Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,385]

Probably not.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Well the projection I was looking at the other days is for peak cases over 3m in late August. That’s total active cases - not daily new infections. But the Zoe app is projecting 370k active cases nationally today and about 30k new daily infections.

 

So if the projection is right, we could be looking at new daily cases of 10x currently i.e. hitting 250k - 300k new daily cases or thereabouts before they decline.

 

these are back of fag packet numbers but the point is,case numbers are expected to rise pretty dramatically from here, and there’s no point panicking about it. The projection was for much lower increases in hospitalisations and deaths. 

What matters now is that the hospitalisation numbers and deaths don’t get out of control.

[Well b back 3,203]

Interestingly Germany and Canada are now recommending that if you had the Oxford vaccine as your first dose, you should have Pfizer or at least an mRNA vaccine as your second dose. Other countries look likely to follow suit after a soon to be published Spanish paper. 

[Yellow Fever 3,782]

Can't hep but feel the governments proposed 'gung-ho devil may care' Bolsonaro approach to opening up has huge political risks.

Most unvaccinated or weakly vaccinated (say 35% population!) will catch it or be challenged by it and have symptoms. A significant number of the double vaccinated & vulnerable too. Hospitalizations, many though not too serious, will soar just due to the millions infected and sadly quite a few deaths too.

Who will we all blame when we are spluttering and gasping with the Johnson's ? Seems little upside but if it goes wrong the Tories would be literally a toxic brand that can seriously damage your health and wealth for generations.

 

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

14 hours ago, Well b back said:

Interestingly Germany and Canada are now recommending that if you had the Oxford vaccine as your first dose, you should have Pfizer or at least an mRNA vaccine as your second dose. Other countries look likely to follow suit after a soon to be published Spanish paper. 

I tried to get the Pfizer vaccine for my second jab, but the manager in my local GP, not a doctor, kept repeating the word Government green book regulation six times in a very long sentence, with more and more exasperation thrown in, so in the end I relented and took another AZ vaccine.

I will not have a third one of the same kind just because its available, mixing vaccines has been tested now more than once by Prof. Snape and found to create a robust response and higher immunity to the virus, hence its Pfizer/Moderna as a booster or nowt.

[Herman 9,760]

Javid is the sacrificial lamb. We are the Guinea pigs. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

55 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Can't hep but feel the governments proposed 'gung-ho devil may care' Bolsonaro approach to opening up has huge political risks.

Most unvaccinated or weakly vaccinated (say 35% population!) will catch it or be challenged by it and have symptoms. A significant number of the double vaccinated & vulnerable too. Hospitalizations, many though not too serious, will soar just due to the millions infected and sadly quite a few deaths too.

Who will we all blame when we are spluttering and gasping with the Johnson's ? Seems little upside but if it goes wrong the Tories would be literally a toxic brand that can seriously damage your health and wealth for generations.

 

no different to what they've always been doing... There are other ways to not kill off your most vulnerable available that don't include restricting our lives as a whole... When have they ever cared about the working class other than to make sure their businesses churn out profit.

[Yellow Fever 3,782]

21 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

no different to what they've always been doing... There are other ways to not kill off your most vulnerable available that don't include restricting our lives as a whole... When have they ever cared about the working class other than to make sure their businesses churn out profit.

It's their attitude that's wrong, not the intention or direction of travel. It's as if the younger cohorts catching Covid with all the long term issues doesn't matter.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

It's their attitude that's wrong, not the intention or direction of travel. It's as if the younger cohorts catching Covid with all the long term issues doesn't matter.

I don't think there's really much of an option short of waiting years for childhood vaccines to be approved sadly... they should definitely be getting over 12s involved though. For the vast majority of young people, it is incredibly low risk. The extreme measures we've had the last year were proportionate to stop the NHS from collapsing where as that now doesn't look to be the case. I feel some people are underestimating just how restricted our lives have been the last 16 months, even now because it doesn't impact them as much.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Owners of my Golf Club, both in their forties. She has had both jabs, he won't have them. She didn't elaborate on what there relationship is like but said they have come to an agreement.

I wonder how many other homes have a similar situation?

