern, their relative success (right now and thus far) reflects badly on whoever else you want to compare to them... Which might explain the recent interet pout tout ce qui est francais on here of late.

You may need to explain what that means to younger posters @Barbe bleu🤣 it's been a while since I saw that !

[Mark .Y. 351]

Some background info on the situation in the Netherlands...............

 

The Netherlands started its coronavirus booster vaccination campaign on Thursday, with the over 80s and hospital staff first in line for the top-up jab. The government had planned to roll out the campaign in December but brought it forward two weeks under pressure from both MPs and healthcare experts.

Under current government strategy, everyone over the age of 60 will be invited for a booster jab, as will everyone living in residential care and front-line staff. The government decided to back booster jabs following reports which show the efficacy of vaccines does go down among older people over time.

Some 44% of current coronavirus hospital patients have been vaccinated but by far the majority are over the age of 70. The majority of hospital patients, however, have not been vaccinated and their average age is 59. More cases Another 20,829 coronavirus cases were confirmed in the 24 hours to Wednesday morning, as the Netherlands set a new record for the third day in a row.

Almost 83% of the over-12s in the Netherlands are now fully vaccinated against coronavirus, according to government figures. As yet, the Netherlands has no plans to vaccinate younger children, even though cases are soaring at primary schools. Figures published by public health institute RIVM earlier this week show the he virus is spreading fastest among school-age children, with 85% more infections in the five-to-nine age group and 76% more among 10 to 14-year-olds.

 

[Mark .Y. 351]

13 minutes ago, Aggy said:

 

I’m not sure it’s even as complicated as prior infection BB. Look at the status of boosters and it’s seemingly a lot more straight forward.

Not surprising the likes of Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria are seeing a need for lockdowns, because their vaccination rates for first two vaccines are very low.

Netherlands has high vax, but hasn’t even started boosters. If all the 65 year olds were vaccinated nearly a year ago now, they’re going to be seeing issues. Which they are. Same story with Belgium - high vax for the first two, but barely started boosters.

Spain, Portugal, Italy all well on with boosters (struggling to find figures other than when they started though). France - around half of the vulnerable / over 65s groups in France have already had a booster and of course they’ve announced anyone 65 and over without a booster is going to be banned from public indoor spaces in December. 

My guess is we’ll soon see a few more places start that sort of thing - if you’re in a group most likely to need hospitalisation if you catch it, and you refuse to get vaccinated/booster jab, then you’ll have to lock down. Was mooted on here many many months ago and we’re now seeing it start across Europe.

Apart from the medically vulnerable, the Netherlands didn't start vaccinating those born between 1952 - 1955 until 19th April 2021 so nowhere near a year yet Aggy. Especially as that was their first dose.

[ricardo 7,339]

3 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Apart from the medically vulnerable, the Netherlands didn't start vaccinating those born between 1952 - 1955 until 19th April 2021 so nowhere near a year yet Aggy. Especially as that was their first dose.

If they stuck to the 3 week gap then they already have degree of waning vax effect.

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

18 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Almost 83% of the over-12s in the Netherlands are now fully vaccinated against coronavirus, according to government figures. As yet, the Netherlands has no plans to vaccinate younger children, even though cases are soaring at primary schools. Figures published by public health institute RIVM earlier this week show the he virus is spreading fastest among school-age children, with 85% more infections in the five-to-nine age group and 76% more among 10 to 14-year-olds.

Thanks Mark. I think that answers my question loosely. The current Dutch infection numbers are not driven in the main by lack of boosters.

I will chat to my Dutch colleagues Monday and ask for their perspective! I'll put it up here.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Mark .Y. 351]

Some booster data (can't add Portugal for some reason) ......

[Barbe bleu 812]

45 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

You may need to explain what that means to younger posters @Barbe bleu🤣 it's been a while since I saw that !

I once saw a Lithuanian almost explode when someone called her Eastern European  rather than Northern European so, ironically, I thought this neutral term!

My grandad told me about the Warsaw pact and mysterious places called  yugoslavia and czechoslovakia that I dont believe ever existed...

Edited November 19, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Well b back 3,186]

8 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Some booster data (can't add Portugal for some reason) ......

Many EU countries Portugal in particular are not declaring their booster figures to world data. Unless we were misled don’t forget EU started 4 months after us and did not use AZ. If you are over 65 in some EU countries and you do not have your booster at 6 months your freedoms are taken away.

