Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,199]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Not sure where those figures come from but from world data which is 100% accurate % of population, Germany and the U.K. are way behind some EU countries and others such as Iceland involved in the EU programme. Fully vaccinated as % of population Germany 60.7% U.K. 64.2% France 68.3% Spain 71.8% Belgium 71% Portugal 73.1% Denmark 72.5% Ireland 70.3% Malta 83.6% Iceland 73.9%.

We are currently doing 160 - 180,000 doses a day, whereas France are going along at 4 - 500,000 doses a day. The main reason is everywhere else already vaccinates 12 - 18 and we can only begin to catch up once we follow suit. The reason the overall stats for eu are only 59.6 is most of the old communist countries are not really bothering. 
The EU will be producing 2 billion doses this year so will have no supply issues. This is mainly Pfizer which now seems the U.K. choice as we have purchased 93 million doses from Pfizer.

This is not meant to say one is better than the other as some of Europe is better some worse than the U.K. I am just querying the figures quoted.

Here however is a fact those that use vaccine passports, the likes of Ireland, France and Spain, have a much higher uptake of the vaccine. Those such as America where Republicans are told not to have a vaccine, have low uptakes as does Israel due to religious objections.

[Essjayess 307]

7 hours ago, sonyc said:

Another interesting graph. Shows where the problems might develop in the world. 

 

 

 

Indonesia  has now passed UK's Covid death total, the 7th nation to have higher deaths than UK.   Asia has and is taking a battering from the Delta variant this last 2 or 3 months after mostly escaping the worst of the original and earlier variants for over a year...basically Covid...especially the Delta variant..is now a more pandeminc problem than ever, assaulting  newer regions of the globe that previously got away more lightly. Africa still has been relatively only moderately affected in many nations but of course it feels inevitable that they to will suffer a  worse fate  in time than at present.

[Van wink 2,994]

10 hours ago, Well b back said:

Here however is a fact those that use vaccine passports, the likes of Ireland, France and Spain, have a much higher uptake of the vaccine. Those such as America where Republicans are told not to have a vaccine, have low uptakes as does Israel due to religious objections.

Absolutely, there has been lots of waffle about this from the Government but no action, a wasted opportunity.

[Barbe bleu 822]

13 hours ago, sonyc said:

 

Whatever we all think of Sturgeon or Drakeford, we appear to have heard more from them than our own government on Covid. Whatever colour is in power, especially during a pandemic, you just want them to govern. The country needs to be guided what to do in this health crisis (in my opinion) but we have a government that is very laissez faire. 

I'm inclined to agree that Wales and Scotland have had stronger, more coherent leadership than England.

But leadership alone is not enough, you need the right policy to lead on.  Strong leadership often wins battles, but it is also what gets the Kool Aid drunk.

I think we could do with /could have done with a bit more of a push on vaccines but laissez faire might (might not)  be the right way to go at the moment. Perhaps allowing this virus to spread a bit during summer, before the flu rush is the correct thing to do?   Perhaps letting it spread whilst people still have antibodies in the blood system ( as opposed to to the response consigned to memory) is the right thing to do?  Perhaps we should let it spread to update our collective immune memory before the jabs become too detached from what is in circulation?

I'm  not saying spread is necessarily positive,  but we do need to be sure that leadership is directed at the right thing and not leadership for the purposes of looking strong.

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm inclined to agree that Wales and Scotland have had stronger, more coherent leadership than England.

But leadership alone is not enough, you need the right policy to lead on.  Strong leadership often wins battles, but it is also what gets the Kool Aid drunk.

I think we could do with /could have done with a bit more of a push on vaccines but laissez faire might (might not)  be the right way to go at the moment. Perhaps allowing this virus to spread a bit during summer, before the flu rush is the correct thing to do?   Perhaps letting it spread whilst people still have antibodies in the blood system ( as opposed to to the response consigned to memory) is the right thing to do?  Perhaps we should let it spread to update our collective immune memory before the jabs become too detached from what is in circulation?

