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4 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Sorry but I don't agree.  In the UK we have a 65m population and we will never know the full extent of Covid infections with full accuracy at any time.  There are different sources of data and we need to look at them all to evaluate how it is going.  At least in the UK we have relatively reliable data sources.

 

The ONS survey is a random selection of people across the country, a bit like an opinion poll.  They have increased the numbers who participate.  It takes time for everyone to do the tests and return them, then they have to check all the results and calculate their projection across the whole population, and then publish it.  So this is a good picture of the Covid position but it's always significantly  out of date by the time we get it.

 

The daily tests numbers are not a random sample across the whole population, but they are more up to date than the ONS data and in the UK we're doing a consistently extremely high number of tests, hence trends in those numbers do give a good indication of how Covid is developing.

 

The numbers in hospital are ultimately crucial in giving pointers towards how badly the latest wave is actually affecting people and whether there is a risk of the NHS being overloaded, and this information is always reasonably up to date.

 

The ZOE app has the advantage that there are over 1m regular users and the information is turned around much more quickly.  It is sensible for them to regularly recalibrate this against the ONS in terms of how they try to project the data they receive across the whole population.

 

For me, you look at all of these and particularly important right now are the number of people going into hospital and the number in hospital at any one time.  And IMO the data support the current government approach of keeping things as they are, not opening up more but not closing down either.  And of course pushing out those jabs to over 18s as fast as possible.

Don't disagree with most of this - except that a random sample is the only valid figure of the true spread. Zoe tries to calibrate to it but is itself trying to identify a moving target that has changed its spots. The daily figures need smoothing as a minimum (the rolling 7 day - ONS is generally 2 weeks I recall ) but are by necessity self selecting. Let hope it stays at lower rates. 

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Grandson told to self isolate with us after his mate's girlfriend tested positive. They all went to Newquay on Sunday to watch the England game.

He has no symptoms and has had two clear lateral flow tests. And his mate tested negative.

That means Mrs KG and I are free to carry on as normal.

But cases have gone up to 60 from 7 a week ago.

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37 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Grandson told to self isolate with us after his mate's girlfriend tested positive. They all went to Newquay on Sunday to watch the England game.

He has no symptoms and has had two clear lateral flow tests. And his mate tested negative.

That means Mrs KG and I are free to carry on as normal.

But cases have gone up to 60 from 7 a week ago.

Twenty thousand Cornishmen will know the reason why.

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49 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Grandson told to self isolate with us after his mate's girlfriend tested positive. They all went to Newquay on Sunday to watch the England game

What was your grandson doing with his mates girlfriend? 😉

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4 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

What was your grandson doing with his mates girlfriend? 😉

Well it is Nookie!

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

9055 - 9

rate of increase drops for fifth straight day. Now lowest since June 2nd.

Local

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image.thumb.png.f4bbfba26ae4cf76ca8902ca674d723f.png

Vax numbers still not kicking on much.

Noticeable when we should be accelerating vaccinations it’s going the other way!

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5 hours ago, ricardo said:

The rate of increase has more than halved in last seven days which usually signals near peak.

Bolton peaked three weeks ago, Blackburn 2 weeks.

One reason why new infections have increased continually is not just about NW England but also Scotland, which has not seemingly got the attention that Bolton, Blackburn etc have had. Right across the Lowlands, from Glasgow to Edinburgh and other areas like Ayrshire the increase has been every bit as much as Lancashire.

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12 hours ago, Indy said:

Noticeable when we should be accelerating vaccinations it’s going the other way!

Last night on the news they said that we only have circa 1.5m doses per week for 1st jabs, so that ties in with the drop in vaccinations.

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Good news that numbers on the Zoe app in Wales are better than England and particularly Scotland reflecting possibly the higher level of vaccination in Wales. Very encouraging news about efficacy of both main vaccines after two doses against delta making me feel more confident about the way this latest wave might progress. Keep them jabs coming, shame that the vaccine numbers don’t seem to be pushing up as we had hoped. 

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39 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good news that numbers on the Zoe app in Wales are better than England and particularly Scotland reflecting possibly the higher level of vaccination in Wales. Very encouraging news about efficacy of both main vaccines after two doses against delta making me feel more confident about the way this latest wave might progress. Keep them jabs coming, shame that the vaccine numbers don’t seem to be pushing up as we had hoped. 

There has obviously been a restricted supply due to not using AZ on younger people.

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12 hours ago, Essjayess said:

One reason why new infections have increased continually is not just about NW England but also Scotland, which has not seemingly got the attention that Bolton, Blackburn etc have had. Right across the Lowlands, from Glasgow to Edinburgh and other areas like Ayrshire the increase has been every bit as much as Lancashire.

Yes, it seemed a stupid decision to me when Scotland relaxed restrictions at the start of last week when it was clear their case numbers were rising, and I said so on here at the time, but for some reason the decisions of the Scottish government don't attract much scrutiny and their mistakes are not picked up on.

