Corona Virus main thread

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I'm not a fan of percentages. Ultimately, 1% of the population is 700,000. I find it difficult to dismiss that amount without imagining the population of Glasgow.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

The real sensible bottom line is that once you have demonstrated that you have the virus under control (cases steady/declining) then you can tentatively move the the next step and repeat. You don't push ahead when case are rising rapidly clearly already out of control. 10% of the so called wall of vaccines will have symptoms in a free for all. Is that 10% of 36 to 46M (1 or 2 doses)

so what do you do about those that can't/won't get vaccinated? It's inevitable that if we are to get back to normal there is going to be an explosion of cases at some point. Staying at the last step wasn't going to stem the flow so the only way to get back under control with cases would be pushing back to step 2 for an indeterminate amount of time. Do you really think that's a sustainable way of living?

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

11 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

so what do you do about those that can't/won't get vaccinated? It's inevitable that if we are to get back to normal there is going to be an explosion of cases at some point. Staying at the last step wasn't going to stem the flow so the only way to get back under control with cases would be pushing back to step 2 for an indeterminate amount of time. Do you really think that's a sustainable way of living?

So what do you do about those that can't/won't get vaccinated?

What the government is doing - a little bit of stick. Want to go to a large event, nIght club, large pub, Carrow Rd. - get jabbed else stay away. I'd love to open up fully - funnily enough I'm a risk taker but many aren't and certainly undeserving of their very own personalized Covid challenge as a cold experiment on dumb lab rats.

Once you have done all you can do sensibly - say by mid September, then we can have this discussion again.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

So what do you do about those that can't/won't get vaccinated?

What the government is doing - a little bit of stick. Want to go to a large event, nIght club, large pub, Carrow Rd. - get jabbed else stay away. I'd love to open up fully - funnily enough I'm a risk taker but many aren't and certainly undeserving of their very own personalized Covid challenge as a cold experiment on dumb lab rats.

Once you have done all you can do sensibly - say by mid September, then we can have this discussion again.

I suspect that unless we have permenant NPIs the personalised covid challenge will be a sad inevitability. In some ways, a sharp but short exit wave rather than a long drawn out one may work better for them.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

7 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I suspect that unless we have permenant NPIs the personalised covid challenge will be a sad inevitability. In some ways, a sharp but short exit wave rather than a long drawn out one may work better for them.

I really don't have much sympathy for the antivaxxers and similar - but lets try and get (in my view) our 16 plus done and 'activated' before we plunge them willing or not into an experiment. At the moment many of the willing have had only 1 dose if that. That's why the current position is unethical. They are our children and grandchildren we are deliberately placing at risk by our own selfish impatience.

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Tetteys Jig 830]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I really don't have much sympathy for the antivaxxers and similar - but lets try and get (in my view) our 16 plus done and 'activated' before we plunge them willing or not into an experiment. At the moment many of the willing have had only 1 dose if that. That's why the current position is unethical. They are our children and grandchildren we are deliberately placing at risk by our own selfish impatience.

 

isn't the problem with that the issues with waning immunity for the elderly? I can appreciate and understand your approach but that then just plunges all this into winter where we have been made to understand it would be far worse to have this exit wave.

It's a tough one as anyone waiting for their second dose now should be low risk and the vast majority are choosing to gamble their health to have the taste of freedom (see nightclubs/football/wimbledon/Royal Albert Hall/ whatever mass gathering floats your boat)

For me, I'd let people get their 2nd dose 3+ weeks after their first.

I don't see the vaccine passport actually taking off in many settings bar travel either. Hopefully announcing it does at least shunt a few people on.

I already managed to convince a few of my mates to get jabbed by explaining facts and telling them there's this possibility...

