Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,339]

44 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Your wrong Ricardo.

They buy time for better treatments, better understanding, better vaccines.

And of course they let us manage the numbers needing help at any one time - 'flatten' the curve.

Let it rip ? Are you going be the one that decides who gets treated or not at hospital. Over 70. Here's some paracetamol.

Truth is we don't really know what better treatments are round the corner so we as always play for time. That's worked out pretty well so far.

I refer you to the current numbers of those countries that thought continuing lockdown throughout the summer was somehow a good idea.

[sonyc 5,488]

Really interesting note here (including some new graphs 😅...because we all love those -  that I had not seen before) on the effect of boosters (to reinforce @Well b back and his posts). Fuller thread opens in 4 points including the amazing effect of boosters on waning by age group.

 

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

42 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I refer you to the current numbers of those countries that thought continuing lockdown throughout the summer was somehow a good idea.

That isn't a particularly persuasive argument - not sure who you are including there but you said something very similar about France, Spain & Italy a couple of weeks ago because their numbers were starting to rise a bit.

But as I pointed out at the time they were only rising gently (and have continued to do so) and having been at a tiny fraction of our numbers for months and months they have still only risen to a small fraction of the level that we have been seeing since July - that applies to the numbers whether you are talking cases, hospitalisations or deaths.

Germany (and Poland) seem to have hit a bit of a bad patch but given the levels of virus that we have seen ever since the unlock and still rising again now, I would think that most West European countries think they've done pretty well by comparison, just as they have done on vaccination.

[ricardo 7,339]

22 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That isn't a particularly persuasive argument - not sure who you are including there but you said something very similar about France, Spain & Italy a couple of weeks ago because their numbers were starting to rise a bit.

But as I pointed out at the time they were only rising gently (and have continued to do so) and having been at a tiny fraction of our numbers for months and months they have still only risen to a small fraction of the level that we have been seeing since July - that applies to the numbers whether you are talking cases, hospitalisations or deaths.

Germany (and Poland) seem to have hit a bit of a bad patch but given the levels of virus that we have seen ever since the unlock and still rising again now, I would think that most West European countries think they've done pretty well by comparison, just as they have done on vaccination.

I detect a certain desperation here. Remember how Germany used to be one of your poster boys? Holland, Austria and Denmark were also remarkably low at that time. Many months ago you disputed my statement that there wouldnt be a fag packet between them when all is done and dusted and sadly that is proving to be true.

Different countries peak at different times and those that did well early on are doing badly now. It would be nice to think that the three countries you are now promoting will not see the explosion that is happening in the rest of Europe but I wouldnt put money on it. Yes it looked bad for the UK in Jan and Feb when we headed the deaths per million list. We are now about to drop out of the top 30.

Another record day in Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium etc etc

 

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by ricardo

[Well b back 3,186]

13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Really interesting note here (including some new graphs 😅...because we all love those -  that I had not seen before) on the effect of boosters (to reinforce @Well b back and his posts). Fuller thread opens in 4 points including the amazing effect of boosters on waning by age group.

 

 

Sums it up pretty well. In some countries you are being shut away if you don’t have your booster. There should be ads everywhere you look, and hard hitting. Lots of our older age groups are just not getting it done, some of that is because their younger relatives that wheeled them down for doses 1 and 2 just are not aware how important this is. 
With Europe now opening to all age groups before the EU medicines agency even approve the boosters at over 18 that shows where we should all be. I hope there is nothing sinister here like we don’t have enough vaccine supplies, or worse still Johnson still does not get the importance of the boosters.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

I detect a certain desperation here. Remember how Germany used to be one of your poster boys? Holland, Austria and Denmark were also remarkably low at that time. Many months ago you disputed my statement that there wouldnt be a fag packet between them when all is done and dusted and sadly that is proving to be true.

No, it isn't - Germany have certainly performed far better than us right from the start and a blip now is neither here nor there in the overall scheme of things.

