Corona Virus main thread

[Barbe bleu 826]

Upo are you Finnish?

[ricardo 7,394]

National

32,406 - 133

rate of Increase 8% (7 days) fourth day of rate decline

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     340.4    down 10.3% on the week

(25 patients in N&N   up from 16               ( updated to 24th Aug))

Vax

1st Dose      43,160                88.2% done                 Norwich numbers   76.7%

2nd Dose     128,248             78.2% done                                                     65.4%

In Hospital

26-08-2021	6,942
25-08-2021	6,920
24-08-2021	6,908
23-08-2021	6,973
22-08-2021	6,704
21-08-2021	6,491
20-08-2021	6,484

[ricardo 7,394]

National

26,476 - 48 - 133

rate of Increase 1. 8% (7 days) sixth day of rate decline

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     312.3    down 24.9% on the week

(25 patients in N&N   up from 16               ( updated to 24th Aug))

Vax

1st Dose      23,612                88.4% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%

2nd Dose     78,871             78.6% done                                                     66.1%

In Hospital

6-08-2021	6,942
25-08-2021	6,920
24-08-2021	6,908
23-08-2021	6,973
22-08-2021	6,704
21-08-2021	6,491
20-08-2021	6,484

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

26,476 - 48 - 133

rate of Increase 1. 8% (7 days) sixth day of rate decline

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     312.3    down 24.9% on the week

(25 patients in N&N   up from 16               ( updated to 24th Aug))

Vax

1st Dose      23,612                88.4% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%

2nd Dose     78,871             78.6% done                                                     66.1%

In Hospital

6-08-2021	6,942
25-08-2021	6,920
24-08-2021	6,908
23-08-2021	6,973
22-08-2021	6,704
21-08-2021	6,491
20-08-2021	6,484

Thanks Ricardo, so I assume things are staying static in England but still high levels in Scotland.  I've seen a chart that the 7-day average in Scotland seems to be plateauing but it's hard to find any proper analysis, the news outlets I can see are just simplistically repeating the numbers.  If things are hitting the peak there and then decline, that will be very promising for us south of the border.

[sonyc 5,517]

4 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks Ricardo, so I assume things are staying static in England but still high levels in Scotland.  I've seen a chart that the 7-day average in Scotland seems to be plateauing but it's hard to find any proper analysis, the news outlets I can see are just simplistically repeating the numbers.  If things are hitting the peak there and then decline, that will be very promising for us south of the border.

Still flat (or slightly increasing) in England. Pagel's analysis here:

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

22 hours ago, sonyc said:

Still flat (or slightly increasing) in England. Pagel's analysis here:

 

 

I think the phrase is 'sleep-walking' that we're looking for.

[ricardo 7,394]

49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think the phrase is 'sleep-walking' that we're looking for.

Thats Indie Sage for you😉

[ricardo 7,394]

National

32,181 - 50

rate of Increase 0.7% (7 days) Now virtually flat

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     294.7    down 18.9% on the week

(25 patients in N&N   up from 16               ( updated to 24th Aug))

Vax

1st Dose      19,643                88.4% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%

2nd Dose     66,648             78.7% done                                                     66.1%

In Hospital

27-08-2021	7,015
26-08-2021	6,983
25-08-2021	6,943
24-08-2021	6,923
23-08-2021	6,981
22-08-2021	6,712
21-08-2021	6,498

[Van wink 2,994]

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-france-covid-immunity-passport-vaccine-pass/

 

Wish we had done something like this, been lots of talk but not much action in the UK

[SteveN8458 64]

12 hours ago, Van wink said:

 been lots of talk but not much action in the UK

sums up the Uk government really

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

28 minutes ago, SteveN8458 said:

sums up the Uk government really

This government is simply led by the nose by public opinion - whatever is the flavour of the day. It follows not leads.

[Indy 3,300]

53 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

This government is simply led by the nose by public opinion - whatever is the flavour of the day. It follows not leads.

That’s how he got the job in the first place! Took advantage of the gullible anti foreigner brigade!

Without the great work by the science medical and logistics not to mention those who dedicated their spare time to help the vaccine roll out we’d be in a real mess. This government should be held accountable for the Covid years and an independent investigation should be held once we get back to a level of normality.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

That’s how he got the job in the first place! Took advantage of the gullible anti foreigner brigade!

