Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,384]

Oh dear, latest Russian reports give number of deaths at over 800 today. Putin must realise he's been rumbled and sent new orders out.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

The Putin remark was a bit tongue in cheek but it does look that what started off as a conspiracy theory, that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab has gained some traction with the emergence of circumstantial evidence that the lab has been experimenting with adding the covid spike to corona viruses, funded by the Americans of all people. The clip is a congressional investigation into the CDC's relationship with Wuhan - it gets a bit juicy towards the end.

 

[Herman 9,756]

Never listen to a man that gets his name the wrong way round.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

7 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

The Putin remark was a bit tongue in cheek but it does look that what started off as a conspiracy theory, that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab has gained some traction with the emergence of circumstantial evidence that the lab has been experimenting with adding the covid spike to corona viruses, funded by the Americans of all people. The clip is a congressional investigation into the CDC's relationship with Wuhan - it gets a bit juicy towards the end.

 

 

Fauci 10, Rand Nil. Gosh your boy took a beating.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Rand Paul is the lying scumbag whose wife bought stock in company's making anti viral drugs for the treatment of Covid 19.

Then he didn't disclose it and then claimed he meant to disclose it but forgot.

Then tells Fauci he could go to prison for lying to Congress.

How the hell do the people of Kentucky still vote for this piece of trash?

[ricardo 7,384]

National

32,700 - 100

rate of Increase 7.8% (7 days)

all very static

Local

Norwich infection rate     452.3  little difference last 6 days

(27 patients in N&N  ( updated to 10th Aug))

Vax 1st Dose      44,384                89.3% done                 Norwich numbers   76.4% 2nd Dose     192,559              76% done                                                       60.4% In Hospital 12-08-2021                  5,875 11-08-2021 5,944 10-08-2021 5,964 09-08-2021 5,965 08-08-2021 5,808 07-08-2021 5,652 06-08-2021 5,705

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

20 hours ago, ricardo said:

Oh dear, latest Russian reports give number of deaths at over 800 today. Putin must realise he's been rumbled and sent new orders out.

That is just the dissidents. Only they get Covid. Nobody sneezes or coughs in Russia. You keep your mouth shut.

 

[Mark .Y. 352]

On 12/08/2021 at 13:43, keelansgrandad said:

But we still think we are a major player especially now we have our sovereignty back🇬🇧🇬🇧

The world sees us as a joke at the moment.

Only this mob would hold the G7 in one of the poorest areas of the country but at a wealthy resort. What a joke.

Really, KG ????

That's certainly not the impression I get from talking to the people in the ExxonMobil world. Small sample, I know, but I've never heard anybody go anywhere near to suggesting that we are seen as a joke. 

[Essjayess 307]

36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

32,700 - 100

rate of Increase 7.8% (7 days)

all very static

Local

Norwich infection rate     452.3  little difference last 6 days

(27 patients in N&N  ( updated to 10th Aug))

Vax 1st Dose      44,384                89.3% done                 Norwich numbers   76.4% 2nd Dose     192,559              76% done                                                       60.4% In Hospital 12-08-2021                  5,875 11-08-2021 5,944 10-08-2021 5,964 09-08-2021 5,965 08-08-2021 5,808 07-08-2021 5,652 06-08-2021 5,705

yes...no more big waves either direction...thats faded away. Seems we have found a settled form of stats, be they good or bad. 25-30k ish  new  daily cases, 100 daily deaths and 6k hospital admissions...looks like its going to be the norm for some time now.

[Indy 3,297]

21 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

yes...no more big waves either direction...thats faded away. Seems we have found a settled form of stats, be they good or bad. 25-30k ish  new  daily cases, 100 daily deaths and 6k hospital admissions...looks like its going to be the norm for some time now.

Which is good, we need to remember around 1500 die each day, the national average, at present we are hovering around the average some weeks higher others lower, but generally within the average. So again these are with Covid and most had serious underlying conditions which might have taken them anyhow!

If stats stabilise at this level through the next 6 months it’s will be a result.

