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1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Not sure if I'm misreading it but I set the weekly excess deaths to 2021 and seems to me we are pretty much in line with, if not better than, many European countries ???

Certainly seem to be better (lower average z score) than Spain, the Netherlands and Italy........and possibly Germany too ??

Happy to be corrected if I have read it wrong    

Here you go Mark. UK quite behind Italy and Spain.

I tend to use Our World in Data for such sources. Good source for lots of things.

2021-10-05_14-07-36.jpg?itok=jwxTff3E

Edited by sonyc
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3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

👍 Plenty to chew on there, although the section on @Barbe bleu's sanity, or otherwise, seemed a little flimsy 😀

You are getting offensive now.  Wind your neck in.

I'll give a illustration.  In country (a) covid tests are readily available and routinely undertaken.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies.  Just before his death he tests positive for covid and is recorded as a covid casualty.

In country (b) less value is placed on testing.  They are carried out where symptoms are present and worrying but otherwise they are not.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies. Just before his death no covid test is carried out.   He is not recorded as a covid casualty.

I'll agree with you about excess deaths, it is this measure that will reveal which of the two approaches better  reveals the true state of the pandemic but your original post was not about excess deaths, this is something you have introduced just now (and with which I would fully agree)

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

Not sure if I'm misreading it but I set the weekly excess deaths to 2021 and seems to me we are pretty much in line with, if not better than, many European countries ???

Certainly seem to be better (lower average z score) than Spain, the Netherlands and Italy........and possibly Germany too ??

Happy to be corrected if I have read it wrong    

Can you say that again for CM's benefit?

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2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Not sure if I'm misreading it but I set the weekly excess deaths to 2021 and seems to me we are pretty much in line with, if not better than, many European countries ???

Certainly seem to be better (lower average z score) than Spain, the Netherlands and Italy........and possibly Germany too ??

Happy to be corrected if I have read it wrong    

I haven't looked at this for ages - but I think you can ONLY see 'weekly' z scores not cumulative. Choose your poison! Perhaps I'm playing with the site wrong too!

SonyC graphs look and feel correct.

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

You are getting offensive now.  Wind your neck in.

I'll give a illustration.  In country (a) covid tests are readily available and routinely undertaken.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies.  Just before his death he tests positive for covid and is recorded as a covid casualty.

In country (b) less value is placed on testing.  They are carried out where symptoms are present and worrying but otherwise they are not.  Unfortunately a man has terminal cancer and dies. Just before his death no covid test is carried out.   He is not recorded as a covid casualty.

I'll agree with you about excess deaths, it is this measure that will reveal which of the two approaches better  reveals the true state of the pandemic but your original post was not about excess deaths, this is something you have introduced just now (and with which I would fully agree)

 

Your examples are contrived, marginal and irrelevant, and in any case you have no evidence that there is any significant difference in testing strategy between the two countries I compared. But since you don't like the result of the comparison, you are groping for a very speculative and unsubstantiated explanation to replace the several factual explanations I provided.

But enough of that futile discussion - I did introduce excess deaths because you were trying to dispute other well founded statistics on very spurious grounds, and excess deaths are a measure over which there can be no real dispute - something which you have just acknowledged.

So if I scroll back a few posts I see that @Sonyc has very kindly posted a nice chart showing excess deaths in a variety  of European countries which shows very clearly that France, over the course the pandemic, has performed very much better than the UK (and to nobody's surprise Germany has performed better than both).

So maybe we can give up on the nonsense that the UK performance has been good, or even average. We are in the bottom group, struggling to avoid relegation, and it is long past time we should have a Public Enquiry running to produce an objective analysis of what has gone wrong and what should be done to fix it.

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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13 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Your examples are contrived, marginal and irrelevant, and in any case you have no evidence that there is any significant difference in testing strategy between the two countries I compared. But since you don't like the result of the comparison, you are groping for a very speculative and unsubstantiated explanation to replace the several factual explanations I provided.

I don't know any more about the testing regime in France (or anywhere else) than the details provided by ricardo. I've never claimed to either.

And nor do you.   And as it is you and not me that tried to compare figures I would say that the onus is on you to demonstrate why the figures are comparable. Otherwise its just a cheapshot by you and not robust debate.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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12 hours ago, sonyc said:

Here you go Mark. UK quite behind Italy and Spain.

I tend to use Our World in Data for such sources. Good source for lots of things.

