Jump to content
Fuzzar

Corona Virus main thread

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

@sonyc said Sees a big  (steep) drop in November and December.

As long as we can get boosters back on track.

Indeed, there has to be massive focus on a longer term vaccine with longevity. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Appears we may be passing the peak, let’s hope so.

Let’s hope so, but I seriously hope that Javid wasn’t playing politics by lying that cases would be going north of 100,000 just to make it look like they had done something amazing and kept numbers down.

I prefer to believe Andrew Pollard who has said numbers will stabilise as the virus has a few less places to go over the next few weeks. He does as well stress the importance of boosters and if they don’t pick up could be trouble ahead.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Indy said:

Indeed, there has to be massive focus on a longer term vaccine with longevity. 

I would love that to happen, but I fear looking at the latest comments from Israel and Portugal ( who’s cases especially deaths and hospitalisations dropped considerably after boosters ) that the next set of boosters will come 4 months after these ones.

It seems like the common cold, your body cannot remember the virus after around 4 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not good today, after the figures have gone up again and the worse death tally since March, it just seems to keep going up and down all the time and not just down.

Edited by KernowCanary

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is much more my view.

12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I prefer to believe Andrew Pollard who has said numbers will stabilise as the virus has a few less places to go over the next few weeks. He does as well stress the importance of boosters and if they don’t pick up could be trouble ahead.

It's the vaccines in the young, school kids - those that spread it most that will have the greatest and speediest effect to drop incidence - and where we have been very slow off the mark and where we still have large unvaccinated cohorts.

The boosters in the elderly are not in themselves the major driver of any case numbers / reductions at present (hospitalizations perhaps but as yet unseen) as of course although there may be a waning most are fully vaccinated and have some if not perfect protection.

Compare with Israel and what they did when (and they have a relatively young populations) .

With the 'data' over the last few days, flawed though it might be, we are in danger of 'one swallow a summer does not make' wishful thinking. Schools are off for (just) a week, tests already down (3.3 %) and we wonder why we don't report so many positives ? Even No 10 urges caution, which for Johnson, is saying something.

We may be approaching a peak, we may not be as its all far far too soon to say. Caution is king so get vaccinated / booster / masks and socially distance and take care. The data will then look after itself.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

Not good today, after the figures have gone up again and the worse death tally since March, it just seems to keep going up and down all the time and not just down.

The death tally covers many dates, some are not reported for many weeks. People seem to not understand that the figures are not the number of people that died yesterday.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, sonyc said:

Yes. Lots of threads on Twitter indicating we are at peak and the trend may be to fall next week. 

Very sad reading those death numbers. We have perhaps become (necessarily) de-sensitised to such figures. They will include the weekend I know.

I posted last night a thread I came across projected into 2022. Sees a big  (steep) drop in November and December.

Yep, there were three studies and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine seems to be the one that has grabbed the headlines. They are all reported below

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027851/S1383_SPI-M-O_Summary_autumn_winter_scenarios.pdf

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Lots of booster clinics now in north Suffolk, right through till mid December 

In the Midlands we are already told we will be there till March

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Well b back said:

 

It seems like the common cold, your body cannot remember the virus after around 4 months.

Is that something  you've read or a bit of your own analysis?  

Blood antibody levels go down in time, that's to be expected, but for the underlying memory to be defunct after 4 months due to viral mutation puts a whole new complexion on this.

Edited by Barbe bleu

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/missed-targets-unused-labs-and-staff-paid-to-watch-netflix-how-nhs-test-trace-frittered-away-37bn/ar-AAPYYfQ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

The Telegraph

Missed targets, unused labs and staff ‘paid to watch Netflix’: How NHS Test & Trace frittered away £37bn

Who would have thought that the failed chief executive who presided over a disasterous massive data breach at TalkTalk might not be the best person to preside over the Test and Trace system?

Edited by horsefly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Massive waste of money in many ways, as we all said at the time, supporting, investing in, and finding a balance with local Public Health services with enhanced support from the centre would undoubtedly have been far less expensive and more effective. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Massive waste of money in many ways, as we all said at the time, supporting, investing in, and finding a balance with local Public Health services with enhanced support from the centre would undoubtedly have been far less expensive and more effective. 

