Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,349]

12 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

A fair point.

 

Also you've quoted one of the two posters on this site that I have set to Ignore, because IMO what they post is not worth the bother of reading.  And have reinforced my view on the correctness of that judgement 🤣

Some people find it difficult to accept that when the facts change they need to change their opinions. Meanwhile the UK continues to drop down the Worldometer table of worst hit countries and will continue to do so.

[Essjayess 307]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Afraid I disagree for two fairly obvious reasons:

Firstly in your comparison with Trump you are not comparing apples with apples - Trump was trying to relabel the virus itself for entirely political reasons and to support a totally false narrative about where the responsibility lies for the massive US death, whereas the 'Indian'/'Johnson' terminology refers purely to a variant, of which there have been quite a few and  which get tagged with both a scientific and a colloquial name.

Its true that the colloquial name normally relates to where the variant is first identified (which isn't necessarily where it actually originated) and so we have Kent, South African, Indian etc. But I think there is an extremely strong justification, in this country at least, for referring to the Indian variant as the Johnson variant since he is directly and personally responsible for allowing this variant to seed itself in this country in large numbers and then spread very rapidly. If Johnson had closed the border to India when he closed it to Bangladesh and Pakistan (both of whom less affected than India) and allowed 40,000 people to travel here from India then there is absolutely no way we would now be recording 27k+ cases per day and still rising, as are hospitilisations and it looks as though deaths are starting to creep up as well now.

This was an act of wanton stupidity on Johnson's part and frankly naming the variant after him is the very least he deserves IMO.

 

I agree with Ricardo on this and in all honesty, Boris's decision to arguably shut the door on India by a few days to late is completely and utterly irrelavant. Just means it hit mainly our younger unvaccinated sooner rather than later. Delta is spreading and its ongoing thruout the world..i easily recall most of last year when some were ridiculing many European nations, ours included, compared to many Asian states, yet at the time i said it was early days in the life of Covid and its variants..now just check the daily new infections in places like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, even Vietnam and Cambodia, record daily highs and ever increasing infections..its Delta not Johnson. Even in Israel, a nation that has at times has had a good record against Covid, Delta cases are doubling each few days.

Much of Europe so far has small pockets of the Delta variant, but in time it will spread, its inevitable..Delta is Global as Ricardo said and we have to live with it..be it Delta or any other variant. I to, like a few others on these forums are a bit worried or a bit apprehensive about the opening up this month...but this has got to happen at some stage anyway so lets see how things go. I for one and my family will still choose to wear Face coverings out in the public areas as well as inside shops etc and continue to  follow more hygenic hand washing  that this pandemic has forced upon us but its now to each individual to choose for him / herself what to do.

[kirku 1,332]

13 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes, I agree.  The reality is that many won't bother wearing masks on public transport or in shops now , and I'd rather those had been kept mandatory.  It's ok to reopen night clubs etc, people can decide whether or not they are comfortable going in.  But plenty of people have no choice about using public transport and most people need to go into a supermarket sometime.

Completely agree with this.

I'm still yet to understand the fervour with which some people are against wearing masks in any situation.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

23 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Had the government restricted the return of British citizens from the sub continent you would most certainly have been among the first to moan about it. Yes it seeded here pretty quickly but it won't stop it sweeping through the rest of Europe and beyond. You either get it sooner or you get it later. Thankfully we have built a strong barrier thanks to being an early mover in the vax stakes. Hopefully the rest of Europe will have caught up before it rips through there.

 

You really are making it up as you go along now, since I've been very consistent, right back to last March, in crticising the idiot Johnson for doing pretty much everything too little and too late, or indeed for doing nothing at all, so I hardly think you'd have heard any complaints from me if he'd done what he should have have done and closed the border with India.

Were there any complaints from me, or anyone else (apart from the airlines of course) when Pakistan and Bangladesh were excluded??

Not that I remember, so why not India??

[ricardo 7,349]

1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

You really are making it up as you go along now, since I've been very consistent, right back to last March, in crticising the idiot Johnson for doing pretty much everything too little and too late, or indeed for doing nothing at all, so I hardly think you'd have heard any complaints from me if he'd done what he should have have done and closed the border with India.

Were there any complaints from me, or anyone else (apart from the airlines of course) when Pakistan and Bangladesh were excluded??

Not that I remember, so why not India??

Yes, nobody could claim you are not consistent.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

Just now, ricardo said:

Yes, nobody could claim you are not consistent.

Well, you just did!

