Corona Virus main thread

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

You only had to look at the prevalence map of Norfolk by Zoe a day or so ago to see that something is wrong with it.

If you read what’s said on the app it’s very clear that local areas can have distortions especially where the sample size is small, and I’d guess NNorfolk ticks that box. Probably if the ONS data were available with the same level of detail, exactly the same sort of regional oddities might crop up.

 

Truth is we are working with very incomplete data and all sources have weaknesses, it’s important not to jump to conclusions where one data source goes against what you’re expecting and simply argue it’s incorrect- that’s the classic failure, repeated often in history, where people seize on info that confirms their expectations and explain away contradictory reports.

 

At the moment we’re expecting new case numbers to rise pretty sharply for at least the next few weeks, and they had been going up as expected. Now the Zoe app shows them flattening since the date covered by the last ONS numbers and the daily positive tests have also not been climbing as fast as expected.

 

we need to look at this all carefully and see where it goes from here, I’m hoping they’re checking the app to see if there is any reason to think it’s going off track . It doesn’t mean we should instantly assume things are going in the right direction but equally, to dismiss this data because it doesn’t fit our expectations is incorrect - it’s too early to say.

[ricardo 7,380]

Comparing the waves (Hospitalisations.

 

[Well b back 3,198]

So the vaccine minister this morning ‘ You will be expected to wear a mask in an indoor setting ‘. 
Well done it won’t be law so spare a thought for those that will be verbally and physically abused because of such mixed messages. 
 

On other news 50% of 18 - 24 refusing the vaccine, should have read the pink un again 2 - 3 months ago, we stated to get the younger vaxed we will need vaccine passports for pubs and holidays, that is now being suggested.

The gap between doses likely to come down to 4 weeks. Just a shame in his interview today the vaccine minister did not understand the efficacy data for Oxford and Pfizer when he said 8 weeks was the best wait period, we are using Pfizer matey that’s Oxford.

 

[ricardo 7,380]

ZOE App numbers completely stalled.

 

[sonyc 5,508]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

ZOE App numbers completely stalled.

 

Think it looks to have reached a plateau nationally ....but look at our local picture. And Bradford wasn't even listed as one of the top 65 areas of rapid increase past week. It is possibly about to change.

Clearly, it is a very regional picture but these national sporting events with massive (& vocal) crowds will change the national scene in 2 weeks time.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

22 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

If you read what’s said on the app it’s very clear that local areas can have distortions especially where the sample size is small, and I’d guess NNorfolk ticks that box. Probably if the ONS data were available with the same level of detail, exactly the same sort of regional oddities might crop up.

 

Truth is we are working with very incomplete data and all sources have weaknesses, it’s important not to jump to conclusions where one data source goes against what you’re expecting and simply argue it’s incorrect- that’s the classic failure, repeated often in history, where people seize on info that confirms their expectations and explain away contradictory reports.

 

At the moment we’re expecting new case numbers to rise pretty sharply for at least the next few weeks, and they had been going up as expected. Now the Zoe app shows them flattening since the date covered by the last ONS numbers and the daily positive tests have also not been climbing as fast as expected.

 

we need to look at this all carefully and see where it goes from here, I’m hoping they’re checking the app to see if there is any reason to think it’s going off track . It doesn’t mean we should instantly assume things are going in the right direction but equally, to dismiss this data because it doesn’t fit our expectations is incorrect - it’s too early to say.

I agree with much of this here and fully support Zoe.

However, it is still a model and subject to systemic errors and assumptions hence the need to keep it 'calibrated' to the real world ONS data (with it's own confidence limits).

Bottom line is the N.Norfolk number looks very wrong  - its a hotspot whereas in reality it appears elsewhere about  the safest place in England. Is Zoe right or is there an error somewhere - could even be a data input typo, perhaps Gresham schools has 100's of positives or a wayward OAP super spreader visited Wiveton several times. There needs to be an explanation to give one confidence (an artificial high here is likely balanced by an artificial low elsewhere etc).