Their deaths per 1m are only just over 50% of ours and given the level of vaccinations in place now in both places there isn't a chance in hell that when it is 'all done and dusted' that there will be any signifcant change to that position.

And of course you Tories are always very keen to sell the myth that the restrictions had to be lifted despite the health risks in order to drive the economic recovery - unfortunate therefore that we have also been out-performed economically by those european countries who 'thought continuing lockdown throughout the summer was somehow a good idea'.

Turns out that they knew something that we didn't.

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

I refer you to the current numbers of those countries that thought continuing lockdown throughout the summer was somehow a good idea.

You've missed the central point. If I follow your logic we should of let it rip autumn 2020. No need for masks and lockdowns or TIME for the vaccines to be developed, qualified and released.

It would of certainly solved the social care issue.

[KernowCanary 214]

Too true the ads should be hard-hitting, none of this stupid glow round peoples bodies rubbish, or ad campaigns trying to add humour…. NO, it should be hard hitting and to the point.

A fair few pages ago in this thread I made the same point myself by posting the public information video for AIDS, which I did to make that same point.

People got really seriously worried about the illness after seeing that ad and reading the leaflets people got in their doors, simply because they were hard hitting and to the point.

If the AIDS ads were like the Covid ones today, God knows how many more would have died of it in 1985.

The “Look into her eyes and tell her Covid is a hoax” one is the only time we got close to being with a serious ad campaign, but it isn’t memorable in comparison to the AIDS one. People still remember the AIDS ads, I doubt anyone will with the Covid and booster ones, just Chris Witty talking all stern to a camera.

Its time for the government to watch that AIDS ad from 1985 and use it as an inspiration for a boosters one, as we are still having five million selfish gits not bothering.

[ricardo 7,339]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

You've missed the central point. If I follow your logic we should of let it rip autumn 2020. No need for masks and lockdowns or TIME for the vaccines to be developed, qualified and released.

It would of certainly solved the social care issue.

The lifting of lockdown and easing of restrictions in July has certainly proved to be the right course of action. That fact is now as clear as day, we have been relatively restriction free for four months, just as the lockersdown reach panic mode.

The data as always speaks for itself.

Edited November 19, 2021 by ricardo

[Well b back 3,186]

A few of you were asking where you can get proof of boosters. It has just been announced that they will now be added to your COVID pass on the NHS app as several countries will not allow access without a 3rd shot

BREAKINGBoosters can be added to NHS Covid Pass for travel

Travellers who have had a booster or a third dose will be able to demonstrate their vaccine status through the NHS Covid Pass from today, the government has announced. 

It will enable those who have had their booster or third dose to travel to countries including Israel, Croatia and Austria, who have already introduced a time limit for the Covid-19 vaccine to be valid for quarantine-free travel.

[ricardo 7,339]

10 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

No, it isn't - Germany have certainly performed far better than us right from the start and a blip now is neither here nor there in the overall scheme of things.

Their deaths per 1m are only just over 50% of ours and given the level of vaccinations in place now in both places there isn't a chance in hell that when it is 'all done and dusted' that there will be any signifcant change to that position.

And of course you Tories are always very keen to sell the myth that the restrictions had to be lifted despite the health risks in order to drive the economic recovery - unfortunate therefore that we have also been out-performed economically by those european countries who 'thought continuing lockdown throughout the summer was somehow a good idea'.

Turns out that they knew something that we didn't.

Take off your blinkers, the data doesn't  have a political agenda.

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

25 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The lifting of lockdown and easing of restrictions in July has certainly proved to be the right course of action. That fact is now as clear as day, we have been relatively restriction free for four months, just as the lockersdown reach panic mode.

The data as always speaks for itself.