[Herman 9,756]

On 09/08/2021 at 15:51, king canary said:

Did I see correctly that Piers Corbyn and his peculiar bunch of bellends are going to be protesting outside the Murderers tomorrow?

FFS, they were as well. Twats.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/anti-vaccine-protest-at-murderers-pub-in-norwich-8224620

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Fauci 10, Rand Nil. Gosh your boy took a beating.

Not really, they both ended up calling each other liars and it came down to a games of words over the meaning of 'gain of function'. I would say there is a lot more to come that is not yet in the public domain.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

On 12/08/2021 at 13:43, keelansgrandad said:

But we still think we are a major player especially now we have our sovereignty back🇬🇧🇬🇧

The world sees us as a joke at the moment.

Only this mob would hold the G7 in one of the poorest areas of the country but at a wealthy resort. What a joke.

Holding the G7 meeting in one of the poorest areas of the country makes good sense. Lots of media folk will be following the G7, film crews, commentators, journalists from around the world and all spending money in hotels, hospitality and highlighting the area for potential visitors. What's not to like?

[Well b back 3,202]

3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Not really, they both ended up calling each other liars and it came down to a games of words over the meaning of 'gain of function'. I would say there is a lot more to come that is not yet in the public domain.

You are so gullible you believe any s*** going, I remember Ivor Cummins and the charts that were done by a nine year old schoolboy who called himself professor Pogo, that he claimed were official printed papers. 

[Indy 3,297]

8 hours ago, Well b back said:

You are so gullible you believe any s*** going, I remember Ivor Cummins and the charts that were done by a nine year old schoolboy who called himself professor Pogo, that he claimed were official printed papers. 

Don’t feed him, this threads been relatively free from people trying to cause an argument and very informative with good debate. Now thanks to a few who obviously aren’t getting the attention in the positive Brexit thread are on this thread trying to derail this into another political debate instead of a Covid debate! Ignore them WBB……

[sonyc 5,511]

15 hours ago, Indy said:

Which is good, we need to remember around 1500 die each day, the national average, at present we are hovering around the average some weeks higher others lower, but generally within the average. So again these are with Covid and most had serious underlying conditions which might have taken them anyhow!

If stats stabilise at this level through the next 6 months it’s will be a result.

Agree. It's what happens from autumn onwards that will perhaps give us the most reliable steer..... with football, public venues fully open, life being lived more 'as normal' plus ever improving vaccination coverage (perhaps with boosters). If the situation stays much the same then it will be encouraging (Whitty did say we might have an uncomfortable winter didn't he but he also was his usual guarded self).

 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

37 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Agree. It's what happens from autumn onwards that will perhaps give us the most reliable steer..... with football, public venues fully open, life being lived more 'as normal' plus ever improving vaccination coverage (perhaps with boosters). If the situation stays much the same then it will be encouraging (Whitty did say we might have an uncomfortable winter didn't he but he also was his usual guarded self).

 

Exactly.

I don't want to put a downer on things but the situation hasn't really changed (not even a large fall) since the summer as the ONS figures show.

Prevalence remains high but generally static (growing in the 18-30 group as expected but stable/slowly declining elsewhere). The modest perceived drop in confirmed PCR tests about which a lot of froth was made a month ago was clearly largely due to school holidays starting and school children dropping out of the formal testing not in itself a large decline in the disease.  Even now these numbers are steadily inexorably slowly rising 7 - 8% a week again but as ever don't trust them (although I suspect these are now actually more reflective of symptomatic people who feel they have to get tested as opposed to many non-symptomatic school children).

The issue remains it will be likely return with a bang (it never went away just we ignored it) in late September, well pre-seeded,  as the kids and students return. At least the vaccines for 16 plus will help.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/dvc1522/officialestimates/index.html

 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Aggy 755]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Agree. It's what happens from autumn onwards that will perhaps give us the most reliable steer..... with football, public venues fully open, life being lived more 'as normal' plus ever improving vaccination coverage (perhaps with boosters). If the situation stays much the same then it will be encouraging (Whitty did say we might have an uncomfortable winter didn't he but he also was his usual guarded self).