I'm  not saying spread is necessarily positive,  but we do need to be sure that leadership is directed at the right thing and not leadership for the purposes of looking strong.

 

 

My problem is that the government never sticks to any cohesive strategy when the going gets tough. It follows the herd never leads it. Last Spring the various 'relaxation dates' where premised and widely espoused on the basis of a decreasing prevalence / hospitalization rates. If it is decreasing open up a little - check (5 weeks) later and if still under control OK to proceed to next step. Data/Science led. However when those go/nogo  'gates'  couldn't be met the goal posts where simply moved, and moved again and again. The last funny idea to defend the indefensible was that we'll get Covid this summer now past and somehow that will stop an explosion this autumn from overwhelming the NHS. 

What I (and many many others) now suspect is that they've actually achieved is to well and truly seed Covid at high prevalence despite the outdoor summer with schools out to almost perfectly initiate and trigger a rapid rise in Covid this autumn with all inevitable NHS issues (and then panicked heavy restrictions) to follow.

I note that this time last year hospitalizations where about 100/day as opposed to 1000/day today and we know what followed.

I simply call out this government's Covid response as an inept shambles (the NHS has done fabulous job on Vaccines)

Edited September 2, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[sonyc 5,510]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm inclined to agree that Wales and Scotland have had stronger, more coherent leadership than England.

But leadership alone is not enough, you need the right policy to lead on.  Strong leadership often wins battles, but it is also what gets the Kool Aid drunk.

I think we could do with /could have done with a bit more of a push on vaccines but laissez faire might (might not)  be the right way to go at the moment. Perhaps allowing this virus to spread a bit during summer, before the flu rush is the correct thing to do?   Perhaps letting it spread whilst people still have antibodies in the blood system ( as opposed to to the response consigned to memory) is the right thing to do?  Perhaps we should let it spread to update our collective immune memory before the jabs become too detached from what is in circulation?

I'm  not saying spread is necessarily positive,  but we do need to be sure that leadership is directed at the right thing and not leadership for the purposes of looking strong.

 

 

I do think those are very fair points. I've read a bit about the problem of letting vaccines do all the heavy lifting alone and reducing natural immunity. Likewise it appears having had Covid and being doubly vaccinated provides the best 'barrier'.

Leadership won't stop the virus but it will guide behaviours. Though, if I interpret your point correctly you're suggesting (not stating) that simply allowing the virus to spread may well be the best course. Especially letting younger people catch it. In which case an honest, trustworthy government would explain that tactic and why. I haven't heard that this is the policy, i.e. in such a direct way.

To know this is the aim develops trust. To ask people to be careful but carry on and live their lives (whilst all restrictions are gone) feels a bit like passing the buck. If this was the aim too I thought it WAS meant to be based on 4 principles with infection rates and hospitalisation rates being two of them. The latter is showing a worrying trend. Of course the NHS isn't yet overwhelmed. If there was a really good strategy BB where is the extra resource the NHS needs to firm up and plan it's defences for winter?

The only thing I've heard from Sajid Javed is that he was delighted to be opening a new hospital. He wasn't, it was a new unit in an existing one. Where is this fella? So, my overall conclusion of this whole management is that it is sorely lacking. Imagine any of us being so negligent in our workplaces and at a time of crisis! And these are people voted in to run a country. Why do Scotland and Wales (and now France etc) lead in public health initiatives?

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

I do think those are very fair points. I've read a bit about the problem of letting vaccines do all the heavy lifting alone and reducing natural immunity. Likewise it appears having had Covid and being doubly vaccinated provides the best 'barrier'.

Leadership won't stop the virus but it will guide behaviours. Though, if I interpret your point correctly you're suggesting (not stating) that simply allowing the virus to spread may well be the best course. Especially letting younger people catch it. In which case an honest, trustworthy government would explain that tactic and why. I haven't heard that this is the policy, i.e. in such a direct way.