 

In England it certainly hasn't been perfect, but at the moment IMO the approach is sensible - not opening up any further, but equally not reimposing national restrictions, and keeping a careful eye on things.  Obviously our vaccine campaign has been run by people who really know what they're doing and I'm relieved it's now got to anyone over 18, but given the AZ can't be used for under 30s it's not surprising there are constraints.

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Good news that numbers on the Zoe app in Wales are better than England and particularly Scotland reflecting possibly the higher level of vaccination in Wales. Very encouraging news about efficacy of both main vaccines after two doses against delta making me feel more confident about the way this latest wave might progress. Keep them jabs coming, shame that the vaccine numbers don’t seem to be pushing up as we had hoped. 

Indeed.

Israel have 81% of adults double dosed ( all Pfizer ) and only have that 19% and 2.6 million children unvaccinated. Their take up in the younger groups was getting low so they introduced green passports and most then came forward. They felt in the adult population any adult not yet vaccinated was unlikely to get vaccinated so they lifted all restrictions completely 1st June to vaccinated and unvaccinated. The only restriction is that in small enclosed places you must wear a mask, but even that is now being looked at.

Their case numbers are below 20 per day and deaths average 2 per week. It is expected assuming children are not vaccinated that ‘ herd immunity ‘ will be reached by the end of the year. Their Pfizer quoted efficacy rates are fast approaching 100%.

They are the ongoing data for Pfizer so if immunity begins to shrink we will probably hear from Israel first. 

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6 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes, it seemed a stupid decision to me when Scotland relaxed restrictions at the start of last week when it was clear their case numbers were rising, and I said so on here at the time, but for some reason the decisions of the Scottish government don't attract much scrutiny and their mistakes are not picked up on.

 

In England it certainly hasn't been perfect, but at the moment IMO the approach is sensible - not opening up any further, but equally not reimposing national restrictions, and keeping a careful eye on things.  Obviously our vaccine campaign has been run by people who really know what they're doing and I'm relieved it's now got to anyone over 18, but given the AZ can't be used for under 30s it's not surprising there are constraints.

Sure I will get some stick for saying this but in the rich countries Pfizer, Moderna mainly and Johnson and Johnson have become the vaccines of choice. 

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41 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Sure I will get some stick for saying this but in the rich countries Pfizer, Moderna mainly and Johnson and Johnson have become the vaccines of choice. 

Think you are right - if you can afford them then Pfizer and Moderna are clearly the vaccines of choice, and for very good reasons - this is not to say that some of the other vaccines are not good because they clearly are but just not quite as good and with something this serious if you can afford the best then that is what the rich countries will go for.

The Oxford vaccine is remarkable both in terms of its low cost and deliverability in countries with less well developed health systems but I think for the richer countries its credibility has been significantly damaged by both Boris Johnson and AZ themselves which is a great shame, although hopefully it won't inhibit its deployment in the third world too much.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Sure I will get some stick for saying this but in the rich countries Pfizer, Moderna mainly and Johnson and Johnson have become the vaccines of choice. 

I'm sure you're right, I've not kept up to speed with the level of side effects being reported for the different vaccines.  But let's face it, the level of side effects have been tiny given the vast number of vaccine doses given worldwide and I'm pretty sure we'd have heard about it if any of the others did produce common side effects.  But it does seem AZ has some side effects among some groups with very low risk from Covid, such as women in their 20s with no underlying conditions.  So for them it clearly makes sense to have Pfizer not AZ, and I work with some people in that age group who have made exactly that decision this week, and it's fair enough.  I had AZ and I was happy it was available at the time.

 

Plenty of other medicines have side effects which we ignore just because of familiarity e.g. someone mentioned the risks from a long course of aspirin but no one would blink an eye at being prescribed that.

 

 

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I mentioned a couple of hours ago the latest Israel data released yesterday which included how they gently persuaded the younger population to have the vaccine ie you can’t do particular things unless you have both vaccinations. As if by chance the government have just announced how they are looking at less restrictions for those double vaccinated going abroad.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I mentioned a couple of hours ago the latest Israel data released yesterday which included how they gently persuaded the younger population to have the vaccine ie you can’t do particular things unless you have both vaccinations. As if by chance the government have just announced how they are looking at less restrictions for those double vaccinated going abroad.

Latest from the BBC (minutes ago) indicates the spread amongst the youngest. I am becoming more hopeful now that vaccinations are opening up to over 18's that we will see quite a turning point. Hopefully, only a very 'shallow' third wave as a result.

The growth rate is slowing too.

 

 

The Covid-19 epidemic in England is growing, scientists tracking it say - with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.

The analysis, from the React-1 study, looked at the period 20 May to 7 June.