[Aggy 750]

58 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Apart from the medically vulnerable, the Netherlands didn't start vaccinating those born between 1952 - 1955 until 19th April 2021 so nowhere near a year yet Aggy. Especially as that was their first dose.

So over 70s would have been vaccinated over 7 months ago? Which then ties in with your other post above saying the majority in hospital are over 70. Probably not a coincidence that the majority in hospital are the most vulnerable group, who were vaccinated over 7 months ago, and who haven’t yet had a booster.

[Aggy 750]

8 minutes ago, Aggy said:

So over 70s would have been vaccinated over 7 months ago? Which then ties in with your other post above saying the majority in hospital are over 70. Probably not a coincidence that the majority in hospital are the most vulnerable group, who were vaccinated over 7 months ago, and who haven’t yet had a booster.

Having re-read your post mark, I should specify that it’s the majority of those vaccinated in hospital who are over 70. 

So 44 per cent of hospitalisations in the Netherlands are people who are vaccinated, and of those the majority are over 70 (with waning immunity as were vaccinated over 6 months ago). The other 56 per cent are not vaccinated. 

Difficult to argue against vaccines (and boosters) on that evidence!

Edited November 19, 2021 by Aggy

[Aggy 750]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Thanks Mark. I think that answers my question loosely. The current Dutch infection numbers are not driven in the main by lack of boosters.

I will chat to my Dutch colleagues Monday and ask for their perspective! I'll put it up here.

Numbers perhaps not, but undoubtedly hospitalisations are driven by lack of vaccines (56 per cent of covid hospitalisations) and waning immunity in the over 70s who were jabbed over 6 months ago (most of the other 44 per cent of covid hospitalisations).

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

I guess I had just seen it pretty simplistically :

 

Israel vaccinated first and then started to see increased cases earlier in the year, which came down after they rolled out boosters.

 

The UK was next with its vaccine programme and saw an increased number of cases after a similar delay to Israel which has come down after rolling out boosters.

The EU was some was behind the UK in its vaccine programme and has now started to see an increased number of cases and is now starting to roll out boosters....

 

I'm sure there can be plenty of other factors but I haven't seen anything to say this is not the main reason for this repeated pattern as yet.  Certainly we should be keeping a very close eye on what happens now and next few months  in Israel !!

[Aggy 750]

57 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I guess I had just seen it pretty simplistically :

 

Israel vaccinated first and then started to see increased cases earlier in the year, which came down after they rolled out boosters.

 

The UK was next with its vaccine programme and saw an increased number of cases after a similar delay to Israel which has come down after rolling out boosters.

The EU was some was behind the UK in its vaccine programme and has now started to see an increased number of cases and is now starting to roll out boosters....

 

I'm sure there can be plenty of other factors but I haven't seen anything to say this is not the main reason for this repeated pattern as yet.  Certainly we should be keeping a very close eye on what happens now and next few months  in Israel !!

I’m not sure that is exactly right when it comes to cases. Hospitalisations / serious illness yes that does look pretty much how it is - the sooner your elderly and vulnerable were jabbed, the sooner their immunity started to wane, the sooner they started to be hospitalised in higher numbers again until (if) they got more boosters.

Cases though have fluctuated more and the Netherlands, as Mark and YF point out, does probably suggest to me that boosters aren’t the main part of case numbers. Our booster numbers are some of the best in Europe but our case numbers aren’t. To be honest though, as I’m sure you know, I’m of the view that case numbers are pretty irrelevant on their own and it’s really all about the hospitalisations. 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Aggy

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

6 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I can understand some of the stuff you post about CM but I'm not quite sure why you keep hammering the UK for it's vaccination programme. This chart shows ourselves, France and Germany all very close in % of population fully vaccinated. I have included Spain to show that some countries have really outdone the 3 of us.

 

I don't keep hammering the UK for its vaccination program which in general has been pretty successful albeit I think it is perfectly reasonable to say that the booster rollout was initially shambolic - though TBF that was nothing to do with the NHS Vaccination program and everything to do with this government's longstanding and complete inability to come up with simple, accurate and clear messages about the virus.