To know this is the aim develops trust. To ask people to be careful but carry on and live their lives (whilst all restrictions are gone) feels a bit like passing the buck. If this was the aim too I thought it WAS meant to be based on 4 principles with infection rates and hospitalisation rates being two of them. The latter is showing a worrying trend. Of course the NHS isn't yet overwhelmed. If there was a really good strategy BB where is the extra resource the NHS needs to firm up and plan it's defences for winter?

The only thing I've heard from Sajid Javed is that he was delighted to be opening a new hospital. He wasn't, it was a new unit in an existing one. Where is this fella? So, my overall conclusion of this whole management is that it is sorely lacking. Imagine any of us being so negligent in our workplaces and at a time of crisis! And these are people voted in to run a country. Why do Scotland and Wales (and now France etc) lead in public health initiatives?

Yes Sonyc. As per an earlier comment I can accept and understand that mistakes were made  - we are (and the government) only human. What I can't accept is the buck passing and endless excuses / prevarications. Tell it as it is warts and all.

As an aside I used to work for a large Japanese company - when the **** hit the fan the senior managers responsible would stand up in-front of everybody (including the cleaners) and accept the blame (even if it wasn't their direct fault but a more junior person in their reporting chain). The issue would be addressed without angst and without excuses. A solution would be found.

The end result was a company where everybody respected the managers - they would very publicly take the blame for 'your ' failings and hence you understood why they might be on your case early! Problems were quickly and honestly identified and resolved. They got to be senior managers on merit and wisdom. Doesn't seem at all true of this Government.

[sonyc 5,510]

51 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes Sonyc. As per an earlier comment I can accept and understand that mistakes were made  - we are (and the government) only human. What I can't accept is the buck passing and endless excuses / prevarications. Tell it as it is warts and all.

As an aside I used to work for a large Japanese company - when the **** hit the fan the senior managers responsible would stand up in-front of everybody (including the cleaners) and accept the blame (even if it wasn't their direct fault but a more junior person in their reporting chain). The issue would be addressed without angst and without excuses. A solution would be found.

The end result was a company where everybody respected the managers - they would very publicly take the blame for 'your ' failings and hence you understood why they might be on your case early! Problems were quickly and honestly identified and resolved. They got to be senior managers on merit and wisdom. Doesn't seem at all true of this Government.

Indeed. The Japanese example you've given is apt. That approach probably derived from 'systems thinking' pioneered in Japan (where you worked on the whole process and found solutions to problems each time - managers simply were there to 'act on the system' rather than to be there in a command and control capacity). I read that ministers like Sajid and Raab are ministers who want data, data, data all the time. No bad thing but you then have to do something with it. You need to lead, set out a direction. Now, I'm sure the folk in our government know all this. Also, it's always easy to be critical from afar, typing opinions onto social media platforms. We know very little - of course we don't. Yet, what we do get to see and hear are cabinet ministers' answers from scrutiny committees (the REAL challenge within governments). In these situations you find out what people are made of. You would expect some depth to be displayed, and even to be feel challenged yourself because their answers illuminate areas of knowledge you were unaware of.

Yet...there is so often such a lack of depth. It has surprised me greatly to hear shallow responses on a whole range of subject areas. Maybe some are new to their portfolios and have a mountain to climb in obtaining knowledge of their areas? In education, in health, on Brexit  (could name more) for me they have been found out. Even their own party members are critical (angry even). You read it's politics based on short term public opinion (through polls, focus groups)...i.e. what is popular.