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

I agree with Ricardo on this and in all honesty, Boris's decision to arguably shut the door on India by a few days (it was two weeks and 40,000 arrivals) to late is completely and utterly irrelavant. Just means it hit mainly our younger unvaccinated sooner rather than later. Delta is spreading and its ongoing thruout the world..i easily recall most of last year when some were ridiculing many European nations, ours included, compared to many Asian states, yet at the time i said it was early days in the life of Covid and its variants..now just check the daily new infections in places like Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, even Vietnam and Cambodia, record daily highs and ever increasing infections..its Delta not Johnson. Even in Israel, a nation that has at times has had a good record against Covid, Delta cases are doubling each few days.

Yep, I remember that as well - you and @Barbe bleu as I recall and you were both wrong then and you seem to still be taking false comfort from what is happening now. Of course delta is causing more problems for everyone but when you talk about record high they are only 'record' because previously the totals in those countries were absolutely miniscule so not really very remarkable.

Of the countries you mention only Indonesia, which was never one of the really top performers has daily case levels even remotely comparable to the UK, the others are still absolutely tiny in comparison.

So its now no longer early days and as you say delta is global and yet its not Johnson's fault that the UK has performed so badly. But let's look at some actual facts:

Economy - we know that the UK has taken the biggest hit of any of the G20 countries and certainly far worse than the SE Asian countries.

Public Health - here are some numbers for you (deaths per 1m of population), you mentioned:

Thailand:     33

Malaysia: 170

Indonesia: 221

Vietnam: 0.9

Cambodia: 44

You forgot to mention:

New Zealand:  5

Australia: 35

South Korea: 40

The figure for the UK is 1,879 - is there an alternative explanation of why the UK has done so appallingly or is the obvious one - Johnson's stupidity and incompetence  - the correct one?

Edited July 5, 2021 by Creative Midfielder

[Indy 3,286]

I’m still at a loss to why people are against an easing! I’m sure that public transport companies might well carry out a risk assessment and continue to ask people to wear masks for the time being! It’ll be down to individual companies to carry out risk assessments and down to you guys to ask for it to be carried out! 
All the government is doing is reverting back from a dictatorial enforcement back to a  democratic implementation where the emphasis is on each of us to be sensible, for companies to to get back on their feet, people to get back to work and back to a level of normality where we have the power to use our judgement and encourage our environment and companies to implement measures we feel comfortable with as a free population! I don’t think it should be law any longer than it should be.

[Essjayess 307]

10 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

I tried to get the Pfizer vaccine for my second jab, but the manager in my local GP, not a doctor, kept repeating the word Government green book regulation six times in a very long sentence, with more and more exasperation thrown in, so in the end I relented and took another AZ vaccine.

I will not have a third one of the same kind just because its available, mixing vaccines has been tested now more than once by Prof. Snape and found to create a robust response and higher immunity to the virus, hence its Pfizer/Moderna as a booster or nowt.

Interesting to note that Pfizer efficacy against the Delta Variant has now dropped to 64% in Israel since early June, but still retains reasonably good protection against the worst of  symptons  caused  by the virus.

[Indy 3,286]

1 minute ago, Essjayess said:

Interesting to note that Pfizer efficacy against the Delta Variant has now dropped to 64% in Israel since early June, but still retains reasonably good protection against the worst of  symptons  caused  by the virus.

That’s interesting, I was under the impression that was AZ and Pfizer was much higher.  But hasn’t it got a 96% protection against hospitalisation?

[ricardo 7,349]

12 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Yep, I remember that as well - you and @Barbe bleu 

Public Health - here are some numbers for you (deaths per 1m of 

The figure for the UK is 1,879 - is there an alternative explanation of why the UK has done so appallingly or is the obvious one - Johnson's stupidity and incompetence  - the correct one?

How far do we have to drop down this table before you accept that we don't  have the worst figures in the world or in Europe. We will end up where I told you months ago, somewhere in the middle.

[Herman 9,717]

11 minutes ago, Indy said:

I’m still at a loss to why people are against an easing! I’m sure that public transport companies might well carry out a risk assessment and continue to ask people to wear masks for the time being! It’ll be down to individual companies to carry out risk assessments and down to you guys to ask for it to be carried out! 
All the government is doing is reverting back from a dictatorial enforcement back to a  democratic implementation where the emphasis is on each of us to be sensible, for companies to to get back on their feet, people to get back to work and back to a level of normality where we have the power to use our judgement and encourage our environment and companies to implement measures we feel comfortable with as a free population! I don’t think it should be law any longer than it should be.

I'm not personally against easing but I would rather it was done sensibly, with the vast majority double vaxxed, not all at once, following the science and done for the right reasons. This will be the fourth time I think that the government has attempted this so they need to get it right but I feel they are gambling in the hope the vax wall will hold.

 

[Aggy 752]

2 hours ago, Surfer said:

I'd prefer that there was a plan ... apparently so does Starmer. 