[Aggy 755]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I don't think there's really much of an option short of waiting years for childhood vaccines to be approved sadly... they should definitely be getting over 12s involved though. For the vast majority of young people, it is incredibly low risk. The extreme measures we've had the last year were proportionate to stop the NHS from collapsing where as that now doesn't look to be the case. I feel some people are underestimating just how restricted our lives have been the last 16 months, even now because it doesn't impact them as much.

I think people also forget the risks associated with other things. We’ve had every little detail of covid all over the news every day for 18 months, and because we never had anywhere near the same sort of detail about anything else before, people seem to think we lived in a zero risk environment before covid. If you wanted to look, there are plenty of horror stories from people who caught “just” flu years ago and had their lives devastated for months or even years. Or other common infections.

First two links from google below - “normal” flu can cause medium/long term issues such as heart failure, increased risk of heart disease, inflamed brain liver and spinal cord, pregnancy complications, autoimmune conditions affecting muscle strength, hearing loss, increased chances of disability, reduced endurance and strength, increased risk of stroke.

Covid might be worse and might affect more people in similar ways, but then it raises uncomfortable questions about why we didn’t take similar measures before. If hospitals aren’t going to be overwhelmed, why is it okay for x amount of people to suffer such horrendous medium and long term effects from other things in 2019 but not for x+some people to suffer similar from covid?

It has to be objective. Hospitals being overwhelmed is objective - they are or they aren’t. Everyone suffers if they are. Only taking national action because of long term issues caused by one specific infection, while ignoring slightly fewer people suffering very similar effects from something else, isn’t objective.

 

https://www.everydayhealth.com/cold-flu-pictures/suprising-health-complications-from-cold-and-flu.aspx
https://www.health.com/condition/flu/flu-long-term-effects

 

[Barbe bleu 825]

3 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

I tried to get the Pfizer vaccine for my second jab, but the manager in my local GP, not a doctor, kept repeating the word Government green book regulation six times in a very long sentence, with more and more exasperation thrown in, so in the end I relented and took another AZ vaccine.

I will not have a third one of the same kind just because its available, mixing vaccines has been tested now more than once by Prof. Snape and found to create a robust response and higher immunity to the virus, hence its Pfizer/Moderna as a booster or nowt.

For the huge majority Az is a very, very good vaccine.

In  the long run we might find that it is actually a more effective vaccine than the mRNA equivalents (for instance because it has a better t cell or mucosal antibody effect or  because it encourages a more enduring memory).

In the short term the differences in statistics are well within margins of error.

If a doctor with years of experience gives you an opinion based on expert advice I would accept what they say... Especially if the other option is to do nothing because someone on here or on twitter said Az is crap...

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Indy 3,298]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

For the huge majority Az is a very, very good vaccine.

In  the long run we might find that it is actually a more effective vaccine than the mRNA equivalents (for instance because it has a better t cell or mucosal antibody effect or  because it encourages a more enduring memory).

In the short term the differences in statistics are well within margins of error.

If a doctor with years of experience gives you an opinion based on expert advice I would accept what they say... Especially if the other option is to do nothing because someone on here or on twitter said Az is crap...

 

Indeed people forget it’s still far more effective than any flu vaccines! Yet people don’t rant about that! We’re just damn lucky we have great scientists round the work working hard and got great results so fast!

Edited July 5, 2021 by Indy

[ricardo 7,385]

National

27334 -  9

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 81.1 to 86.8

Vax

1st Dose     77,222

2nd Dose     111,410

we appear to be running out of willing arms to inject.

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days ( still no update on the official site)

01-07-2021        1,905 30-06-2021 1,798 29-06-2021 1,726 28-06-2021 1,726 27-06-2021 1,590 26-06-2021 1,533 25-06-2021 1,527

[ricardo 7,385]

Latest England only numbers

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

6 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Can't hep but feel the governments proposed 'gung-ho devil may care' Bolsonaro approach to opening up has huge political risks.

Most unvaccinated or weakly vaccinated (say 35% population!) will catch it or be challenged by it and have symptoms. A significant number of the double vaccinated & vulnerable too. Hospitalizations, many though not too serious, will soar just due to the millions infected and sadly quite a few deaths too.

Who will we all blame when we are spluttering and gasping with the Johnson's ? Seems little upside but if it goes wrong the Tories would be literally a toxic brand that can seriously damage your health and wealth for generations.