Without the great work by the science medical and logistics not to mention those who dedicated their spare time to help the vaccine roll out we’d be in a real mess. This government should be held accountable for the Covid years and an independent investigation should be held once we get back to a level of normality.

Agree Indy  - but didn't want to conflict this thread with Brexit.

The Covid enquiry should start asap - same as in Scotland (we are led to believe we have seen the back of Covid by some already). Of course 'honest' mistakes were made and these would be forgivable in the circumstances. It's the mistakes made for political reasons or simple incompetence that cause alarm. Either way we need to learn and more so implement the lessons quickly so as not to continue to keep making them.

Edited September 1, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

A few days old but worth reiterating - extracted Spector's comments.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-bounces-back-as-cases-start-to-rise

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, comments on the latest data:

“Unfortunately, we’re back in a position where cases, hospitalisations and deaths are all going up and the UK has the highest rates of COVID in Europe, despite our superior vaccination rates. The main difference between the UK and Europe is our lack of restrictions. In many parts of Europe, people are still wearing face coverings and observing some social distancing. In the UK, where we eagerly declared ‘freedom’ from COVID and did away with even the most basic social measures, COVID has found an opportunity to spread. As kids head back to the classrooms, there’s a good chance cases will continue to rise from here.

According to data from the ZOE COVID Study, fully vaccinated people now make up nearly 30% of positive cases and so it’s critical to be aware of the symptoms of COVID after vaccination. Our data shows post-vaccination infections are much more like a cold than the flu, with the top symptoms being runny nose, headache, sneezing, sore throat and loss of smell. We’re again calling on the government to add these cold-like symptoms to their list to help educate the public and catch more cases.”

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

A few days old but worth reiterating - extracted Spector's comments.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-bounces-back-as-cases-start-to-rise

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, comments on the latest data:

“Unfortunately, we’re back in a position where cases, hospitalisations and deaths are all going up and the UK has the highest rates of COVID in Europe, despite our superior vaccination rates. The main difference between the UK and Europe is our lack of restrictions. In many parts of Europe, people are still wearing face coverings and observing some social distancing. In the UK, where we eagerly declared ‘freedom’ from COVID and did away with even the most basic social measures, COVID has found an opportunity to spread. As kids head back to the classrooms, there’s a good chance cases will continue to rise from here.

According to data from the ZOE COVID Study, fully vaccinated people now make up nearly 30% of positive cases and so it’s critical to be aware of the symptoms of COVID after vaccination. Our data shows post-vaccination infections are much more like a cold than the flu, with the top symptoms being runny nose, headache, sneezing, sore throat and loss of smell. We’re again calling on the government to add these cold-like symptoms to their list to help educate the public and catch more cases.”

Yes exactly this, his report last week was non too positive and it’s frustrating, to say the least, that we could have done more on policy to keep this under better control

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Yes exactly this, his report last week was non too positive and it’s frustrating, to say the least, that we could have done more on policy to keep this under better control

Truth is for the last month or so the news has been dominated by events elsewhere and the 'holiday' season. Everybody has been distracted and nobody's been at the wheel - least of all the government (or just plain not listening / wishful thinking). Then we'll all wonder why it has returned (hint it never really went away as our continued high prevalence indicates - the dashboard flashing all the red warning lights it can).

[sonyc 5,517]

51 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Truth is for the last month or so the news has been dominated by events elsewhere and the 'holiday' season. Everybody has been distracted and nobody's been at the wheel - least of all the government (or just plain not listening / wishful thinking). Then we'll all wonder why it has returned (hint it never really went away as our continued high prevalence indicates - the dashboard flashing all the red warning lights it can).

Agree with this very much. It was interesting to see recently one side of the house unmasked and the opposition with face masks on after MP's had all come back to the chamber once restrictions had been fully lifted. It was an opportunity for the ruling party to set an example to match their (so-called) public health guidance ("continue to take care" etc etc). But their behaviour didn't match the kind of words we have seen to camera - and those have been scarce these last few weeks. You'd think we are not living in a pandemic!

