Corona Virus main thread

[Aggy 752]

29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Lastly, I noted already some tube lines were closed today due to staff isolating. Funny sort of opening up closing down.

Ah yes, I forgot that the whole economy stops because two tube lines are closed in London.
 

Some people will isolate. Some sectors and companies will be affected. But isn’t it clear to anyone that the economy would be better off with some places open and some having to isolate, than having all closed?

Unless hospitals are going to be overwhelmed by having things open, why would you shut all of them to avoid some having to close? Bonkers.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Aggy

[Surfer 1,547]

There really is a head in the sand feeling about the above comments .... "freedom day" appears to be heading in the same direction as the "oven ready deal" - all political posturing and nothing good to come out of it... 

Edited July 17, 2021 by Surfer

[ricardo 7,349]

Utter piffle and a chart neatly cropped to avoid showing the accompanying fatalities.

Countries are at different stages at different times as anybody who has followed this will realise. 

 

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

I don’t think there’s any ‘could’ about it. We’re already this year seeing exactly that with norovirus, which is currently worse than it usually is at this time of the year. We’ve been told by multiple scientists, academics and doctors our immunity to all sorts of things will have reduced.

As does literally every other virus, and lots of non-viral things. Alcohol, sausages, cars. All take away from other NHS operations etc.

Again, there are lots of things that cause very nasty long term effects. Even “normal “ flu can result in life altering long term conditions. We can’t pick and choose which we think are worth bothering with.

I saw a comparison I quite liked the other day with speeding limits. Apparently (no idea if this was true or just for illustrative purposes) more pedestrians are killed after being hit by red and black cars than any other colour.

But we don’t say white cars can drive as fast as they want because they kill fewer people, and only red and black cars have to follow speed limits. We can’t say flu, pneumonia and other viruses only kill x thousand a year so we’ll do nothing, but covid kills y thousand a year so we’ll lock the country down.

It all has to come down to hospitals being overwhelmed. If you need urgent life saving treatment - can you get it? If not there’s a problem. If you can, then everything else is nothing we haven’t dealt with to some extent or another for decades. Delays to treatment, having to be transferred to a different hospital, the risk of long term illness, the risk of viral mutations, the risk of death even. 
 

Edit: The infections are only part of the story. No idea if they’re now on the turn - as you say, we will see. But even if they do, as long as hospitals don’t get overwhelmed, it is what it is.

Not disagreeing on your points. If you isolate any particular part of a text though then it places, by it's very nature, a firm border around it (as in any quoted text). It's of course impossible to post all of one's viewpoints too for a fuller perspective....or every post would be massive in length! So, Occam's Razor applies. And then, you can only try and be concise (which can be a challenge for me 😉).

Of course alcohol etc etc are also important to health outcomes. Of course it's about hospitalisation and we are discussing Covid. Needless to say other illnesses are important. It's hard to come up with a qualification for every sentence Aggy. Sometimes we need to be impressionist in posting rather than hyper realist.

Your car analogy is also a good one. And I believe a good metaphor (which is actually impressionistic - so I would tend to like it!).

I think you might be interested in the latest J Ward tweet (and thread comments). It contains some analysis on age groups, hospitalisation, football events effect and the effect of school holidays (note Scotland...as Ricardo's chart shows).

Anyway, offering it purely for interest without saying I fully endorse his view. Simply put, it's interesting.

 

Edited July 17, 2021 by sonyc

[Surfer 1,547]

Utter drivel eh? I prefer to look at the direction of that graph rather than ignore reality.

It at least argues for maintaining caution, masks indoors, social distancing and more vaccinations. 

 

[SwindonCanary 455]

 

[chicken 2,605]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Yes, seems about right. It will go through everyone in time. It will end up as a common cold but there will be casualties along the way. We can't  hide from it and it will nevet go away.

We have to be really careful about likening it to the common cold... it isn't the same at all.

We know that the protection from serious illness after both jabs is high 90's in percent. But it will still kill people.

Realistically a cold won't kill anyone without a compromised and very weak immune system.

Covid isn't going away, it won't become like a cold. It's more likely to become more of the flu - we'll lose people to it regularly unless they can successfully isolate it and prevent it from spreading to the point where it becomes another virus that only exists in laboratories. However, if the evidence can be found that it originated in an animal species, we'll never truly be safe as it could mutate with the animal species and then impact on us - which is how Covid-19 is believed to have spread.

