Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,200]

3 minutes ago, kirku said:

Still don't understand what inalienable freedom is being trampled upon by mandating people wear a mask on a train or in a supermarket

We are yet to see if businesses such as these will relax the mask wearing for entry to their premises straight away. 

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

21 minutes ago, Well b back said:

We are yet to see if businesses such as these will relax the mask wearing for entry to their premises straight away. 

I suspect outside hospitality many a business with public facing staff might prefer to defer to staff sensitivities / wishes! Visit the doctor -wear a mask, go to the supermarket - wear a mask,  go on a  bus/train - wear a mask etc. or it's Shanks's pony.

[ricardo 7,384]

46 minutes ago, kirku said:

Still don't understand what inalienable freedom is being trampled upon by mandating people wear a mask on a train or in a supermarket

Plenty in the Castle Mall this morning, almost 100 percent mask wearing. I don't see a problem, most will carry on wearing them in crowded indoor setting. 

Personally I think they have very limited value but I'm content to follow the crowd in this if only out of courtesy to others.

[BroadstairsR 2,159]

26 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Plenty in the Castle Mall this morning, almost 100 percent mask wearing. I don't see a problem, most will carry on wearing them in crowded indoor setting. 

Personally I think they have very limited value but I'm content to follow the crowd in this if only out of courtesy to others.

Apparently some are more effective than others. There was one brand, I've forgotten the name, that was touted in the nationals as being the most effective. Boots sold out of those within hours.

You would have thought by now that some enterprising businessman would have done the necessary research and come up with their own homemade and highly effective alternative to all these blue Chinese made things that are supposedly quite useless.

By definition anything that covers the mouth inhibits spread .... some better than others it seems.

Edited July 6, 2021 by BroadstairsR

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Plenty in the Castle Mall this morning, almost 100 percent mask wearing. I don't see a problem, most will carry on wearing them in crowded indoor setting. 

Personally I think they have very limited value but I'm content to follow the crowd in this if only out of courtesy to others.

Trouble is, I think the sensible and courteous are in the main from the double vaccinated generations. Those who will abandon mask wearing may well be the ones to spread.

I must admit I am surprised that as someone who had to shield initially, you have quite a liberal attitude to easing of measures.

[Aggy 754]

The “petri dish” argument I just struggle with. Why is it any different to any other year? We all know “normal” flu mutates quicker than covid. And we only ever vaccinate a far smaller proportion of people against flu than we have already done against covid. So normal year = quicker-mutating deadly infection spreading around a population with significantly fewer people vaccinated.

I also struggle with the zero covid crew’s  “callous disregard for life” nonsense. Again, why is it any different to any other year? Thousands die every year from infectious diseases - tens of thousands if we ‘guess’ the wrong strand of flu to vaccinate against. Why didn’t the same people who are moaning about a callous disregard of life re covid care about the hundreds of thousands of people who have died from other infectious diseases during their lifetimes? 

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Aggy

[Surfer 1,547]

A "callous disregard for life", needs to be measured against the facts... equally so does ending lockdown. 

Even Piers Morgan gets that.... (and yes I do know the phrase "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics") 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Surfer

[ricardo 7,384]

National

28773 -  37

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 86.8 to 97.5

Vax

1st Dose     76,962

2nd Dose     147,814

first doses running up against the vax reluctant by the look of things

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

04-07-2021	2,140
03-07-2021	2,022
02-07-2021	1,979
01-07-2021	1,907
30-06-2021	1,799
29-06-2021	1,726
28-06-2021	1,726

[Aggy 754]

20 minutes ago, Surfer said:

A "callous disregard for life", needs to be measured against the facts... equally so does ending lockdown. 

Even Piers Morgan gets that.... (and yes I do know the phrase "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics") 

I think they’re very different arguments.

The argument about timings is predominantly one (from most sensible people at least) focussed around avoiding hospitals being overwhelmed. I might not agree with many, and I might think “the science” doesn’t warrant any further delay, but I can at least see the logic behind arguments suggesting we wait for more vaccines to reduce even further the chance of hospitals being overwhelmed.

The argument about a ‘callous disregard for life’ though is just logically flawed. It isn’t about hospitals being overwhelmed and only works if you assume nobody has ever died from any infectious disease other than covid. People making such a statement either have to believe we have lived our entire lives with a callous disregard for life or they’re just talking nonsense.

[ricardo 7,384]

[Surfer 1,547]

Someones data is in conflict ... 

[ricardo 7,384]

3 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Trouble is, I think the sensible and courteous are in the main from the double vaccinated generations. Those who will abandon mask wearing may well be the ones to spread.

