Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

ZOE drops sharply for second day running.

Tim will be adding a few more weights to the dice before long 

[ricardo 7,328]

National

37,011 - 68

rate of increase 3.6%

Some areas up some down, overall still fairly static

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     296.1    up 1.7% on the week

(24 patients in N&N   down from 25               ( updated to 31st Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      39,752                88.8% done                 Norwich numbers   76.5%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     127,156             79.8% done                                                     67%

In Hospital

02-09-2021	7,541
01-09-2021	7,611
31-08-2021	7,629
30-08-2021	7,292
29-08-2021	7,064
28-08-2021	6,936
27-08-2021	7,045

 

 

Edited September 5, 2021 by ricardo

[Well b back 3,180]

On 02/09/2021 at 08:13, Van wink said:

Absolutely, there has been lots of waffle about this from the Government but no action, a wasted opportunity.

They should just follow us on here VW I think.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58452953

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 hours ago, Well b back said:

They should just follow us on here VW I think.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58452953

One asks why? What are they worried about?

[ricardo 7,328]

National

41,192 - 45

rate of increase 12.2%

Some areas up some down, slightly rising

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     295.4    up 13.8% on the week

(24 patients in N&N   down from 25               ( updated to 31st Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      21,795                88.8% done                 Norwich numbers   76.5%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     73,193             79.9% done                                                     67.2%

In Hospital

03-09-2021	7,606
02-09-2021	7,581
01-09-2021	7,644
31-08-2021	7,647
30-08-2021	7,306
29-08-2021	7,077
28-08-2021	6,948

[Mark .Y. 351]

Feels like it is taking off again to me  😞

 

[ricardo 7,328]

13 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Feels like it is taking off again to me  😞

 

Expect cases to rise due to schools returning but its hospital numbers that really matter.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Anyone know if cases have peaked in Scotland yet?

[Mark .Y. 351]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Expect cases to rise due to schools returning but its hospital numbers that really matter.

Yes, I do understand and agree with that R, but I tend to look at the equivalent day from the previous week and that is approx 26,000 to 41,000 - a huge jump. Last weekend was a BH so probably has some effect but the schools have literally only just gone back so not sure how much effect that could be having already.

[ricardo 7,328]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Anyone know if cases have peaked in Scotland yet?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

4 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Yes, I do understand and agree with that R, but I tend to look at the equivalent day from the previous week and that is approx 26,000 to 41,000 - a huge jump. Last weekend was a BH so probably has some effect but the schools have literally only just gone back so not sure how much effect that could be having already.

Wales reported zero last week (when that 26k was reported) and 5k today (when 41k was reported) so I wouldn't give that jump much credence. Best to just go to the official data for a clear picture. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

We'll probably get a bit of a bump from schools and Unis so I guess it'll be time to get them booster doses sorted out soon...

edit: the attached chart ( https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-2nd-september-2021/) is interesting in suggesting 3 quarters of 15 to 24 year olds have already caught covid already... perhaps means we won't see it rampant through uni populations like we did past year that helped fuel the winter wave?

Edited September 6, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[kirku 1,332]

15 hours ago, ricardo said:

Expect cases to rise due to schools returning but its hospital numbers that really matter.

Debilitating long covid cases are also something to be concerned with 

[The Real Buh 3,423]

2 hours ago, kirku said:

Debilitating long covid cases are also something to be concerned with 

Is long covid real or psychosomatic or both?

[ricardo 7,328]

National

37,489 - 209

rate of increase 13.9%

Some areas up some down, slightly rising

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     294    up 16.8% on the week

(24 patients in N&N   down from 25               ( updated to 31st Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      22,689                88.9% done                 Norwich numbers   76.5%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     80,015                80.1% done                                                     67.3%

In Hospital ( rising again)

06-09-2021	7,976
05-09-2021	7,697
04-09-2021	7,515
03-09-2021	7,637
02-09-2021	7,594
01-09-2021	7,656
31-08-2021	7,656

[Mark .Y. 351]

18 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Wales reported zero last week (when that 26k was reported) and 5k today (when 41k was reported) so I wouldn't give that jump much credence. Best to just go to the official data for a clear picture. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

We'll probably get a bit of a bump from schools and Unis so I guess it'll be time to get them booster doses sorted out soon...

edit: the attached chart ( https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-2nd-september-2021/) is interesting in suggesting 3 quarters of 15 to 24 year olds have already caught covid already... perhaps means we won't see it rampant through uni populations like we did past year that helped fuel the winter wave?