Wasn’t the proper plan to slowly remove restrictions proportionately, at a pace that allowed us to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed, while we got enough people vaccinated that we could live with covid without the need for restrictions? (Ie; exactly what has happened.)

I’ve always voted Labour, but frankly their approach to covid has been absolutely useless. This is yet another example of them being late to the party and offering nothing but a moan. 

Rather than offering up anything of any use, any great insight or proposed course of action, they’re whinging because the Tories haven’t got a plan for after their actual plan has been successfully implemented.

 

[Aggy 752]

7 minutes ago, Herman said:

I'm not personally against easing but I would rather it was done sensibly, with the vast majority double vaxxed, not all at once, following the science and done for the right reasons. This will be the fourth time I think that the government has attempted this so they need to get it right but I feel they are gambling in the hope the vax wall will hold.

 

What science aren’t they following? Which science suggests hospitals are going to be overwhelmed if restrictions are stopped on 19 July?

[Aggy 752]

22 minutes ago, Indy said:

That’s interesting, I was under the impression that was AZ and Pfizer was much higher.  But hasn’t it got a 96% protection against hospitalisation?

Financial Times today suggests:

“Data collected over the past month suggest the vaccine is 64 per cent effective at halting infection among those who are fully inoculated, down from a previous estimate of 94 per cent, the ministry has found.

However, the figures, first reported in the Ynet news portal, indicate the vaccine is 93 per cent effective against serious illness and hospitalisation.”

[Indy 3,286]

11 minutes ago, Herman said:

I'm not personally against easing but I would rather it was done sensibly, with the vast majority double vaxxed, not all at once, following the science and done for the right reasons. This will be the fourth time I think that the government has attempted this so they need to get it right but I feel they are gambling in the hope the vax wall will hold.

 

And there’s the 64 million dollar question, when is it OK to open up? On a downward curve? Will that then rebound back up? I don’t think it’s a one way track, for me there’s always going to be a fluid perspective as the figures change reactions might need to be made, mandatory face masks, social distance might need to come in for some reason! 
But we need to be realistic and accept Covid will continue to be around, as flu will kill the older vulnerable even with vaccinations. I’ll wait to see but I have an inclination that we will still see some forms of control in place till 2022 where theatres, pubs, public transport continue with face masks in public areas.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Indy

[Herman 9,717]

They've never followed the science. I'm not sure why you think they have.

[Indy 3,286]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

They've never followed the science. I'm not sure why you think they have.

I think they have when backed into a corner! But I wouldn’t want to be prime minister or president of any country, I think you’ll find that all countries government have been criticised for their actions all over the world regarding covid response!

Edited July 5, 2021 by Indy

[ricardo 7,349]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

They've never followed the science. I'm not sure why you think they have.

The restrictions the lockdowns the vaccinations etc, you know, the things every country on earth has done.

 I must have dreamed them all.

[Aggy 752]

10 minutes ago, Herman said:

They've never followed the science. I'm not sure why you think they have.

Doesn’t answer the question. What science suggests hospitals will be overwhelmed if restrictions are eased on 19 July?

 

[Indy 3,286]

1 minute ago, Aggy said:

Doesn’t answer the question. What science suggests hospitals will be overwhelmed if restrictions are eased on 19 July?

 

I think this was part of the thinking of easing now, taking the hit while hospitals can cope with any increase, as come winter there’s other strains on the NHS.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

I think we have a very interesting few months ahead worldwide... The sheer transmissibility of delta seems to have now finally made suppression to zero and tight border controls virtually impossible. Places like Vietnam, Australia and Fiji who have had very little exposure to the virus are now seeing surges that lockdowns simply can't contain.

What is their plan now? Lockdown for the next few years? Let it rip? Desperately lob out the first vaccine they can get their hands on?

The sad truth of all this is that we can't "beat" this virus. Sure you can push back while we try get vaccines and treatments and better infrastructure together to deal with things but just like holding your breath, you can only do it so long unless people are happy just existing like robots.

We in UK are stuck between a rock and a hard place but that hard place is overwhelmingly better than it was 18 months ago when this all started.

Sure we can delay again if we wanted but for that to actually make any material difference (r quickly back below 1) then we'd have to do basically a full lockdown again. Can you imagine people would entertain that? There'd be anarchy. Then what when the next even more transmissible variant comes in or if the vaccine efficacy wears off? Who is gonna pay for furlough to carry on? When does it end?

I genuinely think we need to move the focus on to the global effort as things are about to go nuts in plenty of places with very little vaccine protection.

[Herman 9,717]

2 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Doesn’t answer the question. What science suggests hospitals will be overwhelmed if restrictions are eased on 19 July?

