Corona Virus main thread

[Aggy 752]

8 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

But based on that premise, there really wasn't a justification this time.

It was based on rising cases v those vaccinated surely.

See my earlier response to you.  The difference is that information about vaccine effectiveness wasn’t confirmed until after the announcement. 

 

[Aggy 752]

8 hours ago, Well b back said:

Even mRNA vaccines are struggling against Delta at 1 dose. That means the best vaccines we have are defeatable by viral adaptation.
 

2nd dose in the rest of the world is 3 weeks.

Isn’t everything defeatable by viral adaptation? 

What do you mean by struggling? Aren’t they 75 per cent effective at stopping hospitalisation after one dose? Why have you specified delta - didn’t the announcement last week suggest the vaccines were equally as effective against delta as anything else, or have I missed something?

 

Edit: think you might have been quoting someone rather than making that statement yourself!

Edited June 24, 2021 by Aggy

[CANARYKING 634]

New Delta Plus variant now spreading, 60 per cent more transferable than others, binds longer to your lungs.

[Capt. Pants 4,198]

You need look at trends not specific numbers and you can't deny there are concerns. Delta+ unfortunately might be a gamechanger.

I would say 19th July is 50/50 now but Johnson will probably wilt under the pressure to open up. It's also a key period for ending Furloughing, so I hear.

There will be a brief period of freedom where we live or die with the virus, but we haven't beat it and probably never will.

[Well b back 3,190]

46 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Isn’t everything defeatable by viral adaptation? 

What do you mean by struggling? Aren’t they 75 per cent effective at stopping hospitalisation after one dose? Why have you specified delta - didn’t the announcement last week suggest the vaccines were equally as effective against delta as anything else, or have I missed something?

 

Edit: think you might have been quoting someone rather than making that statement yourself!

The first bit was a quote from upo’s post the second part about 2 doses and the time taken between them was my response.

Are you suggesting the rest of the world do not administer the second Pfizer dose after 3 weeks ? I am a little confused.

[Well b back 3,190]

10 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

You need look at trends not specific numbers and you can't deny there are concerns. Delta+ unfortunately might be a gamechanger.

I would say 19th July is 50/50 now but Johnson will probably wilt under the pressure to open up. It's also a key period for ending Furloughing, so I hear.

There will be a brief period of freedom where we live or die with the virus, but we haven't beat it and probably never will.

Well put.

I fear that people will just assume a new normal, immediate non mask wearing and no social distancing in indoor packed enclosed places.
I cannot see that happening.

[Barbe bleu 815]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

 it has come back to haunt us with the newer Delta variants where clearly 2 doses is needed (and now quickly). A little bit of swings and roundabouts.

It depends on the aim of the jab.  If the aim was to prevent hospitalization then the evidence is absolutely clear that extending the delay between doses was and is the right thing to do.

If the aim was to stop spread then the evidence is less clear but there are hints in the very complex  data that it might be true that a shorter delay might have more impact.

Worth remembering though that the 12 week delay has become a flexible window as far as I can tell.

[Well b back 3,190]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

It depends on the aim of the jab.  If the aim was to prevent hospitalization then the evidence is absolutely clear that extending the delay between doses was and is the right thing to do.

If the aim was to stop spread then the evidence is less clear but there are hints in the very complex  data that it might be true that a shorter delay might have more impact.

Worth remembering though that the 12 week delay has become a flexible window as far as I can tell.

I think the aim of developing vaccines was indeed to stop deaths and hospitalisation, an absolute 100% success, however the complicating issue is if you look at the Israel results and then look at trends in other countries the mRna vaccines seem to be reducing case numbers dramatically as well as deaths and hospitalisation especially at 1-2 weeks after 2 doses.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Cases continue to climb in Cornwall and are way above the national average. St Ives particularly.

Government, well our MP, George Useless Eustice, continues to deny it has anything to do with the G7 summit.🐖🐖

[ricardo 7,347]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

MP, George Useless Eustice, continues to deny it has anything to do with the G7 summit.🐖🐖

20 thousand Cornishmen will know different.

[Barbe bleu 815]

19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

20 thousand Cornishmen will know different.

Its 'mes ugens mil a dus Kernow' to the likes of you!

Edited June 24, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

20 thousand Cornishmen will know different.