[ricardo 7,380]

National

46,558 - 96

rate of increase 41% (7 days)

Local

Norwich infection rate up from  276 to 313.7 (3 patients in N&N)

Vax

1st Dose       36,670                88% done                 Norwich numbers   75%

2nd Dose     143,560              68.8% done                                                   52.8%

In Hospital

19-07-2021	4,567
18-07-2021	4,276
17-07-2021	4,174
16-07-2021	4,102
15-07-2021	3,990
14-07-2021	3,814
13-07-2021	3,636
12-07-2021	3,423

[RobNewman'sblisteringpace 25]

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

56 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

isn't the problem with that the issues with waning immunity for the elderly? I can appreciate and understand your approach but that then just plunges all this into winter where we have been made to understand it would be far worse to have this exit wave.

It's a tough one as anyone waiting for their second dose now should be low risk and the vast majority are choosing to gamble their health to have the taste of freedom (see nightclubs/football/wimbledon/Royal Albert Hall/ whatever mass gathering floats your boat)

For me, I'd let people get their 2nd dose 3+ weeks after their first.

I don't see the vaccine passport actually taking off in many settings bar travel either. Hopefully announcing it does at least shunt a few people on.

I already managed to convince a few of my mates to get jabbed by explaining facts and telling them there's this possibility...

If we are to believe the government boosters for the vulnerable will start in September anyway (separate discussion on immunity wanes and timescales - variant tweaks? )- yet I frankly struggle to believe that we can control this so called exit wave in exquisite detail (as opposed to the virus having a free to play make hay 'wave') to get us to true herd immunity before or during early autumn assuming the virus even plays 'nice' and doesn't decide to slip in another variant from up its spacious sleeves. Truth is the 'wave' is always very quick to rise and very slow to fall (see previous) so its frankly way too late already even if you could manage it -  to infect (and vaccinate some) of the remaining low hanging fruit in time (oddly the outdoor summer weather and schools out now slows down the summer wave anyway - giving the lie to the 'plan'). The wave is unlikely to 'peak until well into August given its latest fresh fuel.

Come the autumn then we will still have a large reservoir of virus munching its way through the population, working out how better to infect the vaccinated. To precis Whitty - 5,6,7,8 weeks "we may have to look again!"

So what will this August gain us.  My guess is lots of economic disruption, lot and lots of cases, 1000 plus hospital admissions a day (750 now ?), sadly 100 - 200 deaths a day as well,  yet fail to quash any autumn/winter 'wave'. It may well have seeded it!

In truth I think the government is trying to place some positive spin on a 'concerning ' situation as it fondles the panic button.

As the saying goes - failure to plan is planning to fail. They are guilty as charged.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

33 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

If we are to believe the government boosters for the vulnerable will start in September anyway (separate discussion on immunity wanes and timescales - variant tweaks? )- yet I frankly struggle to believe that we can control this so called exit wave in exquisite detail (as opposed to the virus having a free to play make hay 'wave') to get us to true herd immunity before or during early autumn assuming the virus even plays 'nice' and doesn't decide to slip in another variant from up its spacious sleeves. Truth is the 'wave' is always very quick to rise and very slow to fall (see previous) so its frankly way too late already even if you could manage it -  to infect (and vaccinate some) of the remaining low hanging fruit in time (oddly the outdoor summer weather and schools out now slows down the summer wave anyway - giving the lie to the 'plan'). The wave is unlikely to 'peak until well into August given its latest fresh fuel.

Come the autumn then we will still have a large reservoir of virus munching its way through the population, working out how better to infect the vaccinated. To precis Whitty - 5,6,7,8 weeks "we may have to look again!"

So what will this August gain us.  My guess is lots of economic disruption, lot and lots of cases, 1000 plus hospital admissions a day (750 now ?), sadly 100 - 200 deaths a day as well,  yet fail to quash any autumn/winter 'wave'. It may well have seeded it!

In truth I think the government is trying to place some positive spin on a 'concerning ' situation as it fondles the panic button.

As the saying goes - failure to plan is planning to fail. They are guilty as charged.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

certainly doesn't look like it was slow to fall here... Needless to say, we are playing a different game now against a vaccinable disease.

In a world of 9 billion susceptible people, I really don't see the next "big variant" coming from us. We are also running out of fully susceptible people by the day.

