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16 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/04/world/australia/new-zealand-covid-zero.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Standing ovation for New Zealand for being the last man standing.

They probably saved thousands of lives of their citizens and a hell of a lot of disruption but it's now the correct call in a world with vaccines and therapeutics.

It's obviously a shame we couldn't have realistically followed a similar path but there was never really much hope of that looking back in hindsight unless we'd locked down in like January 2020 and completely shut the borders at which point everyone would have thought we were bat**** crazy and we'd have completely screwed our supply lines.

It'll now be interesting to see how they go about opening up. I suspect their first proper wave of Covid will be pretty tough going so hopefully everyone that wanted to managed to get vaccinated down there.

It's one of my most favourite places I've ever been and I'd love to go back one day

I very much doubt Adern is doing this by choice. It is being forced on her by the thousands who refuse to be continuously in lockdown and are now taking to the streets in protest. The same thing is happening in Australia as anti-lockdown protests are becoming increasingly violent. The big problem these two countries have is that they relied too much on lockdowns and were tardy with vaccination rollout. As a result they have large anti-vaxxer communities. I would not be at all surprised to see infections and hospitalisations to rise to levels seen in other parts of the western world.

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8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I very much doubt Adern is doing this by choice. It is being forced on her by the thousands who refuse to be continuously in lockdown and are now taking to the streets in protest. The same thing is happening in Australia as anti-lockdown protests are becoming increasingly violent. The big problem these two countries have is that they relied too much on lockdowns and were tardy with vaccination rollout. As a result they have large anti-vaxxer communities. I would not be at all surprised to see infections and hospitalisations to rise to levels seen in other parts of the western world.

clearly it's not by choice but they did well to stem the tide as long as they did and successfully managed a pretty normal 2020 while the rest of us flailed. It was more a matter of when they'd have to give up the fight rather than if. Anyone who thought they'd be able to do the latter was deluding themselves.

My views on the whole thing have been consistent throughout, stem the infections whilst trying to keep up as much normality as possible (r=1) until a vaccine has been rolled out to the vulnerable then crack on. That appears to be what they're doing now, they just had to wait for more desperate countries to vaccinate first. ZeroCovid has always been a pipe dream.

I very much doubt they will ever see the hospitalisations/deaths levels we saw in Jan and last April since they have managed to vaccinate their population before accepting the virus but sure they'll have waves of it.

I suspect they will have relatively high vaccine uptake as well as they are by and large very much united as a country compared to the likes of USA and UK who have managed to bring politics into the vaccine debate.

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People seem to think NZ is just like us. Its a group of Islands about as far away from us as it gets. They just speak English is all.

They are more influenced by Asia than us. They trade more with Asia. They have more Asian visitors. Was it any wonder they had a great fear of Covid?

Ardern knew she had the support of the nation with her policy on Covid. But just like any other people, it does become tiresome after a while and there were bound to be protests about what seemed to be draconian measures when the number were low.

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National

39,851 - 143

rate of decrease of 2% over 7 days

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     310  up 16.3%

 

15 patients in the N&N  28th Sept ( Down from 16 on previous report))

 

Vax

1st Dose      41,347             89.8% done                 Norwich numbers   77% 

2nd Dose     28,572             82.5% done                                                     71%

In Hospital

05-10-2021                                              6,836
04-10-2021 6,768
03-10-2021 6,581
02-10-2021 6,428
01-10-2021 6,581
30-09-2021 6,753
29-09-2021 6,903
28-09-2021 7,027

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18 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I very much doubt Adern is doing this by choice. It is being forced on her by the thousands who refuse to be continuously in lockdown and are now taking to the streets in protest. The same thing is happening in Australia as anti-lockdown protests are becoming increasingly violent. The big problem these two countries have is that they relied too much on lockdowns and were tardy with vaccination rollout. As a result they have large anti-vaxxer communities. I would not be at all surprised to see infections and hospitalisations to rise to levels seen in other parts of the western world.

The protests in Auckland involved 1000 people from a population of 1.7 million. The demonstrations ( as is the same in the U.K. ) as much anti vax as anti lockdown. The government want 90% of the population vaccinated against the current 46% fully vaccinated, that seems pretty much on par with our 19/7 freedom day.

