Corona Virus main thread

[Indy 3,283]

16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

very possible.

there are quite a few anti vaxers about unfortunately.

Yes it’s certainly the case in the younger age groups Ricardo, I bet their uptake would soar if they were threatened to restrict travel, nights out etc. Without double vaccinations!

[Well b back 3,186]

Just now, Indy said:

Yes it’s certainly the case in the younger age groups Ricardo, I bet their uptake would soar if they were threatened to restrict travel, nights out etc. Without double vaccinations!

We already have, that is the only reason the government are currently backtracking on travel, isolation and music festivals where a double vaccination is required. Wait till they break the news that after 19/7 there will still be mask wearing and 1 meter distancing in confined indoor areas.

[Indy 3,283]

3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

We already have, that is the only reason the government are currently backtracking on travel, isolation and music festivals where a double vaccination is required. Wait till they break the news that after 19/7 there will still be mask wearing and 1 meter distancing in confined indoor areas.

Indeed, there’s likely to be some form of restrictions in place by October through to February due to Flu concerns…..as Aggy said, too many people have become accustomed to as many restrictions as possible at the detriment of other factors. We need to get a grasp that we will live with this and there’s going to be a risk in the future as not everyone will want to be vaccinated.

[Aggy 750]

I don’t think there’s much more hesitancy in younger age groups than the middle aged groups. Of course fewer have been vaccinated as they’ve only been able to get vaccinated for a very short period of time. There’s also a lack of slots available so the uptake might appear slow. A friend of mine in Stockport, 30, had to wait four weeks or go to Huddersfield (almost an hour away, despite living within a 7 minute train journey of the second largest city in the country).

Where there might be some concern is over the AZ blood clots. As said on here previously, if you’re under 30, especially if you’re female, the likelihood of dying from blood clots from the AZ vaccine is not much different to the risk of dying from covid. I waited an extra week for a Pfizer jab.

Restrictions on entrance without jabs etc won’t work medium / long term and people won’t stand for it. If we’re already saying flu is likely to be more of a problem this year than covid, where’s the justification for banning people without covid jabs from doing things if we aren’t also going to ban old people without flu jabs? Then where do you end - any infectious disease could add to pressure on hospitals.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Aggy

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

Just found out that my 2nd AZ, that I thought would be end of July, was actually scheduled for this week 

But it is getting delayed until next week, when I am on holiday. I'll be nearly as far from home as is possible to be on Iceland when the AZ is being done 

And that might be the last AZ we have. I will try to get a local jab, or ask if I can get a different vaccine. Failing that, I might need to fly home for a day 

🤔

[ricardo 7,339]

2 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Just found out that my 2nd AZ, that I thought would be end of July, was actually scheduled for this week 

But it is getting delayed until next week, when I am on holiday. I'll be nearly as far from home as is possible to be on Iceland when the AZ is being done 

And that might be the last AZ we have. I will try to get a local jab, or ask if I can get a different vaccine. Failing that, I might need to fly home for a day 

🤔

Don't stand too close to that volcano😉👍

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

43 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Don't stand too close to that volcano😉👍

 

I don't think anyone can get too close at the moment,  the lava has already cut off one walking path and is headed for the south coast road!

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

56 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Don't stand too close to that volcano😉👍

 

He's going shopping not on holiday😁

[ricardo 7,339]

National

11625 - 27

Tuesday is usually the big day of the week.

Vax numbers unavailable

Hospital Patients         1378

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Don't know whats up but can't seem to post screenshots anymore.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,339]

[ricardo 7,339]

No update to England vaccinations. Following an IT issue reported to the NHS on 21 June, it has not been possible to update vaccination figures for England. UK totals only include updates from Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. More

Last updated on Tuesday 22 June 2021 at 4:00pm

[Well b back 3,186]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

With most doses in the U.K. now being Pfizer we should be ok for 19/7. 
I still think you guys in the Oxford club will be given a dose of Pfizer as soon as our new order begins to arrive.

I can also confirm there will be boosters now as the major venues up here have been sending emails today cancelling private functions as ‘ they will be vaccinating well into the new year ‘. Their words not mine.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

43 minutes ago, Well b back said:

With most doses in the U.K. now being Pfizer we should be ok for 19/7. 
I still think you guys in the Oxford club will be given a dose of Pfizer as soon as our new order begins to arrive.

I can also confirm there will be boosters now as the major venues up here have been sending emails today cancelling private functions as ‘ they will be vaccinating well into the new year ‘. Their words not mine.

Thanks, that’s good news I’d say.

[Barbe bleu 812]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

This makes no sense.  Where is it from?