Indeed if there is suddenly a vaccine evading one then there's also the theory that it would have to vary so much it would render it way less deadly: “A change in the spike protein- which allows the coronavirus to enter and infect human cells- that is radical enough to make our vaccine completely ineffective would also, almost certainly, be so extreme as to make the virus non-functional.” -Oxford Team

perhaps that's what we actually want to happen...

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

7 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

certainly doesn't look like it was slow to fall here... Needless to say, we are playing a different game now against a vaccinable disease.

In a world of 9 billion susceptible people, I really don't see the next "big variant" coming from us. We are also running out of fully susceptible people by the day.

Indeed if there is suddenly a vaccine evading one then there's also the theory that it would have to vary so much it would render it way less deadly: “A change in the spike protein- which allows the coronavirus to enter and infect human cells- that is radical enough to make our vaccine completely ineffective would also, almost certainly, be so extreme as to make the virus non-functional.” -Oxford Team

perhaps that's what we actually want to happen...

It's what I would call a 'long tail'. FWHM is 2 or 3 months etc. (wave 2 - Dec - Jan).

I don't disagree with Sarah - but I'd rather not tempt fate. The virus gets trillions of goes at at it to get lucky.

[Essjayess 307]

There has been a lot of graphs posted in this thread recently  with projection lines or bars concerning the various stats that make up the Covid world...new cases, deaths, hospital admissions etc...frankly i dont care tuppence about projected  bars and how well or bad we are doing compared to projections...its only the day to day and week by week real figures that matter.

New cases...Scotland has had a small dip but frankly thats nothing compared to the UK, with every single area of England  with rising  daily cases still...even  in Lancashire, where the Delta variant first got hold. Norfolk and Suffolk have the fastest  new case rises, not surprising as it was the last area to really feel the Delta effect and has doubled in a week.

Admissions...rising steadily day by day, likely not any sign of a slowdown  never mind a decrease for a long time ahead.

Deaths...96 today, overall deaths are now really starting to rise at a  faster pace which is the most worrying thing.

There can be talk of how many are vaccinated, or that the kids are on their hols and many other things to try and put a positive or hopeful spin on the figures but truth is all three stat sectors are rising  faster and no one knows where or when they will peak but its not looking good. Much of what we do now individually is down to personal decisions, i for one will practice utmost caution and continue to follow the safety rules that were active in lockdowns...ive had for health reasons  to my family to accept that this is the normal in our lives now.

[Van wink 2,994]

On the rise locally and nationally on Zoe, no surprises herek

[CANARYKING 637]

96 deaths yesterday, how many do we need before another lockdown 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

11 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

96 deaths yesterday, how many do we need before another lockdown 

Unfortunately, based on what we already know of Johnson's attitude the number will have to be pretty enormous before he will even consider it.

And sadly those are only the Covid deaths but early, and in some cases avoidable, deaths will undoubtedly be rising amongst many other seriously ill patients - don't know about Norfolk but up here our huge teaching hospital is already 'overwhelmed' - it is rapidly being turned back to the state of last April\May when it was catering only for Covid and A&E, everybody else will soon be on hold again. Not only that, whilst they have more ventilators, PPE etc than last year they have even less staff now than last year - and they were seriously understaffed then so the situation is absolutely desperate (and dangerous) now.

[Well b back 3,199]

That’s their staycation f*****. I do genuinely feel story for families losing their holidays especially those with kids that have to isolate due to kids being put in isolation who were in the same year as a positive.

BREAKINGSir Keir Starmer self-isolating after positive family test

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is to self-isolate after one of his children tested positive, a spokesman says.

"One of Keir's children tested positive for Covid this lunchtime. In line with the rules, Keir and his family will now be self-isolating," they said.

"Keir was already doing daily tests and tested negative this morning. He will continue to take daily tests."

[ricardo 7,380]

National

44,104 - 73

rate of increase 35.8% (7 days)

lower than expected (schools breaking up perhaps???)

