Corona Virus main thread

[KernowCanary 214]

It seems to me all these lockdowns and restrictions have simply delayed things, rather than actually putting a stop to it all happening. Such as surges in Western Europe, while Northern Europe are just getting on with their daily lives now, knowing what all these responses do when we look at the long term.

Surpressing the thing so aggressively then easing off has not done any country any favours. Germany keeps breaking its own domestic record time and time again now, this wouldn’t be the case if all these “lockdown lites” never happened.

Edited November 18, 2021 by KernowCanary

[Well b back 3,190]

7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Still plenty of time to pass before the end of the coming winter.   Rises in Germany, the Netherlands etc as they begin to enter winter were inevitable and entirely foreseeable  but sustained rises in Portugal, Spain and Italy, with high vaccination rates and high levels of prior infection might still indicate trouble for us on the horizon. Problem is they get winter proper later so we night already be there by then...

Indeed

BJ hasn’t mentioned these countries for nearly 4 months. It does seem coincidental that those with the highest rates ( us included ) have the lowest vaccination rates and less restrictions. Let’s hope that Portugal, France, Spain, Italy and of course Israel hold up or it will be a long winter.

[sonyc 5,492]

A few of us have pondered the effectiveness of masks...one global study report here (in summary):

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/wearing-masks-is-single-most-effective-way-to-beat-covid-study-finds-300784

Along with other measures, masks seem to offer the best single protection against spread.

I recall one very early report suggesting 9% (which even so is not insignificant).

Edited November 18, 2021 by sonyc

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

A few of us have pondered the effectiveness of masks...one global study report here (in summary):

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/wearing-masks-is-single-most-effective-way-to-beat-covid-study-finds-300784

Along with other measures, masks seem to offer the best single protection against spread.

I recall one very early report suggesting 9% (which even so is not insignificant).

I'm going to dig out the study itself ( I wish articles would link routinely link to them) as the headline seems to make a really big and really important claim.  If mask wearing really is twice as effective as distancing requirements and really does reduce infection by half as is implied this could be really big news, not just for where we are and how we review steps taken over the last few years but for how we live our lives well into the future.

I am not sure why a vaccine  programme is no longer a public health measure/initiative.  That re-defining of public health seems to be a bit of an insult to the profession but that's an incidental observation.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

13 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm going to dig out the study itself ( I wish articles would link routinely link to them) as the headline seems to make a really big and really important claim.  If mask wearing really is twice as effective as distancing requirements and really does reduce infection by half as is implied this could be really big news, not just for where we are and how we review steps taken over the last few years but for how we live our lives well into the future.

I am not sure why a vaccine  programme is no longer a public health measure/initiative.  That re-defining of public health seems to be a bit of an insult to the profession but that's an incidental observation.

 

Made to wear them in Portugal, France, Spain and Italy.

[Well b back 3,190]

Several European countries now making boosters available for everybody above 18 and not just older age groups at 6 months.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

A few of us have pondered the effectiveness of masks...one global study report here (in summary):

https://www.joe.co.uk/news/wearing-masks-is-single-most-effective-way-to-beat-covid-study-finds-300784

Along with other measures, masks seem to offer the best single protection against spread.

I recall one very early report suggesting 9% (which even so is not insignificant).

I find this interesting SC. A while back I commented on here that I wondered if masks and social distancing where far more effective than we gave them credit for - they've always been associated here and largely used in conjunctions with full 'lockdowns' in the past and then a rapid reduction in cases (with or without vaccines). As we now know vaccines of themselves don't really stop infections. 

In short we may be giving undue credit to vaccines (critical though to stop symptomatic cases so get jabbed asap) and full lockdowns as opposed to the simpler mask wearing and modest social distancing to reduce infection. Even now as cases soar in places we rush to boosters but forget the associated masks - c.f.  'Israel'.

Just a hunch which is likely oversimplified.  

Edited November 18, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Made to wear them in Portugal, France, Spain and Italy.

Yes - and they are doing well - see just now comment 😉

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

No matter how the figures pan out, surely any precaution is worthwhile. We shouldn't downplay anything just because it is only 60% effective. Vaccines, lockdowns, mask wearing and social distancing must all have contributed to only a small percentage of our population suffering from the virus.

[Well b back 3,190]

11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I find this interesting SC. A while back I commented on here that I wondered if masks and social distancing where far more effective than we gave them credit for - they've always been associated here and largely used in conjunctions with full 'lockdowns' in the past and then a rapid reduction in cases (with or without vaccines). As we now know vaccines of themselves don't really stop infections. 

In short we may be giving undue credit to vaccines (critical though to stop symptomatic cases so get jabbed asap) and full lockdowns as opposed to the simpler mask wearing and modest social distancing to reduce infection. Even now as cases soar in places we rush to boosters but forget the associated masks - c.f.  'Israel'.

Just a hunch which is likely oversimplified.  