The hazard ratio for 2 doses is higher in Pfizer than for 1, the figures should be the other way around or we should stop at one dose surely?

If this is a pucker source I suspect the confidence intervals tell quite a lot.  The one for for Pfizer delta 2 jabs is somewhere  between 'it gives an amazing response and you are better off going without any jab than having 2 of these'.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

11625 - 27

Tuesday is usually the big day of the week.

Vax numbers unavailable

Hospital Patients         1378

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Don't know whats up but can't seem to post screenshots anymore.

 

 

Pretty steep plateau Ricardo.

Just more painters getting nearer corners at the moment.

What if the cases are higher on say 15 July than they were last week?

Where do we go?

[ricardo 7,339]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

This makes no sense.  Where is it from?

The hazard ratio for 2 doses is higher in Pfizer than for 1, the figures should be the other way around or we should stop at one dose surely?

If this is a pucker source I suspect the confidence intervals tell quite a lot.  The one for for Pfizer delta 2 jabs is somewhere  between 'it gives an amazing response and you are better off going without any jab than having 2 of these'.

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/479607266/Effectiveness+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+hospital+admission+with+the+Delta+(B.1.617.2)+variant.pdf/1c213463-3997-ed16-2a6f-14e5deb0b997?version=1.4&t=1623689315431&download=true

[Aggy 750]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Pretty steep plateau Ricardo.

Just more painters getting nearer corners at the moment.

What if the cases are higher on say 15 July than they were last week?

Where do we go?

Think people need to start getting past infections. Even the government have said hospitalisations and deaths are what’s important. 

The infections have been going up for weeks. The hospital/death “lag” has had more than enough time to have caught up. Pre-vaccines the deaths and hospitalisations would already have been increasing significantly (and would already be significantly higher than they are now we have vaccines). But they’re not. Vaccines clearly working, hospitals not at risk of being overwhelmed, tens of thousands more vaccinated by 15 July. 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Aggy

[Essjayess 307]

53 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Think people need to start getting past infections. Even the government have said hospitalisations and deaths are what’s important. 

The infections have been going up for weeks. The hospital/death “lag” has had more than enough time to have caught up. Pre-vaccines the deaths and hospitalisations would already have been increasing significantly (and would already be significantly higher than they are now we have vaccines). But they’re not. Vaccines clearly working, hospitals not at risk of being overwhelmed, tens of thousands more vaccinated by 15 July. 

Cannot really compare this 3rd wave with the first 2 waves as the circumstances are vastly different. First 2 waves brought on the necessary lockdowns, we did not have vaccinations, the variants were different.

This 3rd wave has come at a time when  vaccinations are getting higher each day, but...because of that this wave is increasing without increasing lockdown, yet this Delta variant is more transmissable..so thats the difference. What is now definte is that both hospital admissions and deaths are increasing AND speeding up..admisions 2 or 3 weeks ago were at a slow pace...now its  nearly at a moderate  rate. Deaths a couple weeks ago had been at stable or steady level...now they are rising slowly. We just cannot say how much the increase of speed will be in the rise factor of these two most important sectors

Without doubt vaccination has curtailed Delta to a big extent, without vax it would have been scarily rampant  here. But no one knows to what extent the situation will be a few weeks from now..we are trying to get back to some semblance of normality, yet knowing the short history of this awful virus so far should tell us caution is still needed for a time yet or maybe for longer  even.

[Upo 91]

Double vaxxes and high level of past infections are keeping deaths down. Not forever. It's the same delay as in every wave. Too many unvaxxed or 1x vaxxed. A lot if young people will become crippled by long covid.

Delta is not the worst we'll see.  High level of infections guarantee emergence of more resistant variants. The virus is evolving into an absolute beast and we're acting like it's over and vaxxes will solve the problem forever.

I fully expect a variant to emerge within next 3 months that renders some lower-tier vaxxes ineffective vs hospitalization and death. If AZ is one of those vaxxes, we are f*****.

Edited June 22, 2021 by Upo

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

On 20/06/2021 at 00:08, Well b back said:

It was a massive coup to procure the Pfizer vaccines from a German lab 2ith cast iron contracts that guaranteed our early supplies and has saved so many lives. 
 

Is that the same Pfizer that have just done a deal with Germany to provide ( and manufacture ) 1.8 billion Pfizer doses. Unfortunately the war of nationalism killed and carries on killing 10’s of thousands around the world, with an estimated 1.2 billion vaccine doses that could have been manufactured and exported being wasted. 
To quote Johnson in June 2020 any Country ( and there are now plenty of them ) that vaccinate their citizens below the age 50 other than health workers and extremely vulnerable before the same is done throughout the world would be ‘ immoral ‘. 
If only we had followed your mate Ivor Cummins.