[Bill 1,788]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

as long as hospitals don’t get overwhelmed, it is what it is.

That is what it comes down to.

A dead body does not occupy a hospital, or take up a bed, for long...................brutal as that is.

A covid patient does. And as there are pretty much finite NHS resources, then the imperative is to keep those particular numbers down.

It is absurd 'rightie' nonsense peddled by the cap doffers who spout that we cannot be locked down forever. Nonsense as what underpins that is, bluntly, a lie. No one is asking for restrictions to be indefinitely. That is a strawman put out by those who are losing on commercial rents etc.

No one asked for folk to go to the shelters permanently, and indefinitely during 1940. The expected rate of civilian injuries was expected to be unmanageable if no one 'sheltered'. In part, a reason kids were evacuated.

If the thought is that once doubled jabbed then you are safe (as possible) then why all the whining about removing all restrictions way before the vast majority are double jabbed. It smacks of the 'not too bright' beating the words of their betters, in the absurd delusion that they are showing a defiant mood toward danger

It was once known as stupidity.

 

[Well b back 3,190]

13 hours ago, Virtual reality said:

Common sense prevails.

 

Well Molly was clearly in the know. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57879730

[Capt. Pants 4,202]

Well it will go "finger licking good, or **** wipingly bad". I'll be removing the Covid App early August to make sure I don't get pinged to stop me going to the football 😉

[Tetteys Jig 830]

The Boris and Rishi trying to skip quarantine is peak pandemic... what an absolute farce it all is 😆😆😆

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

17 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

The Boris and Rishi trying to skip quarantine is peak pandemic... what an absolute farce it all is 😆😆😆

If I knew better I wouldn't be surprised to hear that it was resigning matter for Sage SPI-B. U turn or we go - en-masse.

[horsefly 4,287]

Let's be honest, Johnson will love the fact he gets to self-isolate. It's a dream come true for the laziest "politician" ever to be PM.

[Well b back 3,190]

2 hours ago, Capt. Pants said:

Well it will go "finger licking good, or **** wipingly bad". I'll be removing the Covid App early August to make sure I don't get pinged to stop me going to the football 😉

Unfortunately last nights little episode will persuade the undecided. I come out of Isolation Thursday, my app will now be turned off. 

I understand a lot of parents have now pulled their kids out of school for the last few days of term as a note to isolate will disrupt their holiday plans.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,182]

On top of this morning's isolation fiasco, we now have Operation Brock being started up to control traffic to a country that people are unlikely to visit as they have to isolate when they return, because the covid figures for that country include some concerning figures generated not by the mainland, but an island thousands of miles away

What the hell is going on in the UK?

[sonyc 5,492]

For folk who like graphs here are a selection of indicators that provide an overview:

[Surfer 1,547]

Those first two charts give the lie to "this is under control, we need to open everything up" ... it's not under control and the UK has the worst performance in Europe. The case loads are still increasing and almost equal the post-Christmas / New Year peak, yet NOW we are going to take any remaining controls away and rely on "personal responsibility"???

Edited July 18, 2021 by Surfer

[ricardo 7,349]

National

48,161 - 25

rate of increase 43% (7 days)

Local

Norwich infection rate up from  238.3 to 261.8 (3 patients in N&N)

Vax

1st Dose       67,217                87.9% done                 Norwich numbers   74.9%

2nd Dose     225,214              68.3% done                                                   52.5%

Patients in Hospital

15-07-2021	3,964
14-07-2021	3,801
13-07-2021	3,626
12-07-2021	3,416
11-07-2021	3,145
10-07-2021	3,002
09-07-2021	2,909
08-07-2021	2,740

[Barbe bleu 816]

Id love to know why there is such low take up in the younger age groups. Is it the side effects stories?

35 year olds have had two months to get the first jab but 1 in 3 had something better to do.  1 in 5 of those 45-49 not bothering in over 3 months is astounding.

[ricardo 7,349]

Makes a nonsense of the idea we can wait for everyone to be double jabbed. There are a large number who just don't  seem bothered about getting jabbed at all.

[1902 1,167]

22 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Id love to know why there is such low take up in the younger age groups. Is it the side effects stories?

35 year olds have had two months to get the first jab but 1 in 3 had something better to do.  1 in 5 of those 45-49 not bothering in over 3 months is astounding.

As I understand it, your chance of accepting a vaccine invite is reduced by a few factors but the two most obvious links are that you are less likely to be vaccinated if:

1.  You get your news primarily from social media. 

2. You don't feel personally at risk. 

Both of these are more likely to be true if you are younger.