I know there are a few posters on here who will say "live and let live" and yet why cannot we carry on being serious about it (without the scare mongering)? Even this blog update (copied below) speaks of the NHS preparing for a very difficult winter with respiratory diseases (all kinds) being a probable issue. High rates of infection will not help the health service with all its other pressures. You read too that doctors predict hospitalisation of younger people ahead.

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/07/23/why-we-are-preparing-for-a-worst-case-scenario-winter-season/

"Nobody's been at the wheel" feels quite an apt summary. The Foreign Secretary couldn't even be bothered to come back from holiday whilst Afghanistan troubles blew up, no word from the Health Secretary ...oh and Johnson is spending his time in the sea off the west coast apparently.

[Indy 3,300]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Agree with this very much. It was interesting to see recently one side of the house unmasked and the opposition with face masks on after MP's had all come back to the chamber once restrictions had been fully lifted. It was an opportunity for the ruling party to set an example to match their (so-called) public health guidance ("continue to take care" etc etc). But their behaviour didn't match the kind of words we have seen to camera - and those have been scarce these last few weeks. You'd think we are not living in a pandemic!

I know there are a few posters on here who will say "live and let live" and yet why cannot we carry on being serious about it (without the scare mongering)? Even this blog update (copied below) speaks of the NHS preparing for a very difficult winter with respiratory diseases (all kinds) being a probable issue. High rates of infection will not help the health service with all its other pressures. You read too that doctors predict hospitalisation of younger people ahead.

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/07/23/why-we-are-preparing-for-a-worst-case-scenario-winter-season/

"Nobody's been at the wheel" feels quite an apt summary. The Foreign Secretary couldn't even be bothered to come back from holiday whilst Afghanistan troubles blew up, no word from the Health Secretary ...oh and Johnson is spending his time in the sea off the west coast apparently.

To add, I was at the football this weekend and there’s possibly 10% of us wearing masks in crowded areas! 
As I’ve been a vocal supporter of everyone doing their own risk assessment and being sensible, but it appears that people are like sheep and need to be lead! Sad as I find this to be true, I can see that mandatory masks wearing and distancing will be bought back in the wintertime! Rightly so.

[ricardo 7,394]

National

35,693 - 207

rate of decrease 0.2%

Some areas up some down, overall still fairly static

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     293.3    down 15.2% on the week

(25 patients in N&N   up from 16               ( no update since 24th Aug))

 

Vax

1st Dose      38,596                88.5% done                 Norwich numbers   76.8%

2nd Dose     117,437             78.9% done                                                     66.7%

In Hospital (England numbers down on yesterday, Scotland and Wales up)

31-08-2021	7,598
30-08-2021	7,272
29-08-2021	7,045
28-08-2021	6,920
27-08-2021	7,032
26-08-2021	6,992
25-08-2021	6,949

[ricardo 7,394]

14 minutes ago, Indy said:

To add, I was at the football this weekend and there’s possibly 10% of us wearing masks in crowded areas! 
As I’ve been a vocal supporter of everyone doing their own risk assessment and being sensible, but it appears that people are like sheep and need to be lead! Sad as I find this to be true, I can see that mandatory masks wearing and distancing will be bought back in the wintertime! Rightly so.

Interestingly this doesn't seem to be born out by the evidence. England relaxed mask wearing on July 19th.

Don't ask me why, as I have no idea, but these are the facts

[Indy 3,300]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Interestingly this doesn't seem to be born out by the evidence. England relaxed mask wearing on July 19th.

Don't ask me why, as I have no idea, but these are the facts

It’s certainly good data set, but what I saw at CR was very few masks now and certainly no distancing, though very difficult if not impossible to distance in mass events like this.

I think if we see numbers rise in England we will see returns of various restrictions though. Fingers crossed numbers stay as they are and keep falling. Scotland curve is strange, they were lot more cautious then bang! 

[ricardo 7,394]

13 minutes ago, Indy said:

It’s certainly good data set, but what I saw at CR was very few masks now and certainly no distancing, though very difficult if not impossible to distance in mass events like this.

I think if we see numbers rise in England we will see returns of various restrictions though. Fingers crossed numbers stay as they are and keep falling. Scotland curve is strange, they were lot more cautious then bang! 