I read on this very thread when we started vaccinating that many posters, among them was your good self, were saying we must also vaccinate the third world before we start vaccinating the under 50s in the UK. Of course, that has quietly been forgotten as we discover the need to both ensure double-jabs and the under 50s to get jabbed in order that we can escape from lockdowns while the threat of new variants still remains.

I no longer hear the call to vaccinate the third-world so loudly these days, so I guess vaccine nationalism takes many forms. I'm also delighted for Germany that they have finally woken up to see, as we did, that it is better for a nation to secure its supplies of vaccine instead of relying on the slothful and wasteful EU to procure the vaccines on a nation's behalf. Are the French still waiting for their vaccine to be approved? I don't know, I've given up caring about the French and other nations of the EU, and I'm pretty sure most people feel the same as I do.

I don't know much about 1.2 billion Pfizer vaccines being wasted either as I don't follow this subject as closely as others. But I do know that my government, whom I hold accountable to delivering to the UK, have been massively successful in vaccine procurement, delivery and getting it into citizens arms. Perhaps some of those wasteful nations could take a leaf out of the UK's book to see how to do the job properly. 

Covid deaths currently make up 0.8% of all UK deaths, and a fraction of deaths caused by influenza. The pandemic is virtually over in the UK

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

On 21/06/2021 at 01:28, Surfer said:

In large part because one of the two major political parties and it’s media allies have been actively campaigning AGAINST vaccinations for months. The data is already showing a higher infection rate for the Delta variant in States having the misfortune to be run by that party… 

The responsibility lies with the President. This President is unable to manage the task of vaccinations - unlike the previous incumbent.

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

On 21/06/2021 at 12:18, Well b back said:

For anyone that follows my postings you will know I how I love Sarah Gilbert and Andrew Pollard who spent the last year and a half developing a vaccine ‘ to benefit the world ‘. Their vaccine was never meant to vaccinate under 50’s in rich nations until over 50’s across the world were vaccinated. The huge amounts of Oxford that should have been manufactured around the world for Covax ect have never materialised with a lot of the Western world in particular the US, India and the U.K. keeping what they manufactured for themselves. The US in particular have the ability to manufacture tens of millions of doses, but those they do have were simply left to rot, although since the G7 meetings this does seem to be changing with 2.5 million doses sent to Thailand as a for instance. India were to be the biggest manufactures but they decided given their circumstances no AZ vaccine was leaving India. China and Russia of course have their own vaccines and after giving plenty away for political gain are now giving compulsory vaccines to their own populations, China have so far given in excess of 1 billion doses to their citizens and nobody knows the Russian numbers as they keep these secret.

In the meantime the mRna vaccines mainly Pfizer and Moderna together with the Johnson and Johnson one dose have become the Western worlds vaccines of choice. With regards efficacy Pfizer in Israel has all reduced COVID dramatically even though their take up rate only reached 60% even though they are now fully open they only record about 25 cases per day and deaths are very rare. We have just bought 60 million doses of Pfizer and the EU have done a deal to manufacture and purchase 1.8 billion doses of Pfizer. The US can make endless amounts of Pfizer and Moderna that dwarf the EU figures, and have no intention ( as things stand ) of ever regulating other vaccines. I will be controversial and even go as far as saying that when rates are quoted the results of the AZ and Pfizer are being combined rather than quoted separately. This applies to the catching of COVID rather than hospitalised and deaths.

It is my understanding that 1.2 billon extra doses could have been made and distributed worldwide by now, but we can’t turn back the clock. The western world seems to have made its choice but has the ability to manufacture 10’s of millions of the Oxford vaccine each month. Why don’t we now ( the western world ) start giving back the dream of Sarah Gilbert and Andrew Pollard and get those vaccines manufactured and exported around the world. Let’s hope personal, political or financial gain do not stop us. We must also be aware that China are not far away from vaccinating all their citizens, once they have done that they will have no hesitation in providing vaccines that the western world does not.

 

Because this is what happens when a bumbling geriatric gets voted in as the most powerful man on earth. If he was really on the ball he would have gotten all that 1,8 billion vaccines manufactured and distributed around the world. But as he has to take afternoon naps it sadly isn't going to happen.

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

On 21/06/2021 at 08:30, horsefly said:

And let's not forget Sunentra Gupta and the Great Barrington bollox. According to her and her lock-down sceptic pals the virus was "on its way out" in May 2020. 

