Corona Virus main thread

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Why do they have to put dates on it? Why couldn't they just say until everyone over18 has had a least one jab?

Johnson is fond of remarks like oven ready, no way we will delay Brexit past October, we are on top of it etc. He looks an idiot to all except those that voted for him and even they must admit in private he just says what he thinks appropriate at the time.

Now he says it will not go past July. Why? He doesn't know that. You and your G7 mates didn't observe one bit of social distancing so you cannot be certain you haven't spread it around Cornwall. Just keep it shut Boris. 

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

4 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Why do they have to put dates on it? Why couldn't they just say until everyone over18 has had a least one jab?

Johnson is fond of remarks like oven ready, no way we will delay Brexit past October, we are on top of it etc. He looks an idiot to all except those that voted for him and even they must admit in private he just says what he thinks appropriate at the time.

Now he says it will not go past July. Why? He doesn't know that. You and your G7 mates didn't observe one bit of social distancing so you cannot be certain you haven't spread it around Cornwall. Just keep it shut Boris. 

Totally agree KG. He says whatever is popular at the time without any thought to the practicality, legality or long term consequences. That's as true of his Covid responses as Brexit. Both are fiascos.

[CANARYKING 634]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'll have to look for more detail - it was reported a couple of days ago along the lines that existing Pfizer vaccinations might be showing signs of weakening (i.e. the body forgetting) . More to follow but always thought likely.

Guess it stemmed form Pfizers own CEO words a couple of days ago.

The Pfizer CEO said a need for booster shots to existing vaccines has not yet been determined, but studies were running to find out whether it was necessary. 

But based on the data, he said Pfizer is anticipating people will need a booster shoot — essentially a third dose — within eight to 12 months of their second shot.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1.full

I thought everyone knew that a booster in the Autumn is required 

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

35 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

I thought everyone knew that a booster in the Autumn is required 

The original point in passing was that newer variants aside the early days Pfizers (and others) vaccination efficacy may be waning naturally - and in the absence of a booster this autumn many of the apparently elderly, vulnerable double vaccinated may be in fact nothing of the sort by this autumn! August is 8 months on from January etc!

Edited June 15, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Mark .Y. 351]

5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Why do they have to put dates on it? Why couldn't they just say until everyone over18 has had a least one jab?

Johnson is fond of remarks like oven ready, no way we will delay Brexit past October, we are on top of it etc. He looks an idiot to all except those that voted for him and even they must admit in private he just says what he thinks appropriate at the time.

Now he says it will not go past July. Why? He doesn't know that. You and your G7 mates didn't observe one bit of social distancing so you cannot be certain you haven't spread it around Cornwall. Just keep it shut Boris. 

I think it is as much to help business as anything else KG. Businesses do need something to aim for, something to prepare for etc.

So, set a date, if it has to be delayed because that is what the data says to do, then fine - delay it. If the data is looking good as we are approaching the date, businesses can be confident they will be allowed to open and can start arranging for staff, stock etc.

That's my take on it anyway.   

[ricardo 7,328]

National

7673 - 10

rate of increase drops for third straight day.

Local

nothing happening. The N&N has one inpatient.

Slightly disappointing vax numbers again.

 

[ricardo 7,328]

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

I think it is as much to help business as anything else KG. Businesses do need something to aim for, something to prepare for etc.

So, set a date, if it has to be delayed because that is what the data says to do, then fine - delay it. If the data is looking good as we are approaching the date, businesses can be confident they will be allowed to open and can start arranging for staff, stock etc.

That's my take on it anyway.   

Its the build up and then delay that is infuriating some though MarkY.

[CANARYKING 634]

8 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'll have to look for more detail - it was reported a couple of days ago along the lines that existing Pfizer vaccinations might be showing signs of weakening (i.e. the body forgetting) . More to follow but always thought likely.

Guess it stemmed form Pfizers own CEO words a couple of days ago.

The Pfizer CEO said a need for booster shots to existing vaccines has not yet been determined, but studies were running to find out whether it was necessary. 

But based on the data, he said Pfizer is anticipating people will need a booster shoot — essentially a third dose — within eight to 12 months of their second shot.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1.full

I thought everyone knew that a booster in the Autumn is required 

[CANARYKING 634]

Only 132627 first dose, nowhere near enough

[Indy 3,283]

8 hours ago, kirku said:

The issue is that it doesn't matter for huge swathes of the population. They simply don't care.

They'll just tell you that Corbyn would've been worse and that's the end of it.

How many times have I heard that! To be honest there’s no way of knowing how anyone else would have done…..we’ll never know you can only judge how this government have done, the Delta variant could have been slowed by shutting down the air corridor straight away not allowing 40+ thousand enter this country.

[Indy 3,283]

8 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'll have to look for more detail - it was reported a couple of days ago along the lines that existing Pfizer vaccinations might be showing signs of weakening (i.e. the body forgetting) . More to follow but always thought likely.

Guess it stemmed form Pfizers own CEO words a couple of days ago.

The Pfizer CEO said a need for booster shots to existing vaccines has not yet been determined, but studies were running to find out whether it was necessary. 

But based on the data, he said Pfizer is anticipating people will need a booster shoot — essentially a third dose — within eight to 12 months of their second shot.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1.full

Common knowledge for a long while, I was told back in March that the older you get the quicker the Pfizer vaccine tends to require a booster at around 12 months, younger around 60 and under tend to last longer so there’s talk of up to 18 months, something to do with the immune system response.