 

Think fairly obvious figures will go up in the autumn and winter. What we need to be looking at then though is the overall picture and hospitalisations/hospitals being overwhelmed.  Many forget, or choose to ignore, that we have warnings about hospitals being overwhelmed most years, even pre-covid. We have huge waiting lists, made worse in winter months, we have non urgent surgeries cancelled every year because of capacity issues in winter months etc.

If covid in many people effectively replaces flu, where the end result is that we don’t really see much more than normal then that will be ‘good’. Glad to see though that at least most people now appear to have moved on from the idea that case numbers alone are the be all and end all.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

So the ONS numbers came out on Friday and they say that they show an overall decreasing trend in cases in England and Scotland over the previous 2 weeks (remember this report only goes up to 6th August so is always well out of date). This seems to me fully backs up the accuracy of the declining PCR numbers we were seeing for that period, so people who thought there was a contradiction between the different sources of data didn’t understand the delays particularly for the ONS data.

 

So we had declining cases several weeks after the 19th July reopening. This is what it means for herd immunity to be taking effect.

 

Now, since then cases have started to creep up slightly on the PCR numbers so we’ll have to see if the ONS confirms that in time , this would be consistent with my guess and personal observation that people have started to live more “back to normal” as time has gone on . This will be made worse by the return of certain mass gatherings this weekend 😱🤔. My understanding is that this pushes up the level of  immunity in the population required to reach herd immunity, but at the same time everyone who either has Covid or has their first or second jab is adding to the population immunity level as we go along - it’s building up constantly.

 

Looking ahead we can fully expect something similar when schools go back (although newsflash- teenagers do still meet up during the summer holidays ! I’m a parent of one! ). It is simply a question of how much that impact will be in September.

 

Ultimately as long as hospital cases don’t get out of control then we can just expect a repeat of the last few months, with higher cases for a while, but tailing off as herd immunity is re-achieved at a higher level of the population. Hopefully there will be no need to reimpose restrictions and we can ride it out.

Edited August 15, 2021 by It's Character Forming
Clarification

[ricardo 7,384]

National

26,750 - 61

rate of Increase 4.9% (7 days)

ZOE numbers starting to fall again, official numbers won't be far behind

Local

Norwich infection rate     412.9  beginning to drop back

(27 patients in N&N  ( updated to 10th Aug))

Vax 1st Dose      46,603                89.4% done                 Norwich numbers   76.4% 2nd Dose     199,584              76.7% done                                                       61.2% In Hospital 12-08-2021                 5,875 11-08-2021 5,944 10-08-2021 5,964 09-08-2021 5,965 08-08-2021 5,808 07-08-2021 5,652 06-08-2021 5,705

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

So the ONS numbers came out on Friday and they say that they show an overall decreasing trend in cases in England and Scotland over the previous 2 weeks (remember this report only goes up to 6th August so is always well out of date). This seems to me fully backs up the accuracy of the declining PCR numbers we were seeing for that period, so people who thought there was a contradiction between the different sources of data didn’t understand the delays particularly for the ONS data.

 

So we had declining cases several weeks after the 19th July reopening. This is what it means for herd immunity to be taking effect.

 

Now, since then cases have started to creep up slightly on the PCR numbers so we’ll have to see if the ONS confirms that in time , this would be consistent with my guess and personal observation that people have started to live more “back to normal” as time has gone on . This will be made worse by the return of certain mass gatherings this weekend 😱🤔. My understanding is that this pushes up the level of  immunity in the population required to reach herd immunity, but at the same time everyone who either has Covid or has their first or second jab is adding to the population immunity level as we go along - it’s building up constantly.

 

Looking ahead we can fully expect something similar when schools go back (although newsflash- teenagers do still meet up during the summer holidays ! I’m a parent of one! ). It is simply a question of how much that impact will be in September.

 

Ultimately as long as hospital cases don’t get out of control then we can just expect a repeat of the last few months, with higher cases for a while, but tailing off as herd immunity is re-achieved at a higher level of the population. Hopefully there will be no need to reimpose restrictions and we can ride it out.

A few days ago ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

A few days ago ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

If so, cases would not be dropping when people are freely mixing. What other reason can there be for a reduction in new infections ?