Anyway, time to put away my moaning and posturing and disappear. It isn't going to change and nor is complaining about it going to do any good. Just have to accept public health and this pandemic is what it is. I'm quite sure there will be a time ahead when the responses of this government will be reviewed and picked over. It's incredible that this particular government has such support but they do! Maybe for now it does and times will change (a moment of political karma perhaps). It would be refreshing to hear ministers admit weaknesses and mistakes but that won't happen - secondly, it probably applies to most politicians and not just this administration. Few are especially trustworthy, most simply want to bask in power. History repeats doesn't it.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Indeed. The Japanese example you've given is apt. That approach probably derived from 'systems thinking' pioneered in Japan (where you worked on the whole process and found solutions to problems each time - managers simply were there to 'act on the system' rather than to be there in a command and control capacity). I read that ministers like Sajid and Raab are ministers who want data, data, data all the time. No bad thing but you then have to do something with it. You need to lead, set out a direction. Now, I'm sure the folk in our government know all this. Also, it's always easy to be critical from afar, typing opinions onto social media platforms. We know very little - of course we don't. Yet, what we do get to see and hear are cabinet ministers' answers from scrutiny committees (the REAL challenge within governments). In these situations you find out what people are made of. You would expect some depth to be displayed, and even to be feel challenged yourself because their answers illuminate areas of knowledge you were unaware of.

Yet...there is so often such a lack of depth. It has surprised me greatly to hear shallow responses on a whole range of subject areas. Maybe some are new to their portfolios and have a mountain to climb in obtaining knowledge of their areas? In education, in health, on Brexit  (could name more) for me they have been found out. Even their own party members are critical (angry even). You read it's politics based on short term public opinion (through polls, focus groups)...i.e. what is popular.

Anyway, time to put away my moaning and posturing and disappear. It isn't going to change and nor is complaining about it going to do any good. Just have to accept public health and this pandemic is what it is. I'm quite sure there will be a time ahead when the responses of this government will be reviewed and picked over. It's incredible that this particular government has such support but they do! Maybe for now it does and times will change (a moment of political karma perhaps). It would be refreshing to hear ministers admit weaknesses and mistakes but that won't happen - secondly, it probably applies to most politicians and not just this administration. Few are especially trustworthy, most simply want to bask in power. History repeats doesn't it.

 

One last Japanese story SonyC. I recall once being very junior (in my 20s - I guess 80s.) and having an issue with something with an important customer presentation next day outside Tokyo, until 4am in the morning. Because I was there EVERY manager above me including an executive Director was also there with me in the office (making coffee!) - We all went out at 5am, had breakfast and got the PO later same day! I was then one of the gang (and still am)! Just can't see that happening in a UK PLC. Raab cant even get back from holiday.

[ricardo 7,382]

National

38,154 - 178

rate of decrease 1%

Some areas up some down, overall still fairly static

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     283.4    down 16.1% on the week

(24 patients in N&N   down from 25               ( updated to 31st Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      44,088                88.6% done                 Norwich numbers   76.9%

2nd Dose     113,385             79.2% done                                                     67%

 

In Hospital

01-09-2021	7,596
31-08-2021	7,620
30-08-2021	7,285
29-08-2021	7,059
28-08-2021	6,932
27-08-2021	7,041
26-08-2021	6,996

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

Zoe Latest today (57322) - and Spector comment since some like it. 

Flashing 'red'

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-still-rising-after-restriction-free-summer

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, comments on the latest data:

“The UK has enjoyed a restriction-free summer unlike most of Europe and even though a large majority of UK adults are now vaccinated, the rise in cases, as well as hospitalisations and deaths  is one of the highest in europe. This is evidence that without at least some restrictions COVID will continue to spread. Fully vaccinated people are getting COVID, but not only are they often unable to spot the signs of infection due to the government’s outdated list of symptoms, we’ve seen evidence that the protection provided by vaccines is wearing off. To help stop the spread, it’s still important for more of us to act responsibly by wearing masks in public, particularly in crowded places, washing our hands regularly, and trying to distance ourselves from others where possible.

The sharp increase in cases in Scotland following their return to school in August is a real concern, especially as children in England and Wales are now heading back. It’s likely that England and Wales will follow suit, helped by superspreader festival events, making it ever more likely that the summer wave will continue into the autumn. The question is - how high do numbers of cases and hospitalisations have to get before we recognise that COVID-19 remains a real threat?”

