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32 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm the lucky recipient of a French car too.  Does that mean I have to make a pilgrimage to strasbourg to give thanks and praises to the EU for its munificence in allowing car plants to operate ? I had thought my purchase was on the basis of fair exchange but I see now that the dodgy air con was a little reminder of my need to stay humble.

I'm going going to feel pretty conflicted when I have to go to Beijing to thank president Xi for personally designing my latest keyring

 

You seem  bit defensive today BB. Yes my Ode to Joy is bit of merriment if only to pointedly highlight the EU dimension to the worlds premier economic blocks  

The EU vaccine numbers and exports are good. They are delivering on their promises and should be thanked by all including us for it.

 

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49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You seem  bit defensive today BB. Yes my Ode to Joy is bit of merriment if only to pointedly highlight the EU dimension to the worlds premier economic blocks  

The EU vaccine numbers and exports are good. They are delivering on their promises and should be thanked by all including us for it.

 

Do I sound defensive? I don’t feel defensive....   

I'm grateful for all involved in vaccine research, development and manufacturing and distribution.  If the EU institutions are involved in that then I guess they have my thanks too!

Let's not pretend though that altruistism is at the heart of any of this.   If you happen to be  on in a rich country you'll likely have been offered a vaccine; if not you probably won't. Whatever the rights ans wrongs of high pricing for medicines,  boasting that less than 9% of all exports go to low and middle income countries whilst the remaining 91plus% go to rich nations at great profit doesn't sit right with me

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Of the 1 billion doses 913 million went to the richest few countries then?  I wonder why that is....

With the greatest of respect last time I looked the U.K. had exported 9600 doses and had to buy 96 million doses of Pfizer from the EU. We piled into AstraZeneca ( which was an excellent decision as it worked ), but now like most rich nations we dont use it, surely we should be manufacturing it as quick as possible to get to COVAX, with the same being said for for the USA who have the potential to produce 100’s of millions of doses of AstraZeneca.

We also cancelled our purchase of 100 million doses of Valneva, that if their results are correct ( and I have no reason to doubt them), this could well be an error.

That is not to argue at all that the U.K. vaccine roll out was nothing but brilliant, just a query as to why you are having a dig at the EU who as well as exporting and manufacturing in huge numbers in many Countries are way ahead of us.

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28 minutes ago, Well b back said:

With the greatest of respect last time I looked the U.K. had exported 9600 doses and had to buy 96 million doses of Pfizer from the EU. We piled into AstraZeneca ( which was an excellent decision as it worked ), but now like most rich nations we dont use it, surely we should be manufacturing it as quick as possible to get to COVAX, with the same being said for for the USA who have the potential to produce 100’s of millions of doses of AstraZeneca.

We also cancelled our purchase of 100 million doses of Valneva, that if their results are correct ( and I have no reason to doubt them), this could well be an error.

That is not to argue at all that the U.K. vaccine roll out was nothing but brilliant, just a query as to why you are having a dig at the EU who as well as exporting and manufacturing in huge numbers in many Countries are way ahead of us.

I'm not having a dig.  I didn't raise the subject. I'm glad vaccines are produced and I'm not particularly bothered where they are made.

I'm merely pointing out that if the institutions of the EU are going to claim or be given credit for altruism then I might expect a bit more than 9% of exports (and presumably less than 5% of all production) to go to the less well off. It should also be said that there is little evidence that these 87million doses have been made available at a price actually affordable by developing nations. Not that the institutions of the EU really have much to do with production.

In terms of domestic production I would very much support the plants we have producing for poorer nations and I certainly would not be happy if production runs had been ceased when there is still demand out there.