I did notice the Wales figures TJ but still seemed like a huge jump to me.

[Herman 9,698]

3 hours ago, The Real Buh said:

Is long covid real or psychosomatic or both?

It is a real problem but I fear that there will be a small percentage of people that will use it to their advantage. 

[ricardo 7,328]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

It is a real problem but I fear that there will be a small percentage of people that will use it to their advantage. 

Surely not😉

[The Real Buh 3,423]

15 minutes ago, Herman said:

It is a real problem but I fear that there will be a small percentage of people that will use it to their advantage. 

Not enough research on it yet but it’s not beyond the realms of imagination that a massive nationwide, worldwide even, monumental scare campaign that this is the deadliest virus ever, stay indoors, don’t see your grandchildren, you could have it and not know it etc. All that and then you get it? It’s not beyond the realms is it that there’s a psychological effect going on. The placebo effect is very strong

[Essjayess 307]

Trying to understand why in the UK, deaths, new infections and hospital admissions have all been slowly rising without let up since about 3rd week in July, while in most of the EU rates are much lower and pretty steady.

Is this because the UK has far less restrictions about Covid now than the EU?

Or maybe is it to do with efficacy? The EU in the last 2 or 3 months has  vaxxed a lot of their population, virtually catching up to us in  the UK in many instances, while here at home newly vaxxed persons have been much lower due to our early big take up earlier in the year. Maybe the efficacy is slowly waning here while on the continent, as vaxxed  numbers are more recently high there the efficacy is better right now?

I really would like to know the whys of these trends.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

39 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Trying to understand why in the UK, deaths, new infections and hospital admissions have all been slowly rising without let up since about 3rd week in July, while in most of the EU rates are much lower and pretty steady.

Is this because the UK has far less restrictions about Covid now than the EU?

Or maybe is it to do with efficacy? The EU in the last 2 or 3 months has  vaxxed a lot of their population, virtually catching up to us in  the UK in many instances, while here at home newly vaxxed persons have been much lower due to our early big take up earlier in the year. Maybe the efficacy is slowly waning here while on the continent, as vaxxed  numbers are more recently high there the efficacy is better right now?

I really would like to know the whys of these trends.

Hi Ess. The efficacy argument you make might hold water if it was the early vaccine adopters that were getting sick in significant numbers. It isn't - it's the younger, more recent cohorts.

The main reason is almost certainly better social distancing / restrictions in some parts of the EU (and yes we have fallen behind some EU countries as to vaccinations as well). Obviously this is a broad brush approach as per your original comment as all EU countries have different policies as do we with our current let it rip approach (Pss. don't tell the Brexiteers). It's ripping.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

11 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Trying to understand why in the UK, deaths, new infections and hospital admissions have all been slowly rising without let up since about 3rd week in July, while in most of the EU rates are much lower and pretty steady.

Is this because the UK has far less restrictions about Covid now than the EU?

Or maybe is it to do with efficacy? The EU in the last 2 or 3 months has  vaxxed a lot of their population, virtually catching up to us in  the UK in many instances, while here at home newly vaxxed persons have been much lower due to our early big take up earlier in the year. Maybe the efficacy is slowly waning here while on the continent, as vaxxed  numbers are more recently high there the efficacy is better right now?

I really would like to know the whys of these trends.

The simple answer is that we don't have enough information to give definite answers to these questions yet, we are trying to speculate sensibly.

 

Looking at the UK, it's important to separate out Scotland from England.  For England, after 19 July, it seems clear the numbers of new Covid cases were static, then actually dropped for a period, and have been largely static since then.  I've not seen an analysis of the very recent data but they may be starting to creep up now.

For Scotland, it also seems pretty clear they've had a steep rise in new cases since their schools reopened which I think was the start of August.  There are signs now that their new case numbers may be peaking and hopefully they will now start to decline.  Schools reopening plus Scotland not having a great summer seem likely reasons.  If so, my guess is that case numbers in England will follow a similar trajectory, hence I'm very keen to see how cases go in Scotland.

