Corona Virus main thread

[KernowCanary 214]

10 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I hope you are wrong!  The last time I looked into it reinfection was very rare, even with the change in variants and the study that showed immunity can come from entirely different and older coronaviruses added, as far as I was concerned, to that view.

Is this something you have seen in a study or a hunch based on the rate of growth they are experiencing?

I too hope it’s true after what you wrote and therefore I am wrong.

Its just a hunch based on the figures being amongst their national highest despite the vaccines, so it’s the growth rate like you say. In Germany a few days ago they had 40,000 in a day, that’s the most since all this started, all despite the vaccine.

[Well b back 3,190]

8 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

What has that got to do with it? You are suggesting we only follow the results that suit a particular argument.

While I have no problem with any chart published as obviously someone has used a method to prove a point, I take each one in the knowledge there will be a certain bias in the parameters used to achieve.

If Europe is beginning to struggle then it will not help us in the long run. If we are doing better than we were then that is good news.

Its not a competition. Its about trying to restrain a virus. Its about trying to convince every citizen to take the vaccine. Its about trying to return life and the economy of the World to a level prepandemic.

You have it spot on KG, BJ has not mentioned Europe for 3 months whilst they were way below us, yet after a week of them going up in Europe he predicts a catastrophe, which may or may not be right, but instead of gloating get helping. It would be great if everybody worked together, to help each other to get the best results possible instead of using others to show that 40,000 cases is really good. 

[Van wink 2,994]

17 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I hope you are wrong!  The last time I looked into it reinfection was very rare, even with the change in variants and the study that showed immunity can come from entirely different and older coronaviruses added, as far as I was concerned, to that view.

Is this something you have seen in a study or a hunch based on the rate of growth they are experiencing?

I think your view is not far off, reinfections are certainly happening and that will be the norm as we go forward, however as a residual immunity builds up in the population infections whilst continuing will have less serious impact on the health of most people.  I have been an advocate of a very restrictive approach, for me the jury is still out on the long term outcome from letting it rip in the summer but we may well see a long term benefit, we definitely were tardy in getting the booster program going, that does seems to have picked up well of late.

Edited November 13, 2021 by Van wink

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

11 hours ago, Well b back said:

clearly the best way to avoid it is 3 vaccines and catching it, but if you were not vaccinated you would have a fair chance of catching it each year. Just a good job we didn’t follow some of those early theories that if 85% of us caught it we would wipe it out. The virus has not been around long enough for any absoloute data but it is believed if you were vaccinated you would catch it every 18 months at longest. If what you say was completely accurate Portugal should now be clear of cases, but they aren’t with some saying they are going to rocket, but personally as I have said I don’t think they will.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02825-8
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=303705&org=NSF&from=news

Thanks @Well b back, really interesting. So it looks like we’ll end up with regular boosters for this like flu, (although will they need to be more frequent than once per year?) and it will be endemic ie permanently in circulation?
 

So at the moment it seems to me it’s all about managing our way to that point and having an ongoing level of cases is not a problem as long as they don’t spike at too high a level at any point especially in mid winter.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

10 hours ago, Aggy said:

Err …no. I pointed out that you were the one whinging because someone had posted a chart you didn’t like.  

Who was whinging? If you hadn't butted in during the debate I was merely asking Ricardo if he was gloating about possible spikes in Europe when it appears the UK is doing better than it was. Where did I say there was anything wrong with the chart? Read it again.

 

 

[ricardo 7,347]

National

38,351 - 157

rate of increase of 0.4% over 7 days, More evidence to back up yesterdays suggestion that the decline has levelled out. How long will this continue? and will the next move be up or down?