 

We don't know do we. We still have no bloody idea what this thing is capable of or where it could lead so I'm more happier to err on the side of caution. If it means keeping some restriction in law for a while then that should have been the sensible option. But we don't do sensible any more.

[Aggy 752]

8 minutes ago, Herman said:

We don't know do we. We still have no bloody idea what this thing is capable of or where it could lead so I'm more happier to err on the side of caution. If it means keeping some restriction in law for a while then that should have been the sensible option. But we don't do sensible any more.

Ah. So “the science” which you previously suggested was being ignored doesn’t actually exist?

You’re ignoring the data we do have on how effective vaccines are. You’re ignoring the scientific modelling (some of it posted on here a day or two if I remember correctly) showing infections would go up but hospitalisations remain low even after restrictions eased. You’re ignoring the data we actually have on hospitalisations and deaths comparative to increase in infections.

You’re ignoring all of that, but it’s the government ignoring “the science” because they’re ignoring something that doesn’t exist other than your personal opinion we should be more cautious. Rightio.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Aggy

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

11 minutes ago, ricardo said:

How far do we have to drop down this table before you accept that we don't  have the worst figures in the world or in Europe. We will end up where I told you months ago, somewhere in the middle.

I didn't say we were the worst, although we are still very much amongst the worst  and if you want to talk of tables then we may escape relegation but we are very firmly rooted in the lower half.

But I was actually doing was debunking the very persisent and completely wrong myths that we are doing OK, and that countries that were doing better, many many times better than us from the very start and continue to do so now are not relevant or significant or capable (for a whole range of spurious reasons) of reasonable comparison with us.

There is a well understood group of countries which more than a year ago were clearly following a different strategy to most European and American countries and it was a strategy that was vastly more successful both in protecting the health of their citizens and their economies. Quite a few people, certainly @Essjayess & @Barbe bleu and I think probably your good self refused to accept that at the time and still appear to be struggling with it now but the figures both econmic and in public health speak for themselves.

By the way both @Essjayess and I forgot to mention one rather important country - China, where it all started so they had to respond with absolutely no warning and no experience or expertise to call on - a pretty significant handicap you would think.

But their deaths per 1m pop figure is 3 (so 600 times better than us) and their economy has been running essentially normally and their citizens living without restrictions for over a year now. Not suggesting that I would want to live there but still not too shoddy from a standing start!

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

26 minutes ago, Herman said:

They've never followed the science. I'm not sure why you think they have.

Of course they didn't - although if Johnson followed anyone it was Nicola Sturgeon and she did follow the science.

So I guess Johnson did follow the science although at one remove (usually necessitating a complete u-turn) and a significant delay which by a remarkable co-incidence is exactly what we witnessed on many occasions last year 😂

 

[Indy 3,286]

4 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Of course they didn't - although if Johnson followed anyone it was Nicola Sturgeon and she did follow the science.

So I guess Johnson did follow the science although at one remove (usually necessitating a complete u-turn) and a significant delay which by a remarkable co-incidence is exactly what we witnessed on many occasions last year 😂

 

Haven’t Scotland got the worst Covid rates at present? So is she following the science?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

one thing on the 2 main variants that stung us... Alpha came about in about September when our case numbers were really low right? Same as the delta variant in India right? They had a long slow burn of the initial wave then when figures were low and Modi thought the virus was getting beaten, the delta emerged.

We always hear that high transmission is rife for producing variants but these 2 game changers came about in relative low instance rates. I don't claim to have any answers or suggestions as to why (we know the alpha started in an immunocompromised patient in Kent right?) but it's a strange one...

[Herman 9,717]

14 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Ah. So “the science” which you previously suggested was being ignored doesn’t actually exist?

You’re ignoring the data we do have on how effective vaccines are. You’re ignoring the scientific modelling (some of it posted on here a day or two if I remember correctly) showing infections would go up but hospitalisations remain low even after restrictions eased. You’re ignoring the data we actually have on hospitalisations and deaths comparative to increase in infections.

You’re ignoring all of that, but it’s the government ignoring “the science” because they’re ignoring something that doesn’t exist other than your personal opinion we should be more cautious. Rightio.

I'm not ignoring anything really. The science so far suggests it's reasonably ok and that the vaccine is holding up, while restrictions are in place. The vaccines do seem to be effective but how many will still be unvaccinated when we open the doors widely? Let's not risk the health of the younger generations.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

Haven’t Scotland got the worst Covid rates at present? So is she following the science?

Probably, didn't all their supporters catch it at Wembley the other week and take it back up with them?

But as far as the Johnson variant is concerned I don't believe that she has the power to close external borders, although I could be wrong about that - either way it would be fairly meaningless if they continue to flood in via England.