Well, she was correct wasn't she? If you looked at any of the measures in March/April 2020 then you can clearly see that covid was on its way out in May. And it continued to be out all the way until October when it began rising again. Which funnily enough is exactly what Ivor Cummings predicted would happen in May 2020 as he claimed there was a seasonal factor involved. Which there clearly is, even if we have yet to identify what the root cause of the seasonal factor is.

[Well b back 3,186]

27 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I read on this very thread when we started vaccinating that many posters, among them was your good self, were saying we must also vaccinate the third world before we start vaccinating the under 50s in the UK. Of course, that has quietly been forgotten as we discover the need to both ensure double-jabs and the under 50s to get jabbed in order that we can escape from lockdowns while the threat of new variants still remains.

I no longer hear the call to vaccinate the third-world so loudly these days, so I guess vaccine nationalism takes many forms. I'm also delighted for Germany that they have finally woken up to see, as we did, that it is better for a nation to secure its supplies of vaccine instead of relying on the slothful and wasteful EU to procure the vaccines on a nation's behalf. Are the French still waiting for their vaccine to be approved? I don't know, I've given up caring about the French and other nations of the EU, and I'm pretty sure most people feel the same as I do.

I don't know much about 1.2 billion Pfizer vaccines being wasted either as I don't follow this subject as closely as others. But I do know that my government, whom I hold accountable to delivering to the UK, have been massively successful in vaccine procurement, delivery and getting it into citizens arms. Perhaps some of those wasteful nations could take a leaf out of the UK's book to see how to do the job properly. 

Covid deaths currently make up 0.8% of all UK deaths, and a fraction of deaths caused by influenza. The pandemic is virtually over in the UK

Lol I suspect you only read the posts you want to read, I have never changed my stance.

Its 1.2 billion doses of Oxford not made and or exported as you well know. Just for the record in the morality stakes the U.K. refuse to realise their export figures of vaccine so I suggest it’s zero, the EU ( fair play to them ) have exported 245 million doses. The French plant is now being used to manufacture Pfizer as the EU are manufacturing 1.8 billion doses, but let’s ignore the facts.

Hows Ivor Cummins and Alex Bellfield getting on ?

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Lol I suspect you only read the posts you want to read, I have never changed my stance.

Its 1.2 billion doses of Oxford not made and or exported as you well know. Just for the record in the morality stakes the U.K. refuse to realise their export figures of vaccine so I suggest it’s zero, the EU ( fair play to them ) have exported 245 million doses. The French plant is now being used to manufacture Pfizer as the EU are manufacturing 1.8 billion doses, but let’s ignore the facts.

Hows Ivor Cummins and Alex Bellfield getting on ?

I've never mentioned a word about Alex Bellfield. Perhaps you are confusing me with someone else? Besides, this is a thread about covid.

[Well b back 3,186]

4 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Well, she was correct wasn't she? If you looked at any of the measures in March/April 2020 then you can clearly see that covid was on its way out in May. And it continued to be out all the way until October when it began rising again. Which funnily enough is exactly what Ivor Cummings predicted would happen in May 2020 as he claimed there was a seasonal factor involved. Which there clearly is, even if we have yet to identify what the root cause of the seasonal factor is.

Ivor Cummings used charts designed by a 9 year old schoolboy for his homework and claimed they were published paper, he didn’t even know when the flu season began and finished, thank god Johnson didn’t use his model, even though if we are  to believe those close to him he wanted to.

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Ivor Cummings used charts designed by a 9 year old schoolboy for his homework and claimed they were published paper, he didn’t even know when the flu season began and finished, thank god Johnson didn’t use his model, even though if we are  to believe those close to him he wanted to.

Instead we went with Ferguson who single-handedly decimated animal farming in the UK based on a cack-handed model that even expert modellers said was a pile of junk.

[Well b back 3,186]

37 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

The responsibility lies with the President. This President is unable to manage the task of vaccinations - unlike the previous incumbent.

Lol please check the facts, definition of fact, something that really happened.

 

[Well b back 3,186]

Did you have 2 pints tonight instead of your usual one

[horsefly 4,275]

5 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Well, she was correct wasn't she? If you looked at any of the measures in March/April 2020 then you can clearly see that covid was on its way out in May. And it continued to be out all the way until October when it began rising again. Which funnily enough is exactly what Ivor Cummings predicted would happen in May 2020 as he claimed there was a seasonal factor involved. Which there clearly is, even if we have yet to identify what the root cause of the seasonal factor is.

Simply dumb beyond belief. I presume you support her view that we had pretty much achieved herd immunity by May too.