[Van wink 2,994]

Happy to relax a bit now ICF but it would take a very brave man to predict how this will develop as the seasons change, a very long way to go

[Aggy 755]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

If so, cases would not be dropping when people are freely mixing. What other reason can there be for a reduction in new infections ?

Has to be some degree of it doesn’t it? Presumably we don’t have total herd immunity for very much at all - flu, people who are vaccinated still get it and die from it, so presumably that’s the same. But quite obviously the more people who are jabbed or who have had it and survived, the fewer people are going to end up in hospital if they do catch it.

Interesting that the same scientist seems to query whether boosters will even be needed. 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

13 hours ago, Van wink said:

Happy to relax a bit now ICF but it would take a very brave man to predict how this will develop as the seasons change, a very long way to go

Israel is often held up as being ahead of the vaccine / delta curve and the class leader

May be informative as to what lies ahead. The most worrying bit of Israeli data to me is -

A July report from the Israel Ministry of Health found that Pfizer/BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel, where the Delta variant is the dominant strain but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization. According to the report, the vaccines still work very well in preventing severe cases, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness. But this is still is a steep decline from the earlier estimate of 64% efficacy rate released on July 5, and steeper still from the initial 95% efficacy rate Israel published in May, based on records from Jan. 24 to April 3, 2021.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-covid-cases-pass-500-for-1st-time-since-march-as-outbreak-surges/

https://www.ft.com/content/c21e2053-0373-4b8e-80b7-fad10f235604

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/08/11/israels-recent-surge-confirms-we-need-a-multimodal-strategy-to-fight-covid-19/

In short it's a 'numbers' game.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

On 14/08/2021 at 07:39, Indy said:

Don’t feed him, this threads been relatively free from people trying to cause an argument and very informative with good debate. Now thanks to a few who obviously aren’t getting the attention in the positive Brexit thread are on this thread trying to derail this into another political debate instead of a Covid debate! Ignore them WBB……

You want a thread where everybody agrees with everybody else or are you open to other opinions?

Papers are being prepared to bring Fauci to court for lying to Congress. He will be unable to hide the truth in that case and we will discover if he did actually fund the Wuhan lab that created this virus. 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

On 13/08/2021 at 23:20, Well b back said:

You are so gullible you believe any s*** going, I remember Ivor Cummins and the charts that were done by a nine year old schoolboy who called himself professor Pogo, that he claimed were official printed papers. 

Yet Cummins was completely correct in his forecasts when he said that the virus would disappear in the summer and return in a second wave in the autumn. His predictions of numbers of deaths were far closer to outcomes than the Sage group who wildly overpredicted outcomes and continue to overpredict today. So you are the gullible one who has spent the entire covid period as a scared little rabbit calling for months of lockdown. Had the country followed your advise we would be like Australia entering its sixth lockdown, or New Zealand that has been praised on here but now has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the world and is building permanent quarantine camps, following the Chinese model. Fortunately, the majority ignore your predictions of ever deepening gloom and are out enjoying the real world. 

[A Load of Squit 5,161]

1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

You want a thread where everybody agrees with everybody else or are you open to other opinions?

Papers are being prepared to bring Fauci to court for lying to Congress. He will be unable to hide the truth in that case and we will discover if he did actually fund the Wuhan lab that created this virus. 

RWNJ Rand Paul wrote to the DOJ requesting an investigation. That was 3 weeks ago, so far, nothing.

Meanwhile Rand Paul took 16 months to remember that his wife had made an investment in a company that's involved in a COVID treatment.

More recently Rand Paul has been suspended from Youtube for COVID misinformation.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

18 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

If so, cases would not be dropping when people are freely mixing. What other reason can there be for a reduction in new infections ?

There are many reasons for a reduction besides herd immunity (the normal definition of such) - most obviously last summer or in a lockdown or forms of social distancing. Apart from a few discredited odd-balls nobody was seriously saying we had achieved herd immunity last summer even on 'alpha' but reduce it did.

[ricardo 7,384]

ZOE has resummed its decline so we may see official numbers responding this week