 

Local

Norwich rate 276.9 (West Norwich rate has risen slightly)     yet posituive test still going down 16.1% (7 days)

N&N Patients

09-11-2021                        30

Vax     

1st Dose      33,558             87.9% done                               Norwich numbers   77.2% 

2nd Dose     21,307              80% done                                                                  70.1%

Booster     340,943     total          12,164,586

In Hospital (a steady drop this week should continue for a few more days)

11-11-2021	8,652
10-11-2021	8,807
09-11-2021	8,888
08-11-2021	8,958
07-11-2021	8,815
06-11-2021	8,796
05-11-2021	9,044

[ricardo 7,347]

Neil Feguson recommends jabs for under 50's and doesn't expect a big winter wave for U.K. He's been wrong a few times but perhaps this one will be right. Time will tell.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59273273

[Well b back 3,190]

rate of increase of 0.4% over 7 days, More evidence to back up yesterdays suggestion that the decline has levelled out. How long will this continue? and will the next move be up or down?
 

Don’t want to be negative, Thursdays figures were 5000 higher than the Thursday before, Fridays figures were 6000 higher than the Friday before and today’s figures are almost 8000 higher than last Saturday.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

rate of increase of 0.4% over 7 days, More evidence to back up yesterdays suggestion that the decline has levelled out. How long will this continue? and will the next move be up or down?
 

Don’t want to be negative, Thursdays figures were 5000 higher than the Thursday before, Fridays figures were 6000 higher than the Friday before and today’s figures are almost 8000 higher than last Saturday.

You're not being negative WBB just stating what it is.

When I see sudden increases or decreases in PCR cases I tend to look for the simplest explanations. Human behaviour changes (1/2 term) and testing. The ONS as ever.

[Aggy 752]

6 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Who was whinging? If you hadn't butted in during the debate I was merely asking Ricardo if he was gloating about possible spikes in Europe when it appears the UK is doing better than it was. Where did I say there was anything wrong with the chart? Read it again.

 

 

I’ve read it again suggest you go and do the same. You’ve made a statement about someone ”gloating” (ie posting factual information you don’t like). When pulled up on it you’ve said the “gloating” is because the person posts charts. When asked why posting charts is a bad thing you’ve just waffled on.
 

As for butting in during the debate, perhaps don’t post on a public message board if you’re going to have a whinge about others reading and replying to your posts as well?

Edited November 13, 2021 by Aggy

[Aggy 752]

7 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks @Well b back, really interesting. So it looks like we’ll end up with regular boosters for this like flu, (although will they need to be more frequent than once per year?) and it will be endemic ie permanently in circulation?
 

So at the moment it seems to me it’s all about managing our way to that point and having an ongoing level of cases is not a problem as long as they don’t spike at too high a level at any point especially in mid winter.

I think that has been expected by most since fairly early on. Again comes back to the reality that lockdowns and restrictions are at best short term emergency measures. Unless hospitals are about to become so overwhelmed people can’t get emergency lifesaving treatment, there’s no point implementing such things unless you’re going to start doing it for pretty much anything that contributes to the burden on the nhs. 

[KernowCanary 214]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Neil Feguson recommends jabs for under 50's and doesn't expect a big winter wave for U.K. He's been wrong a few times but perhaps this one will be right. Time will tell.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59273273

This is the guy who’s computer program locked us down and then broke his own rules later on. I’ve never listened to a word he has said ever since, but I hope he’s right this time since he’s such a bad case scenario person.

To think this time last year “Substantial Meal” entered the Covid Dictionary, the most stupidest thing I’ve ever come across.

Still got Covid adverts I see…. the latest Amazon one namechecks “pandemic”.

Edited November 13, 2021 by KernowCanary

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

49 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I’ve read it again suggest you go and do the same. You’ve made a statement about someone ”gloating” (ie posting factual information you don’t like). When pulled up on it you’ve said the “gloating” is because the person posts charts. When asked why posting charts is a bad thing you’ve just waffled on.
 

As for butting in during the debate, perhaps don’t post on a public message board if you’re going to have a whinge about others reading and replying to your posts as well?moo

Well you need help with your reading. Read the post again and point out accurately, not like this waffle, where I disagreed or disliked the chart. You cannot. I merely asked Ricardo, who I like as a poster very much, whether he was gloating that, assuming the chart is accurate, Europe was heading for trouble. And he has replied to that.