Its not that bad mate, 140 per 100K.😀

Could have been brought in by the Ukraines on Useless Eustice's farm

[ricardo 7,347]

National

16703 - 21

Vax

1st   207,647

2nd  167,988

Hospital Patients

1533  up 20

 

 

[ricardo 7,347]

England only.

[ricardo 7,347]

Reality versus the models, just 15% of the lowest prediction.

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by ricardo

[Herman 9,717]

By luck rather than any sensible plan. 

[ricardo 7,347]

11 minutes ago, Herman said:

By luck rather than any sensible plan. 

Didn't need any luck, those scaremonger scenarios were nonsense.

Edited June 24, 2021 by ricardo

[Indy 3,283]

21 minutes ago, Herman said:

By luck rather than any sensible plan. 

A little unfair Herman, I’m no lover of this useless manipulative government but this time they’ve initiated local mass vaccinations, those of us who have kept a close eye on the figures said that the way we have vaccinated means there’s firebreaks in the spread of this variant and it can only go down certain paths, dangerous paths are pretty well covered by dual vaccinations and these are in te very high 90s % of protection to the elderly and vulnerable.

As Ricardo posted even the best case scenario predicted over six weeks ago hasn’t happened. We must not get complacent but we must also accept to move forwards and live with Covid like we do flu. I predict Flu will kill thousands of who won’t get a mention.

Edited June 24, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

41 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Reality versus the models, just 15% of the lowest prediction.

 

On the chart as others in the tweet keep pointing out - 

Scenario 5 (the very low one) INCLUDES EFFECT OF VACCINATIONS !!!!!!!. By inference the others don't. 

Pretty good fit especially it was crystal ball gazing from 17th February

[sonyc 5,492]

28 minutes ago, Indy said:

A little unfair Herman, I’m no lover of this useless manipulative government but this time they’ve initiated local mass vaccinations, those of us who have kept a close eye on the figures said that the way we have vaccinated means there’s firebreaks in the spread of this variant and it can only go down certain paths, dangerous paths are pretty well covered by dual vaccinations and these are in te very high 90s % of protection to the elderly and vulnerable.

As Ricardo posted even the best case scenario predicted over six weeks ago hasn’t happened. We must not get complacent but we must also accept to move forwards and live with Covid like we do flu. I predict Flu will kill thousands of who won’t get a mention.

I must ask Indy what your view is about flu as you appear quite well researched in this general area. We do have a 'season' every winter (or thereabouts),  but I've wondered that in recent years had we have tested types of flu  like we have done with C19 and reported the infection stats daily, the deaths, the geography etc... just what kind of effect it may have had on the public? Clearly jabs reduce flu rates (and I believe they guess what variants might hit a country every year and try and anticipate what vaccine is most effective?). Am I right?

I believe that a bad winter can mean 50,000 deaths where flu has been a factor? And presumably there are (and always have been) flu variants? Flu has been around for hundreds of years. I'm guessing C19 and it's offspring is likely too to be around?...forever perhaps?

I know one cannot compare the two viruses exactly because C19 is perhaps many more times deadly. But you'll get my drift. Perhaps we are simply going to have to vaccinate, be careful with good health and hygiene and take our chances.  And we ought to know within the next 6 months whether this will be the plan ahead, should our NHS manage this latest third wave. We might simply come to expect waves but they may be like seasonal flu?

Lots of questions!

 

Edited June 24, 2021 by sonyc

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I must ask Indy what your view is about flu as you appear quite well researched in this general area. We do have a 'season' every winter (or thereabouts),  but I've wondered that in recent years had we have tested types of flu  like we have done with C19 and reported the infection stats daily, the deaths, the geography etc... just what kinds of effect it may have had on the public? Clearly jabs reduce flu rates (and I believe they guess what variants might hit a country every year and try and anticipate what vaccine is most effective?). Am I right?

I believe that a bad winter can mean 50,000 deaths where flu has been a factor? And presumably there are (and always have) been flu variants? Flu has been around for hundreds of years. I'm guessing C19 and it's offspring is likely too to be around?...forever perhaps?

I know one cannot compare the two viruses exactly because C19 is perhaps many more times deadly. But you'll get my drift. Perhaps we are simply going to have to vaccinate, be careful with good health and hygiene and take our chances.  And we ought to know within the next 6 months whether this will be the plan ahead, should our NHS manage this latest third wave. We might simply come to expect waves but they may be like seasonal flu?

