Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,199]

9 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

no idea, just assume it ties in with their winter so when we have summer 🤷‍♂️ I might have read somewhere that there is actually a bit of a pattern of flu flow though but can't remember where

If I have read this right, remarkably low

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

If I have read this right, remarkably low

the link is broken for your pdf

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

15 hours ago, Well b back said:

Sorry I was talking Asia. 
When does flu season start in South Africa ?

 

15 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

no idea, just assume it ties in with their winter so when we have summer 🤷‍♂️ I might have read somewhere that there is actually a bit of a pattern of flu flow though but can't remember where

I would agree (or remain very hopeful) that flu wont be a big problem this autumn unlike Covid where I fear a sting in its very long tail. The restrictions for the very much more contagious Covid have generally knocked flu on its head. 

Flu's tend to start in SE Asia - then Southern hemisphere before us. That's how we make an educated guess as to what flu vaccines to make/give - we get some notice period as to what's on its way (see below - from February for use in the following autumn /winter!) .

https://www.who.int/initiatives/global-influenza-surveillance-and-response-system

[sonyc 5,510]

A decent summary here (and I ought to thank @ron obvious for introducing me to Unherd during those early months of lockdown ....it's been a very good source of independent thinking - with different ways of looking at mainstream stories).

The article is uncontroversial and looks at potential rates during the coming autumn (quoting Oliver Johnson too who I follow for his unbiased comment and analysis on Twitter).

Anyway, copying for interest.

https://unherd.com/2021/09/are-we-heading-for-another-winter-lockdown/

[ricardo 7,381]

National

26,628 - 185

rate of decrease 14.3%  a sharp fall confirming the ZOE numbers and on which is usually a big day for post weekend catch up.

England (19739) Scotland (3375) Wales (1924) and Northern Ireland (1590).

Local

Norwich infection rate     273.6   down 30% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      19,428              89.2% done                 Norwich numbers   76.7%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     60,653                81.2% done                                                68.9%

In Hospital  

13-09-2021	8,413
12-09-2021	8,203
11-09-2021	8,104
10-09-2021	8,281
09-09-2021	8,114
08-09-2021	8,113
07-09-2021	7,956
06-09-2021	8,021

Edited September 14, 2021 by ricardo

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I would agree (or remain very hopeful) that flu wont be a big problem this autumn unlike Covid where I fear a sting in its very long tail. The restrictions for the very much more contagious Covid have generally knocked flu on its head. 

Flu's tend to start in SE Asia - then Southern hemisphere before us. That's how we make an educated guess as to what flu vaccines to make/give - we get some notice period as to what's on its way (see below - from February for use in the following autumn /winter!) .

https://www.who.int/initiatives/global-influenza-surveillance-and-response-system

I guess we are going to test the strength of these vaccines but I just can't see it being anywhere near as bleak as last year before they were about. We are basically living as normal and the cases still are yet to rocket even remotely. In some ways it's slightly concerning they didn't hop up to 100k a day then the mythical "herd immunity" take over as it does leave a slightly significant level of unexposed/unvaccinated people, mainly kids. These would be the likely kindling for fuelling any breakthrough cases in old/vulnerable vaccinated that might end up in hospital.

Anecdotally, my double jabbed auntie tested positive a couple of weeks ago and had a bit of a rough time (on the mend now thankfully) but interestingly had been at a massive family party and around family all weekend yet passed it on to nobody. Given the party was like a day or 2 before she was positive, its unlikely she caught it there so its incredibly encouraging to see first hand how it somehow didn't spread despite so many potential contacts.

I just don't see these vaccines waning anything like as quickly some would have you believe. There'll be a level of protection there that will last for years.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

So if Plan A doesn't work we are going to have to rely on Ben Drew.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Who the fcuk is Nicky Minaj. Never heard of her. 

[ricardo 7,381]

6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Who the fcuk is Nicky Minaj. Never heard of her. 

This ****

 

 

[ricardo 7,381]

Her latest 😂

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Her latest 😂

 

I expect plenty have "lied" on her😝

[Herman 9,754]

An interesting opinion piece from the BMJ which attempts to show some of the dishonesty amongst the denialists.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/09/13/covid-19-and-the-new-merchants-of-doubt/

[Tetteys Jig 830]

5 hours ago, ricardo said:

Her latest 😂

 

weird thing about all this is that it sounds like she's going to get/already has got the vaccine, her message seems to be for people to come to that decision themselves rather than feel forced to get it. I don't think her comments are particularly helpful obviously though...

