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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

We are testing a lot but the increase in rates is not always correlating. 

Something else is happening with the current rate of increase. 

Whatever peoples' thoughts are on Covid (and they have all been laid out in these pages on the thread) I think we all ought to be worried about the pressure on the NHS and everyone working in hospitals as well as everyone waiting to have medical procedures, treatments or long awaited operations.

This is an incredibly serious situation (it appears to me anyway). We've heard this morning though that government policy is "working". Wonder what 'not working' might look like? 

Worrying times. Let's all hope those increased rates do not lead to hospitalisation rates again rising. They appear flat at present at least.

In my area the number of infections is also dropping sharply for the last week (Zoe) but I'm unsure if Zoe leads the way as a trend indicator anymore. If it does then at least a positive sign (living in a denser metropolitan area you'd possibly expect higher rates).

IMG_20211020_111533.jpg

Thanks SC. You mention the same thing I noted several days ago. Confirmed PCR rates rising but recently number of tests falling. Something else is also going on. My guess would be that people are only reluctantly getting tested when they feel they really have too - putting down Covid like symptoms to colds etc. After-all,  in gross error the politicians and media have until very recently been telling everybody it all OK, party as normal and who after all still wants to quarantine for 10 days.

Zoe nearly 82,000 this morning - still up.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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Had my third primary jab this morning, it is not the same as booster jab. See explanation below.

What is the difference between this third dose and a booster dose?

This vaccination is being called a ‘third dose’ as it is being recommended as part of your primary COVID-19 vaccination. The first two doses of the vaccine also make up your primary vaccination. This third dose is only being offered to people who are less likely to have had a strong immune response to the first two doses.

The booster programme is separate from the third dose. The booster vaccine dose is being offered to people in certain groups from September. The JCVI will review whether people who have had a third dose as part of their primary vaccination need a further booster vaccine, at a later date

 

By the sound of the final sentence it is possible people in my group might get a fourth jab.

Edited by ricardo
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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Had my third primary jab this morning, it is not the same as booster jab. See explanation below.

What is the difference between this third dose and a booster dose?

This vaccination is being called a ‘third dose’ as it is being recommended as part of your primary COVID-19 vaccination. The first two doses of the vaccine also make up your primary vaccination. This third dose is only being offered to people who are less likely to have had a strong immune response to the first two doses.

The booster programme is separate from the third dose. The booster vaccine dose is being offered to people in certain groups from September. The JCVI will review whether people who have had a third dose as part of their primary vaccination need a further booster vaccine, at a later date

 

By the sound of the final sentence it is possible people in my group might get a fourth jab.

You're going to run out of immune cells at this rate! There must be a limit to the number injections a person can take in one short period, surely.... Your lymph nodes must already think you live in a medieval dustbin and regularly lick the sides

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Just now, Barbe bleu said:

You're going to run out of immune cells at this rate! There must be a limit to the number injections a person can take in one short period, surely.... Your lymph nodes must already think you live in a medieval dustbin and regularly lick the sides

With Non Hodgkins Lymphoma my Lymph nodes are up and down anyway. Thankfully mine are still in remission (touch wood)😉

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so if cases is what is worrying people, surely you go after the root cause? Since that is overwhelmingly kids and teenagers (who basically are all unvaccinated), isn't the solution to close schools?

Surely if we bring a load of other restrictions in but school cracks on as normal, it won't make much of a difference?

For me, it overwhelmingly comes down to getting the boosters done ASAP... Israel provides a nice insight into the future in that regard.

Clearly at this rate, basically all kids are going to get covid or schools need to shut so you make a choice based on least harm. For me, that's obviously keeping schools open and encouraging teenagers to get vaccinated (without coersion/rules for under 18s).

