Corona Virus main thread

[Mark .Y. 351]

14 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

wasn't denying the idea of a bit of a jump, just wish people would stop skimming over the figures and commenting whatever suits their agenda. 18 months in and its the same old faces from both sides of the coin. Kinda why I stepped away from following it all the last month.

I'd love to just lock Matt Le Tissier and Eric Feigl Ding in a room together and throw away the key, both gob****es of the highest order 😆

I don't comment to suit any kind of agenda, it was a simple observation that the cases had jumped.

[ricardo 7,345]

Latest news from Dr Tim.

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

I don't comment to suit any kind of agenda, it was a simple observation that the cases had jumped.

to be fair, it wasn't meant to be aimed at you, sorry!

[sonyc 5,491]

More debate on the origin of Covid:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/covid-19-italy-origins-theory?uID=c4da367448d82ed4a7ecaf4e0eaf4cf74e19b31c8ac97309f3c72f3cb0a7b4b6&utm_campaign=newsletter_daily&utm_source=newsletter&utm_brand=wi&utm_mailing=WI_NEWS_Daily_090921&utm_medium=email&utm_term=wi_news_wired_daily

 

[ricardo 7,345]

National

38,013 - 167

rate of increase 15.3%

England still mostly flat, Scotland high but may have peaked

England (27049) Scotland (6836) Wales (2297) and Northern Ireland (1831).

Local

Norwich infection rate     300.3    up 12.1% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      25,131               88.9% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     87,960                80.4% done                                                     67.7%

 

In Hospital

08-09-2021	8,085
07-09-2021	7,934
06-09-2021	8,003
05-09-2021	7,719
04-09-2021	7,529
03-09-2021	7,646
02-09-2021	7,604

Edited September 9, 2021 by ricardo

[Essjayess 307]

On 08/09/2021 at 09:08, It's Character Forming said:

The simple answer is that we don't have enough information to give definite answers to these questions yet, we are trying to speculate sensibly.

 

Looking at the UK, it's important to separate out Scotland from England.  For England, after 19 July, it seems clear the numbers of new Covid cases were static, then actually dropped for a period, and have been largely static since then.  I've not seen an analysis of the very recent data but they may be starting to creep up now.

For Scotland, it also seems pretty clear they've had a steep rise in new cases since their schools reopened which I think was the start of August.  There are signs now that their new case numbers may be peaking and hopefully they will now start to decline.  Schools reopening plus Scotland not having a great summer seem likely reasons.  If so, my guess is that case numbers in England will follow a similar trajectory, hence I'm very keen to see how cases go in Scotland.

 

My guess is that the drop in England was due to people keeping a fair level of social distancing after restrictions were lifted, plus summer helping by people naturally meeting more outside, and school holidays, all meaning the level of immunity in the population (from vaccines plus having had Covid) was enough to suppress the virus for a period.  I'm guessing it is mainly the fact that people are behaving more normally and also the pretty poor summer weather for most of August that have stopped the decline in case numbers.

 

This was totally unexpected, when we removed restrictions on 19th July, all the expectation among experts was for a sharp rise in cases across the UK which has simply not happened.  We are now all expecting a sharp rise in England now that schools are back etc.  But time will tell whether the expectation is right this time around !

Thx ICF and also YF for replying to my questions. I actually had not checked the governments colour schemed  map  of new infections for quite a few weeks and was taken aback by how most of England was  blue for new infetions but most of Scotland, Wales and NI was red or very dark red..had never seen such a scenario previously. Very interesting how even the  northern and  pretty sparsely populated areas of Scotland are in the red.  As YF indicated each nation has a different set of rules etc or lack of, concerning  Covid and that seems to register in stat anomalies not only in EU but in UK to.

Certainly pretty  darn hard to draw concrete conclusions with Covid when stats  show so  many variations.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

4 hours ago, sonyc said:

More debate on the origin of Covid:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/covid-19-italy-origins-theory?uID=c4da367448d82ed4a7ecaf4e0eaf4cf74e19b31c8ac97309f3c72f3cb0a7b4b6&utm_campaign=newsletter_daily&utm_source=newsletter&utm_brand=wi&utm_mailing=WI_NEWS_Daily_090921&utm_medium=email&utm_term=wi_news_wired_daily

 

Interesting as always @sonyc and Mrs ICF is 100% convinced we both caught Covid on a trip to Italy at the very start of 2020.  Personally I think it's bonkers (although I've not mentioned this to her) because if Covid was really on the loose in Europe in late 2019, with no social distancing, it would have shown up very quickly in hospital and death rates, which didn't happen at all.  I personally have no doubt that it originated in China, but the only serious debate for me is whether it was naturally transmitted or whether it actually did escape from a lab, and I'm not sure we'll ever know for sure.  Also, it is clearly in China's interests to sponsor the various conspiracy theories that point to some other origin for Covid and I think it is very likely they have cyber-teams tasked with encouraging the spread of those sort of ideas.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://mobile.twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1435992088924073984

this graph just shows how game changing the vaccines really are!