I would not want to go to a crowded place without a booster ( especially if my jabs were AZ ) after 6 months, wearing no mask and being in someone’s face.

I will happily stand corrected but government advice I thought at the moment was to wear a mask in enclosed areas, but not compulsory.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just now, Well b back said:

I would not want to go to a crowded place without a booster ( especially if my jabs were AZ ) after 6 months, wearing no mask and being in someone’s face.

I will happily stand corrected but government advice I thought at the moment was to wear a mask in enclosed areas, but not compulsory.

My son and I haven't been to our local rugby club all season. Its busy enough in the clubhouse before the game but I know what it is like in the clubhouse afterwards and it really is a maelstrom of people and usually a bunch from up country, the opposition. My son's daughter has Diabetes One and it just isn't worth the risk.

[Barbe bleu 814]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I would not want to go to a crowded place without a booster ( especially if my jabs were AZ ) after 6 months, wearing no mask and being in someone’s face.

I will happily stand corrected but government advice I thought at the moment was to wear a mask in enclosed areas, but not compulsory.

You are correct. Advice to wear masks is still current

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do?priority-taxon=774cee22-d896-44c1-a611-e3109cce8eae

I am not sure i would go as far as suggesting that masks are better than vaccines even if the 53% figure is correct (compared to some of the lower figures for vaccine efficacy after a period of time). After all, a mask might reduce infections but there is no evidence of a reduction in severity of disease, which must be the overriding goal of any intervention, particularly as it will be with us for a while yet - and everyone will probably get their chance eventually, mask or no mask.

But these things are not mutually exclusive so I take the view that if its no imposition on me why would I  not take all precautions?

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

You are correct. Advice to wear masks is still current

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do?priority-taxon=774cee22-d896-44c1-a611-e3109cce8eae

I am not sure i would go as far as suggesting that masks are better than vaccines even if the 53% figure is correct (compared to some of the lower figures for vaccine efficacy after a period of time). After all, a mask might reduce infections but there is no evidence of a reduction in severity of disease, which must be the overriding goal of any intervention, particularly as it will be with us for a while yet - and everyone will probably get their chance eventually, mask or no mask.

But these things are not mutually exclusive so I take the view that if its no imposition on me why would I  not take all precautions?

I think a combination of all is the best protection, I would say vaccine kept up to date ( boosters etc ) is best single protection.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

19 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I would not want to go to a crowded place without a booster ( especially if my jabs were AZ ) after 6 months, wearing no mask and being in someone’s face.

I will happily stand corrected but government advice I thought at the moment was to wear a mask in enclosed areas, but not compulsory.

I'm not questioning vaccines to limit symptomatic disease but what's more effective at stopping the spread i.e. case numbers and then the sudden drops.

It's really why I'd rather on the basis of caution implement a plan B as opposed to placing all your eggs in the vaccine basket - given what we are seeing elsewhere already. It's a hell of a risk with the general public otherwise. 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

“A coronavirus drug derived from immune cells of Covid survivors gives better protection than vaccines after six months and could last for a year, trial results suggest.
AstraZeneca today announced that its antibody injection AZD7442 reduces the risk of symptomatic Covid by 83 per cent six months after a single dose.
In contrast, vaccines can wane substantially in the months following an injection, even after two doses, with the AstraZeneca vaccine falling to around 40 per cent effectiveness, and Pfizer about 60 per cent.”
 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

“A coronavirus drug derived from immune cells of Covid survivors gives better protection than vaccines after six months and could last for a year, trial results suggest.
AstraZeneca today announced that its antibody injection AZD7442 reduces the risk of symptomatic Covid by 83 per cent six months after a single dose.
In contrast, vaccines can wane substantially in the months following an injection, even after two doses, with the AstraZeneca vaccine falling to around 40 per cent effectiveness, and Pfizer about 60 per cent.”
 

Any idea of how we make drugs from people's cells? It does sound a very complicated process. Are the cells duplicated or synthesised? Are there enough labs to do this as so many are producing the vaccine for the rest of the world.

[Well b back 3,190]

Just a quick reminder of those eligible for boosters, please get them done. The system should allow you to book not long after 5 months from jab 2. Don’t delay, don’t wait for letters or texts, if you are eligible you are eligible and it is vital you get them done as soon as you can.

There have been some changes this week in the UK about who can get their booster jabs - and about teenagers' vaccinations. So what is the new guidance? Here's a recap. 

All over-40s in the UK can now have a booster jab, as long as it's been six months after their second vaccine. 

A booster is an extra dose of Covid vaccine, which helps prolong protection in the double-jabbed. 

Having three doses offers a 93% protection against symptomatic disease, according to UK Health Security Agency data. You can now get a third dose if you're in one of these categories:

• You're aged 40 or over
• You're aged 16 or over, with a health condition that puts you at high risk from Covid
• You're a front-line health or social care worker
• You're an adult who lives with an immunosuppressed person

Those aged 16 and 17 can now have a second vaccine, 12 weeks after their first jab. 