The data is far from complete Ricardo. We've run 'hot' through the summer and accepted a continuous high level of infection, hospitalization and deaths (they are at about 20 to 25% of last Spring - still a plane crash per day) but as yet the data and jury is out what will happen next. Comparisons to say France or Germany are very very flawed as their recent 'spike' is very visible as it comes from a very very low level and only now has comparable numbers to what we have here already. It's the nature of exponential growth. Germany is also taking prompt action.

I note today that Zoe has started to move up again - 66.6K 'estimated'. For those that believe in luck or superstition an odd number to be sure!

PCR tests as you note daily have also started to shift upward quickly (is it our 4th wave or just a wavelet) - only a few thousand now off the 52K peak before the kids went on hols.

In short trying to 'justify' our approach on the basis of what is happening in some selected European countries is simply premature.

We need to get everybody boosted asap as per elsewhere and if need be slow the spread to ensure we have the time to do this.

[Mark .Y. 351]

11 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That isn't a particularly persuasive argument - not sure who you are including there but you said something very similar about France, Spain & Italy a couple of weeks ago because their numbers were starting to rise a bit.

But as I pointed out at the time they were only rising gently (and have continued to do so) and having been at a tiny fraction of our numbers for months and months they have still only risen to a small fraction of the level that we have been seeing since July - that applies to the numbers whether you are talking cases, hospitalisations or deaths.

Germany (and Poland) seem to have hit a bit of a bad patch but given the levels of virus that we have seen ever since the unlock and still rising again now, I would think that most West European countries think they've done pretty well by comparison, just as they have done on vaccination.

I can understand some of the stuff you post about CM but I'm not quite sure why you keep hammering the UK for it's vaccination programme. This chart shows ourselves, France and Germany all very close in % of population fully vaccinated. I have included Spain to show that some countries have really outdone the 3 of us.

 

[ricardo 7,339]

19 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The data is far from complete Ricardo. We've run 'hot' through the summer and accepted a continuous high level of infection, hospitalization and deaths (they are at about 20 to 25% of last Spring - still a plane crash per day) but as yet the data and jury is out what will happen next. Comparisons to say France or Germany are very very flawed as their recent 'spike' is very visible as it comes from a very very low level and only now has comparable numbers to what we have here already. It's the nature of exponential growth. Germany is also taking prompt action.

I note today that Zoe has started to move up again - 66.6K 'estimated'. For those that believe in luck or superstition an odd number to be sure!

PCR tests as you note daily have also started to shift upward quickly (is it our 4th wave or just a wavelet) - only a few thousand now off the 52K peak before the kids went on hols.

In short trying to 'justify' our approach on the basis of what is happening in some selected European countries is simply premature.

We need to get everybody boosted asap as per elsewhere and if need be slow the spread to ensure we have the time to do this.

Moving the peak forward has certainly helped by spreading the load of hospital admissions. Yes, I note the slight increase in ZOE yesterday which is reflected in the present uptick. The worry in Europe is that much of it is now returning numbers well above the 100k UK equivalent (a figure we never reached) and not just Central and Eastern Europe, the Netherlands and Belgium also. Unless Spain, France and Italy have some as yet unquantified advantage then we can expect a similar situation there very soon.

[ricardo 7,339]

42 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I can understand some of the stuff you post about CM but I'm not quite sure why you keep hammering the UK for it's vaccination programme. This chart shows ourselves, France and Germany all very close in % of population fully vaccinated. I have included Spain to show that some countries have really outdone the 3 of us.

 

How have Netherlands, Belgium and Austria have done in this respect.

Looks like Austria have just announced  that vaccination is going to become compulsory.

Edited November 19, 2021 by ricardo

[Indy 3,283]

24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

How have Netherlands, Belgium and Austria have done in this respect.

Looks like Austria have just announced  that vaccination is going to become compulsory.

Indeed, they appear to be going into a lockdown too! I don’t have an issue with compulsory vaccines but it becomes very draconian like nearly dictatorial to impose it! I totally agree with anyone who chooses not to be vaccinated then needs treatment for Covid should be charged in full.