 

I think calling it the "Johnson's" is worse than Trump calling it "the China virus" .  After all, it seems pretty clear it did actually originate in China, the jury is out on whether it occurred naturally or in a lab, but it seems far-fetched that it wasn't in China.  But I still think it's wrong to call it the China virus.  Even worse though, to call a virus being experienced world-wide after the PM of one small country.  I'm disappointed YF, I thought you were better than stooping to this sort of nonsense.

 

At the moment the hot spot is Scotland - much higher case rate than the rest of the UK.  Are they gasping and spluttering with "the Sturgeon's".  If not, what's the difference ?

 

Most Western countries are now rolling back restrictions and I think there is a solid scientific underpinning for the UK government's approach, and those under 30 are fully aware this disease, except in rare cases, is not serious for them, and are desperate to get back to a normal life.  There's a very definite upside to allowing people their freedom !! To say there's little upside to giving people freedom is logic I completely reject, maybe in a dictatorship, but it shouldn't need justifying here that freedom is a positive good !

 

It is true that if the next, hopefully final, phase of the virus, does go wrong, then the government will get flak for it, that's the nature of government (except if you're the Scottish first minister when it appears you're exempt from criticism).  But it would have to go dramatically wrong to affect the government that badly.

 

I think most people look around the world and are aware that dealing with Covid has been difficult for governments everywhere and almost nowhere has the government dealt with it really well.  It's almost like the best government policy is to be in charge of a small island group in the South Pacific, thousands of miles from the nearest neighbours....

 

I wish the media would prepare people in a responsible way for the fact that case numbers are going to rise, pretty sharply, over the next month or two. What matters is that hospitalisations do not get out of control. 

[sonyc 5,517]

I believe I've 'crossed the line' @It's Character Forming towards acceptance now that the time must have arrived to open up, to relax restriction ...but only in the last week, reading as broadly as have been able to. I'm still concerned at the views of scientists but perhaps I'm liable to be too deferential to expert opinion (far more than this government)...so I've factored that bias in too.

I'm still a little worried. To have no checks and balances whatsoever feels risky. Someone tweeted it was a bit like driving on the roads with no highway code or traffic lights or lane barriers etc. You just wouldn't do that. But I dismissed that too because people, in the main anyway, know the rules and good health discipline. Certainly, I'm continuing to be a mask wearer in crowded situations indoors, double jabbed or not. 

A big disappointment has been the sheer lack of response or guidance or investment in schools in the matter of ventilation. That the young people will be vectors was well known. Some businesses have taken responsibility. We know how the virus spreads.

Another disappointment is the expectation that numbers will continue but at a reducing rate. I believe they have a way to go yet, rising with attendant hospitalisation. There again, perhaps because it's summer then it's better now than in the winter for the NHS.

Such a difficult balance. In summary, I support the relaxation but wish there was just a stronger messaging on caution. I just read the latest drivel by Javed and shake my head frankly.

Someone on the radio suggested that now we are effectively out and about driving on the motorway (it was rather oblique metaphor for relaxation) then you wouldn't normally just bang your foot down on the floor. Too much triumphalism and over-optimism is not a great message with this disease and will come back and bite if things do go wrong.

Let's hope though for all our sakes we navigate this finally and properly feel comfortable in "living with the virus".

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

I think calling it the "Johnson's" is worse than Trump calling it "the China virus" . 

Afraid I disagree for two fairly obvious reasons:

Firstly in your comparison with Trump you are not comparing apples with apples - Trump was trying to relabel the virus itself for entirely political reasons and to support a totally false narrative about where the responsibility lies for the massive US death, whereas the 'Indian'/'Johnson' terminology refers purely to a variant, of which there have been quite a few and  which get tagged with both a scientific and a colloquial name.

Its true that the colloquial name normally relates to where the variant is first identified (which isn't necessarily where it actually originated) and so we have Kent, South African, Indian etc. But I think there is an extremely strong justification, in this country at least, for referring to the Indian variant as the Johnson variant since he is directly and personally responsible for allowing this variant to seed itself in this country in large numbers and then spread very rapidly. If Johnson had closed the border to India when he closed it to Bangladesh and Pakistan (both of whom less affected than India) and allowed 40,000 people to travel here from India then there is absolutely no way we would now be recording 27k+ cases per day and still rising, as are hospitilisations and it looks as though deaths are starting to creep up as well now.