 

[1902 1,167]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Makes a nonsense of the idea we can wait for everyone to be double jabbed. There are a large number who just don't  seem bothered about getting jabbed at all.

This was inevitable as restrictions were lifted, because it reduced the immediacy of the situation. Covid feels almost done for many people because their lives have been returning to something resembling normal. It's often inertia not hesitancy that stops people getting vaccinated.

[sonyc 5,492]

55 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Id love to know why there is such low take up in the younger age groups. Is it the side effects stories?

35 year olds have had two months to get the first jab but 1 in 3 had something better to do.  1 in 5 of those 45-49 not bothering in over 3 months is astounding.

A solution BB for younger people? See second post by Burns Murdoch.

Edited July 18, 2021 by sonyc

[Upo 91]

On 17/07/2021 at 22:12, Well b back said:

I wondered about this Sonyc, I had 2 jabs ( Pfizer ) early on and COVID in the beginning of December, which would have likely been ( I really apologise but I can’t remember the Latin name for it ) the variant that was first spotted in Kent. In the last few days again as I think you will be aware I was exposed heavily to Delta ie I had three people in the car for about 6 hours that tested positive for COVID ( so logically Delta ). On that Sunday we also spent time close to each other on tubes, hugging when we scored ect. On the Monday again I had 2 of them in the car and we went for a meal in a restaurant. When we get home one tested positive. On the Tuesday ( although with some PPE this time ) I took them to the test site and both had a positive PCR.

Those with Pfizer 2 doses all seem ok, but it got me wondering. As I was so exposed did my body have to have a fight to kill off any Delta that made its way into me ? Am I know filled with immunity to Delta as well, is being exposed to it to that extreme the same as actually testing positive. Would love to know.

You were probably infected but it was asymptomatic - like majority of fully vaxxed. I hope you didn't hang around any unvaxxed people - or any people whatsoever - because you are able to transmit the virus to others and never know about it.

[Barbe bleu 816]

8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

A solution BB for younger people? See second post by Burns Murdoch.

Thats a hell of a graph. 200k up to 1.4 million almost literally overnight.

Mind you in the 3 weeks until those vaccines kick in we'll have around the same number of people doing it the hard way!

 

[Upo 91]

On 17/07/2021 at 22:16, ricardo said:

The best thing you can do is to stop worrying about it. You have taken all the sensible precautions and been double jabbed, you can do no more.

No the best thing is to ask for advice if unsure - though this may not be correct venue for it - and in case of massive exposure assume you have contracted the virus regardless of vaxx status and follow proper procedures.

[Upo 91]

On 17/07/2021 at 23:27, Barbe bleu said:

Short answer, I dunno.

Medium answer, I'm not sure any can know for sure

Longer answer, this raises important questions about vaccine design and re-infection.   We hear a lot about vaccine escape and breakthrough stats but less about reinfections and that is, or should be, surprising.

When we get the thing the natural way it's the immune cells on the membranes in the respiratory tract that come into action first.   Next time we see the same thing these should be ready to go.  If we have enough antibodies of the right shape at the membranes the virus is neutralised before it gets in.

 There's a question about whether an injected vaccine can do anything to help in this critical phase or whether it solely helps us get ahead in the arms race that follows infection.  I imagine somewhere in the world some very  brilliant people are trying to develop a nasal spray that mimics natural infection to complement an injection. thereby each makes up for the limitations of the other.

 

Vaccine induced immunity is stronger than infection derived "immunity". It is not even close.

[Herman 9,717]

Happy freedom day everyone. What could possibly go wrong??

[cambridgeshire canary 6,680]

42 minutes ago, Herman said:

Happy freedom day everyone. What could possibly go wrong??

'Wear a mask but you don't have to wear a mask social distance but you don't have to social distance..'

[Barbe bleu 816]

9 hours ago, Upo said:

Vaccine induced immunity is stronger than infection derived "immunity". It is not even close.

Easy to say, but what are the actual statistics?

Two things i would like to see, comparative statistics of disease/infection after vaccine and after prior infection.

I'd like to see a comparative paper on mucus IgA adoption and adaptation as this immune component is key, as far as I can tell, to prevention of infection.

I dont suppose you came across any of these in your reading did you?

I'm not putting a downer on the vaccines, they are astonishing -  but as we move into planning for next year and we start to look back for lessons we need to be more nuanced in our approaches.