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To all those people who loved every minute of all this and seen it as a dystopian evolution…. go f*ck yourselves.

That isn’t aimed at anyone on here, as everyone here seems to hate it, all meanwhile I’ve heard from work friends that on forums of teams they support, they have been getting the occasional idiot enjoying all this. Even on a Newcastle forum someone celebrated the first lockdown.

I despair, I really do.

Edited by KernowCanary

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National

40,701 - 122

rate of decrease of 0.2% over 7 days

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     308.1  up 15%

 

16 patients in the N&N  5th Oct ( up 1 on previous report))

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      32,828             85.3% done                            Norwich numbers   74.5% 

2nd Dose     28,576             78.4% done                                                               67.9%

In Hospital

06-10-2021                                                  6,817
05-10-2021 6,846
04-10-2021 6,773
03-10-2021 6,584
02-10-2021 6,430
01-10-2021 6,583
30-09-2021 6,755
29-09-2021 6,904

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On 05/10/2021 at 13:21, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

All restrictions to do with making money, international business and holidays are being relaxed. So when can we expect the Emergency legislation to be rescinded? and end to governing by edict'making it up as you go?

I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think emergency opening hours for pubs was introduced during WW1.....and eventually relaxed at the end of the 1980's 

 

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1 hour ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think emergency opening hours for pubs was introduced during WW1.....and eventually relaxed at the end of the 1980's 

 

Not quite the same. There were laws governing pub opening times well before the war. During the war they were shortened to a few hours at lunch and a few in the evening. There were then different pieces of legislation - but they could be pretty much open from 11 to 11 with just a short break during the afternoon from the 20s until 88. After 88 there was no longer any requirement to have a break during the day. Even in the 90s though they were only allowed to be open 11-11. 

Different point though anyway I think was being made - it’s not how long current rules might last per se, but rather that the coronavirus legislation gives the government some powers to basically avoid the usual parliamentary and democratic process - they could in theory continue imposing new rules without bothering with the democratic process. Similar sort of thing during the war, but many differences between wartime legislation and the coronavirus legislation.

I also thought most of the coronavirus legislation which gave the government emergency powers had an automatic end date, but not sure on that and/or when that date is.

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Huge Zoe jump this morning. It's been increasing ominously and steadily over the last few days (was 66,000 yesterday).

I don think much more need be said as to what it means or obvious explanations why.

73,275

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Huge Zoe jump this morning. It's been increasing ominously and steadily over the last few days (was 66,000 yesterday).

Indeed. Really big rises recently. This is the graph for our metropolitan district for one year. I've never seen it as high. Back in 2020 I was nervous but now less so (though I observe social distancing and wear a mask etc) in 2021. It's not so much being worn down but more a confidence in the vaccines and the data. I sense the virus is as prevalent as ever and is simply burning through whatever holes it finds in the (collective) immunity environment. 

It gives a sign of hope rather than a sign for fear in my view with the qualification that long Covid remains in the news of course. Another fear may be newer variants but I'm again hopeful the scientific community is well up to speed.

 

IMG_20211008_092802.jpg

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37 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

It gives a sign of hope rather than a sign for fear in my view with the qualification that long Covid remains in the news of course. Another fear may be newer variants but I'm again hopeful the scientific community is well up to speed.

I think I'm in a similar space to you. 

If cases are up but admissions steady or declining I think there are arguments to saying that a high transmission rate now is actually a good thing: It updates collective immunity whilst people still have antibodies in the blood and it demonstrates the vaccines work.  There is also an argument that if people are going to need hospital better they go now than in winter when high pressure is expected.

Weighed against this at an individual level infection isn't a good thing, even if it doesn't result in a hospital admission and there is of course the, perhaps declining,  mutation argument.

It's a tough one

 

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Just now, Barbe bleu said:

I think I'm in a similar space to you. 

If cases are up but admissions steady or declining I think there are arguments to saying that a high transmission rate now is actually a good thing: It updates collective immunity whilst people still have antibodies in the blood and it demonstrates the vaccines work.  There is also an argument that if people are going to need hospital better they go now than in winter when high pressure is expected.

Weighed against this at an individual level infection isn't a good thing, even if it doesn't result in a hospital admission and there is of course the, perhaps declining,  mutation argument.