[ricardo 7,382]

National

42076 - 121

rate of increase 0.4%

Some areas up some down, overall still fairly static

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     277.8    down 10.8% on the week

(24 patients in N&N   down from 25               ( updated to 31st Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      40,002                88.6% done                 Norwich numbers   76.4%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     119,375             79.4% done                                                     66%

In Hospital

02-09-2021	7,541
01-09-2021	7,611
31-08-2021	7,629
30-08-2021	7,292
29-08-2021	7,064
28-08-2021	6,936
27-08-2021	7,045

[Van wink 2,994]

22 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Zoe Latest today (57322) - and Spector comment since some like it. 

Flashing 'red'

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-still-rising-after-restriction-free-summer

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, comments on the latest data:

“The UK has enjoyed a restriction-free summer unlike most of Europe and even though a large majority of UK adults are now vaccinated, the rise in cases, as well as hospitalisations and deaths  is one of the highest in europe. This is evidence that without at least some restrictions COVID will continue to spread. Fully vaccinated people are getting COVID, but not only are they often unable to spot the signs of infection due to the government’s outdated list of symptoms, we’ve seen evidence that the protection provided by vaccines is wearing off. To help stop the spread, it’s still important for more of us to act responsibly by wearing masks in public, particularly in crowded places, washing our hands regularly, and trying to distance ourselves from others where possible.

The sharp increase in cases in Scotland following their return to school in August is a real concern, especially as children in England and Wales are now heading back. It’s likely that England and Wales will follow suit, helped by superspreader festival events, making it ever more likely that the summer wave will continue into the autumn. The question is - how high do numbers of cases and hospitalisations have to get before we recognise that COVID-19 remains a real threat?”

A key point made by Spectre was his concern about long Covid, especially amongst the young, and the long term implications of that for the NHS and the economy. He very much shares our view that the rate of infection is way to high to be moving into the Autumn with any degree of confidence

[Surfer 1,547]

I wonder if the Ms Patel will comment about this lawlessness... ??? 

[Well b back 3,199]

JCVI now not recommending 12 - 15’s to be vaccinated. The basis is the very rare heart inflammation. 
Schools are alledgedly being told that the ventilation systems are not available and all windows will now need to be left open, suggest you parents buy some thick woolly jumpers, warm coats and pack them some hot soup in a flask. 

[Well b back 3,199]

2 minutes ago, Surfer said:

I wonder if the Ms Patel will comment about this lawlessness... ??? 

We get abuse and attacked most days on the vans based in the city centre.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Well b back

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

A key point made by Spectre was his concern about long Covid, especially amongst the young, and the long term implications of that for the NHS and the economy. He very much shares our view that the rate of infection is way to high to be moving into the Autumn with any degree of confidence

Spectre - was that an 007 Freudian slip. I know that's  how some see him with white cat. 😉

 

[Well b back 3,199]

On 31/08/2021 at 21:18, Van wink said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-france-covid-immunity-passport-vaccine-pass/

 

Wish we had done something like this, been lots of talk but not much action in the UK

I have studied this over the last couple of weeks and I must say those that have introduced passports are getting a much better % of vaccine uptake. If we use the examples of U.K. and Germany against Ireland and France it becomes fascinating. U.K. and Germany seem to be against introducing restrictions, consequently their new vaccinations are dropping like stones. The U.K. were considered the most likely to take vaccines throughout the world, the French as many pointed out were amongst the most sceptical in the world, they also don’t like being told what to do. In Ireland you maybe aware the restrictions also effect movement. Not only do you need a passport for lots of activities you cannot travel to another county unless you are double jabbed, the fine £1000 ( maybe Euros ). In contrast to the slowdown in other countries France are still vaccinating 4 - 500,000 a day, plenty with the one dose Johnson and Johnson and are way ahead of us on % vaccinated. It maybe coincidental but the daily cases in France are dropping as they are in Ireland, but nobody knows what to expect with this virus and those that tell us differently are simply guessing.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Spectre - was that an 007 Freudian slip. I know that's  how some see him with white cat. 😉

 

More of a Scaramanger  

Edited September 3, 2021 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,199]

The latest Israeli data is fascinating. This is an absolute brilliant article, which shows why only 60% of Israeli’s have the vaccine ( I never knew that I thought it was religious ), why they thought they had eradicated COVID, what then happened and why they are not sure if they have found the solution or if we will need to be jabbed every 6 months. Although this is based around Pfizer, AZ were showing the safe dwindling immunities. 