[Herman 9,754]

 

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

Zoe app going up again. It's really been quite stable at c. 46000 for few days but I see today is back over 47000. Small beer.

https://twitter.com/timspector

All that said I think the bigger picture shows that Covid over the summer has been relatively stable - too high and we've all become complacent - but the mid July drop was nowhere near as big as we like to think it was - as ONS incidence shows -

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/infections#infections

Can you see the little dip around mid July. Have to look closely. Of course ONS involves some smoothing  but I'm beginning to think the daily Zoe's and indeed confirmed PCR testing up and down are really measuring the daily 'weather' as opposed to any Covid 'climate' change. A few hot days and everybody outside and things look better, a wet week as in the 'Boardmasters' and it looks dreadful. Of course that may be informative as to what will happen this autumn. 

[ricardo 7,381]

National

30,597 - 201

rate of decrease 18.4% .(7 days)

All UK nations except N.I. heading downward compared with last weeks numbers.

England: 29,286 -> 22,078 (-24.6%)
Scotland: 5,810 -> 4,917 (-15.3%)
NI: 1,210 -> 1,304 (+7.8%)
Wales: 2,669 -> 2,298 (-13.9%)

Local

Norwich infection rate     249   down 29.7% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      21,478              89.2% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     61,627                81.3% done                                                69.1%

In Hospital

14-09-2021	8,340
13-09-2021	8,426
12-09-2021	8,210
11-09-2021	8,107
10-09-2021	8,281
09-09-2021	8,113
08-09-2021	8,110
07-09-2021	7,952

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

So cases in Scotland seem clearly now to have peaked, which is very encouraging.  Hopefully the "return to school" factor is now played out there.  Will there be a further "autumn" effect leading to another surge in cases ?  Or does autumn make less difference in Scotland than further south, given summer in Scotland is only a relative concept ?

 

Has anyone seen any informed speculation about whether England will now follow the trajectory for Scotland over the next few weeks ?  It's excellent to see case numbers in England falling again, but still too soon to see any increase feeding through from the return to school.

 

I think the lag is typically 5-12 days from catching Covid to showing symptoms and then we have further delays while people take tests and the results feed into the system.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Interesting article here on Israel and the way forward, sorry I've been meaning to post it for over a week !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58432776

 

My take now is that the approach is to get people vaccinated to as high a % of over 12s as you can and then get back to normal life while monitoring hospital levels and if necessary re-introducing a level of restrictions.  Also it seems to me a booster programme is essential.  Then it's a case of accepting that Covid is never going away and it's keeping the numbers manageable until immunity is widespread enough that it becomes just another disease endemic in the population that we don't think about unless it affects us personally.

 

Not sure if there are any other ideas out there at the moment ?

 

Ironically this leaves places like Australia and New Zealand which have had a relatively easy ride due to their geographical isolation facing some difficult choices for the first time.  Australia now are saying they'll basically follow the above strategy, not sure about NZ yet ?

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

15 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

So cases in Scotland seem clearly now to have peaked, which is very encouraging.  Hopefully the "return to school" factor is now played out there.  Will there be a further "autumn" effect leading to another surge in cases ?  Or does autumn make less difference in Scotland than further south, given summer in Scotland is only a relative concept ?

 

Has anyone seen any informed speculation about whether England will now follow the trajectory for Scotland over the next few weeks ?  It's excellent to see case numbers in England falling again, but still too soon to see any increase feeding through from the return to school.

 

I think the lag is typically 5-12 days from catching Covid to showing symptoms and then we have further delays while people take tests and the results feed into the system.

that would then suggest the "Euros peak" wasn't to do with the final... the peak in positive tests was 4 days afterwards.

I'd suggest now LFTs are in the system (even if it is confirmed as PCR it takes the earlier LFT as the case) the point from infection to known positive is on average less than a week

[sonyc 5,510]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Not sure if there are any other ideas out there at the moment ?

I don't think anyone really knows! Just modelling sources and that's mostly conjecture.

Your take seems about right. That Unherd article argued much the same (with a little added caution hoped for).

This link below looks at various predictions and scenarios.

Interesting that mask wearing has dropped off a cliff. It bears out what I've witnessed. Could I see the government pushing this issue back centre stage later with a strengthening of guidance in the winter? I'm unsure.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

4 hours ago, sonyc said:

I don't think anyone really knows! Just modelling sources and that's mostly conjecture.

Your take seems about right. That Unherd article argued much the same (with a little added caution hoped for).