Lots of questions!

 

Hi Sonyc

The worry as I understand it ( from the vaccine centres where I attend ) is that because there has been no flu season it will be pure guesswork as to what the flu strain would or could be when or if it arrives. They are expecting higher ( by miles ) flu jab take up, ( it may even be part of COVID boosters ) but point out 9 years out of 10 they know what’s coming, this year it really will be a guess. 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Also if you look at people out & about, large numbers of people are now mingling pretty freely without worrying about social distancing.  The level of increase of the virus now is clearly being reduced by the level of vaccination plus people with natural immunity from having had Covid.  Hospital numbers are only increasing to a very modest level.  If we can just keep a lid on it for another month or two, while over 18s get increasingly vaccinated, I think we will be at the stage when it is not justifiable to keep restrictions on what people can do in the UK.  I'm sure some types of control measures will continue e.g. masks, testing & isolation, travel abroad, etc.  But I think blanket bans on activities like we still have now will go.

 

The comparison to flu ignores the fact that we take zero measures to reduce the spread of flu - no social distancing or anything has ever been tried with flu in mind.  The only exception has been the flu vaccine, but that's a fairly recent innovation.  In terms of restrictions on peoples' lifestyles, nothing has ever been done for flu (except for some measures in 1918)..

 

I still think the original projection of 500k Covid deaths with no control measures was probably pretty accurate.  That's why it needed exceptional measures.

[sonyc 5,492]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Hi Sonyc

The worry as I understand it ( from the vaccine centres where I attend ) is that because there has been no flu season it will be pure guesswork as to what the flu strain would or could be when or if it arrives. They are expecting higher ( by miles ) flu jab take up, ( it may even be part of COVID boosters ) but point out 9 years out of 10 they know what’s coming, this year it really will be a guess. 

Cheers WBB, it will be guesswork. Italian scientist/virologist on the radio was saying we've lived with polio and measles (highly contagious) but they have been managed out through vaccination. He was extremely confident about our vaccination scheme. It was good to hear.

Flu he stated was more tricky as it mutates a lot but doesn't have the deadly pathogen nature of C19.

He also was the one saying two weeks before our first wave..."do something now, lock up" as he knew what was to unfold. We (our government) of course were rather tin-eared.

[Indy 3,283]

40 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Cheers WBB, it will be guesswork. Italian scientist/virologist on the radio was saying we've lived with polio and measles (highly contagious) but they have been managed out through vaccination. He was extremely confident about our vaccination scheme. It was good to hear.

Flu he stated was more tricky as it mutates a lot but doesn't have the deadly pathogen nature of C19.

He also was the one saying two weeks before our first wave..."do something now, lock up" as he knew what was to unfold. We (our government) of course were rather tin-eared.

Hi Sonyc, my view on flu is that each year globally it kills between 600,000 to 750,000 estimated, year in year out, we vaccinate the over 50’s as they are the vulnerable group plus some others who also need protection. Like for like with the Covid, flu effects the over 50 far worse than youngsters.

My point is that flu vaccines at best give 50% effectiveness, yet we’ve lived happily with this every year, but Covid now at numbers where it’s comparable with flu probably this winter, some people have kittens about Covid yet don’t bat an eyelid on flu!

There comes a point where life is valued, but it has to be against the benefits of the masses, it’s too easy now to get swept up in wanting zero Covid, which in time might well come, with future vaccines being developed, but for the time being we must move forwards, in a control manner, in my opinion.

My last point is as I’ve been told by my mate involved, with 66% vaccinations it is the tipping point for as he put it firebreak scenario, where it only has certain paths it can run as the vaccine walls stop it spreading on mass as it was free to last two shutdowns!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

Hi Sonyc, my view on flu is that each year globally it kills between 600,000 to 750,000 estimated, year in year out, we vaccinate the over 50’s as they are the vulnerable group plus some others who also need protection. Like for like with the Covid, flu effects the over 50 far worse than youngsters.

My point is that flu vaccines at best give 50% effectiveness, yet we’ve lived happily with this every year, but Covid now at numbers where it’s comparable with flu probably this winter, some people have kittens about Covid yet don’t bat an eyelid on flu!