My guess is that currently with the virus spreading mainly in the under 25s and unvaccinated 'hesitant' I guess the Zoe reporting is struggling to reliably pick that up.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[ricardo 7,380]

National

31772 - 26

rate of increase continues to drop.

Local

Norwich infection rate up from  121.6 to 136.6

Vax

1st Dose     93,763                87.1% done                 Norwich numbers   74.1%

2nd Dose     211,446              66% done                                                   50.2%

Concerning that Norwich numbers still well behind UK and Norfolk averages

 

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days (no update since 8th)

08-07-2021           2,731 07-07-2021 2,648 06-07-2021 2,455 05-07-2021 2,335 04-07-2021 2,153 03-07-2021 2,035 02-07-2021 1,992 01-07-2021 1,916

[CANARYKING 637]

Question: is the 30,000 per day new cases those reported? Surely there could be at least the same amount of people who have not reported a positive?

[ricardo 7,380]

1 minute ago, CANARYKING said:

Question: is the 30,000 per day new cases those reported? Surely there could be at least the same amount of people who have not reported a positive?

You would have to consult a clairvoyant. The Government site can only report the data it is given.

Over 1.1 million tests everyday.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

36 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Question: is the 30,000 per day new cases those reported? Surely there could be at least the same amount of people who have not reported a positive?

I think these are just confirmed PCR tests so not the LFT alone. As its notifiable it's probably a solid number for those that bother to get formally  tested. As ever ONS gives the true prevalence.

[Upo 91]

On 10/07/2021 at 13:11, sonyc said:

I found this analysis to be interesting as he models various scenarios (forecasts about 12,000 in hospital at peak) but he offers of qualifications too. He is watching closely for trends over the next few days.

A thread of about 14/15 points if you read through. John Burns Murdoch retweeted this as a recommended read.

 

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1412182736572399623?s=19

(No idea why this site is acting up again today...so adding link again!)

 

Read it. I disagree with his basic conclusions, because weirdly he shrugs off case number impact on probability of new VOC appearing, he ignores early peak's effect on health care staff attrition (burnout/ptsd/illness) rate when they get no break plus no time to recruit/train new staff, ignores impact of postponing normal health care appointments/surgeries to divert resources to acute covid-19 care; people will die of chronic non-communicable diseases in higher numbers; people will be disabled without elective surgeries/interventions...

But the worst fatal error he makes is the same "mitigationists"/infection derived flock immunity promoters made early on (and continue to make) is this:

Uncertainty supports postponing outcomes: delaying cases to later date enables more research, more information, more knowledge, more learning to be done. Decisionmakers will be given better tools to prevent "inevitable" outcomes. Hope that leverages time turns uncertainty into an ally over long term.

He raises very good points too. I'm sure his motives are good. It's just that he fails the good judgment test.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Upo

[Upo 91]

We are literally talking about a month or two at most, after which vaccination rate will be much higher and modest measures will keep the infections down. UK is (was) in the fortunate position of nearly achieving herd immunity via vaxxes. Not anymore. Others don't even get to choose:

[Upo 91]

On 10/07/2021 at 11:32, Well b back said:

The discrepancy’s could well be the fact that the Delta symptoms are totally different and have not been publicised. If you have most of the delta symptoms and try to book a test, you would be told you are not eligible for a test. The ons is a random test. I maybe mistaken but when the ons figures were going down and suddenly being used on here it was challenged that they were only being used because they suited. Now they are going up they are no longer the accurate view.

This sounds reasonable. Partially vaxxed and young people also have more symptomless/mild cases which leads to understating actual case numbers. Psychologically the relief from lifting restrictions will lead to behavioral changes that are cumbersome to reverse: Disappointment is difficult to deal with.

Basically this would show up as understating case count and exaggerating share of serious cases. Good, right? No. Cases drive variants.