This was an act of wanton stupidity on Johnson's part and frankly naming the variant after him is the very least he deserves IMO.

 

Edited July 5, 2021 by Creative Midfielder

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Creative Midfielder
Double post

[ricardo 7,385]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

 

 

I wish the media would prepare people in a responsible way for the fact that case numbers are going to rise, pretty sharply, over the next month or two. What matters is that hospitalisations do not get out of control. 

100k by next week

65 million by first week in November😉

People need to realise that Covid is now endemic and everyone is likely to get it several times during their lives. The vaccines will make this just another controlable disease, it won't  ever completely go away.

[ricardo 7,385]

8 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Afraid I disagree for two fairly obvious reasons:

Firstly in your comparison with Trump you are not comparing apples with apples - Trump was trying to relabel the virus itself for entirely political reasons and to support a totally false narrative about where the responsibility lies for the massive US death, whereas the 'Indian'/'Johnson' terminology refers purely to a variant, of which there have been quite a few and  which get tagged with both a scientific and a colloquial name.

Its true that the colloquial name normally relates to where the variant is first identified (which isn't necessarily where it actually originated) and so we have Kent, South African, Indian etc. But I think there is an extremely strong justification, in this country at least, for referring to the Indian variant as the Johnson variant since he is directly and personally responsible for allowing this variant to seed itself in this country in large numbers and then spread very rapidly. If Johnson had closed the border to India when he closed it to Bangladesh and Pakistan (both of whom less affected than India) then there is absolutely no way we would now be recorded 27k+ cases per day and still rising, as are hospitilisations and it looks as though deaths are starting to creep up as well now.

This was an act of wanton stupidity on Johnson's part and frankly naming the variant after him is the very least he deserves IMO.

 

None of this will make the slightest difference, the Delta variant will go through every country, it cannot be avoided. This is now an endemic disease that you and everyone else on earth will get many times in their lifetimes. Hiding is not an answer, it merely defers the cases, hospitalisations and deaths to a later date. Thanks to vaccines it will just become another disease that we have a reasonable measure of control over.

[Indy 3,298]

I liked the fact that it’s now up to people to take responsibility! You can all buy better masks if you feel uncomfortable in crowded areas…..it’s about time everyone policed themselves, it’s amazing that those who have had the bad fortune to go through long term cancer treatments will know all about managing hygiene risks and once you have gone through this, you tend to carry it on….the same should be considered for Covid…..living with it, might mean differe measures for different people.

It’s all still advisory yet, nothing confirmed by Boris, just laying it out prior to the 12th where I’m sure there’s more to be assessed.

[Surfer 1,547]

I'd prefer that there was a plan ... apparently so does Starmer. 

[Indy 3,298]

4 minutes ago, Surfer said:

I'd prefer that there was a plan ... apparently so does Starmer. 

Oh indeed but when asked what his plan would have been, went into repeat mode with nothing substantial! All bull, the same as any politician. I’m sure if it was the other way round then bumbling Boris would have said the same! Let’s not forget Boris hasn’t said this is what’s happening it’s what is likely to happen, proviso that any more data between now and the 12th shows different. I’m sure if the science dictates the need for more measures then more measures will be adhered to.

Please feel free to keep socially distancing and wearing masks if you feel that’s what’s needed,

Edited July 5, 2021 by Indy

[ricardo 7,385]

2 minutes ago, Indy said:

 

Please feel free to keep socially distancing and wearing masks if you feel that’s what’s needed,

Indeed

There's no law against it.😀

[Tetteys Jig 830]

25 minutes ago, Indy said:

Oh indeed but when asked what his plan would have been, went into repeat mode with nothing substantial! All bull, the same as any politician. I’m sure if it was the other way round then bumbling Boris would have said the same! Let’s not forget Boris hasn’t said this is what’s happening it’s what is likely to happen, proviso that any more data between now and the 12th shows different. I’m sure if the science dictates the need for more measures then more measures will be adhered to.

Please feel free to keep socially distancing and wearing masks if you feel that’s what’s needed,

the one thing Starmer did say that had relevance was giving proper sick pay for people that have to isolate. One of the main pitfalls of TTI was simply that the "I" didn't happen in many cases rendering the rest of it pointless... statutory sick pay in this country is a complete joke.