In terms of valneva it's a difficult one.  On one hand we might not be able to make use of 100 million doses within the timetable stipulated in the contract.  On the other hand if this does mean that less vaccines are produced its not a good thing (not least for the UK as production was to be based here). It is also worth noting that valneva is an 'old style' vaccine that anti vaxxers might trust more than the novel technologies we currently have.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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National

49,156  - 45

rate of increase of 16.2% over 7 days,  slowly climbing again

 

Local

Norwich rate 377  up 45.2% (7 days)

patients in N&N 

12-10-2021                 29
11-10-2021 31
10-10-2021 22
09-10-2021 19
08-10-2021 17

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      17,837             85.9% done                            Norwich numbers   74.8% 

2nd Dose     17,256             78.9% done                                                               68.2%

In Hospital

15-10-2021                               7,097
14-10-2021 7,100
13-10-2021 7,052
12-10-2021 7,047
11-10-2021 7,035
10-10-2021 6,886
09-10-2021 6,717
08-10-2021 6,776

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5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

49,156  - 45

rate of increase of 16.2% over 7 days,  slowly climbing again

 

Local

Norwich rate 377  up 45.2% (7 days)

patients in N&N 

12-10-2021                 29
11-10-2021 31
10-10-2021 22
09-10-2021 19
08-10-2021 17

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      17,837             85.9% done                            Norwich numbers   74.8% 

2nd Dose     17,256             78.9% done                                                               68.2%

In Hospital

15-10-2021                               7,097
14-10-2021 7,100
13-10-2021 7,052
12-10-2021 7,047
11-10-2021 7,035
10-10-2021 6,886
09-10-2021 6,717
08-10-2021 6,776

Half term next week. Should see a difference whether up or down.

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Half term next week. Should see a difference whether up or down.

See Agegroups.

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3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm the lucky recipient of a French car too.  Does that mean I have to make a pilgrimage to strasbourg

 

Based on my experience of French cars, I’d recommend getting a train there if you do!

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Plus your neck of the woods.

Road blocks needed at Lostwithiel😉

Image

It did leap to 700 for a while. Now its mid 500. If you see anyone wearing a mask in supermarkets etc its me. Nobody else bothers.

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9 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

It did leap to 700 for a while. Now its mid 500. If you see anyone wearing a mask in supermarkets etc its me. Nobody else bothers.

You should move north mate, still plenty of people wearing masks round here, and the beer is a lot better as well 😃

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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9 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

It did leap to 700 for a while. Now its mid 500. If you see anyone wearing a mask in supermarkets etc its me. Nobody else bothers.

Firmly believe this is the main reason now why the UK Covid rates are staggeringly higher than all the rest of the continental nations around us...which also affects the Covid death rate to, which is more than double the rate of most of our neighbours, even though vaccination has played its part here to in keeping deaths far lower than without vaccination...the simple attitude of most  casting their face masks to the wind and living normally,  purely relying on the thought that vax is so good that nothing else is now needed..a state of mind that has been partly brought on by our politicians who pretty much  act the same way.

Vaccination has given us the freedom to be able not to have to live a lockdowned lifestyle anymore but for me, the wearing of face coverings should be a way of life for us all now, as in so many other nations, it does not eradicate Covid but it does help quite a lot in suppresing further the chance of catching Covid.

I still wear a face mask, indeed a double face mask, as my immediate household, not only in shops and enclosed areas, but even out in the street...after 18 months its now become a way of life for me. Finally, i do fear this coming winter, particularly for the NHS, it wont take much for it to become overwhelmed and that would be a very sad state of affairs nearly 2 years after this virus first showed itself...it would feel like the glaring lessons have not been learned or just ignored.

 

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2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Firmly believe this is the main reason now why the UK Covid rates are staggeringly higher than all the rest of the continental nations around us...which also affects the Covid death rate to, which is more than double the rate of most of our neighbours, even though vaccination has played its part here to in keeping deaths far lower than without vaccination...

 

I think you underestimate the vaccine.  Without it all other measures except hiding under a stone and never seeing  anyone ever again would be pointless

That said if the aim were to keep infections low the data, to my mind, suggests you might be right. Below is a chart with one measure of excess deaths for the period since measures were taken away.  It shows a definite rise.

