Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,384]

National

36,100 - 49

rate of decrease 12.1% .(7 days)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     191.3   down 13.4% on the week

(32 patients in N&N   up from 19               ( updated to 14th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      14,586              89.5% done                 Norwich numbers   76.9%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     35,131                81.8% done                                                69.7%

In Hospital (dropping sharply now0

17-09-2021	7,847
16-09-2021	8,077
15-09-2021	8,368
14-09-2021	8,372
13-09-2021	8,452
12-09-2021	8,233
11-09-2021	8,126
10-09-2021	8,298

[ricardo 7,384]

[Van wink 2,994]

22 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hospitalisation figures very encouraging, oddly have heard of two friends testing positive today in different parts of the country.

[KiwiScot 1,443]

On 15/09/2021 at 20:06, It's Character Forming said:

given summer in Scotland is only a relative concept ?

Summer in Scotland is not cold, but now it's not warm nor cold plus theres less daylight hours.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

19 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

Summer in Scotland is not cold, but now it's not warm nor cold plus theres less daylight hours.

😂 thanks Ken. How’s it going there , are cases dropping? What’s the thinking about the big increase in cases in August? Do people think they’re over the worst or is there talk about restrictions being reimposed?

 

it would be good to hear from someone on the ground, the press here have by & large stopped taking about Covid except about foreign travel. I’m sure that would change if cases start to shoot up in England though! 

 

[sonyc 5,511]

A good update here (10 points in his summary of where we are and useful questions follow his thread. Especially interesting are the ages and the profile of new infections). He begins to contemplate endemicity too (which is what our team needs in the PL....attempt at a cross forum joke😐).

For interest (click to open it up).

 

Edited September 21, 2021 by sonyc

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

Getting very close to breakdown in civil order in Australia where police are using tear gas against protestors. In this video it is construction workers who have been told they must get a jab in order to work. Seems much more reluctance to get vaxxed down under than here.

 

[Aggy 755]

10 hours ago, sonyc said:

A good update here (10 points in his summary of where we are and useful questions follow his thread. Especially interesting are the ages and the profile of new infections). He begins to contemplate endemicity too (which is what our team needs in the PL....attempt at a cross forum joke😐).

For interest (click to open it up).

 

I’m really rather missing what the point of his tweet was.

It starts by literally saying “insert your own assumptions here” when saying how he made his assumptions that led to the calculations.

It concludes by saying “the above is unreliable”.

Who is he? Not someone whose models the government is actually using presumably?

 

[Barbe bleu 823]

12 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I’m really rather missing what the point of his tweet was.

It starts by literally saying “insert your own assumptions here” when saying how he made his assumptions that led to the calculations.

It concludes by saying “the above is unreliable”.

Who is he? Not someone whose models the government is actually using presumably?

 

I think that's a bit unfair. Any prediction of the future is going to be full of assumptions and uncertainty, he is just being upfront about his.

The basic hypothesis seems to be that this will probably continue to be endemic rather than becoming extinct as there will be a balance between newly developed/reinvigorated immunity and the natural waning of immunity on the other.

This rather seems to me to be a call for us to now put this behind us and carry on as normal as we are already in an endemic state and that won't change whatever we now do...

[KiwiScot 1,443]

14 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

😂 thanks Ken. How’s it going there , are cases dropping? What’s the thinking about the big increase in cases in August? Do people think they’re over the worst or is there talk about restrictions being reimposed?

it would be good to hear from someone on the ground, the press here have by & large stopped taking about Covid except about foreign travel. I’m sure that would change if cases start to shoot up in England though! 

 

Err I'm the wrong person to ask for the finger on the pulse. Lots of people talk about the rise in cases but it's pretty much live as normal from what I can tell with the usual awareness. Social distancing observed a tiny bit and we still need to wear masks. Cases got up to 6.7k and seem to be falling at a good steady rate now. Nicola is saying what I imagine Boris is saying in that cases are high and pushing the number of younger people involved to help push vaccination as it's helping reduce serious illness. Talk about maybe reintroducing restrictions, but stresses that increases were expected athough bigger than thought . So it was basically its high, but not high enough yet. Recently the headlines have been taken up with Ambulances and covid passports for large events including football+nightclubs(1st October) up here as a measure to be doing something. They are working to increase ventaltion in schools and workplaces.