Huge number of low probability means large numbers:

[Well b back 3,198]

Well we will soon see what lies ahead for football in the COVID stakes. I was at Wembley yesterday. I have never seen anything like it. There were hundreds of thousands present without tickets. Maybe one in 50 wore a mask. Every tube was packed going in and out for around 10 hours, anyone with a mask looked out of place. Social distancing if you can imagine was in a major crush. Pubs were so packed they were being closed down by the police, but that was the only action taken, there were no ticket checks until you got to the steps. Inside Wembley as well thousands it seemed in without tickets.
It was an experiment in part of the group of experiments, let’s hope it works.

[Well b back 3,198]

I have some good pictures but this was Wembley way, which went back like this ( all around the ground ) for about a mile. This was the scene for around 10 hours. This is today’s spot the mask competition.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Well b back

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

41 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I have some good pictures but this was Wembley way, which went back like this ( all around the ground ) for about a mile. This was the scene for around 10 hours. This is today’s spot the mask competition.

How many have been vaccinated?

[ricardo 7,380]

ZOE continues to remain static.

[CANARYKING 637]

Anybody guess what the protocols will be for attending CR ? Double jabbed be enough to get in, or double jabbed AND negative test ? What about those with single jab or none at all ?

[Well b back 3,198]

43 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Anybody guess what the protocols will be for attending CR ? Double jabbed be enough to get in, or double jabbed AND negative test ? What about those with single jab or none at all ?

Negative test is a myth, just pretend to do a LF test and put it on as negative.

[ricardo 7,380]

43 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Anybody guess what the protocols will be for attending CR ? Double jabbed be enough to get in, or double jabbed AND negative test ? What about those with single jab or none at all ?

Full house.

Anyone caught coughing and sneezing will be thrown in the river.

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Negative test is a myth, just pretend to do a LF test and put it on as negative.

I hate to say this but you're right. As a passport to events they as currently undertaken they are worse than useless - dangerous in fact.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

29 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Negative test is a myth, just pretend to do a LF test and put it on as negative.

apparently there's some app called certific that may be used to deal with that where you have to video verify you did the test...

[Well b back 3,198]

We are now part of Boris experiment.

Our son tested negative yesterday but positive today, so he 99% certain caught it in or around Wembley Wednesday. The rest of the household are double vaccinated ( but will still have to isolate ) so we will see if the vaccines hold up.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Full house.

Anyone caught coughing and sneezing will be thrown in the river.

What about the little card they gave us instead of a cup of tea? Will that be more important than a proper passport.

[ricardo 7,380]

National

34,471 - 6

rate of increase static

Local

Norwich infection rate up from  136.6 to 175.7 a big increase over the weekend.

Vax

1st Dose     42,000                87.2% done                 Norwich numbers   74.1%

2nd Dose     107,620              66.2% done                                                   50.3%

Slow down due to footy perhaps?

 

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days (no update since 8th)

08-07-2021           2,731 07-07-2021 2,648 06-07-2021 2,455 05-07-2021 2,335 04-07-2021 2,153 03-07-2021 2,035 02-07-2021 1,992 01-07-2021 1,916

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

ZOE continues to remain static.

Norwich on the up but overall figures static.

[ricardo 7,380]

26 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Norwich on the up but overall figures static.

Quite poor vax numbers in the City compared with the rest of the county. UEA area worst of all.

Nationally Scotland falling, North West peaking so good news.

Edited July 12, 2021 by ricardo

[SteveN8458 64]

15 hours ago, Well b back said:

We are now part of Boris experiment.

Our son tested negative yesterday but positive today, so he 99% certain caught it in or around Wembley Wednesday. The rest of the household are double vaccinated ( but will still have to isolate ) so we will see if the vaccines hold up.

Fingers crossed for you all WBB.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

16 hours ago, ricardo said:

Quite poor vax numbers in the City compared with the rest of the county. UEA area worst of all.

Nationally Scotland falling, North West peaking so good news.

is some of this due to lots of students being registered around UEA but then getting vaccinated back home? Or if it is mainly students, they've not been eligible for the vaccine for long.

Edited July 13, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[Van wink 2,994]

16 hours ago, ricardo said:

Quite poor vax numbers in the City compared with the rest of the county. UEA area worst of all.

Nationally Scotland falling, North West peaking so good news.

Outbreak at a rather well to do school