The same trend is true in all our most comparable neighbours, who, I think, withdrew restrictions at a similar time (I have kept them in mainly for the trend not the raw numbers which are impossible to compare with any great value).  Our relative increase from start to end though is quite a bit higher than anyone else  mainly because we were in the negative in June, whereas, for instance, the  Netherlands still had excess deaths at this point. The rate of the relative rise from baseline could be because of the nation's intrinsic characteristics or our willingness to abandon any semblance of distancing quicker than our overseas friends, I don't suppose we'll ever know.

Screenshot_20211019-091047_Chrome.thumb.jpg.8a96b59d53a8a983caecb38addbe8ee0.jpg

Note of caution though, this is an all cause graph. With covid  making up a smaller part of overall mortality what we are seeing might be a sequelae of lockdown rather than the virus.

I've not bothered with a graph of infections as I think the offical regimes are barely comparable and it would be misleading but I suspect that it would show similar trends.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

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Covid rates hitting the news again - dashboard lights flashing red. Perhaps we're starting to wake up again from our slumber.  

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3 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

In very simple terms 10% of 60 million people is 6 million. That even assumes the 90% who have antibodies are fully immune - they are not - say 90% effective. High contagious Delta will eventually find them all - plus those with less than perfect immunity. For most hopefully a bad 'cold' but for some much worse.

That's why we are long way from the 'stable state' at present - and why almost certainly there will need to be some 'rate limiting' adjustments later this autumn.

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

Its beginning to look as if immunity from infection isnt as good as that from vaccine, and as we know we need to keep boosting the vaccine to maintain relatively good immunity, I fear the concept of herd immunity isnt really going hit the spot with this virus  re waning vaccine and post infection immunity and a very infectious virus. I was very much against the July opening up, but gave the philosophy of getting the post opening rise in infections during the summer the benefit of the doubt, the recent figures sadly suggest that we may have got it wrong. 

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Interesting to see florida with nearly no sign of covid considering they gave up caring long ago and had a big wave of delta... it's dropped like a stone there! Has everyone there already had it or something?

The deaths graph is basically at zero.

Screenshot_20211019-105524_Chrome.jpg

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22 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Of the 1 billion doses 913 million went to the richest few countries then?  I wonder why that is....

I suspect exports to the UK of vaccines manufactured in the EU are included in the total, so not really a measure of altruism. 

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Its beginning to look as if immunity from infection isnt as good as that from vaccine, and as we know we need to keep boosting the vaccine to maintain relatively good immunity, I fear the concept of herd immunity isnt really going hit the spot with this virus  re waning vaccine and post infection immunity and a very infectious virus. I was very much against the July opening up, but gave the philosophy of getting the post opening rise in infections during the summer the benefit of the doubt, the recent figures sadly suggest that we may have got it wrong. 

it's still basically unvaccinated kids and the screw up in the south west that's causing the case rises it seems. Still nowhere near the 100k cases a day and 7000 a day admitted to hospital that the ZeroCovid zealots had warned... if they were in charge we'd still be at least at step 2 and still facing an uncertain winter anyway...

I'm not really that concerned yet though they need to hurry the hell up with the booster vaccinations for when the real test starts in winter.

That said, you're not just suddenly "unprotected" after 6 months, just your body will need to fire up the antibody creators when you're exposed to the virus. Indeed this is harder for older and unhealthier people to do but they will still have considerable protection. I suspect a lot more death "with not of" covid in a post vaccinated world of high case rates but high protection rates. Data seems to suggest this is slightly becoming the case.

Hospitalisation rates are still relatively stable and it doesn't seem like the explosive potential pre vaccine covid used to have is still there. We are at that proverbial "wall of vaccines" Chris Whitty was on about all them months ago.

Honestly if an average 100 deaths a day was the price to pay for near normality, I'd take that for now until we find even better vaccines and treatments.

I did listen to Joe Rogan and Dr. Sanjay Gupta chat on Rogans podcast which was very interesting. It brought to the table the debate over vaccinating previously infected people and whether to vaccinate kids/concentrate more on boosters for elderly and vulnerable. Also the point that if we got fitter and healthier in general weather our risk would be far less. I do find it odd we didn't do 1 jab for previously infected people such seems to be the scientific consensus.