It's a tough one

 

BB - Zoe is the Canary in the coalmine. There is at least a weeks lag to confirmed PCR tests and the a week or two or even more to hospitalizations or worse. Obviously the current rises are likely largely in the kids and now just returned recently returned Uni. students much as per last year. The probably forlorn hope is it stays there as the unseasonably warm September weather now changes.

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

BB - Zoe is the Canary in the coalmine. There is at least a weeks lag to confirmed PCR tests and the a week or two or even more to hospitalizations or worse. Obviously the current rises are likely largely in the kids and now just returned recently returned Uni. students much as per last year. The probably forlorn hope is it stays there as the unseasonably warm September weather now changes.

But when Zoe numbers were dropping, didn't we see something saying actually the data is drawn from a period dating back some way, so actually there could be a pretty big lag ?  I'm not at all sure how Zoe work out their numbers and what date their daily new cases is really talking about.  We've had at least one big example in the past few months when Zoe was out of step with the other sources of data, and Zoe ended up being "recalibrated" and brought back into step with them, which TBH shook my faith in Zoe as a useful source of info.  I can't remember a point where Zoe was actually ahead of the other data sources in what it was showing.

 

As always I would say we need to be cautious and look at the different data sources critically.  Over the summer IMO the daily PCR numbers have been a solid sign of how case numbers are moving, and the ONS numbers, when then eventually come through, give us a more accurate picture but in substance bore out the daily PCR numbers - ONS numbers are still not perfect and always well out of date by the time we get them.  So, time will tell if Zoe going up at the momemnt is a first sign of increased case numbers, or have things flattened out and started to drop as per the daily PCR numbers, and the Zoe sampling method has got out of kilter with the real world (again) - it's too early to say.

 

What we can say for definite is that the projections for how case numbers and hospital admissions would increase after restrictions were relaxed back in July were way off base.  Life is very close to back to normal with schools, uni, mass gatherings all in full swing and most people not bothered about social distancing at all (from what I see).  It's always possible we'll see cases start to rise, as they did in Scotland back in August, but as yet, it's too early to say that's happening in England.

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28 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

But when Zoe numbers were dropping, didn't we see something saying actually the data is drawn from a period dating back some way, so actually there could be a pretty big lag ?  I'm not at all sure how Zoe work out their numbers and what date their daily new cases is really talking about.  We've had at least one big example in the past few months when Zoe was out of step with the other sources of data, and Zoe ended up being "recalibrated" and brought back into step with them, which TBH shook my faith in Zoe as a useful source of info.  I can't remember a point where Zoe was actually ahead of the other data sources in what it was showing.

 

As always I would say we need to be cautious and look at the different data sources critically.  Over the summer IMO the daily PCR numbers have been a solid sign of how case numbers are moving, and the ONS numbers, when then eventually come through, give us a more accurate picture but in substance bore out the daily PCR numbers - ONS numbers are still not perfect and always well out of date by the time we get them.  So, time will tell if Zoe going up at the momemnt is a first sign of increased case numbers, or have things flattened out and started to drop as per the daily PCR numbers, and the Zoe sampling method has got out of kilter with the real world (again) - it's too early to say.

 

What we can say for definite is that the projections for how case numbers and hospital admissions would increase after restrictions were relaxed back in July were way off base.  Life is very close to back to normal with schools, uni, mass gatherings all in full swing and most people not bothered about social distancing at all (from what I see).  It's always possible we'll see cases start to rise, as they did in Scotland back in August, but as yet, it's too early to say that's happening in England.

Zoe is the the most 'immediate' of any estimates and it attempts to calibrate itself against ONS (out today - Covid increasing) which is the only measure I truly trust. However the whole reason Zoe exists is to give an immediate figure and because the 'confirmed' headline PCR tests are incredibly unreliable as to the true position for all sorts of well known issues - off often by a factor of 2.

I see however Zoe has recalibrated itself again in last few days as well.

ONS today (England)

Around one in 70 people in private households in England had Covid in the week to 2 October.

The number is up from one in 85 the previous week, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

  

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Zoe is the the most 'immediate' of any estimates and it attempts to calibrate itself against ONS (out today - Covid increasing) which is the only measure I truly trust. However the whole reason Zoe exists is to give an immediate figure and because the 'confirmed' headline PCR tests are incredibly unreliable as to the true position for all sorts of well known issues - off often by a factor of 2.