Never mind, there's always a bright side if you look hard enough. I am sure it provided many a NHS early retiree with an unexpected nice little earner.😉

There's always a silver lining somewhere, or in this case a golden one.😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well there is a bit of a surprise - the Torygraph leading with something I, and many others, have been saying for over a year now https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/26/eye-watering-waste-money-says-damning-report-nhs-test-trace/

Better late than never I suppose but this report is not the first by any means so makes you wonder why the Torygraph have decided now is a good time to give Johnson a bit of a kicking.

Are even they getting fed up with his utter incompetence or is it a useful distraction from his utterly shambolic preparation for COP 26?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Never mind, there's always a bright side if you look hard enough. I am sure it provided many a NHS early retiree with an unexpected nice little earner.😉

There's always a silver lining somewhere, or in this case a golden one.😀

Now now 😁 Everyone had to do their bit😉

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Never mind, there's always a bright side if you look hard enough. I am sure it provided many a NHS early retiree with an unexpected nice little earner.😉

There's always a silver lining somewhere, or in this case a golden one.😀

I think you'll find the only golden linings went not to any NHS retirees but to Johnson's mates who were awarded the vastly overpriced contracts, just as in the PPE VIP lane, and who trousered nassive profits despite delivering sub-standard to completely useless products/services.

And who picks up that £37b tab - the taxpayers, i.e. pretty much all of us including everyone in the NHS whether working or retired.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting BBC article here on case numbers in the UK, although it doesn't really mention comparative levels of testing which always are the first thing I think about when I see anyone talk about the UK having higher case numbers than other European countries.  Also it fails to mention the surprising way Covid has developed in the UK since restrictions were removed in mid-July, i.e. the totally unexpected decline in cases that followed in England, etc.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58954793?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

 

Also it's from a few days back, so doesn't discuss the fact that case numbers may have now peaked on the latest wavelet of infections.  Has "wavelet" always been a word or has it just appeared to describe a short-lived period of increase in Covid infections ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think you'll find the only golden linings went not to any NHS retirees but to Johnson's mates who were awarded the vastly overpriced contracts, just as in the PPE VIP lane, and who trousered nassive profits despite delivering sub-standard to completely useless products/services.

And who picks up that £37b tab - the taxpayers, i.e. pretty much all of us including everyone in the NHS whether working or retired.

Ask VW😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Van wink said:

Yep, there were three studies and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine seems to be the one that has grabbed the headlines. They are all reported below

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027851/S1383_SPI-M-O_Summary_autumn_winter_scenarios.pdf

Thanks VW - It is a good read and illustrates some of the (heroic) assumptions in the models.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, ricardo said:

Ask VW😀

I'm sure VW is fully capable of saying if he disagrees with what I post without me specifically asking - that, at least, has always been my experience in the past 😀

Edited by Creative Midfielder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

National

43,941 - 207

rate of decrease of 4% over 7 days,

decrease begins to speed up.

 

Local

Norwich rate 566.2  up 12.5% (7 days) local peak not far off.

patients in N&N 

19-10-2021                      31
18-10-2021 33
17-10-2021 28
16-10-2021 28
15-10-2021 29

Vax     

1st Dose      41,083             86.6% done                               Norwich numbers   75% 

2nd Dose     23,031             79.3% done                                                                  68.5%

Booster    264,468     total 6,706,468

In Hospital (will rise for another week yet)

 
26-10-2021                                   8,801
25-10-2021 8,707
24-10-2021 8,395
23-10-2021 8,233
22-10-2021 8,253
21-10-2021 8,277
   
   
   
   
   
   
 
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

43,941 - 207

rate of decrease of 4% over 7 days,

decrease begins to speed up.