I must admit I am surprised that as someone who had to shield initially, you have quite a liberal attitude to easing of measures.

I can't do anymore than I've done already, sheltered at the dangerous time and double vaxed at earliest opportunity. I realise nothing is guaranteed so I will continue to avoid crowded indoor situations but time to get on with life, it's running out fast.

We are running up against the vax reluctant now, we can't close forever. Those who refuse the vaccine will have to live with that decision.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

14 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I can't do anymore than I've done already, sheltered at the dangerous time and double vaxed at earliest opportunity. I realise nothing is guaranteed so I will continue to avoid crowded indoor situations but time to get on with life, it's running out fast.

We are running up against the vax reluctant now, we can't close forever. Those who refuse the vaccine will have to live with that decision.

But just maybe, and its only a conversation piece, the new getting on with life may carry restrictions.

I know it isn't the same but remember when seat belts were made mandatory. There were so many reasons thrown up as to why not to wear them. Now its a boot command as soon as you get in a car.

It seems to me the young wouldn't have chosen en masse to be vaxed if it weren't for the threat of restrictions if you aren't. And they are the ones likely to be around in the future when similar things happen.

[ricardo 7,384]

There are 53 million eligible for jabs now and 46 million have had at least one. There is no supply shortage but we are obviously running up against a demand shortage which can only be due to vaccine (refusal/hesitancy). I expect we will struggle up to around 48 million by the 19th July so it looks like there will always be around 10% unvaxed. At some stage, in a free society, you have to allow people to make their own decisions.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 hours ago, Surfer said:

Someones data is in conflict ... 

alarmist and with no context... here's a better picture of the state of affairs.

Daily hospitalisations and beds full are increasing, allbeit at a much lower rate than the last 2 waves thanks to less severe cases (younger people that are less protected by vaccines) being admitted.

If we hit the same level of daily admissions as the last 2 waves then the "Beds full" column would still be far less than their peaks (5k vs 20/30k).

Of course if daily admissions went further up then we would eventually hit 20/30k in hospital and be in a real tough spot but we were at 25k a day cases already (some time for them to turn to hospitalisations) meaning it would take a hell of a lot of daily case numbers to put the NHS under anywhere near the same pressures as before at current trajectories.

I'd estimate we would need to get up to 250k+ a day cases before I'd start to worry but I guess we'll see... where it all tops out is the trillion dollar question. I dread to think how bad it would be without these amazing vaccines. Thankfully soon, everyone over 50 and vulnerable (who has chosen to) will be double jabbed which will massively help hospital numbers further.

Delaying things until winter might just exacerbate the exit wave to one unmanageable for the NHS given the other pressures they come under most winters even pre covid.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[Indy 3,297]

33 minutes ago, ricardo said:

There are 53 million eligible for jabs now and 46 million have had at least one. There is no supply shortage but we are obviously running up against a demand shortage which can only be due to vaccine (refusal/hesitancy). I expect we will struggle up to around 48 million by the 19th July so it looks like there will always be around 10% unvaxed. At some stage, in a free society, you have to allow people to make their own decisions.

That’s true, but I would imagine there’s going be a portion of those not taking up the vaccines who will have caught or will catch Covid at some point so the figures of those with some form of protection going into the winter might be higher.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

 

Delaying things until winter might just exacerbate the exit wave to one unmanageable for the NHS given the other pressures they come under most winters even pre covid.

 

Where is the term "exit wave" coming from TJ. The Spanish flu pandemic and  epidemiological theory may suggest three waves is the norm but we have never experienced a pandemic where vaccination has played such a significant role, in certain parts of the world at least. We are on new ground here, there are new variables which undoubtedly will change the dynamics of this pandemic. Nobody can truly predict this so I think the term "exit wave" is a bit premature? Interested in your view?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

40 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Where is the term "exit wave" coming from TJ. The Spanish flu pandemic and  epidemiological theory may suggest three waves is the norm but we have never experienced a pandemic where vaccination has played such a significant role, in certain parts of the world at least. We are on new ground here, there are new variables which undoubtedly will change the dynamics of this pandemic. Nobody can truly predict this so I think the term "exit wave" is a bit premature? Interested in your view?

Well there are some people who either can't or won't get vaccinated and we can't live with restrictions forever so at some point before we hit a state of equilibrium to endemic state there will be a bump in cases while it burns through viable hosts. New variants and waning immunity will gradually move the goalposts like they do with flu every year and that's where we will have to manage the virus long term in a sustainable way.

Since you mention the Spanish flu pandemic, there was indeed an "exit wave" but then there are still to this day cases of it since its now one of the many endemic flus and viruses that are about that we can treat and vaccinate against.