In fact I'm pretty sure that I've never 'hammered' the UK vaccination program & I've been very happy to be a beneficiary of it - what I have done on a few occasions though is to push back against the sort of nationalistic triumphalism we heard quite a lot of earlier in the year that our vaccine program was unique and a success which no other country would match whereas in practice although they may have started a bit later than us many countries have not just caught us up but overtaken us.

Anyway there was deinitely no criticism of our vaccine program in my post you replied to - I was simply pointing out that @Ricardo, who seems to delight in any problems our European neighbours may hit and use them as an excuse to peddle the same old myth that 'there wouldnt be a fag packet between them when all is done and dusted' is completely wrong.

We all know, @ricardo better than many, that the vaccines have completely changed the arithmetic of the virus.and therefore countries like the US & UK that performed very badly last year in terms of unnecessary deaths are inevitably still going be poor performers in the final analysis. So given the huge existing discrepany in deaths between UK and Germany, even another wave of virus isn't going to change that gap much since both countries have pretty good levels of vaccine meaning the death toll will be of a completely different order to the last year without vaccine.

The whole point of restrictions last year was to buy time until we had a vaccine and some countries played it a lot better than others and protected their citizens much better than others, and the vaccine is gradually baking those differences in as it scales back the death tolls for everyone - we are not all, despite @ricardo's protestations, going to come out of this with very similar overall outcomes.

[ricardo 7,339]

20 minutes ago, Aggy said:

 

Cases though have fluctuated more and the Netherlands, as Mark and YF point out, does probably suggest to me that boosters aren’t the main part of case numbers. Our booster numbers are some of the best in Europe but our case numbers aren’t. To be honest though, as I’m sure you know, I’m of the view that case numbers are pretty irrelevant on their own and it’s really all about the hospitalisations. 

In the final analysis it will just be about deaths. Lots of things can be fudged but excess deaths will tell the story.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I once saw a Lithuanian almost explode when someone called her Eastern European  rather than Northern European so, ironically, I thought this neutral term!

My grandad told me about the Warsaw pact and mysterious places called  yugoslavia and czechoslovakia that I dont believe ever existed...

I work with several Lithuanians, I'm gonna try that out on them Monday 😀

The Anti-Nowhere League released a live album "Live in Yugoslavia" where the singer, Animal, can be heard referring to the audience as "you dirty little Yugo's", or something similar (long time ago!)

[ricardo 7,339]

 

 

9 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I don't keep hammering the UK for its vaccination program which in general has been pretty successful albeit I think it is perfectly reasonable to say that the booster rollout was initially shambolic - though TBF that was nothing to do with the NHS Vaccination program and everything to do with this government's longstanding and complete inability to come up with simple, accurate and clear messages about the virus.

In fact I'm pretty sure that I've never 'hammered' the UK vaccination program & I've been very happy to be a beneficiary of it - what I have done on a few occasions though is to push back against the sort of nationalistic triumphalism we heard quite a lot of earlier in the year that our vaccine program was unique and a success which no other country would match whereas in practice although they may have started a bit later than us many countries have not just caught us up but overtaken us.

Anyway there was deinitely no criticism of our vaccine program in my post you replied to - I was simply pointing out that @Ricardo, who seems to delight in any problems our European neighbours may hit and use them as an excuse to peddle the same old myth that 'there wouldnt be a fag packet between them when all is done and dusted' is completely wrong.

We all know, @ricardo better than many, that the vaccines have completely changed the arithmetic of the virus.and therefore countries like the US & UK that performed very badly last year in terms of unnecessary deaths are inevitably still going be poor performers in the final analysis. So given the huge existing discrepany in deaths between UK and Germany, even another wave of virus isn't going to change that gap much since both countries have pretty good levels of vaccine meaning the death toll will be of a completely different order to the last year without vaccine.

The whole point of restrictions last year was to buy time until we had a vaccine and some countries played it a lot better than others and protected their citizens much better than others, and the vaccine is gradually baking those differences in as it scales back the death tolls for everyone - we are not all, despite @ricardo's protestations, going to come out of this with very similar overall outcomes.

In the current European deaths per million list the UK is 19th

Hungary 5th

Romania 8th

Belgium 14th

Italy 15th

Poland 17th

Spain 20th

France 22nd

Sweden 28th

Germany 34th

and Iceland best of all in 47th

 

[KernowCanary 214]

Iceland are going for the herd immunity approach now and have been since about July or August time. Looks like it’s kind of working for them, not forgetting the successful vaccine programme.