Is it time to just accept we have vaccines more effective vaccines are coming and if those who don’t want to be vaccinated are at their own risk? Just get on with life as we are all going to die at some point, so as long as we can protect the NHS and those who are vulnerable by vaccines then it’s the best of the situation? Maybe it’s time to live with it.

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

32 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Moving the peak forward has certainly helped by spreading the load of hospital admissions. Yes, I note the slight increase in ZOE yesterday which is reflected in the present uptick. The worry in Europe is that much of it is now returning numbers well above the 100k UK equivalent (a figure we never reached) and not just Central and Eastern Europe, the Netherlands and Belgium also. Unless Spain, France and Italy have some as yet unquantified advantage then we can expect a similar situation there very soon.

And our own ONS is what one in 60 - say about 100K/day ?

I'm actually far more interested in where WE go from here - other countries are interesting  but all have slightly different climates, vaccinations schedules and demographics/cultures let alone vaccine take up and mask/social distancing guidelines.

It is noticeable however that even here over the last few recent days I'm seeing a lot more mask wearing. 

[Indy 3,283]

5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

And our own ONS is what one in 60 - say about 100K/day ?

I'm actually far more interested in where WE go from here - other countries are interesting  but all have slightly different climates, vaccinations schedules and demographics/cultures let alone vaccine take up and mask/social distancing guidelines.

It is noticeable however that even here over the last few recent days I'm seeing a lot more mask wearing. 

I’ve never stopped wearing masks and using the hand sanitiser. I was a little concerned when it became not mandatory, I hoped that more businesses would implement them in their stores, transportation, but it went totally the other way and allowed people to just think we’re back to normal.

It’s going to be a lot harder next time to implement any type of lockdown, I don’t think people will be as compliant as they have been, certainly not as this government has shown to be a despicable in morals and disorganised in performance.

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

24 minutes ago, Indy said:

I’ve never stopped wearing masks and using the hand sanitiser. I was a little concerned when it became not mandatory, I hoped that more businesses would implement them in their stores, transportation, but it went totally the other way and allowed people to just think we’re back to normal.

It’s going to be a lot harder next time to implement any type of lockdown, I don’t think people will be as compliant as they have been, certainly not as this government has shown to be a despicable in morals and disorganised in performance.

Yes agreed - it's actually all I ask was to bring back mandatory masks and some social distancing to keep some downward pressure on cases. Nobody wants another Christmas 'lockdown' so every little helps to avoid that especially if only a minor inconvenience.

Currently what we have is the government (or Johnson) as ever head in the sand & hoping everything will turn out all right. Everything is rosy in Johnson's La La land despite the headlights of the enrushing high speed train 😉

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

. 

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Aggy 750]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

I can understand some of the stuff you post about CM but I'm not quite sure why you keep hammering the UK for it's vaccination programme. This chart shows ourselves, France and Germany all very close in % of population fully vaccinated. I have included Spain to show that some countries have really outdone the 3 of us.

 

Could you run the chart again with Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia as well pls?They’re all going into either full or partial lockdowns and I think they’re all well below our c.70 per cent. There aren’t many places with a higher percentage of people vaccinated than here - agree the vaccination roll out here is one thing we can’t moan too much about.

Is this chart also including everyone (children too) do you know?

[Aggy 750]

50 minutes ago, Indy said:

Indeed, they appear to be going into a lockdown too! I don’t have an issue with compulsory vaccines but it becomes very draconian like nearly dictatorial to impose it! I totally agree with anyone who chooses not to be vaccinated then needs treatment for Covid should be charged in full.

Is it time to just accept we have vaccines more effective vaccines are coming and if those who don’t want to be vaccinated are at their own risk? Just get on with life as we are all going to die at some point, so as long as we can protect the NHS and those who are vulnerable by vaccines then it’s the best of the situation? Maybe it’s time to live with it.