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National

49,139  - 179

rate of increase of 17.2% over 7 days,  slowly climbing again

 

Local

Norwich rate 433.3  up 43.2% (7 days) a big rise locally continies.

patients in N&N 

12-10-2021                 29
11-10-2021 31
10-10-2021 22
09-10-2021 19
08-10-2021 17

 

Vax        (no info available on 3rd or booster doses yet but quite a large queue for Walk in Centre when I went this morning)

1st Dose      42,902             86.1% done                               Norwich numbers   74.8% 

2nd Dose     32,767             79% done                                                                     68.3%

 

In Hospital (continuing to edge up)

19-10-2021                                           7,891
18-10-2021 7,767
17-10-2021 7,407
16-10-2021 7,142
15-10-2021 7,120
14-10-2021 7,115
13-10-2021 7,065
12-10-2021 7,057

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10 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

so if cases is what is worrying people, surely you go after the root cause? Since that is overwhelmingly kids and teenagers (who basically are all unvaccinated), isn't the solution to close schools?

Surely if we bring a load of other restrictions in but school cracks on as normal, it won't make much of a difference?

For me, it overwhelmingly comes down to getting the boosters done ASAP... Israel provides a nice insight into the future in that regard.

Clearly at this rate, basically all kids are going to get covid or schools need to shut so you make a choice based on least harm. For me, that's obviously keeping schools open and encouraging teenagers to get vaccinated (without coersion/rules for under 18s).

My Great Grandson (13 yrs) had his jab today so they seem to be moving locally.

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is there any ONS estimates on what % of kids/teenagers have already had covid? It would be interesting to see what sort of level of fully susceptible people there is left for this virus to go at... surely once everyone is either vaccinated and/or previously infected it won't really have many places to go? None of these variants seem to be even slightly reinventing the wheel so antibodies and memory cells should be able to do their job for the vast majority of breakthrough/repeat cases?

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22 minutes ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

No more lockdowns.

Get jabbed.

We're f*cked.

The first bit of honesty from this government since this whole farrago started.😀

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

My Great Grandson (13 yrs) had his jab today so they seem to be moving locally.

I am working on this team and unfortunately the English government f***** up. They insisted on doing it in schools ( 15% uptake to date ), whereas the Scots allowed 12 - 15 to go to the hubs ( 55% uptake to date )

As you will be aware Javid announced a U turn yesterday, but did not bother telling anyone how it will work, so even if he gets his 1/2 term plan up and running I guess loads of vaccine destined for schools will need to be dumped as when we turn up 1 - 5th November 1/2 the kids booked in will already be vaccinated. Parents don’t want it in schools, which was common knowledge and schools didn’t want it in schools due to the anti vax brigade.

As you will be aware the government took control of boosters and teenage vaccines so I guess if it remains f***** up their press announcements will call it the NHS booster and teenage vaccination programme.

So instead of the words ‘ who ate all the pies ‘ to that famous song in football grounds we should be singing ‘ who shut all the hubs ‘.

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2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I am working on this team and unfortunately the English government f***** up. They insisted on doing it in schools ( 15% uptake to date ), whereas the Scots allowed 12 - 15 to go to the hubs ( 55% uptake to date )

As you will be aware Javid announced a U turn yesterday, but did not bother telling anyone how it will work, so even if he gets his 1/2 term plan up and running I guess loads of vaccine destined for schools will need to be dumped as when we turn up 1 - 5th November 1/2 the kids booked in will already be vaccinated. Parents don’t want it in schools, which was common knowledge and schools didn’t want it in schools due to the anti vax brigade.

As you will be aware the government took control of boosters and teenage vaccines so I guess if it remains f***** up their press announcements will call it the NHS booster and teenage vaccination programme.

So instead of the words ‘ who ate all the pies ‘ to that famous song in football grounds we should be singing ‘ who shut all the hubs ‘.

The biggest fcuk up was the JCVI delaying the decision to allow kids to be vaccinated in the first place. The government had to do some arm twisting.

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Well officially cases could now hit 100,000 a day (Zoe already has at > 80K/day) !

Nothing more need be said about this governments incompetence and certainly no excuses. This will the THIRD time around this particular dithering loop with few to no lessons learnt.

A dark Greek tragedy come comedy of errors

I wonder if Johnson feels at all uncomfortable looking over at Bolsonaro's current legal  predicament?

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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26 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The biggest fcuk up was the JCVI delaying the decision to allow kids to be vaccinated in the first place. The government had to do some arm twisting.