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

 

New documents released yesterday adding to the increasing belief that Dr. Fauci did provide funding to the Wuhan Institute of Virology to carry out gain of function research on corona viruses. If this turns out to be true then WIV as a source of the Covid-19 virus becomes less of  conspiracy theory.

[sonyc 5,491]

Felt this was worth sharing (maybe We'll be Back knows more about these developments). So good, shared twice in error as first time link didn't appear 'live'.

Perhaps we might see more multi focussed treatments in the next couple of years? A sign of things to come.

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2021 by sonyc

[Matt Morriss 69]

Can someone explain to me why its a 'Vaccine Passport' and not a 'Covid Passport'?

Surely the aim is to restrict people from gathering who may have Covid, to reduce the spread.

Being fully vaccinated does not eradicate your chances of getting Covid or spreading it, it only reduces the %, apparently.

And on the contrary, prior immunity from previously having Covid seems to suggest that your immunity status is far greater than that of a fully vaccinated person, studies have shown.

So myself, having previously had Covid, pose far less a risk to my fellow man in a nightclub or at the football compared to the guy next to him who has never had Covid, but is fully vaccinated. Studies have shown this and people with far greater qualifications than me have spoken about the world over. 

Given the recent developments in France, Israel and now with Scotland introducing vaccine passports to enter nightclubs, the football and large gatherings, it is obviously only a matter time before this comes to Carrow Road.

There has been no mention of negative tests or prior immunity in the vaccine passport talk, and in fact I seem to remember Boris slipping in at the end of his speech before the parliament 'summer holidays' that he will "serve notice now that vaccine passports will be required by the end of September" adding to it before he scurried off that negative tests will no longer be valid.

So this all points towards no vaccine passport showing your fully vaxxed, no entry to matches at Carrow Road. 

Given the coercion, fear mongering and media and advertising campaign to get the jab into every human on earth and the desperation surrounding it, for me it is hard not to conclude that there is more to play here than it simply being another flu jab.

I am and have been from day one, firmly of the opinion that the pandemic and covid vaccine worldwide rollout is completely deliberate, with the agenda of depopulation being the root cause. When billionaires and the elite discuss the world population of 7.8billion people being way to high and that something needs to be done urgently, and im talking about people such as Bill Gates, the Rothschild's, Prince Charles and our very own Boris, this should be something you take notice of and to suggest it is a red flag I would say is a massive understatement.

For those scratching their head at this point, here is one article on Demography from the good old Rothschild family. Ive also attached my favorite 'a picture speaks a thousand words' photo of wee bonny Charlie and Evelyn De Rothschild, at the bottom.

https://rwu.pressbooks.pub/rothschildsintrotosociology/chapter/demography-and-population/

I now firmly believe that anyone who does not hold this view is either grossly misinformed, incapable of critical thought, unwilling to research, or unable to, or simply deluded to the point that they cannot think for themselves and are happy to be spoon fed information and instruction from their Governemnt and media. 

To wrap up todays rant, I would sincerely appreciate anybody's reply to my views that could convince me otherwise, because at this stage I am really fearing that I will not be able to see my beloved Canaries this season due to my own medical and personal reasons for declining said Covid vaccines.

I'll leave you with this nugget and one of many reasons why I will not ever be getting the Covid 19 vaccine, or any other experimental vaccine (and yes it is experimental as it was rolled out under EUA regulations and has not gone thru the typical vaccine safety measures, ie. years of safety testing, on humans at a grand scale) aside from living my life wholly independent of relying on the pharmaceutical industry to keep me 'healthy'. 

I do not believe for one second that Boris, our Govt and Govt's the world over, and the pharmaceutical companies give a single $ hit whether little old me lives or dies. Nor do I believe the people involved in this pandemic, the bilionaires, the Govt stooges, the pharma CEO's, give a single $ hit about my life and whether I live or die. It is for this reason that I believe that the Covid vaccine program has an intention entirely removed from saving granny and little old me from dying. 

[Matt Morriss 69]

46 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Felt this was worth sharing (maybe We'll be Back knows more about these developments). So good, shared twice in error as first time link didn't appear 'live'.

Perhaps we might see more multi focussed treatments in the next couple of years? A sign of things to come.