I see however Zoe has recalibrated itself again in last few days as well.

ONS today (England)

Around one in 70 people in private households in England had Covid in the week to 2 October.

The number is up from one in 85 the previous week, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

  

That's what I thought, but when Zoe numbers were going down I thought you found something saying they were based on a date range that was some time back, which implied it was from earlier on.  But certainly I thought Zoe is meant to be the most up to date estimate we have.  It would be good if someone can point to a clear explanation on this on the Zoe app, I can't find it !

 

I am always worried that when Zoe recalibrates they overshoot, so we see swings that are just the result of the recalibration, not a real change, so I will reserve judgement on what the increase on Zoe numbers actually means.


Also as usual the ONS number is some way out of date - I think for that period the PCR numbers were also increasing, it's since then they plateaued and started to decline slightly.  We need to remember the PCR numbers are showing newly reported infections which will tend to be sooner after people have caught Covid, whereas ONS is a random snapshot of people who are suffering from Covid during that period, so will be on average later in the infection cycle, and this increases how far the ONS data is out of date.

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On the Streets Report

Norwich City centre busier than of late. Mask wearing outside is now minimal and I estimate it at below 5%.

Marks and Spencers.     about 80%mask wearing for customers but less than 25% for staff

Sainsburys Queeens Rd           very similar numbers.

Looks like shop floor staff have mostly given up on mask wearing as a pointless exercise. If it did any good you would expect that those working on the front line on checkouts etc would be the first to advocate it, but this is not the case in reality.

 

Edited by ricardo

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1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

That's what I thought, but when Zoe numbers were going down I thought you found something saying they were based on a date range that was some time back, which implied it was from earlier on.  But certainly I thought Zoe is meant to be the most up to date estimate we have.  It would be good if someone can point to a clear explanation on this on the Zoe app, I can't find it !

 

I am always worried that when Zoe recalibrates they overshoot, so we see swings that are just the result of the recalibration, not a real change, so I will reserve judgement on what the increase on Zoe numbers actually means.


Also as usual the ONS number is some way out of date - I think for that period the PCR numbers were also increasing, it's since then they plateaued and started to decline slightly.  We need to remember the PCR numbers are showing newly reported infections which will tend to be sooner after people have caught Covid, whereas ONS is a random snapshot of people who are suffering from Covid during that period, so will be on average later in the infection cycle, and this increases how far the ONS data is out of date.

There you go - it seems to have been put back at 60,000 (from this morning) but

Estimated on 08 October based on data from 20 September to 04 October

More detail on the analysis

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43 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

There you go - it seems to have been put back at 60,000 (from this morning) but

Estimated on 08 October based on data from 20 September to 04 October

More detail on the analysis

60,251 now.

Wuss gorn on?

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15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

60,251 now.

Wuss gorn on?

I don't know! But let's keep up the enquiry...Bradford's figures have gone down 3000 in the last hour😄 ...we must be doing something right. Tim Spector a reader here? (on the UK's best non football Covid analysis football forum😉)

Edited by sonyc
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National

36,060 - 127

rate of increase of 0.1% over 7 days

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     318.1  down 0.2% (7days)

16 patients in the N&N  5th Oct ( up 1 on previous report))

 

Vax ( vax percentages have been recalibrated to include 12-16 yr olds)

1st Dose      33,029             85.4% done                            Norwich numbers   74.5% 

2nd Dose     28,656             78.4% done                                                               67.9%

 

In Hospital

07-10-2021                                         6,763
06-10-2021 6,828
05-10-2021 6,850
04-10-2021 6,777
03-10-2021 6,592
02-10-2021 6,437
01-10-2021 6,590

Very little change overall in the past week.

 

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10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

..Bradford's figures have gone down 3000 in the last hour😄 ...we must be doing something right.

Possible good news depending of course upon which Hospital door they exited by.😄

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

On the Streets Report

Norwich City centre busier than of late. Mask wearing outside is now minimal and I estimate it at below 5%.

Marks and Spencers.     about 80%mask wearing for customers but less than 25% for staff

Sainsburys Queeens Rd           very similar numbers.