Cases seem to slowly go up at the beginning of August, then rocketed a week after we opened up(9th August) so by the time schools went back(around 18th ish) it was already shooting up, but schools could have feed it more. I'd say the weather has been good up recently and warmer in general than you'd expect, August was a bit ****, but September has been good.

Lots of talk about NHS struggling up here in line with everywhere else I imagine. Various council areas have suspended non-urgent procedures and the % of Abulance times being met in 8 mins has dropped a good bit as the volume of calls has rocketed.We have request miltary help in that regard. Social services are also in my opinion are greatly affected by lack of staff with people changing jobs(and less foreigners to fill jobs) due to high number of vacanies. So you'll finding you're discharged from care more quickly and the council has basically said they are cutting everything back to prioritise the most vulerable. There is a bit of critism in regard to closing the Louisa Jordan(scottish nightingale) which could be picking up slack, but it's Glasgows/Scotlands major event centre so is needed for COP26

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

54 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think that's a bit unfair. Any prediction of the future is going to be full of assumptions and uncertainty, he is just being upfront about his.

The basic hypothesis seems to be that this will probably continue to be endemic rather than becoming extinct as there will be a balance between newly developed/reinvigorated immunity and the natural waning of immunity on the other.

This rather seems to me to be a call for us to now put this behind us and carry on as normal as we are already in an endemic state and that won't change whatever we now do...

All it tells me is that during August and early September we've been in an unstable bumpy balance at c. 50K cases/day. 

As the autumn progresses with more of us inside, schools and universities returning that unlikely balance will change.

[Aggy 755]

42 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think that's a bit unfair. Any prediction of the future is going to be full of assumptions and uncertainty, he is just being upfront about his.

The basic hypothesis seems to be that this will probably continue to be endemic rather than becoming extinct as there will be a balance between newly developed/reinvigorated immunity and the natural waning of immunity on the other.

This rather seems to me to be a call for us to now put this behind us and carry on as normal as we are already in an endemic state and that won't change whatever we now do...

I’m not sure that’s right. He isn’t really making any predictions for the future. He literally ends it by saying the above is all a load of nonsense so don’t pay much attention to it, but it’s interesting if we ignore reality. 

If he was using ONS random sample stats, or had some data to support why he thinks we’re capturing 50 per cent of infections, then it is useful. But he assumes 50 per cent and literally says you can change this and add in whatever random number you want.

If he had made an analysis incorporating behavioural impact, then it would have been interesting to see how he thinks that will affect things in the coming months (when clearly behaviours are going to change even more as winter comes). But he doesn’t - he basically says you should pretend behaviour doesn’t matter when reading these tweets, but reminds us at the end that the tweets are all a load of nonsense because behaviour does, in fact,  matter.

It’s a bit like analysing a football match we’ve just lost 4-0 by saying if you assume we had xgoals of seven (feel free to switch this in for whatever xgoals you want) and if you just pretend we didn’t concede four, really we won the game.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

BBC - 

England: 100,000 children off school with Covid or suspected Covid in one day last week

 

Richard Adams

The reopening of schools in England has sparked a huge surge in Covid cases among students and pupils in England, with official figures showing that more than 100,000 children were absent with confirmed or suspected coronavirus infections last week.

The figures from the Department for Education revealed that fewer than 92% of pupils were present in classrooms on 16 September, with 59,000 absent with confirmed cases of Covid-19 and a further 45,000 off with suspected cases.

Another 2,000 children missed school “due to attendance restrictions being in place to manage an outbreak,” according to the DfE.

The total of 103,000 with confirmed or suspected cases is higher than the number seen at the end of the last school year. In mid-July the DfE said just 82,000 children were absent with confirmed or suspected cases.
The statistics are the first official indications of the spread of the virus within schools and colleges since the start of the new school year at the start of September, when the use of preventive measures such as mask wearing, social distancing and the use of small group “bubbles” was abandoned by the DfE.

In July more than a million children were absent overall, but that included more than 930,000 children self-isolating because of classroom contacts. This year the DfE has said that children who are close contacts of confirmed or suspected cases do not need to self-isolate unless they display symptoms.

Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “It is clear from the fact that over 100,000 pupils were absent from school last week with a confirmed or suspected case of coronavirus that educational disruption remains significant. We are hearing of schools where significant numbers of pupils are absent.
“We are hopeful that the vaccination programme for 12 to 15-year-olds will help to reduce this level of disruption. However, the government must also take more action to support schools and colleges.

“It should launch a public information campaign to encourage twice-weekly home-testing among pupils in the appropriate age groups, provide funding for high-quality ventilation systems in schools and colleges, and commit to providing more support if on-site testing is directed under the contingency framework.”

Barton also urged the government to publish its plans for 2022’s A-level and GCSE exams, saying it was “extremely frustrating” that guidance has still not been issued.

Nadhim Zahawi, the new education secretary, said it was “fantastic” to see more than 91% of children back in the classroom, compare with 87% this time last year. “That’s down to the hard work of teachers, support staff as well as families whose efforts have been heroic in making sure children can get back to school safely.

“The rollout of the vaccine to those aged 12-15, which started this week, is another significant step in building the walls of protection from the virus across society,” Zahawi said.

[sonyc 5,511]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

I’m really rather missing what the point of his tweet was.

It starts by literally saying “insert your own assumptions here” when saying how he made his assumptions that led to the calculations.

It concludes by saying “the above is unreliable”.

Who is he? Not someone whose models the government is actually using presumably?

 

You sound like the fella on the thread who makes a "terse" statement about his thread being rather pointless. Which in some ways he is. I like his takes because he offers ideas and has no agenda one way or the other. I like his musings because they open up questions. He is an observer and somewhat of a geek (imo) but he offers some ideas and possible reasons for trends in data. Would rather read his thoughts than Piers Morgan or someone like Julia Hartley Brewer (to pick two people) who just offer populist opinion. Oliver Johnson is also worth following as well as John Burn Murdoch for their charts and thoughts.

I know you like your analysis and evidence Aggy (no bad thing because folk, including me, need to be called out from time to time in making grander comments than can be supported). This bloke though is probably not for you!🙂

[Barbe bleu 823]

54 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I’m not sure that’s right. He isn’t really making any predictions for the future. He literally ends it by saying the above is all a load of nonsense so don’t pay much attention to it, but it’s interesting if we ignore reality. 

If he was using ONS random sample stats, or had some data to support why he thinks we’re capturing 50 per cent of infections, then it is useful. But he assumes 50 per cent and literally says you can change this and add in whatever random number you want.

If he had made an analysis incorporating behavioural impact, then it would have been interesting to see how he thinks that will affect things in the coming months (when clearly behaviours are going to change even more as winter comes). But he doesn’t - he basically says you should pretend behaviour doesn’t matter when reading these tweets, but reminds us at the end that the tweets are all a load of nonsense because behaviour does, in fact,  matter.

It’s a bit like analysing a football match we’ve just lost 4-0 by saying if you assume we had xgoals of seven (feel free to switch this in for whatever xgoals you want) and if you just pretend we didn’t concede four, really we won the game.

 

I guess the thing to do is run this again at the end of September.   If there is still balance then we really might be seeing the long term.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I guess the thing to do is run this again at the end of September.   If there is still balance then we really might be seeing the long term.

 

 

15 hours ago, sonyc said:

A good update here (10 points in his summary of where we are and useful questions follow his thread. Especially interesting are the ages and the profile of new infections). He begins to contemplate endemicity too (which is what our team needs in the PL....attempt at a cross forum joke😐).

For interest (click to open it up).

 

Although he makes quite sensible points - my biggest concern with his hypothesis is simply that he assumes 'human factors' remain constant. Frankly I think they dominate (driven by the weather, holidays, jobs/students and indeed in the extreme lockdowns!

[ricardo 7,384]

4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

This rather seems to me to be a call for us to now put this behind us and carry on as normal as we are already in an endemic state and that won't change whatever we now do...

Thats been clear for some time now.

[ricardo 7,384]

National

31,564 - 203

rate of decrease 5.7% .(7 days)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     waiting for update

 

 

Vax

1st Dose      24,684              89.5% done                 Norwich numbers   76.9%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     46,451                81.9% done                                                69.7%

In Hospital

20-09-2021	7,731
19-09-2021	7,695
18-09-2021	7,649
17-09-2021	7,870
16-09-2021	8,083
15-09-2021	8,370
14-09-2021	8,371
13-09-2021	8,451

[Herman 9,756]

We seemed to be quite blasé about 150-200 people dying a day. 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

Kári Stefánsson says delta is probably the worst variant that we will see. 