Local

Norwich infection rate up from  313.7  to 339.3 (3 patients in N&N)

Vax

1st Dose       39035                88.1% done                 Norwich numbers   75%

2nd Dose     161,279              69.1% done                                                   52.8%

In Hospital 20-07-2021             4,658 19-07-2021 4,599 18-07-2021 4,297 17-07-2021 4,188 16-07-2021 4,114 15-07-2021 3,999 14-07-2021 3,823 13-07-2021 3,644

[ricardo 7,380]

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

 

quelle surprise...

[Well b back 3,199]

16 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

quelle surprise...

Hi TJ

Our figures don’t seem to be showing these sorts of level, especially in new cases. If and I stress if their figures are correct and not exaggerated, the mRNA vaccines are holding up amazingly well. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi TJ

Our figures don’t seem to be showing these sorts of level, especially in new cases. If and I stress if their figures are correct and not exaggerated, the mRNA vaccines are holding up amazingly well. 

have we got our figures broken down like that? Are they testing asymptomatically to the level we do?

I suspect many of their mild/asymptomatic vaccinated cases may get missed

[Well b back 3,199]

19 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

have we got our figures broken down like that? Are they testing asymptomatically to the level we do?

I suspect many of their mild/asymptomatic vaccinated cases may get missed

Not sure TJ, those figures do seem to tie in with their trial results, but really would be amazing if they are correct. Would love to have our figures of positives split between mRNA vaccines and Oxford. 
Oxford clearly ( as a minimum ) does what it was made to do and protect from severe disease, but wouldn’t it be great to know if they are both as good at protecting from catching it.
To political so guess we will never know the answer.

[ricardo 7,380]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Not sure TJ, those figures do seem to tie in with their trial results, but really would be amazing if they are correct. Would love to have our figures of positives split between mRNA vaccines and Oxford. 
Oxford clearly ( as a minimum ) does what it was made to do and protect from severe disease, but wouldn’t it be great to know if they are both as good at protecting from catching it.
To political so guess we will never know the answer.

[Well b back 3,199]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Thanks Ricardo

 

Edited July 21, 2021 by Well b back

[Van wink 2,994]

29 minutes ago, ricardo said:

👍

[horsefly 4,296]

When, in the midst of a deadly pandemic, the government's inability to provide an effective test and trace system makes it more rational to delete the NHS app from your phone, then you have yet another measure of just how incompetent this government has been throughout this crisis (vaccine roll-out being the sole exception).

[Capt. Pants 4,221]

Don't forget there are 1000s of people self isolating because of the pingdemic and this useless Covid app. 

We're not looking at the true picture until we see the impact of; restrictions being lifted, the main UK holiday season and football stadiums full to the brim.

[CANARYKING 637]

Just now, Capt. Pants said:

Don't forget there are 1000s of people self isolating because of the pingdemic and this useless Covid app. 

We're not looking at the true picture until we see the impact of; restrictions being lifted, the main UK holiday season and football stadiums full to the brim.

If they are taking it off on 16/8 why wait, can’t see what a few days difference will make now ?

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

33 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Don't forget there are 1000s of people self isolating because of the pingdemic and this useless Covid app. 

We're not looking at the true picture until we see the impact of; restrictions being lifted, the main UK holiday season and football stadiums full to the brim.

 

32 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

If they are taking it off on 16/8 why wait, can’t see what a few days difference will make now ?

To be fair the app is doing EXACTLY what is was supposed to do. I think I heard a figure last night that 1 in 3 of those 'pinged' go on to develop Covid themselves - that's a terrifyingly large number.

In short don't shoot the app messenger - it's just trying to control the spread of Covid - shoot those that caused the mayhem in the first place by their total incompetence. 

Edited July 22, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Barbe bleu 818]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

To be fair the app is doing EXACTLY what is was supposed to do. 

Yes, the app is very efficiently and very effectively telling people who may have been in effective contact with a carrier that they may have the disease.This is the contact tracing everyone wanted and bemoaned did not exist.

Unfortunately the virus was always going to make up ground lost to lockdowns and unless we were hunkered down until Christmas  or were to make jabs compulsory efficient contact tracing was always going to result in lots of people getting a call or a ping.