Looks like shop floor staff have mostly given up on mask wearing as a pointless exercise. If it did any good you would expect that those working on the front line on checkouts etc would be the first to advocate it, but this is not the case in reality.

 

I have to admit to being confused by our high daily case numbers versus some European countries.

Within the last 3-4 weeks I have been in both Holland and Spain - neither of those countries appears to be doing anything different to us yet their figures (even adjusted for population) are way below.

In both countries, masks are required on public transport (not sure if that happens here), but apart from that you rarely see a mask at all. Bars and restaurants are open with no social distancing, you don't see anybody in a mask in the supermarket and you generally wouldn't know there was any kind of issue.

Yet we have had an average of around 30,000 cases a day for what seems like a couple of months now, it just doesn't feel right to me. Is anybody any good with conspiracy theories ???  😆

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

60,251 now.

Wuss gorn on?

Weird, 73000 this morning and even Specter yesterday said 66K and going up.

"COVID cases in children continue to climb

October 7, 2021

According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 66,033 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago [*]. An increase of 13.6% from 58,126 new daily cases last week. "

It's obviously a change or gremlin in their estimating again (trend is upward) but needs some (proper) explanation.

Anyway - ONS as ever.

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

On the Streets Report

Norwich City centre busier than of late. Mask wearing outside is now minimal and I estimate it at below 5%.

Marks and Spencers.     about 80%mask wearing for customers but less than 25% for staff

Sainsburys Queeens Rd           very similar numbers.

Looks like shop floor staff have mostly given up on mask wearing as a pointless exercise. If it did any good you would expect that those working on the front line on checkouts etc would be the first to advocate it, but this is not the case in reality.

I think mask wearing is declining for the same reason it's ok for people to mix at mass gatherings and not social distance like we were.  The level of immunity in the population from vaccines and past infections is currently enough that we can get away without those, it doesn't mean they didn't suppress the virus when we used them.

 

12 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I have to admit to being confused by our high daily case numbers versus some European countries.

Within the last 3-4 weeks I have been in both Holland and Spain - neither of those countries appears to be doing anything different to us yet their figures (even adjusted for population) are way below.

In both countries, masks are required on public transport (not sure if that happens here), but apart from that you rarely see a mask at all. Bars and restaurants are open with no social distancing, you don't see anybody in a mask in the supermarket and you generally wouldn't know there was any kind of issue.

Yet we have had an average of around 30,000 cases a day for what seems like a couple of months now, it just doesn't feel right to me. Is anybody any good with conspiracy theories ???  😆

How much are they testing ?  We always seem to be doing a lot of testing compared to others whenever I see it compared, if they are testing less then they'll be finding fewer cases.

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Just now, It's Character Forming said:

How much are they testing ?  We always seem to be doing a lot of testing compared to others whenever I see it compared, if they are testing less then they'll be finding fewer cases.

That why we have to look at statistical random sampling not simply positive tests for a true picture. 

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12 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I have to admit to being confused by our high daily case numbers versus some European countries.

Within the last 3-4 weeks I have been in both Holland and Spain - neither of those countries appears to be doing anything different to us yet their figures (even adjusted for population) are way below.

In both countries, masks are required on public transport (not sure if that happens here), but apart from that you rarely see a mask at all. Bars and restaurants are open with no social distancing, you don't see anybody in a mask in the supermarket and you generally wouldn't know there was any kind of issue.

Yet we have had an average of around 30,000 cases a day for what seems like a couple of months now, it just doesn't feel right to me. Is anybody any good with conspiracy theories ???  😆

Test more, find more.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

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3 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I think mask wearing is declining for the same reason it's ok for people to mix at mass gatherings and not social distance like we were.  The level of immunity in the population from vaccines and past infections is currently enough that we can get away without those, it doesn't mean they didn't suppress the virus when we used them.

 

How much are they testing ?  We always seem to be doing a lot of testing compared to others whenever I see it compared, if they are testing less then they'll be finding fewer cases.

Yes, that is a fair point, I'll try and find out.

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Ricardo has delivered..................

Hasn't really helped me though, the Netherlands has pretty much exactly 1/4 of our population, is doing 1/4 as many tests and yet has way less than 1/4 cases.

Spain doesn't work out quite as clearly as that but still looks to be in much better shape. 

 

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