"My guess is that what we are seeing now is probably the most infectious virus we are going to see. We shouldn't be sitting here in deep anxiety over the possibility that the virus will mutate even more and develop an even more infectious form of itself,” deCODE genetics boss Kári Stefánsson told Norway’s TV2 this weekend.

 

The Delta variant caused enormous disruption in Iceland this summer and is prevalent around the world. The variant hit Iceland hard following the completion of the initial vaccination programme and the removal of all domestic anti-contagion measures. It is only now that Iceland finally appears to be seeing the end of its fourth wave of infection. 

In interview with TV2 (in English), Kári said he is hopeful vaccine manufacturers are developing better vaccines, but also that the ones currently in use are making a big difference in preventing infection and avoiding serious illness. “We need such [new] vaccines. If that succeeds, we can say goodbye to this virus for good.” 

According to TV5, Iceland is probably the only country in the world where all positive test samples have been genetically sequenced, and that deCODE therefore holds important information on the development of the virus that causes COVID-19. 

Kári believes that the virus has probably mutated 50 million times already and that this development will continue. “It is possible we will see variants that are as contagious as Delta but less damaging. Viruses are only interested in infecting and damaging the host as little as possible. They just want to survive.” 

Kári says sequencing has prevented further outbreaks in Iceland. The country’s methods have garnered international attention. “I am sure that in the future when and epidemic like this comes, the virus will be sequenced everywhere, to the extent that we have been doing.” 

Kári has been a regular and cautionary voice in the media throughout the pandemic. He has advocated stronger restrictions and warned of the potential of new, more dangerous variants. His words on the Delta variant therefore mark a change of tone and a more positive note that the pandemic may now be slowly coming to an end. 

 

[ricardo 7,384]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

We seemed to be quite blasé about 150-200 people dying a day. 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Excess deaths per 100k worldwide, some interesting charts.

 

[Herman 9,756]

I bet Paddington Bear is glad he moved. 

[ricardo 7,384]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

I bet Paddington Bear is glad he moved. 

Lets hope he didn't die from a heart attack, there's 460 of those every day unfortunately.

[ricardo 7,384]

Admissions still looking very positive

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

We seemed to be quite blasé about 150-200 people dying a day. 

Yes it's very interesting what we are used to and what is newsworthy.

 

According to the ONS in July Covid accounted for 2.4% of deaths in England, about 1/4 of the number caused by dementia/Alzheimers, and we're totally blasé about that too.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/july2021

[Herman 9,756]

Maybe people are blase as they're not easily catchable, have been around for so long and/or they simply see them as a sympton of aging. Who knows??

[Indy 3,297]

58 minutes ago, Herman said:

Maybe people are blase as they're not easily catchable, have been around for so long and/or they simply see them as a sympton of aging. Who knows??

I don’t think it’s a bad thing to become blase about the numbers Herman, as sad as any death is, it indicates we’re becoming used to living with Covid. I’m still at a loss if these are died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. My great uncle died recently with 28 days of testing positive but ad a heart attack, not sure how he was registered on his certificate.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Indy

[Aggy 755]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Maybe people are blase as they're not easily catchable, have been around for so long and/or they simply see them as a sympton of aging. Who knows??

So why shouldn’t covid be any different?
 

(Edit: lots of deaths every year from flu and pneumonia developing as a result of infectious ‘catchable’ diseases.)

Edited September 21, 2021 by Aggy

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

I don’t think it’s a bad thing to become blase about the numbers Herman, as sad as any death is, it indicates we’re becoming used to living with Covid. I’m still at a loss if these are died within 28 days of a positive Covid test. My great uncle died recently with 28 days of testing positive but ad a heart attack, not sure how he was registered on his certificate.

yep I think at this level, context is needed on those 150 daily deaths and just how avoidable they were... were those people vaccinated? Did those people have other strong comorbodities? How old were they?

If its 150 innocent little otherwise healthy kids dying then it's a different story altogether.

Sure, if we get back to 1k/2k deaths a day again then we have an issue.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

Melbourne riots from close up to the action. Lots of swearing so maybe nsfw.