 

Local

Norwich rate 566.2  up 12.5% (7 days) local peak not far off.

patients in N&N 

19-10-2021                      31
18-10-2021 33
17-10-2021 28
16-10-2021 28
15-10-2021 29

Vax     

1st Dose      41,083             86.6% done                               Norwich numbers   75% 

2nd Dose     23,031             79.3% done                                                                  68.5%

Booster    264,468     total 6,706,468

In Hospital (will rise for another week yet)

 
26-10-2021                                   8,801
25-10-2021 8,707
24-10-2021 8,395
23-10-2021 8,233
22-10-2021 8,253
21-10-2021 8,277
   
   
   
   
   
   
 

Thanks, yep definitely going in the right direction.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just as numbers start to fall here in the UK, we see sharp upticks in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium.

Somewhat disconcerting news. Are they entering the vax wane window?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, ricardo said:

Just as numbers start to fall here in the UK, we see sharp upticks in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium.

Somewhat disconcerting news. Are they entering the vax wane window?

I don't know whether their education system has half terms like us but I did wonder about the figures for this week and whether there would be a discernible difference either up or down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now the double jabbed can easily spread it at home….. I’m done with all this sh*t, it’s just getting too much now.

Edited by KernowCanary

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 22/10/2021 at 16:14, Van wink said:

Yes thanks, have seen the Spectre update, just wondering if WBB had picked up on any other research papers indicating significant drop off around 5 months. Yes no doubt perpetual boosters will become the norm but as you quite rightly say, we dont know how long  a reasonable level of immunity lasts after the booster, my suspician is that there will be be greater longevity but we'll have to see. Trip to the Principality coming up next weekend, infection rate in Wales is the highest it has been since the start of the pandemic 😷

Hi VW

Here is a bit more from a study that has just been papered by Lancet. You will see they have shown Pfizer at 5-6 months and AZ at 4-5 months ( already lower ) and I guess the reason they have not shown 5-6 months AZ is as some of those surveys last week were close. 
image.thumb.png.42294f78ee836e64a752fb217446c85c.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

Here is a bit more from a study that has just been papered by Lancet. You will see they have shown Pfizer at 5-6 months and AZ at 4-5 months ( already lower ) and I guess the reason they have not shown 5-6 months AZ is as some of those surveys last week were close. 
image.thumb.png.42294f78ee836e64a752fb217446c85c.png

 

So I assume the labs are still working on finding an even better vaccine. And maybe that will mean another booster in six months before anything is fruitful. It seems chaos will still reign for a while yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

So I assume the labs are still working on finding an even better vaccine. And maybe that will mean another booster in six months before anything is fruitful. It seems chaos will still reign for a while yet.

Hi KG

Nothing is certain with COVID as a Pfizer booster gets you into the high 90’s ( Israel and Portugal data ), however they are seeing the same trends already as last time after 2 months and Israel will consider dose 4 at 4 months after dose 3 if those trends carry out as per between dose 2 and 3. If you look at the Israel data you will see they got a big hit between 5 and 6 months, so won’t leave anything to chance this time round.

It is impossible to predict what COVID does next, but my concern is around December when we could be way behind with a mixture of the number of boosters that can be given and many not bothering as they don’t see why boosters are important. I see why the government are saying approaching 300,000 jabs a day, how wonderful is that, but 6 months ago we were approaching 900,000 jabs a day ( didn’t quite get there ). You have to bear in mind that there are less hubs and 1/2 the workforce as most people are back to their regular jobs, including nurses that are now recalled back to the wards. On Saturday most of us were working 7 day weeks with 12 hour shifts, either on the vaccine task force or doing their normal job Monday to Friday and vaccines at the weekend. I am finally having some time off this weekend to visit FCR on Sunday, then it’s back to 12 straight shifts. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

Here is a bit more from a study that has just been papered by Lancet. You will see they have shown Pfizer at 5-6 months and AZ at 4-5 months ( already lower ) and I guess the reason they have not shown 5-6 months AZ is as some of those surveys last week were close. 
image.thumb.png.42294f78ee836e64a752fb217446c85c.png

 

Thanks WBB

Another interesting read from Nature

https://www.icpcovid.com/sites/default/files/2021-09/Ep 175-1 COVID vaccine immunity is waning — how much does that matter__0.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...