I guess the government's dilemma is that your choice for "taking this hit" is either now, next spring after managing through winter or never at all at huge cost to society.

When you look at 1918, we allowed huge numbers of people to die from this that would now be avoidable through better ways society can adapt but there's a balance to be struck. The one thing the 1918 pandemic did was end when we couldn't fight it anymore at the cost of millions of lives but it was all very drastic and very quick.

Some people act like there are no consequences to NPIs and we should continue to use them unconditionally until we get to zero cases of covid or getting r to 1 and just carrying on in a state of purgatory with significant restrictions even if it isn't full lockdown. The problem with delta is this becomes a harder state to accept and the likes of Vietnam are now struggling to contain after successfully holding off the original strain and alpha. Eventually it does become a bit of a "1 way or the other" decision. There is no more "just wait a few more weeks" any more as it won't really make much of a difference.

I'll leave more detailed explanation to people more qualified than me.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

17 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Well there are some people who either can't or won't get vaccinated and we can't live with restrictions forever so at some point before we hit a state of equilibrium to endemic state there will be a bump in cases while it burns through viable hosts. New variants and waning immunity will gradually move the goalposts like they do with flu every year and that's where we will have to manage the virus long term in a sustainable way.

Since you mention the Spanish flu pandemic, there was indeed an "exit wave" but then there are still to this day cases of it since its now one of the many endemic flus and viruses that are about that we can treat and vaccinate against.

I guess the government's dilemma is that your choice for "taking this hit" is either now, next spring after managing through winter or never at all at huge cost to society.

When you look at 1918, we allowed huge numbers of people to die from this that would now be avoidable through better ways society can adapt but there's a balance to be struck. The one thing the 1918 pandemic did was end when we couldn't fight it anymore at the cost of millions of lives but it was all very drastic and very quick.

Some people act like there are no consequences to NPIs and we should continue to use them unconditionally until we get to zero cases of covid or getting r to 1 and just carrying on in a state of purgatory with significant restrictions even if it isn't full lockdown. The problem with delta is this becomes a harder state to accept and the likes of Vietnam are now struggling to contain after successfully holding off the original strain and alpha. Eventually it does become a bit of a "1 way or the other" decision. There is no more "just wait a few more weeks" any more as it won't really make much of a difference.

I'll leave more detailed explanation to people more qualified than me.

Don't forget we didn't have an NHS in 1918.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Don't forget we didn't have an NHS in 1918.

so literally their only alternative would have been distancing and masks for potentially several decades

[Essjayess 307]

11 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

To be honest CM Germany have not caught up to the UK simply because of the vast difference in deaths  in 2020, but if you  take deaths this year...from Jan 1st 2021,  Germany have have recorded 57k Covid deaths and UK 53k...so its pretty much been equal this year.

Overall there so many factors  determining why each nation records their  amount of deaths..all we do is look at a complete nation listing such as Worldometer or John Hopkins and compare the differences..but that does not tell us the whys and wherefores..the differences are vast and so are the reasons so its never easy to conclude anything...not even from one nation never mind  more than 200. The only winner is Covid, thats all we can say.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GirlInOldSchoo2/status/1412302233841147908

this puts into words what my views on all this are better than I could.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GirlInOldSchoo2/status/1412302233841147908

this puts into words what my views on all this are better than I could.

Sympathy  with much of that TJ and thanks for previous reply. I was interested In where the term “exit wave” had come from, did you pick it up from an article somewhere or is it a term you came up with.

 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Sympathy  with much of that TJ and thanks for previous reply. I was interested In where the term “exit wave” had come from, did you pick it up from an article somewhere or is it a term you came up with.

 

I think it's been talked about throughout 2021 since the roadmap was first considered. Also seen it mentioned with New Zealands strategy to reintegrate with the world.

[sonyc 5,510]

13 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GirlInOldSchoo2/status/1412302233841147908

this puts into words what my views on all this are better than I could.

Interesting insight in that tweet, however your post (two back in reply to VW) is one of the best summaries I've read- being a sober and I believe realistic assessment of where we are. Also interesting is your comparison with the 1918 epidemic. A "state of purgatory" is also very pertinent to the choices we have.

It's uncomfortable but so can life be for people with other health conditions they live with.  We just have to hope the Sarah Gilberts' of this world can manage to be a step ahead.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Interesting insight in that tweet, however your post (two back in reply to VW) is one of the best summaries I've read- being a sober and I believe realistic assessment of where we are. Also interesting is your comparison with the 1918 epidemic. A "state of purgatory" is also very pertinent to the choices we have.