However, tentative signs in the latest daily data suggest growth may be beginning to slow.

The rollout of vaccinations to younger people is key to reducing further spread, researchers from Imperial College London say.

Since last year, the team has been inviting a representative sample of the population to take Covid swab tests. The researachers found:

  • of the 108,911 people tested, 135 were positive - a rise from 0.1% to 0.15%
  • most cases were among five- to 12-year-olds and 18- to 24-year-olds
  • the reproduction (R) number, of people the average infected person would infect, was an estimated 1.44

The analysis also suggests a strengthening link between cases and hospital admissions, which is also reflected in the government's daily coronavirus data.

The number of new infections is rising, with a seven-day average of 7,888 cases. The UK recorded 9,055 cases on Wednesday - the highest number since 9,985 were reported on 25 February.

The number of hospitalisations has also increased, with 1,177 patients in hospital as of Monday. However, daily deaths remain low, with a weekly average of nine deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

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11,007 cases reported in the UK

It still makes no odds to me how these daily numbers bounce around and shouldn't be overinterpreted good or bad. ONS random sampling please.

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3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Latest from the BBC (minutes ago) indicates the spread amongst the youngest. I am becoming more hopeful now that vaccinations are opening up to over 18's that we will see quite a turning point. Hopefully, only a very 'shallow' third wave as a result.

The growth rate is slowing too.

 

 

The Covid-19 epidemic in England is growing, scientists tracking it say - with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.

The analysis, from the React-1 study, looked at the period 20 May to 7 June.

However, tentative signs in the latest daily data suggest growth may be beginning to slow.

The rollout of vaccinations to younger people is key to reducing further spread, researchers from Imperial College London say.

Since last year, the team has been inviting a representative sample of the population to take Covid swab tests. The researachers found:

  • of the 108,911 people tested, 135 were positive - a rise from 0.1% to 0.15%
  • most cases were among five- to 12-year-olds and 18- to 24-year-olds
  • the reproduction (R) number, of people the average infected person would infect, was an estimated 1.44

The analysis also suggests a strengthening link between cases and hospital admissions, which is also reflected in the government's daily coronavirus data.

The number of new infections is rising, with a seven-day average of 7,888 cases. The UK recorded 9,055 cases on Wednesday - the highest number since 9,985 were reported on 25 February.

The number of hospitalisations has also increased, with 1,177 patients in hospital as of Monday. However, daily deaths remain low, with a weekly average of nine deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Sensible analysis for me. So as we know, it’s a race between getting the 18+ range vaccinated twice and the level of spread - and how far do cases translate into hospitalisation now, given the most vulnerable should be vaccinated.

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8 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Sensible analysis for me. So as we know, it’s a race between getting the 18+ range vaccinated twice and the level of spread - and how far do cases translate into hospitalisation now, given the most vulnerable should be vaccinated.

Yes, and you'd hope that in a months time (interestingly, around the expected relaxation date) some 75% of the population will have had two jabs. It should be a pivot point.

I read Whitty today also expects a 4th phase of increase in winter. I would hope we will hear soon how the government might plan for this (boosters etc) because Winter will come round soon enough 😳 anyway).

 

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National

11007 - 19

rate of increase as yesterday

numbers bumped up by big input from Scotland

Local

image.png.2f157b80f29b1f0c2be973e32007b7f5.png

image.thumb.png.b3d0490ef603d368aef600de3fa02a95.png

image.thumb.png.3d9564eb82b316bca98fc2322646e102.png

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35 minutes ago, Van wink said:

North Norfolk seems to have become a hotspot with Zoe? 
 

image.png

Oh dear.

I was in the Wiveton Bell for lunch

Edited by ricardo

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Yes, and you'd hope that in a months time (interestingly, around the expected relaxation date) some 75% of the population will have had two jabs. It should be a pivot point.

I read Whitty today also expects a 4th phase of increase in winter. I would hope we will hear soon how the government might plan for this (boosters etc) because Winter will come round soon enough 😳 anyway).

 

I did wonder if the sudden daily increase above any trends was simply schools back after half term amd testing again.

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18 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I did wonder if the sudden daily increase above any trends was simply schools back after half term amd testing again.

Birmingham just advised on local news recommendation of essential travel only as a 40% increase in last week ( mainly delta ).
A big problem is the symptoms of Delta seem very different to the original symptoms, with delta apparently it is more common to have a runny nose, sore throat or headache. Plenty of people therefore happily out and about without testing spreading their hay fever symptoms.

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7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Birmingham just advised on local news recommendation of essential travel only as a 40% increase in last week ( mainly delta ).
A big problem is the symptoms of Delta seem very different to the original symptoms, with delta apparently it is more common to have a runny nose, sore throat or headache. Plenty of people therefore happily out and about without testing spreading their hay fever symptoms.

Agreed. I'd alluded to the same thing yesterday as changed its spots....

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