I reckon based on this boosters will be announced soon and possibly adds spice to the rumours that we have low stocks of vaccines currently meaning it was boosters or 12 - 15’s immediately.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58432776

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The latest Israeli data is fascinating. This is an absolute brilliant article, which shows why only 60% of Israeli’s have the vaccine ( I never knew that I thought it was religious ), why they thought they had eradicated COVID, what then happened and why they are not sure if they have found the solution or if we will need to be jabbed every 6 months. Although this is based around Pfizer, AZ were showing the safe dwindling immunities. 

I reckon based on this boosters will be announced soon and possibly adds spice to the rumours that we have low stocks of vaccines currently meaning it was boosters or 12 - 15’s immediately.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58432776

I have read a suggestion that the drop off in Pfizer efficiency is less with a bigger interval between the two jabs.

I'm beginning to feel the having AZ wasn't such a bad thing after all, still so much to learn though

Edited September 3, 2021 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,199]

Lots of news today some bad here regarding the flu jab and delays because of the driver shortages.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58442611

[Well b back 3,199]

Just now, Van wink said:

I have read a suggestion that the drop off in Pfizer efficiency is less with a bigger interval between the two jabs.

I understand it’s swings and roundabouts ie 92% after 2 doses 21 days apart, 88% and a rapid drop off if 12 weeks, but then possible slower drop off. 
If only we had the answers, if we follow Israel with autumn / winter approaching could and I repeat could be major problems approaching without jab 3 for the vulnerable.

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I understand it’s swings and roundabouts ie 92% after 2 doses 21 days apart, 88% and a rapid drop off if 12 weeks, but then possible slower drop off. 
If only we had the answers, if we follow Israel with autumn / winter approaching could and I repeat could be major problems approaching without jab 3 for the vulnerable.

Indeed, have to agree with Mr Hunt, we should just get on with the third jab for all the elderly, and of course the vulnerable, as has been announced.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

More of a Scaramanger  

Does the vaccine give you three nipples?😁

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

I understand it’s swings and roundabouts ie 92% after 2 doses 21 days apart, 88% and a rapid drop off if 12 weeks, but then possible slower drop off. 
If only we had the answers, if we follow Israel with autumn / winter approaching could and I repeat could be major problems approaching without jab 3 for the vulnerable.

Agreed. This is why I take the precautionary principle. 

We don't know where we are so why take unnecessary risks.

[Well b back 3,199]

It’s all becoming strange, I reckon the government will overrule the JCVI regards jabs for the 12 +. 
Madness just to keep case numbers down so people ‘ like ‘ them still, nothing to do with the dangers pointed out by the JCVI. 

[Well b back 3,199]

Here is a very good article re the NHS and how it could or could not be overwhelmed this winter. It is an interesting read.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58413764

[ricardo 7,382]

ZOE drops sharply for second day running.

[ricardo 7,382]

National

37,578 - 120

rate of increase 2.4%

Some areas up some down, overall still fairly static

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     285.6    down 9.3% on the week

(24 patients in N&N   down from 25               ( updated to 31st Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      33,587                88.7% done                 Norwich numbers   76.4%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     108,290             79.6% done                                                     66.5%

 

In Hospital

02-09-2021	7,541
01-09-2021	7,611
31-08-2021	7,629
30-08-2021	7,292
29-08-2021	7,064
28-08-2021	6,936
27-08-2021	7,045
26-08-2021	6,999