There comes a point where life is valued, but it has to be against the benefits of the masses, it’s too easy now to get swept up in wanting zero Covid, which in time might well come, with future vaccines being developed, but for the time being we must move forwards, in a control manner, in my opinion.

My last point is as I’ve been told by my mate involved, with 66% vaccinations it is the tipping point for as he put it firebreak scenario, where it only has certain paths it can run as the vaccine walls stop it spreading on mass as it was free to last two shutdowns!

I agree with your firebreak comment, I think we're already seeing this given the limited rise in cases when people are mingling much more freely.  Plenty of people in their 20s are mixing almost like normal.

 

But on flu, the difference in the past was that we had UK deaths of 20,000-40,000 per year with no effort to suppress it, except a vaccine that's not great, used for a limited part of the population.  Covid has killed c130k despite massive efforts to suppress it.  That's the difference.

 

I'm really optimistic now though that we have plenty of really good vaccines for Covid which will allow us to get it down to being less serious that flu.

[Indy 3,283]

13 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I agree with your firebreak comment, I think we're already seeing this given the limited rise in cases when people are mingling much more freely.  Plenty of people in their 20s are mixing almost like normal.

 

But on flu, the difference in the past was that we had UK deaths of 20,000-40,000 per year with no effort to suppress it, except a vaccine that's not great, used for a limited part of the population.  Covid has killed c130k despite massive efforts to suppress it.  That's the difference.

 

I'm really optimistic now though that we have plenty of really good vaccines for Covid which will allow us to get it down to being less serious that flu.

I agree but it has to be said….. it’s died With Covid, excess deaths last year was around 60,000 above average, that’s the key figure for me. In 2017 I think we had a very high number of flu deaths around 55k but generally going up as the ageing population end up with flu figures will tend to increase.

Of course we had to have the lockdowns pre vaccines, but if not everyone takes up the vaccines then there’s always going to be a small chance of Covid lingering longer.  I was told that the next generation of vaccines are being developed to target the nucleus not the protein of the virus as the marker, thus making the variant a non factor. I hope they break through with this.

A measured controlled easing as we’re doing is the best way forwards. Remember just because others don’t have to socially distance or wear masks doesn’t mean we can’t, we all can be careful, **** our own risks for the time being.

Edited June 24, 2021 by Indy

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

On 21/06/2021 at 18:40, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Just found out that my 2nd AZ, that I thought would be end of July, was actually scheduled for this week 

But it is getting delayed until next week, when I am on holiday. I'll be nearly as far from home as is possible to be on Iceland when the AZ is being done 

And that might be the last AZ we have. I will try to get a local jab, or ask if I can get a different vaccine. Failing that, I might need to fly home for a day 

🤔

After a few emails with the health authorities, I've just had a text to confirm 2nd Jab next week in a town I'll be staying near 😎

[Aggy 752]

7 hours ago, ricardo said:

Didn't need any luck, those scaremonger scenarios were nonsense.

I’ve said it before and no doubt will again….”follow the science” unless it doesn’t suggest lockdown forever, in which case ignore the science and lock down forever

[Aggy 752]

6 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

I agree with your firebreak comment, I think we're already seeing this given the limited rise in cases when people are mingling much more freely.  Plenty of people in their 20s are mixing almost like normal.

 

But on flu, the difference in the past was that we had UK deaths of 20,000-40,000 per year with no effort to suppress it, except a vaccine that's not great, used for a limited part of the population.  Covid has killed c130k despite massive efforts to suppress it.  That's the difference.

 

I'm really optimistic now though that we have plenty of really good vaccines for Covid which will allow us to get it down to being less serious that flu.

I think the idea that vaccinating millions of people, trying to predict which strand to vaccinate people against,  every single year is “no effort” is frankly quite ridiculous. 

Edit: perhaps some people ought to be reminded how many people died of flu every single year before the “no effort” flu jab came about.

Edited June 24, 2021 by Aggy

[Aggy 752]

7 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

On the chart as others in the tweet keep pointing out - 

Scenario 5 (the very low one) INCLUDES EFFECT OF VACCINATIONS !!!!!!!. By inference the others don't. 

Pretty good fit especially it was crystal ball gazing from 17th February

What’s the point you’re making? That we should ignore the effect of vaccinations?