2021-10-05_14-07-36.jpg?itok=jwxTff3E

Thanks sonyc ...............that is much clearer

I guess the only issue around it is each countries method of recording Covid-19 deaths. I know for sure that Spain under-reported relevant deaths at the start of all this, it caused a huge amount of controversy amongst the Spanish people and in the media. Conversely, I seem to remember something about Belgium almost over-reporting their death figures.  

Edited by Mark .Y.

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National

34,574  - 38

rate of increase of 7.8% over 7 days

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     308.8  up 0.9% (7days)

16 patients in the N&N  5th Oct ( up 1 on previous report))

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      26,157             85.5% done                            Norwich numbers   74.6% 

2nd Dose     32,755             78.5% done                                                               68.5%

In Hospital

07-10-2021                                   6,763
06-10-2021 6,828
05-10-2021 6,850
04-10-2021 6,777
03-10-2021 6,592
02-10-2021 6,437
01-10-2021 6,590
30-09-2021 6,763

 

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On 07/10/2021 at 18:25, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think emergency opening hours for pubs was introduced during WW1.....and eventually relaxed at the end of the 1980's 

 

Did you realise this was a serious question? Emergency legislation introduced for the pandemic is still governing everything that is being done, sorry When, why and how something is being done, under this legislation. Has it been rescinded?

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21 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Did you realise this was a serious question? Emergency legislation introduced for the pandemic is still governing everything that is being done, sorry When, why and how something is being done, under this legislation. Has it been rescinded?

Yes, I realised it was a serious question 

My point was that emergency legislation can take a long time to be reversed, though @Aggy has cast doubts on the accuracy of my recollection of the example I gave 

To be honest, I'm not sure what legislation you are referring to, as I haven't paid close enough attention to covid in the UK 😳

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Two graphs and data taken today from the Govt. Covid 'Daily Summary'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

You can see at a stroke why I don't read too much into the headline 'daily' PCR confirmed tests as opposed to true random sampling -

People tested positive UP 7.8% on the week BUT virus tests conducted DOWN 14.2% on the week. I guess as per comments on testing in other countries  if you don't test you won't find. Seems that could apply to us as well.

Who are we fooling ? 

Cases

People tested positive

Latest data provided on 10 October 2021

Daily
34,574
Last 7 days
260,787
arrow 18,782 (7.8%)
Rate per 100,000 people:  348.3Graph - click for more details

Testing

Virus tests conducted

Latest data provided on 7 October 2021

Daily
962,225
Last 7 days
5,872,003
arrow -973,733 (-14.2%)

Graph - click for more details

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15 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Two graphs and data taken today from the Govt. Covid 'Daily Summary'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

You can see at a stroke why I don't read too much into the headline 'daily' PCR confirmed tests as opposed to true random sampling -

People tested positive UP 7.8% on the week BUT virus tests conducted DOWN 14.2% on the week. I guess as per comments on testing in other countries  if you don't test you won't find. Seems that could apply to us as well.

Who are we fooling ? 

Cases

People tested positive

Latest data provided on 10 October 2021

Daily
34,574
Last 7 days
260,787
arrow 18,782 (7.8%)
Rate per 100,000 people:  348.3Graph - click for more details

Testing

Virus tests conducted

Latest data provided on 7 October 2021

Daily
962,225
Last 7 days
5,872,003
arrow -973,733 (-14.2%)

Graph - click for more details

I don’t think anyone is fooling or trying to fool anyone. I don’t think anyone is saying we haven’t got infections. We clearly have got high cases but hospitalisations haven’t followed. On that basis, why is there any need to try and fool people?

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18 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Did you realise this was a serious question? Emergency legislation introduced for the pandemic is still governing everything that is being done, sorry When, why and how something is being done, under this legislation. Has it been rescinded?

Didn’t the measures all have a vote in Parliament after they were brought in (admittedly quite belatedly in a number of cases)? Wasn’t there a long stop date on the legislation? I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that I don’t know and have vague memories of these things from months and months ago. 

What emergency measures are currently in place / what emergency legislation is currently governing everything we do?

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National

40,244  - 28

rate of increase of 11.4% over 7 days waving slowly up and down for a couple of months now

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     308.8  down 3.3% (7days)

16 patients in the N&N  5th Oct ( up 1 on previous report))

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      22,106             85.5% done                            Norwich numbers   74.6% 

2nd Dose     19,451             78.6% done                                                               68%

In Hospital

08-10-2021                                        6,728
07-10-2021 6,770
06-10-2021 6,832
05-10-2021 6,852
04-10-2021 6,780
03-10-2021 6,594
02-10-2021 6,439
01-10-2021 6,592
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9 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

What will happen to all the graph paper once this is over?