Didn’t see where it told anyone it had to be done in schools ? It was Johnson’s decision.

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Our local news interviewed an ambulance official this morning and he stated that 800 hours had been wasted sat outside hospitals waiting to offload patients into A&E. At one time there were 29 hospitals outside Treliske Hospital waiting to offload.

Do not let anyone blind anyone else to the fact that we are in crisis.

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5 million people have still made no move to be vaccinated.

This is the nub of the problem.

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11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Well officially cases could now hit 100,000 a day (Zoe already has at > 80K/day) !

Nothing more need be said about this governments incompetence and certainly no excuses. This will the THIRD time around this particular dithering loop with few to no lessons learnt.

A dark Greek tragedy come comedy of errors

I wonder if Johnson feels at all uncomfortable looking over at Bolsonaro's current legal  predicament?

 

Apropos of nothing,just thought you'd like to know, but I have been listening to a radio series about the Nuremberg Trials. It's very good. 😉

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Here we go again with the “Sick man of Europe” and “Plague island” digs.

At least there won’t be another lockdown, as that’s just media scare tactics which gets them clicks. If there is, the public won’t comply such as leaving their area even if the pubs and “non-essential” shops are shut. The government know this and will make it obvious to the public that they have failed should they initiate one.

As for being “The frontliner of Europe” for cases, we test more than many major country on the continent per capita. If other European nations did also, I can see Spain and Italy…. maybe Germany as well as Belgium* all being worse.

*once had the most deaths per 1 million earlier in the year.

Edited by KernowCanary

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13 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

. At one time there were 29 hospitals outside Treliske Hospital waiting to offload.

 

You must have very wide roads down your way KG.

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11 minutes ago, ricardo said:

5 million people have still made no move to be vaccinated.

This is the nub of the problem.

There are is it 12 million or so under 16's in the UK.

Few are vaccinated and certainly not when Johnson blindly opened up in the summer without a care.

Totally, totally predictable.  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

There are is it 12 million or so under 16's in the UK.

Few are vaccinated and certainly not when Johnson blindly opened up in the summer without a care.

Totally, totally predictable.  

 

 

Its not the under 16's who are in hospital or dying, its the higher age groups and mostly unvaccinated.

Image

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Just now, ricardo said:

Its not the under 16's who are in hospital or dying, its the higher age groups and mostly unvaccinated.

Image

But it's this very group that will spread it back up the generations to you and everybody else - as they are all ready doing.

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2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

But it's this very group that will spread it back up the generations to you and everybody else - as they are all ready doing.

Perhaps the JCVI shouldn't have wasted the entire summer debating whether schoolchildren should or should not be given a jab while other countries got staright on with it.

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With all the crap we are in with petrol etc, alongside furlough ending, it would be stupid to do another lockdown.

It will only happen if the MSM scum keep digging for it.

Edited by KernowCanary

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18 hours ago, Aggy said:

How do you know it’s out of kilter though if you haven’t got the pre-covid figures? 

Ignoring that point though, waiting lists were increasing year on year before covid. Far more to do with an ever aging society and a lack of funding in healthcare. Covid has accelerated the increase, but I expect we’d have had the current waiting lengths in 2023 or so even if we hadn’t had covid. Many millions were denied treatment for many many months in 2019. We didn’t lock down then.

We have for many years, especially in the winter, pushed non urgent treatment back to be able to carry out urgent surgery and have beds for critical care free. We didn’t lock down then.

We’ve had nowhere near enough funding in healthcare and later life treatment/living/facilities for decades. More people seem to now be aware of it as a result of covid, but it was a mess in 2019 too and has been for years. Hospitals are close to being overwhelmed every year. People get turned away from one hospital and moved to another because there aren’t beds. This all happened in 2019. We didn’t lock down then.

So is it sustainable currently? Well, it wasn’t sustainable in 2019.

But unless we’re at a point where people can’t get emergency life saving treatment, then the answer isn’t lockdowns and restrictions. It’s investing properly in health and social care.