This link below looks at various predictions and scenarios.

Interesting that mask wearing has dropped off a cliff. It bears out what I've witnessed. Could I see the government pushing this issue back centre stage later with a strengthening of guidance in the winter? I'm unsure.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

 

 

The case for mask wearing is so compelling IMO (despite the opposing expert opinion of Billy ), I really cant see why government wouldn't ensure this is enshrined in legislation ( or perhaps sadly I can looking at the parliamentary benches) , so simple, not intrusive, and an easy win. 

[ricardo 7,381]

National

26,911 - 158

rate of decrease 22.4% .(7 days)

Pretty clear now that there has been no schools effect in England.

Local

Norwich infection rate     237   down 32.4% on the week

(32 patients in N&N   up from 19               ( updated to 14th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      23,003              89.2% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     59,404                81.4% done                                                69.3%

In Hospital                   (seems to have peaked)

15-09-2021	8,339
14-09-2021	8,352
13-09-2021	8,434
12-09-2021	8,216
11-09-2021	8,113
10-09-2021	8,287
09-09-2021	8,119
08-09-2021	8,116

[ricardo 7,381]

[ricardo 7,381]

National

32,651 - 178

rate of decrease 23% .(7 days)

includes two days worth of numbers from Scotland

ZOE was sharply down again today so looks like numbers will continue downwards

Local

Norwich infection rate     220.1   down 35.9% on the week

(32 patients in N&N   up from 19               ( updated to 14th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      23,833              89.3% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     63,999                81.5% done                                                69.4%

In Hospital (lowest numbers in a week)

16-09-2021	8,068
15-09-2021	8,363
14-09-2021	8,369
13-09-2021	8,449
12-09-2021	8,231
11-09-2021	8,125
10-09-2021	8,297

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

National

32,651 - 178

rate of decrease 23% .(7 days)

includes two days worth of numbers from Scotland

ZOE was sharply down again today so looks like numbers will continue downwards

Local

Norwich infection rate     220.1   down 35.9% on the week

(32 patients in N&N   up from 19               ( updated to 14th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      23,833              89.3% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     63,999                81.5% done                                                69.4%

In Hospital (lowest numbers in a week)

16-09-2021	8,068
15-09-2021	8,363
14-09-2021	8,369
13-09-2021	8,449
12-09-2021	8,231
11-09-2021	8,125
10-09-2021	8,297

Again, completely unexpected to have a drop in numbers at this point.  And good to see the "hard" number of people in hospital has gone down.

 

I'm cautious but hopeful at the moment.

[Van wink 2,994]

48 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Again, completely unexpected to have a drop in numbers at this point.  And good to see the "hard" number of people in hospital has gone down.

 

I'm cautious but hopeful at the moment.

Its good news ICF and long may it continue

Edited September 17, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,381]

[ricardo 7,381]

National

30,141 - 164

rate of decrease 20.4% .(7 days)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     206.1   down 33.7% on the week

(32 patients in N&N   up from 19               ( updated to 14th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      19,605              89.3% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     59,032                81.6% done                                                69.5%

In Hospital

16-09-2021	8,068
15-09-2021	8,363
14-09-2021	8,369
13-09-2021	8,449
12-09-2021	8,231
11-09-2021	8,125
10-09-2021	8,297
09-09-2021	8,127

[Essjayess 307]

Just a personal family experience on the affects Covid can give to a family despite in general the nation  not having seen huge  infection increases from kids returning to school...my daughter and her husband, both in their 40s and double vaxxed and living in the Lowestoft area, had one of their 3 kids bring Covid into their household after going  back to school and both mom and dad are very ill right now suffering with many unwanted symptoms. The kids all have the virus to but seem not to be anywhere near as badly affected as  mom and dad.

As we all try to  get back to living as normal a life as can be its just a reminder of the misery this virus still causes and will continue to cause for the forseeable future.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Just a personal family experience on the affects Covid can give to a family despite in general the nation  not having seen huge  infection increases from kids returning to school...my daughter and her husband, both in their 40s and double vaxxed and living in the Lowestoft area, had one of their 3 kids bring Covid into their household after going  back to school and both mom and dad are very ill right now suffering with many unwanted symptoms. The kids all have the virus to but seem not to be anywhere near as badly affected as  mom and dad.

As we all try to  get back to living as normal a life as can be its just a reminder of the misery this virus still causes and will continue to cause for the forseeable future.

A timely reminder EJ and best wishes to the family