And pregnant women are being urged to take u

[ricardo 7,347]

National

46,807 - 199

rate of increase of 14.4% over 7 days, 6th day of rises after 3 weeks of falls.

 

Local

Norwich rate  346.1           my area, City centre West looks to have spiked  (may have to hide behind the sofa for a day or two)

All of Norwich down 7.2%

     

N&N Patients

16-11-2021                            27     down slightly from 30

Vax     

1st Dose      33,092              88.1% done                               Norwich numbers   77.3% 

2nd Dose     22,120              80.1% done                                                                  70.2%

Booster     384,421     total          13,879,311                 24.1%

In Hospital           ( numbers falling back quite quickly now )

17-11-2021	8,174
16-11-2021	8,434
15-11-2021	8,715
14-11-2021	8,562
13-11-2021	8,479
12-11-2021	8,616
11-11-2021	8,713

[ricardo 7,347]

England only data continues to affirm that case increases mainly in school age cohort.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Local

Norwich rate  346.1           my area, City centre West looks to have spiked  (may have to hide behind the sofa for a day or two)

I'm not sure playing hide and seek with the virus is going to work for long.

Is it counting to ten before it comes looking ? 

 

[ricardo 7,347]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm not sure playing hide and seek with the virus is going to work for long.

Is it counting to ten before it comes looking ? 

 

Behind my sofa is safer than a fallout shelter.😉 I use it regularly, especially when City are away from home.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Behind my sofa is safer than a fallout shelter.😉 I use it regularly, especially when City are away from home.

I know. That hasn't worked too well recently for City either but I'm hoping it won't be needed on Saturday. There was a period in the  late 80s was it when City and Southampton were almost twinned clubs  (however I still recall being at the old Dell and seeing us go down 4:0 in about 82).

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Any idea of how we make drugs from people's cells? It does sound a very complicated process. Are the cells duplicated or synthesised? Are there enough labs to do this as so many are producing the vaccine for the rest of the world.

They use antibodies which can be made in a laboratory.

[ricardo 7,347]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

I know. That hasn't worked too well recently for City either but I'm hoping it won't be needed on Saturday. There was a period in the  late 80s was it when City and Southampton were almost twinned clubs  (however I still recall being at the old Dell and seeing us go down 4:0 in about 82).

My last trip to the old Dell was a 0-0 FA Cup game, Shearer and Le Tis playing for them and Tim Flowers in goal. 1992 I think

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

My last trip to the old Dell was a 0-0 FA Cup game, Shearer and Le Tis playing for them and Tim Flowers in goal. 1992 I think

I must admit I can't really recall who was playing in the 4:0 hiding. Probably for the best. Somebody can look it up.

[Mark .Y. 351]

6 hours ago, Well b back said:

Made to wear them in Portugal, France, Spain and Italy.

Was at my place in Spain 3 weeks ago and the mask wearing at bars, restaurants and the local large shopping centre was virtually non-existent. May be because it is in Murcia which is a rural region that hasn't been hit as bad as some but I can assure you that I hardly saw a single person wearing a mask in these places.  

[ricardo 7,347]

3 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Was at my place in Spain 3 weeks ago and the mask wearing at bars, restaurants and the local large shopping centre was virtually non-existent. May be because it is in Murcia which is a rural region that hasn't been hit as bad as some but I can assure you that I hardly saw a single person wearing a mask in these places.  

Its a red herring, mask wearing, restrictions etc merely delay the inevitable slightly. Its going to go through everyone eventually. Those places that maintained restrictions through the summer have a lot of dry tinder to burn and it is now bursting into flame. Thankfully vaccination will save many from hospitalisation and death.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its a red herring, mask wearing, restrictions etc merely delay the inevitable slightly. Its going to go through everyone eventually. Those places that maintained restrictions through the summer have a lot of dry tinder to burn and it is now bursting into flame. Thankfully vaccination will save many from hospitalisation and death.

Quite right 

I  wouldn't say we should "let it rip", but getting as many people as possible vaccinated before numbers exploded was key 

[KernowCanary 214]

You know it’s almost Christmas when the annoying fragrance adverts are on, let alone the John Lewis shiße.

Now you also know Christmas is coming when the lockdown scaremongering fires up.

Edited November 18, 2021 by KernowCanary

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Its a red herring, mask wearing, restrictions etc merely delay the inevitable slightly. Its going to go through everyone eventually. Those places that maintained restrictions through the summer have a lot of dry tinder to burn and it is now bursting into flame. Thankfully vaccination will save many from hospitalisation and death.

Your wrong Ricardo.

They buy time for better treatments, better understanding, better vaccines.

And of course they let us manage the numbers needing help at any one time - 'flatten' the curve.

Let it rip ? Are you going be the one that decides who gets treated or not at hospital. Over 70. Here's some paracetamol.

Truth is we don't really know what better treatments are round the corner so we as always play for time. That's worked out pretty well so far.