They should also be spending the summer installing Hvac in schools. We're gonna get peaks and troughs of thus virus so surely if there's easy ways to control these then we should do them?

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

None of this will make the slightest difference, the Delta variant will go through every country, it cannot be avoided. This is now an endemic disease that you and everyone else on earth will get many times in their lifetimes. Hiding is not an answer, it merely defers the cases, hospitalisations and deaths to a later date. Thanks to vaccines it will just become another disease that we have a reasonable measure of control over.

A fair point.

 

Also you've quoted one of the two posters on this site that I have set to Ignore, because IMO what they post is not worth the bother of reading.  And have reinforced my view on the correctness of that judgement 🤣

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

I believe I've 'crossed the line' @It's Character Forming towards acceptance now that the time must have arrived to open up, to relax restriction ...but only in the last week, reading as broadly as have been able to. I'm still concerned at the views of scientists but perhaps I'm liable to be too deferential to expert opinion (far more than this government)...so I've factored that bias in too.

I'm still a little worried. To have no checks and balances whatsoever feels risky. Someone tweeted it was a bit like driving on the roads with no highway code or traffic lights or lane barriers etc. You just wouldn't do that. But I dismissed that too because people, in the main anyway, know the rules and good health discipline. Certainly, I'm continuing to be a mask wearer in crowded situations indoors, double jabbed or not. 

A big disappointment has been the sheer lack of response or guidance or investment in schools in the matter of ventilation. That the young people will be vectors was well known. Some businesses have taken responsibility. We know how the virus spreads.

Another disappointment is the expectation that numbers will continue but at a reducing rate. I believe they have a way to go yet, rising with attendant hospitalisation. There again, perhaps because it's summer then it's better now than in the winter for the NHS.

Such a difficult balance. In summary, I support the relaxation but wish there was just a stronger messaging on caution. I just read the latest drivel by Javed and shake my head frankly.

Someone on the radio suggested that now we are effectively out and about driving on the motorway (it was rather oblique metaphor for relaxation) then you wouldn't normally just bang your foot down on the floor. Too much triumphalism and over-optimism is not a great message with this disease and will come back and bite if things do go wrong.

Let's hope though for all our sakes we navigate this finally and properly feel comfortable in "living with the virus".

Yes, I agree.  The reality is that many won't bother wearing masks on public transport or in shops now , and I'd rather those had been kept mandatory.  It's ok to reopen night clubs etc, people can decide whether or not they are comfortable going in.  But plenty of people have no choice about using public transport and most people need to go into a supermarket sometime.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

None of this will make the slightest difference, the Delta variant will go through every country, it cannot be avoided. This is now an endemic disease that you and everyone else on earth will get many times in their lifetimes. Hiding is not an answer, it merely defers the cases, hospitalisations and deaths to a later date. Thanks to vaccines it will just become another disease that we have a reasonable measure of control over.

That quite clearly isn't true - allowing 40,000 people to come in from India when the virus was absolutely raging there has made a massive difference to what has happened in the UK compared to pretty much every other European country.

This variant probably will find its way into most other European countries but far later and far more slowly than has happened in this country - given that many of them have far more effective track and trace systems than we do then they will probably contain it better than us as well. All of which buys them more time to vaccinate and keeps the pressure off their health systems.

As to your view of the future I think you are making a lot of very shaky assumptions - I'm not as pessimistic as you in believing that Covid is endemic now, or for matter matter that endemic diseases can't be eliminated (mainly because they can and have been). But equally I am not as optimistic as you that vaccines are always going to give us a reasonable amount of control - depends what you mean by 'reasonable' but we're still at the very early stages of seeing what variants can do so I'd say its way too early to be counting those sort of chickens.

[ricardo 7,385]

1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That quite clearly isn't true - allowing 40,000 people to come in from India when the virus was absolutely raging there has made a massive difference to what has happened in the UK compared to pretty much every other European country.

 

Had the government restricted the return of British citizens from the sub continent you would most certainly have been among the first to moan about it. Yes it seeded here pretty quickly but it won't stop it sweeping through the rest of Europe and beyond. You either get it sooner or you get it later. Thankfully we have built a strong barrier thanks to being an early mover in the vax stakes. Hopefully the rest of Europe will have caught up before it rips through there.