You are probably far safer at Carrow Road than you are down the pub, club or in a restaurant.

[Yellow Fever 3,783]

16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Interestingly this doesn't seem to be born out by the evidence. England relaxed mask wearing on July 19th.

Don't ask me why, as I have no idea, but these are the facts

We've been here though Ricardo - the random ONS data is nothing like so dramatic and there seem very good explanations with the English schools (and associated parental meetings) breaking up at the same coupled with a decrease in (mandatory school) testing. Much as Trump always liked to say if you don't test for it you wont' detect it.  Anyway if we see the hockey stick upward curve next few weeks as the schools return again then we'll all have our answer as to mid July.

I see another variant 'Mu' has entered the lexicon of variant of concern. Hmm.

[ricardo 7,394]

The Cornwall effect finally appears to be fading away, good news for KG.

[sonyc 5,517]

Another interesting graph. Shows where the problems might develop in the world. 

 

 

 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

The numbers for England are incredibly encouraging IMO, when you consider the expectation was we'd have around 3m active cases and actually it seems somewhere more like 1/4 of that.  It's a bit ironic many were calling for a delay in restrictions being relaxed until early September i.e. when schools go back.  Now it's been realised the timing on 19th July was well judged, and this was explicitly part of the thinking at that time.

 

Yes I fully expect an increase in September when schools go back and summer is over.  What's happened to Scotland since their schools returned may give us an idea of what to expect, if their numbers are currently at around the peak, that is also encouraging.

 

Given what we now know about waning vaccine effectiveness (especially Pfizer) and the superior immunity from actually catching Covid itself, it seems the strategy of removing restrictions in summer and being guided by hospital admission levels (more than any other level) is spot on.  The idea that the Govt had it's eye off the ball on Covid over the summer is frankly laughable.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

The Cornwall effect finally appears to be fading away, good news for KG.

Played golf today with a chap whose daughter works on our hospital's Covid ward. And apparently she said they are preparing another ward. But  nobody is in danger, they just have breathing difficulty. ICU has no more than normal.

Still plenty of crappy hampers here at the moment and a group of them got the Anne Robinson look from me in Tesco as none of them had a mask on.

Schools back next week so we will wait for any changes.

[ricardo 7,394]

[sonyc 5,517]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

The numbers for England are incredibly encouraging IMO, when you consider the expectation was we'd have around 3m active cases and actually it seems somewhere more like 1/4 of that.  It's a bit ironic many were calling for a delay in restrictions being relaxed until early September i.e. when schools go back.  Now it's been realised the timing on 19th July was well judged, and this was explicitly part of the thinking at that time.

 

Yes I fully expect an increase in September when schools go back and summer is over.  What's happened to Scotland since their schools returned may give us an idea of what to expect, if their numbers are currently at around the peak, that is also encouraging.

 

Given what we now know about waning vaccine effectiveness (especially Pfizer) and the superior immunity from actually catching Covid itself, it seems the strategy of removing restrictions in summer and being guided by hospital admission levels (more than any other level) is spot on.  The idea that the Govt had it's eye off the ball on Covid over the summer is frankly laughable.

I've not thought the strategy was the wrong one and I've posted as much. I agree and think overall the signs show we can expect a slow rise now. 

Given the withdrawal of all restrictions, we might have had stronger public health messages during the summer. Round where we live about 90% are not wearing masks and social distancing has gone by the wayside. The guidance by Whitty and others was to keep being careful but to try and live our lives.

Whatever we all think of Sturgeon or Drakeford, we appear to have heard more from them than our own government on Covid. Whatever colour is in power, especially during a pandemic, you just want them to govern. The country needs to be guided what to do in this health crisis (in my opinion) but we have a government that is very laissez faire. 

Oh well, just have to wait and see and hope for the best.

[ricardo 7,394]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Whatever we all think of Sturgeon or Drakeford, we appear to have heard more from them than our own government on Covid. Whatever colour is in power, especially during a pandemic, you just want them to govern. The country needs to be guided what to do in this health crisis (in my opinion) but we have a government that is very laissez faire. 

Oh well, just have to wait and see and hope for the best.

Yes, they certainly made some noise, but to little avail by the look of things