 

 

 

Is this the same Moderna that, up til now, had never had a vaccine authorised for use on the general population after years of trying, and only when Emergency Use Authorisation was granted to Pfizer, Astra and Moderna etc. did they finally manage to get a vaccine out and injected into people?

[Herman 9,713]

Remember to have hand gel and a mask when you go to a petrol station. I was the single one this morning so God knows what is being spread around. 

[Matt Morriss 69]

5 minutes ago, Herman said:

Remember to have hand gel and a mask when you go to a petrol station. I was the single one this morning so God knows what is being spread around. 

I cant decipher the sentiment behind this post. Is it sarcasm or genuine comment?

[Herman 9,713]

A little bit bit of A, a little bit of B. 

Do your bit still because it's obvious that a lot of people think it is over. (Or didn't happen.) 😉

[ricardo 7,345]

42 minutes ago, Herman said:

A little bit bit of A, a little bit of B. 

Do your bit still because it's obvious that a lot of people think it is over. (Or didn't happen.) 😉

Quite right and never leave the house without your tin foil hat. I even wear mine in bed, better safe than sorry😷😉

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Quite right and never leave the house without your tin foil hat. I even wear mine in bed, better safe than sorry😷😉

Doesn't matter. The chip that they injected into us is doing far more damage. Its selective you know. If you boo at Carrow Road it can kill you instantly. And it can make you choose Oxford rather than Cambridge in the Boat Race, its that powerful.

[Mr Apples 1,317]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Quite right and never leave the house

Is that your house built of dried pasta, canned goods and bog rolls? 😉 🤣

Apples

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 minute ago, Mr Apples said:

Is that your house built of dried pasta, canned goods and bog rolls? 😉 🤣

Apples

It was two bedroom before but it rained and nows it 4 bedroom.

[sonyc 5,491]

17 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Quite right and never leave the house without your tin foil hat. I even wear mine in bed, better safe than sorry😷😉

I reckon your time-honoured tactic of hiding behind the sofa might still do the trick R 😅

[ricardo 7,345]

I've moved the sofa into the fallout shelter. Stocked out better than Sainsbury's at the moment.👍

 

[Indy 3,283]

I’m not sure about any chip in my vaccine, but one side effect I’ve noticed is I now have a massive sausage! It grew over night! Thinking of getting a vaccine booster in case it deteriorated with time!

[ricardo 7,345]

National

37,622 - 147

rate of increase 11.5%

England still mostly flat ( actually 5k down on the week ), Scotland high nearly 7k again today, also up in Wales and N.I.

Cases today vs same day last week:(date reported)

England: 31,726 -> 26,653 (-16.0%)
Scotland: 6,711 -> 6,815 (+1.5%)
NI: 1,248 -> 1,687 (+35.2%)
Wales: 2,391 -> 2,467 (+3.2%)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     315.8    up 2.4% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      25,744               89% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     96,702                80.6% done                                                     68%

 

In Hospital

08-09-2021	8,098
07-09-2021	7,940
06-09-2021	8,009
05-09-2021	7,723
04-09-2021	7,531
03-09-2021	7,648
02-09-2021	7,604
01-09-2021	7,661

Edited September 10, 2021 by ricardo

[FenwayFrank 2,456]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

I’m not sure about any chip in my vaccine, but one side effect I’ve noticed is I now have a massive sausage! It grew over night! Thinking of getting a vaccine booster in case it deteriorated with time!

Pfizer or Astra Zeneca? Asking for a friend 

[sonyc 5,491]

3 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

Pfizer or Astra Zeneca? Asking for a friend 

Surely it has to be Johnson (& Johnson)?

Edited September 10, 2021 by sonyc

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

37,622 - 147

rate of increase 11.5%

England still mostly flat ( actually 5k down on the week ), Scotland high nearly 7k again today, also up in Wales and N.I.

Cases today vs same day last week:(date reported)

England: 31,726 -> 26,653 (-16.0%)
Scotland: 6,711 -> 6,815 (+1.5%)
NI: 1,248 -> 1,687 (+35.2%)
Wales: 2,391 -> 2,467 (+3.2%)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     315.8    up 2.4% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      25,744               89% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     96,702                80.6% done                                                     68%

 

In Hospital

08-09-2021	8,098
07-09-2021	7,940
06-09-2021	8,009
05-09-2021	7,723
04-09-2021	7,531
03-09-2021	7,648
02-09-2021	7,604
01-09-2021	7,661

Good to see case numbers in England still actually flat or even in decline. Comment on the Zoe App today that there is no increase in numbers showing there either, despite schools returning this week (some last week).  Personally I think it's far too early to draw any conclusions, but the Zoe App should be the first place that an increase in cases shows up.