Make masks out of them.👍

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Interesting report from a couple of HoC Select Committee's and makes many of the same criticisms of this Government's appalling response to the pandemic that some of us were making on here over a year ago in the face of some virulent criticism from the Johnson apologists https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/12/covid-response-one-of-uks-worst-ever-public-health-failures or the front page of pretty much every other paper (except The Express  😂😂).

Whilst I'm trying not to drop too deeply into 'I told you so mode', there is one particular bugbear of mine which I posted  quite a few times about and attracted a lot of critcism (and/or derision) from certain posters that get a good airing - the failure to learn lessons from other countries:

The report questions why international experts were not part of the UK scientific advisory process and why measures that worked in other countries were not brought in as a precaution, as a response was hammered out.

While Public Health England told the MPs it had formally studied and rejected the South Korean approach, no evidence was provided despite repeated requests.

“We must conclude that no formal evaluation took place, which amounts to an extraordinary and negligent omission given Korea’s success in containing the pandemic, which was well publicised at the time,” the report says.

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

Whilst I'm trying not to drop too deeply into 'I told you so mode', 

😉

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This report doesn't pull its punches and does indeed confirm the dither and delay at the the start as we all know.

Whereas I could excuse it as incompetence at the start, I can't excuse the same again dither and delay this time last year and then again after Christmas. The clown cannot change his spots or learn anything from experience. Guilty as charged.

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Whilst I'm trying not to drop too deeply into 'I told you so mode', there is one particular bugbear of mine which I posted  quite a few times about and attracted a lot of critcism (and/or derision) from certain posters that get a good airing - the failure to learn lessons from other countries:

Indeed! It's really worth watching the Sky News Hotspots documentary of the Covid pandemic. It's particularly relevant because it collates news reports and interviews made throughout the progress of the crisis. I remember one interview with an Italian Mayor when Italy's health service was at breaking point (being 3 weeks ahead of us)  and the UK had at that time only experienced a handful of deaths. He literally faced the camera and pleaded with the UK government to change it's cavalier attitude to the virus predicting that it was heading for a bigger catastrophe than Italy was experiencing (he had even withdrawn his children from UK universities because of the appalling response of the government). Needless to say the government did nothing, as these reports confirm.

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The sad truth is that this government is by nature and design full of 3rd rate, unthinking populists as required by their Brexity base.

As such its no surprise to anybody that they failed so badly when faced with the pandemic. It was simply a problem well beyond their very limited competence, intelligence and imagination to handle. It simply exposed them for what they are and continue to be. Charlatans. 

At least we know why Johnson choose to 'get away' again. Don't come back. 

Edited by Yellow Fever
Alternatively - If you elect a government of fools don't be be surprised when they act foolishly. Covid doesn't care about 'boosterism' (perhaps Woosterisms) or myths.
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1 hour ago, BigFish said:

 

Yes, I think the stupidity of his comments made it pretty clear that he hadn't read it, especially all the guff about little was known about the virus, blah, blah, blah - if he had read the report at all he would have known that many of the criticisms revolve around both their poor use/decision making based on the  the information they did have and their total failure to learn from other countries and international scientists generally who had more.

Most of what he claims wasn't known at the time, was known and being acted on elsewhere. Its becoming a very well-worn phrase but in the absence of anything better it was 'just another load of Tory lies' and I imagine we're going to hear a lot more of them in the next few days.

Actually that isn't even a prediction - it's just going to be business as usual ramped up a level 😂

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30 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

At least we know why Johnson choose to 'get away' again. Don't come back. 

Yep, bizarre really for someone who apparently thinks he models himself on Churchill and Thatcher.

Don’t recall they ever hid like snivelling cowards when the going got tough, but Johnson goes into hiding every time at the first sign of trouble.

Utterly useless as a leader and the worst Prime Minister this country has ever had.

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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

wow, strong competition! I suspect there will be people in 200 years time googling Boris Johnson and his cronies and being surprised at just how inept he was as well!

Make no mistake though, the problem runs far deeper than Boris. I'd imagine the "solution" we get given is another inept and morally corrupt tory replacing him.

"We're in this together" was the biggest lie of them all. They are lucky Sarah Gilbert and co came along to save the day this year really.

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