He believes that some posters are painting a bad picture of the virus in the UK. Personally, I don't see what is happening in Europe is any defence of how the UK is handling it.

And because many, not "most", are a little more concerned at what is happening, does not make their opinion any less valid.

There is any amount of  data being supplied and no-one can definitely say it is correct. So it is up to the individual to make a choice.

And why is it you can be rude by using the word whinging but object when the rudeness is returned.

You do like to pick on certain posters on this thread. Others have picked you up for it in the past. You are quite happy to tell people what they post is nonsense. You believe your interpretation of the data is the right one. Fair enough, that is your right. But other posters believe they are making the right choice. So just temperate your posts with a little less arrogance.

 

 

 

 

 

[Aggy 752]

3 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

You do like to pick on certain posters on this thread.

Is that a question or a statement?

[Barbe bleu 815]

28 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Is that a question or a statement?

Aggy, I can't help feeling that there are better people to get intona fight with than KG, he's one of the good guys.

I do think there has been a bit of gloating  on both sides (why in earth there are 'sides' I don't know but there are).  

Anyway.   Slight pick up this week.  Hopefully a half term and festival effect. I guess we'll know in the coming days. 

[Aggy 752]

15 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Aggy, I can't help feeling that there are better people to get intona fight with than KG, he's one of the good guys.

I do think there has been a bit of gloating  on both sides (why in earth there are 'sides' I don't know but there are).  

Anyway.   Slight pick up this week.  Hopefully a half term and festival effect. I guess we'll know in the coming days. 

Given we’ve had 18 months of people telling us we should “follow the science” and also 18 months of how badly the uk is doing, I just found it slightly ridiculous that a poster who has been pro-lockdown throughout was now saying we should abandon “the science” because it is too much like “gloating” when it doesn’t suit him. I havent actually commented on the validity or accuracy of ricardo’s charts, nor have I suggested KG’s opinion is wrong.

As much as KG has a chip on his shoulder about the same, it’s nothing to do with “fights”. Arguing that people shouldn’t use charts because it is gloating (having never called out any other charts which he liked previously) is quite clearly nonsense. The fact he’s had to weasel backwards to try and make out a very clear statement was in fact a question rather proves the point. I’ve called out other people posting nonsense before and others have done the same to me when I may have been wrong (although I don’t recall that being very often 😉). 

Edited November 13, 2021 by Aggy

[KernowCanary 214]

“Follow the science”…. that’s another one for my list a few pages back, alongside “Lockdown 2.0” and “Lockdown 3”.

Typical scum newspaper and TV media buzzwords, alongside that of the “Take to Twitter” brigade, to make it look like all this is a film when it damn well isn’t.

Edited November 14, 2021 by KernowCanary

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

4 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

“Follow the science”…. that’s another one for my list a few pages back, alongside “Lockdown 2.0” and “Lockdown 3”.

Typical scum newspaper and TV media buzzwords, alongside that of the “Take to Twitter” brigade, to make it look like all this is a film when it damn well isn’t.

Didn’t realise they support 1p5wich.

[Well b back 3,190]

Here is some really good data which explains why boosters are needed and gives some very good data re the 5 months. I think @Van wink that this is the unpublished data regards Oxford and 47% that I couldn’t find again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59260294

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Here is some really good data which explains why boosters are needed and gives some very good data re the 5 months. I think @Van wink that this is the unpublished data regards Oxford and 47% that I couldn’t find again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59260294

Thanks, will be interesting to see data in due course regarding level of sustained immunity from the many of us with 2 AZ and a Pfizer booster.

[Well b back 3,190]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Thanks, will be interesting to see data in due course regarding level of sustained immunity from the many of us with 2 AZ and a Pfizer booster.

I know a couple of people on the anti body trials, one who had AZ had gone to virtually none existent, however after their boosters they appeared to shoot back up to 96% efficacy but 99% against serious illness ( no idea how they measure that ). Israel however are reporting similar trends for the booster as to jab 2, but clearly no long term data will be available for several years yet. They are reporting they will be ready for dose 4 at 4 months, but have no absoloute plans yet.