Making it law comes back to the point I made previously - why is it legal for people to choose to risk their lives and risk putting pressure on the health system by smoking, drinking, becoming obese (etc.) but they can’t choose whether or not to have a vaccine? 

And if it’s because smoking, drinking etc only have an indirect effect on other people (ie overwhelming hospitals and perhaps passive smoking, being hit by drunk drivers etc.) then what about things like flu? Compulsory to get the flu jab? 
 

[ricardo 7,339]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

And our own ONS is what one in 60 - say about 100K/day ?

 

 

God only knows what their ONS equivalent numbers must be when they have already exceeded that number in open testing with far fewer tests per million.

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

God only knows what their ONS equivalent numbers must be when they have already exceeded that number in open testing with far fewer tests per million.

Lothar Wieler told reporters that with record-breaking infection levels, the nationwide curbs on the unvaccinated were insufficient. As cases have topped 300 per 100,000 people, the rules for public spaces “are no longer enough in the current situation”, he said, calling it an “absolute emergency”.

[ricardo 7,339]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

I’ve never stopped wearing masks and using the hand sanitiser. I was a little concerned when it became not mandatory, I hoped that more businesses would implement them in their stores, transportation, but it went totally the other way and allowed people to just think we’re back to normal.

It’s going to be a lot harder next time to implement any type of lockdown, I don’t think people will be as compliant as they have been, certainly not as this government has shown to be a despicable in morals and disorganised in performance.

Most people continue to wear masks in shops as far as I can tell and are wary of crowded situations. This is perfectly normal behaviour. Outdoors however life long ago returned to near normal. Most pubs and resturants that I have been to now have covered open air facilities. Lockdowns should only be necessary to alleviate pressure on health services.

[ricardo 7,339]

ZOE up another 2.5% today.

Edited November 19, 2021 by ricardo

[Yellow Fever 3,736]

ONS Infection Survey (yes a week + behind the curve)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/19november2021

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Good news on the ONS numbers today which show a further decline in England from 1.70% of the population with Covid the week before to 1.51% now.  So a decline from over 2% to 1.5% over a 2 week period is great.

 

But hold on ICF (I hear you say) does this not contradict the increasing PCR and Zoe numbers we've been seeing for some days now, which is right and which is wrong ?  And my answer is, not at all, these ONS numbers (again) are fully consistent with the PCR numbers (I never put a lot of faith in Zoe now so I don't track it that much).  This is because the ONS numbers cover the period ending 13th November, when cases were still falling on the PCR test numbers, so the PCR and ONS numbers are continuing to move in step when you look at the dates they cover.

 

Going forward, I therefore expect the ONS numbers that come out next Friday will show case numbers starting to increase, as we've seen recently in the PCR numbers.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

5 hours ago, ricardo said:

Take off your blinkers, the data doesn't  have a political agenda.

No, it doesn't which is why I quoted it, you on the other hand.......

[Mark .Y. 351]

4 hours ago, Indy said:

I’ve never stopped wearing masks and using the hand sanitiser. I was a little concerned when it became not mandatory, I hoped that more businesses would implement them in their stores, transportation, but it went totally the other way and allowed people to just think we’re back to normal.

It’s going to be a lot harder next time to implement any type of lockdown, I don’t think people will be as compliant as they have been, certainly not as this government has shown to be a despicable in morals and disorganised in performance.

I have to say that I very rarely wear a mask now, have to when volunteering at the vaccine centre but that is about it. And, to be honest, I see very few others wearing them either.

I do sanitise regularly though, both when entering and leaving shops usually.  

[Mark .Y. 351]

Earlier chart with the requested countries on it. Belgium and Netherlands have fully vaccinated more of their total population than the UK/France/Germany but the other three cited countries are all below (particularly in the case of Slovakia !!).

Makes the Netherlands, with their very high case numbers, something of an awkward question doesn't it ???