 

My guess is that the drop in England was due to people keeping a fair level of social distancing after restrictions were lifted, plus summer helping by people naturally meeting more outside, and school holidays, all meaning the level of immunity in the population (from vaccines plus having had Covid) was enough to suppress the virus for a period.  I'm guessing it is mainly the fact that people are behaving more normally and also the pretty poor summer weather for most of August that have stopped the decline in case numbers.

 

This was totally unexpected, when we removed restrictions on 19th July, all the expectation among experts was for a sharp rise in cases across the UK which has simply not happened.  We are now all expecting a sharp rise in England now that schools are back etc.  But time will tell whether the expectation is right this time around !

Edited September 8, 2021 by It's Character Forming
typo

[Mark .Y. 351]

13 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Hi Ess. The efficacy argument you make might hold water if it was the early vaccine adopters that were getting sick in significant numbers. It isn't - it's the younger, more recent cohorts.

The main reason is almost certainly better social distancing / restrictions in some parts of the EU (and yes we have fallen behind some EU countries as to vaccinations as well). Obviously this is a broad brush approach as per your original comment as all EU countries have different policies as do we with our current let it rip approach (Pss. don't tell the Brexiteers). It's ripping.

I arrived in Murcia, Spain about 2 hours ago - and boody hot it is too 🙂

Anyway, the point is, masks must still be worn in all shops and restaurants/cafes when moving about.

According to my friend out here, it is being pretty strictly enforced.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

A complete change of approach by Australia reported here :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-58406526

Simple common sense IMO and nothing that will be a surprise to any readers of this thread, and they will still probably get through the pandemic with a relatively low death toll (largely due to Australia being a long way away from the rest of the world IMO).

 

The only surprise really is that it has taken them until now to make this call.

 

[ricardo 7,328]

National

38,975 - 191

rate of increase 15.3%

Some areas up some down, slightly rising

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     305    up 7.9% on the week

(24 patients in N&N   down from 25               ( updated to 31st Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      26,624                88.9% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     85,848                80.3% done                                                     67.5%

In Hospital

07-09-2021	7,907
06-09-2021	7,992
05-09-2021	7,711
04-09-2021	7,523
03-09-2021	7,642
02-09-2021	7,601
01-09-2021	7,660
31-08-2021	7,659

[ricardo 7,328]

England mostly stable apart from school age testing on the rise.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

England mostly stable apart from school age testing on the rise.

Thanks @ricardo/ I bet you can guess what I'm going to ask next....

[ricardo 7,328]

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

On 07/09/2021 at 13:03, The Real Buh said:

Is long covid real or psychosomatic or both?

both, which is why it's important we get some proper research done on it and quit generalising it as 1 thing. Clearly someone with scarred lungs is a whole lot different to someone who still feels a bit fatigued after a few weeks so it's important to see just how severe the problem is we need to solve/deal with rather than just sensationalising or belittling it.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

8 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I arrived in Murcia, Spain about 2 hours ago - and boody hot it is too 🙂

Anyway, the point is, masks must still be worn in all shops and restaurants/cafes when moving about.

According to my friend out here, it is being pretty strictly enforced.

was the same in Madiera though I didn't really notice the strict enforcement as everyone just did it. That was basically the only restriction they had though. I think their al fresco lifestyle massively helps as well, I was barely ever indoors other than when I went to bed.

I suspect the fact they only had 2 months of strict lockdown right at the start means their population is a bit less fatigued by having to have their lives interfered with so they tolerate and buy into the mask wearing a bit more.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

On 07/09/2021 at 16:21, Mark .Y. said:

I did notice the Wales figures TJ but still seemed like a huge jump to me.

wasn't denying the idea of a bit of a jump, just wish people would stop skimming over the figures and commenting whatever suits their agenda. 18 months in and its the same old faces from both sides of the coin. Kinda why I stepped away from following it all the last month.

I'd love to just lock Matt Le Tissier and Eric Feigl Ding in a room together and throw away the key, both gob****es of the highest order 😆