Personally speaking, I'm not overly worried, I'll carry on as normal seeing friends and family, going to the pub/gigs/whatever, taking sensible, non invasive precautions (WFH, testing if symptomatic/required for events/prior to seeing old folk, masking up in public spaces where vulnerable folk might be like the shops/public transport). What will be will be... you can't live in a bubble forever...

Screenshot_20211019-110055_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?

I've had the same thought many times but feel uncomfortable about it nevertheless. The Delta Plus variant I've read is widespread in the UK (I'm sure I read 2/3 of new cases) so I've wondered if we are an outlier for that reason? Then again we are testing more. 

I'm unsure too about lasting immunity through vaccines (of which the 'waning' effect has been much reported in recent weeks as scientists and modellers try to explain our increasing rates). So, I'm very much looking forward to my booster! 

All in all it therefore doesn't feel we are back to normal in any realistic form. I don't know. One thing that has angered me however is the seeming disinterest by our government (not using this as a stick honestly). I watched the debate on poor David Amess yesterday and one side had no masks at all and the opposite bench everyone was wearing masks! WTF you might think. Just what message does that give us ....it's become politicised! And it's a pandemic. Why can't there be a simple request to wear masks or social distancing to continue (because for sure there is no need for lockdowns again). Why can't we all take simple precautions at least and the public messaging is reinforced daily to do so? I agree with @Essjayess on this matter.

I fear we are taking our eyes off the ball to use a football analogy and you'd have thought with Covid it's the last thing we should be doing. Just allowing some herd immunity unfettered feels very risky in my simple world.

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Given we’re now at over 90% showing Covid antibodies according to the ONS (im guessing this is among those over 18) and given vaccine efficacy wanes over time, are we now at the point where it’s actually better to have a moderate level of Covid cases to build population immunity while vaccines are protecting people?  So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

 

If not, what’s the alternative, given Covid is not going away?
 

Of course Covid isn't going to go away unless we take the right steps to force it to do so, and for the record hospital admissions are already way too high and have been for many weeks now - treatment of other types of serious illness has already been badly affected and we are now just approaching the time of year when hospitals generally, and respiratory departments especially, will receive a surge of patients seriously ill with the usual seasonal problems. The NHS simply has not got the resources to cope with either this level of Covid or the seasonal stuff without massively restricting many of the other things it should be doing for the non-Covid but seriously ill.

The notion that herd immunity (whether achieved by vaccination or infection) was going to make this problem going away was always a huge stretch, if not downright fanciful, and as VW has already pointed out it has now been demonstrated as such.

As to the alternatives, I would have thought that was obvious ranging from lockdown (highly effective but unpopular with RWNJ Tory MPs + Johnson) to a variety of lighter restrictions which would still be effective in slowing the spread - mask wearing in public (indoors) seems like a no-brainer to me.

I think pretty much all the scientists have now agreed it is the single most effective method of reducing the spread, it is something that even if we don't like we have all got used to over the last 18 months and it seems a very minor imposition to say we need to go back to it for a while longer.

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1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

 

That said, you're not just suddenly "unprotected" after 6 months, just your body will need to fire up the antibody creators when you're exposed to the virus. Indeed this is harder for older and unhealthier people to do but they will still have considerable protection. I suspect a lot more death "with not of" covid in a post vaccinated world of high case rates but high protection rates. Data seems to suggest this is slightly becoming the case.

 

Absolutely agree, its evolution not revolution. The fear in my mind is around the booster and the seemingly poor uptake, or slow roll out so far, and acquired immunity being less strong than had been hoped. Add that to delta and we are hearing the distant rumble of thunder particularly with the level of community infection we have and other winter respiratory infection thrown in. The last thing you need with a highly infectious virus is waning immunity and a population with a short memory of good hygienic behaviour. At some point there is a risk that we will see those factors coalesce and hospitalisations increase rapidly again. I don't expect the death rate to be anything like it was before but the issue is hospital beds isn't it?