 

ONS numbers for Scotland now about 1 in 45 people have Covid.  Whereas the projection when restrictions were relaxed in July was for cases to peak at over 3m active cases for the whole of the UK, which is somewhere around 1 person in 20 I think.  So if cases in Scotland are now at their peak (hopefully) and start to decline, that would be very encouraging (if England follows a similar trajectory).

 

Also it's good to see that despite cases in Scotland having skyrocketed for the last month to way above levels in England, no one on this thread has descended into petty point scoring about the First Minister and saying they're all coming down with the Sturgeons and nonsense like that (most of us are guessing the main cause is them going back to school much earlier, not that their government is useless)..  I'm sure if cases now decline in Scotland and increase to a higher level in England, we'll see similar restraint by posters...

[ricardo 7,345]

40 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Good to see case numbers in England still actually flat or even in decline. Comment on the Zoe App today that there is no increase in numbers showing there either, despite schools returning this week (some last week).  Personally I think it's far too early to draw any conclusions, but the Zoe App should be the first place that an increase in cases shows up.

 

ONS numbers for Scotland now about 1 in 45 people have Covid.  Whereas the projection when restrictions were relaxed in July was for cases to peak at over 3m active cases for the whole of the UK, which is somewhere around 1 person in 20 I think.  So if cases in Scotland are now at their peak (hopefully) and start to decline, that would be very encouraging (if England follows a similar trajectory).

 

Also it's good to see that despite cases in Scotland having skyrocketed for the last month to way above levels in England, no one on this thread has descended into petty point scoring about the First Minister and saying they're all coming down with the Sturgeons and nonsense like that (most of us are guessing the main cause is them going back to school much earlier, not that their government is useless)..  I'm sure if cases now decline in Scotland and increase to a higher level in England, we'll see similar restraint by posters...

Don't count on it😀

[sonyc 5,491]

14 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

  Personally I think it's far too early to draw any conclusions

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=IND~USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA

I think you've summed it up there ICF. I follow World in Data because it's interesting to see the comparisons with other countries. I've no idea why as an early adopter vaccine-wise our rates are so high. Perhaps vaccine immunity is waning (BBC R4 discussing this) or it's our behaviours? Where we live I reckon as low as 10% wear masks in shops and other places for example on some days! Are we in holiday mood and care less? Do we think it's over and we won't get very ill? Are we as a country leading the way in following a herd immunity approach (letting the virus burn through)? Is it to do with government policy? 

We are at c.1000 deaths a week now (50k PA) which is about a usual flu year isn't it? Or a bit less die with flu?

Anyway, I don't know anymore. Nor why rates taking off now in Wales. Or what's happening to variants. Commentary of Twitter from a range of observers is mixed. They give different scenarios from 'all should be fine' to more concerning comment should the wrong things happen. It's a puzzle. Clearly, far from over, clearly very geographic. Clearly vaccines have huge effects. More than that, it's hard to say.

 

Edited September 11, 2021 by sonyc

[ricardo 7,345]

21 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=IND~USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA

I think you've summed it up there ICF. I follow World in Data because it's interesting to see the comparisons with other countries. I've no idea why as an early adopter vaccine-wise our rates are so high. Perhaps vaccine immunity is waning (BBC R4 discussing this) or it's our behaviours? Where we live I reckon as low as 10% wear masks in shops and other places for example on some days! Are we in holiday mood and care less? Do we think it's over and we won't get very ill? Are we as a country leading the way in following a herd immunity approach (letting the virus burn through)? Is it to do with government policy? 

We are at c.1000 deaths a week now (50k PA) which is about a usual flu year isn't it? Or a bit less die with flu?

Anyway, I don't know anymore. Nor why rates taking off now in Wales. Or what's happening to variants. Commentary of Twitter from a range of observers is mixed. They give different scenarios from 'all should be fine' to more concerning comment should the wrong things happen. It's a puzzle. Clearly, far from over, clearly very geographic. Clearly vaccines have huge effects. More than that, it's hard to say.

 

Still plenty of mask wearing in Norwich. Sainsburys yesterday and M&S this morning at about 95%. Its mainly the shop assistants that don't  wear them.

ZOE numbers continue to decline so still no marked schools effect in England.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Still plenty of mask wearing in Norwich. Sainsburys yesterday and M&S this morning at about 95%. Its mainly the shop assistants that don't  wear them.

ZOE numbers continue to decline so still no marked schools effect in England.

Schools have only been back a week. Give it time. Remember it takes a week or more to be detectable following infection (hence the old 10 day quarantines) plus the infection has a quasi exponential growth so can bumble along for a while unnoticed 'under the radar'  before apparently exploding out of the already high 'noise' floor.

Far too soon to draw any meaningful conclusions either way.