It will be interesting to see from the two ways of doing at present ie U.K., Germany ect left to your own devices over 50 at 6 months or the likes of France and Portugal who are using an initial age 65 for the boosters, but more or less insisting you have it at 6 months ie you have your vaccine passport removed if you don’t have your booster. If only we knew the results that will come in 6 months time.

[Aggy 752]

The whole of Austria now locking down unvaccinated people. I’m not sure on this one. If it stops hospitals being overwhelmed, I can see it as a good idea. It raises wider questions though. 

Are people being locked down to protect themselves or to stop hospitals being overwhelmed?

If the former, surely you don’t want to be in a position where governments are banning people from leaving their own homes “for their own good”. The whole justification for lockdowns has always been to stop hospitals being overwhelmed not to take away people’s ability to weigh up their own risks.

If the latter, if I were an unvaccinated 30 year old (I’m double jabbed just for the record) I’d be querying why the best choice for saving hospitals is locking me down because I haven’t been vaccinated against a virus that is likely to give me little more than a bad cough while people are, for instance, still able to buy cigarettes and alcohol. Cigarettes and alcohol not infectious diseases but are a humongous burden on health systems.

[Well b back 3,190]

Boosters now available for 40 plus at 6 months and second doses for 16 and 17 year olds. 
As said many times follow the pink un, couldn’t do much worse lol.

[Well b back 3,190]

If the latter, if I were an unvaccinated 30 year old (I’m double jabbed just for the record) I’d be querying why the best choice for saving hospitals is locking me down because I haven’t been vaccinated against a virus that is likely to give me little more than a bad cough.

Feel free to come and visit a COVID ward.
 

 

[SwindonCanary 455]

Coronavirus (who.int)

Edited November 15, 2021 by SwindonCanary

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

If the latter, if I were an unvaccinated 30 year old (I’m double jabbed just for the record) I’d be querying why the best choice for saving hospitals is locking me down because I haven’t been vaccinated against a virus that is likely to give me little more than a bad cough.

Feel free to come and visit a COVID ward.
 

 

Yes WBB - Speaking (somewhat breathy still) to one of my younger UK colleagues in sales - was out for 10 days with his wife both double vaxed with Covid. It was not a simple bad cough!!! 

 

[ricardo 7,347]

National

39,705 - 47

rate of increase of 12.5% over 7 days, 3rd day of rises after 3 weeks of falls.

 

Local

Norwich rate 242.3                ( Norwich rate has risen slightly  6.6%  7 days  )    

N&N Patients

09-11-2021                        30

Vax     

1st Dose      22,938              88% done                               Norwich numbers   77.2% 

2nd Dose     17,048              80% done                                                                  70.1%

Booster     217,349     total          12,860,751

In Hospital (a steady drop this week should continue for a few more days)

11-11-2021	8,678
10-11-2021	8,832
09-11-2021	8,913
08-11-2021	8,975
07-11-2021	8,831
06-11-2021	8,811
05-11-2021	9,059

[ricardo 7,347]

Chart indicates the increase is a schools effect.

[Barbe bleu 815]

18 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Chart indicates the increase is a schools effect.

Makes sense.  Possibly mixed in different circles during half term and then introduced it to class mates.

If its just a halt term effect it should burn itself out.   But winter is definitely drawing closer so we shouldn't yet dismiss the idea  of this as the start of a wider trend.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Yep, definitely bottoming out and rising again after a period of reduction.  Hopefully the boosters will allow us to ride this one out.

 

My take is that there are a bunch of different factors in play at the moment.  On the one hand we've our immunity levels (vaccine/infection derived) and how fast they wane.  On the other, how far are people "back to normal" in mixing etc.  And, on the third hand👾 as we move into the autumn, are we mixing indoors rather than out, making it easier for Covid to spread ?  It's the variations in these factors which make it a nightmare to predict what's coming next.

 

So IMO the right approach is to keep on as we are, keeping things open and as normal as possible, but really push those booster jabs.  And monitor cases and hospital levels, but not to panic.