I'd like to share your mild optimism but I'm beginning to get a bit twitchy 😃

 

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Covid is not going to go away because we can't stop it morphing into new variants. We can stop spending money on daft ideas such as Vaccine passports, as it is becoming clear that all of us, vaccinated or not, can carry and spread the virus.

What we could have done after exercise 'Alice' and the damning report into this 2016 pandemic exercise, when Hunt was in charge, is to act upon the report, not cut the pandemic budget from 859million down to 530odd million, get a pandemic PPE stock and prepared a screening program for all those who enter the UK. That was a planned folly, as was the cutting of NHS funding to the bone and the sycophantic xenophobic tirades against hard working tax paying EU doctors and nurses.

This should be a case for the law to decide there is a trail of wilful actions and ignorance to act which can be proven. I hope that these unnecessary death will be dealt with by a court, not a long grass inquiry.

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Its beginning to look as if immunity from infection isnt as good as that from vaccine, and as we know we need to keep boosting the vaccine to maintain relatively good immunity, I fear the concept of herd immunity isnt really going hit the spot with this virus  re waning vaccine and post infection immunity and a very infectious virus. I was very much against the July opening up, but gave the philosophy of getting the post opening rise in infections during the summer the benefit of the doubt, the recent figures sadly suggest that we may have got it wrong. 

If herd immunity won't stop the spread then nothing will.  The only other possible way of stopping spread for good would be for covid to become extinct in every single part of the world at the same time.   That's not happening.

If you don't believe that herd, sterilising, immunity will ever be achieved and you are not so barking mad as to believe in spontaneous extinction them exactly what would the measures you think are appropriate be for? In the past this could be explained as buying us time for vaccine delivery and medical research but the gains in these areas now will be limited so all restrictions can really do now is to 'encourage' hospital cases to come forward in the summer rather than winter.  By this token June/July would have been the 'ideal' time to reopen surely?  

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu
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3 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

 So as long as hospital admissions don’t get too high, are we now actually better off with the sort of case numbers we have now ?

I am inclined to agree. I have thought for a fair while now that the assumption that high infection rate =bad might be a thing of the past.

 Neither past exposure or vaccination appears to give 100%  (sterilising) protection from infection and won't stop you getting exposed to the pathogen. What we do know is that that best protection and nearest we get to the gold standard comes from double vaccination and exposure

So when you are exposed, as you probably will be given the R0 of delta is astronomical, would you rather that was when you still had antibodies in circulation in your blood or when only your baseline memory still existed?  Would you rather be exposed go a virus against which the vaccine still has very good efficacy or an indeterminate variant?

And that's before the NHS seasons come into play 

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

I'd like to share your mild optimism but I'm beginning to get a bit twitchy 😃

I share your twitchiness VW. I can see lots of people who come up with all sorts of reasons why in some manner it's 'gone away' or we can or should ignore it i.e. 'Herd Immunity ' as per BB (that idea as a solution died last summer) or that it is in some undefined manner already 'endemic' by which I think they mean steady state. The summer pause was likely simply a Iull before the storm.

Simply for me its just a numbers game. We've all had flu (or very bad colds) at some point - sometimes more than once. Once we've all had Covid once or twice then we will be at 'steady state'. Not until.

Until that point it's really now just a question of managing the numbers - if you let, as we currently are on course for,  millions to become infected then expect thousands of hospitalizations.  

As ever the current hospitalizations let alone deaths relate to infections caught likely 2 or 3 weeks ago - when the confirmed PCR tests were a lot lot less. Higher hospitalizations and deaths 2 or 3 weeks from now are already 'in the can' as far as Covid is concerned. 

We all hope for Covid to be self-limiting and the vaccine to take the edge off. But surely from a public health perspective we can't rely on our wishes or plain luck or boosterism to see us through.

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33 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Oxford in the news again...a.specific Delta vaccine this time.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/covid-vaccine-delta-oxford-latest-b1925631.html

That is certainly good news but seems slightly strange, especially given how quickly they were off the mark first time around, that they are only now starting on Delta or am I missing something really obvious?

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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