It's uncomfortable but so can life be for people with other health conditions they live with.  We just have to hope the Sarah Gilberts' of this world can manage to be a step ahead.

absolutely right about Sarah Gilbert. Note she was happy to take her place in a packed out centre court so... I haven't heard much by way of new therapies and treatments recently.

On the other side of things "literally" as well funnily enough, here's New Zealands dilemma:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125662926/covid19-government-considers-permanent-miq-facility-dismisses-uks-decision-to-live-with-covid

In many ways, fair play to them and just how well they have managed to keep the virus out. Even they acknowledge that good things will eventually come to an end and the best they can do is vaccinate as many people as they can and then carefully manage their border situation until they hit an equilibrium.

I suspect that this pandemic will be a bit of a lingerer for several years yet with plenty of twists and turns... Another interesting one is how China move from here... 1 billion people essentially segregated from the rest of the world. Lad I know who has been at school over here is off back for summer and has essentially a 1 month quarantine before he's allowed to freely roam back amongst the general population.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[Van wink 2,994]

33 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I think it's been talked about throughout 2021 since the roadmap was first considered. Also seen it mentioned with New Zealands strategy to reintegrate with the world.

Cheers. It’s an interesting term which I thought implied that the third wave will be the final wave, as I said I think the Spanish flu outbreak is a classic pandemic in many ways and is used (it certainly was in my day) at Uni when you study epidemiology: My point was only a small one but it was just to say that this pandemic may well not behave in a “classical” way because of the rapid introduction of, for now, effective vaccine. That so far has been a huge positive but in the final analysis we may end up with a situation where the virus gets it’s victory by repeated waves of resistant strains that eventually burn out the dry tinder. Just a thought and no evidence to support this theory atm. 👍

[Tetteys Jig 830]

4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Cheers. It’s an interesting term which I thought implied that the third wave will be the final wave, as I said I think the Spanish flu outbreak is a classic pandemic in many ways and is used (it certainly was in my day) at Uni when you study epidemiology: My point was only a small one but it was just to say that this pandemic may well not behave in a “classical” way because of the rapid introduction of, for now, effective vaccine. That so far has been a huge positive but in the final analysis we may end up with a situation where the virus gets it’s victory by repeated waves of resistant strains that eventually burn out the dry tinder. Just a thought and no evidence to support this theory atm. 👍

I'd say the same about continued use of NPI's.

The good thing about vaccines and even about natural infection immunity is that it appears to at least leave a significant amount of memory cell immunity around for a long time. Even if it took me 3 years to finally get Covid, whilst I might get slightly sick, the "instructions" that my pfizer jabs left me would kick in and combat the virus. Clearly this works to differing levels depending on the person and many attributes such as how healthy they are.

I find it fascinating that many wanted to turn the Andrew Marr story into such a negative and the stories about asymptomatic care home outbreaks. If anything, they show just how incredible the vaccines are. Marr was perfect pickings for Covid to really do some damage to given his age and health problems yet he avoided a serious case.

I believe Sarah Gilbert basically said that the end game would be turning this damned virus into a common cold type thing rather than elimination. It will take a while for the narrative to kick in but it eventually will.

I'm scared that if we had another 1918 type pandemic we would do the distancing and masks approach for several years to try stop it from ripping through our population and normality as we know it would never return. At least I have Football Manager!

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1412529300922904576

latest IFR estimates...

Vaccines have given a 20 fold decrease in the rate. At it's worst, 1.7% people who were getting the virus were dying, now it's 0.085%.

That would mean that if there were 100k cases you'd have 85 people die.

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Cheers. It’s an interesting term which I thought implied that the third wave will be the final wave, as I said I think the Spanish flu outbreak is a classic pandemic in many ways and is used (it certainly was in my day) at Uni when you study epidemiology: My point was only a small one but it was just to say that this pandemic may well not behave in a “classical” way because of the rapid introduction of, for now, effective vaccine. That so far has been a huge positive but in the final analysis we may end up with a situation where the virus gets it’s victory by repeated waves of resistant strains that eventually burn out the dry tinder. Just a thought and no evidence to support this theory atm. 👍

I'm with you on this one VW.

Simply its a hell of a calculated risk with little upside and potentially humongous downsides. Everything hinges on the virus playing 'nice' and hoping to avoid the law of unintended consequences. What is plan B?

My worries are we will plunge many of our younger cohorts deliberately into Covid and whatever long term effects, potentially unhinge the economy in August (as already now reported) with widespread isolations and disjoints and then find its all for very little as in the autumn the next variant comes along which we will have almost perfectly set up the environment to make.