 

There are several things in there I agree with; waiting lists were increasing pre-2019 although you are wrong to say many millions were denied treatment in 2019, the waiting list was only just over half a million in 2019 and the wait times were only a small fraction of what they are now.

That was a result of underfunding as you suggest except it is not a decades old problem but a decade old problem - a decade of Tory austerity which hit the NHS as it hit all public services.  Of course you could always, at any point in time, argue a very reasonable case that the NHS requires more funds than it is receiving (or did receive) but there is a very clear dividing line between the level of funding received by the NHS between the previous Labour administration and the Tory one that followed.

Even if we had a government that is prepared to invest what is needed to resolve these problems (and it is pretty clear that this government isn't) that would still mean only a very gradual improvement could be achieved and would therefore need to be sustained for many years to even return back to roughly where we were 10 years ago, never mind the improvements we need in mental health care, cancer treatment etc, and of course social care which is both another issue in its own right as well as a factor in clogging up the NHS.

So I completely disagree with your statement 'But unless we’re at a point where people can’t get emergency life saving treatment, then the answer isn’t lockdowns and restrictions' because when you say 'can't get emergency life saving treatment' I presume you are only including those in pretty immediate danger of dying as 'emergencies'.

But that definition ignores other categories of patients whose demise is probably still some months away and quite preventable if they receive prompt life saving treatment but for whom a delay is effectively a death sentence - some aggressive forms of cancer are the obvious example but they don't meet your (or the NHS's) definition of an emergency.

So we need to invest properly in health and social care - the need is a given but in reality it isn't going to happen in the foreseeable future and even if by some miracle it were to start tomorrow it wouldn't have a significant impact on the rapidly approaching crisis this winter, so IMO the only thing we can do to assist the NHS get through this winter is to take some measures to reduce the load that Covid is placing on our hospitals.

As you will no doubt have seen this morning, many in the NHS are now openly saying the same thing.

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Young people are spreading it, older are being hospitalised. None of them wear masks, none of them care.

Gov't should have brought in vaccine passports liked they threatened.

All this was totally inevitable and we sleep walk to another lockdown and/or restrictions.

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3 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

With all the crap we are in with petrol etc, alongside furlough ending, it would be stupid to do another lockdown.

I think that is very debateable, and its certainly no more stupid than pretending that there is nothing we can do to improve the current situation which appears to be the Government's current (failing) strategy.

Lockdown is only the most severe option, out of a number of possible options we could introduce to reduce the spread.

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Perhaps the JCVI shouldn't have wasted the entire summer debating whether schoolchildren should or should not be given a jab while other countries got staright on with it.

I said we should vaccinate the kids months ago, unfortunately a minority put pressure on for this not to happen, and as we know Johnson only goes with what he thinks his followers will be happy with. You’ve avoided what I said though, the Scots in particular got on with it and by the end of 1/2 term will probably get as high as will be possible, Johnson went a different way and England is miles behind. Javid announces a U turn in Parliament yesterday, however he has no idea how it will be done and as it is currently impossible we had parents on the phone telling us about the announcement, asking us how they booked and the NHS being made to look stupid as we had no idea. You still can’t book today.

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14 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Young people are spreading it, older are being hospitalised. None of them wear masks, none of them care.

Gov't should have brought in vaccine passports liked they threatened.

All this was totally inevitable and we sleep walk to another lockdown and/or restrictions.

Yes, but that was far from their only mistake - we were weeks, or months in some cases, later than most European countries in vaccinating the younger age group, possibly a bigger mistake.

Plus of course we removed the final restrictions at a point when case numbers were dropping quite quickly but still at a ridiculously high level - Johnson said repeatedly throughout the last lockdown that the decisions on unlocking would be driven by 'data not dates' but in the end, as we always knew he would, he ignored the data and went with the dates.

That decision, as @Van wink said the other day, could have been a calculated gamble to try and get the peak(s) out of the way before the onset of winter. Personally, I don't think there was any calculation involved - as with so many of Johnson's decisions on the pandemic response, he ducked a difficult decision and just hoped it would all somehow work out alright and of course it didn't this time, just as it didn't on the earlier occasions.

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