But there’s been talk of over 50’s having the booster at the same time as a Flu Jab.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

23 minutes ago, Indy said:

Common knowledge for a long while, I was told back in March that the older you get the quicker the Pfizer vaccine tends to require a booster at around 12 months, younger around 60 and under tend to last longer so there’s talk of up to 18 months, something to do with the immune system response.

But there’s been talk of over 50’s having the booster at the same time as a Flu Jab.

 

48 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

I thought everyone knew that a booster in the Autumn is required 

Erh. Guys I think you both missed the original query. Yes everybody thought we'd need a booster but as I understand it they now have data showing the efficacy falling away. That what's new.

[Indy 3,283]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

 

Erh. Guys I think you both missed the original query. Yes everybody thought we'd need a booster but as I understand it they now have data showing the efficacy falling away. That what's new.

Not really new news, my toxicology friend told me about this ages ago, as almost all vaccines have a falling efficacy and need boosters. I was told it was likely to be 12 to 18 months and both myself and WBB were talking about this way back last year on the Come On Sarah thread.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

54 minutes ago, Indy said:

Not really new news, my toxicology friend told me about this ages ago, as almost all vaccines have a falling efficacy and need boosters. I was told it was likely to be 12 to 18 months and both myself and WBB were talking about this way back last year on the Come On Sarah thread.

See SteveN5848 request above then you'll understand. Perhaps you can give him the data.

Edited June 15, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Indy 3,283]

20 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

See SteveN5848 request above then you'll understand. Perhaps you can give him the data.

Sorry YF,  You’ve lost me. As far as I can see, the link is from December 20 with figures compiled before then probably the same as WBB and the rest of us were talking about last year! 

Of course there’s going to be a fluid process with bigger numbers vaccinated in all age groups and better more accurate requirements for length of time required between doses will be updated. It’s like vaccine development and our understanding will continue to be better.

 

Edited June 15, 2021 by Indy

[kirku 1,332]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

How many times have I heard that! To be honest there’s no way of knowing how anyone else would have done…..we’ll never know you can only judge how this government have done, the Delta variant could have been slowed by shutting down the air corridor straight away not allowing 40+ thousand enter this country.

They're still going on about Diane Abbott - despite the fact we actually have Patel, whose own grasp of figures (and, much more importantly, morality) is about as good as her ability to not conduct unauthorised meetings with foreign governments..

Edited June 15, 2021 by kirku

[Well b back 3,180]

As much as I think this should always have been the case, I understood we were told this would never happen. Apparently negotiations are ongoing to make it compulsory for NHS staff as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57492264

[ricardo 7,328]

Usually higher numbers Wednesday as the weekend positives get processed. SAGE will be getting twitchy if they don't go uo much.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

12 hours ago, Indy said:

Sorry YF,  You’ve lost me. As far as I can see, the link is from December 20 with figures compiled before then probably the same as WBB and the rest of us were talking about last year! 

Of course there’s going to be a fluid process with bigger numbers vaccinated in all age groups and better more accurate requirements for length of time required between doses will be updated. It’s like vaccine development and our understanding will continue to be better.

 

I can see we're talking about different things. What we're looking for and Steve asked for is real published data (links) about the longterm roll off of specifically mRNA vaccine efficacy as alluded too. Since the vaccines have only been in significant use for 6 months such data if it exists is very new. Currently I can't identify it ... possibly Covid immunity however acquired may actually be very longlived as per its cousin SARs (and there are some articles in Nature which would support that view - good news). This is not about reoptimising a vaccine for new variants but how well the body remembers. 6 months or 6 or 60 years. That is the new data that people want to know.

[sonyc 5,481]

Seems we were too late in responding to data on the Delta Variant and putting India on the red list. Not news as such but still damning to read and so disappointing given what was in the news for weeks beforehand and what we know about protecting borders / travel restriction.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/22-days-delay-india-variant-24326152#ICID=Android_TMNews

 

[Indy 3,283]

50 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I can see we're talking about different things. What we're looking for and Steve asked for is real published data (links) about the longterm roll off of specifically mRNA vaccine efficacy as alluded too. Since the vaccines have only been in significant use for 6 months such data if it exists is very new. Currently I can't identify it ... possibly Covid immunity however acquired may actually be very longlived as per its cousin SARs (and there are some articles in Nature which would support that view - good news). This is not about reoptimising a vaccine for new variants but how well the body remembers. 6 months or 6 or 60 years. That is the new data that people want to know.

Indeed, YF, as I mentioned I was told by my friend involved in the data analysis last years that the longevity of the Pfizer vaccine would be at best 18 months for age groups 65 and above due to a number of things and there would be a need to vaccinate on an annual or possibly biannually basis until the vaccine was developed to identify the nucleus rather than the s protein. 
From what I’ve seen there’s no new data on longevity yet, I’m sure studies are ongoing.
That’s why I linked the two as the next development of vaccine could be better at longevity as well as far better protection.

On a side note I was told by a friend I met that there’s new treatments being developed that will also help those with more severe reaction to Covid. So lots of good news.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Indy

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Usually higher numbers Wednesday as the weekend positives get processed. SAGE will be getting twitchy if they don't go uo much.

Yes, Wednesdays are always a good day to compare with the previous Wednesday to see how things are developing.

 

So on June 9th we had 7,540 new cases reported, 184 people admitted to hospital and there were 1,059 people in hospital with Covid. For me these are the key numbers at the moment.

 

The Zoe app numbers seem a bit all over the place at the moment - Nottignham had reached a low point where it was showing about 50 active cases which then shot up to about 5,000 active cases a week or two back, but now they're showing that as a peak of under 3,600 cases on the chart, and now showing 2,100 active cases as of today.  It says they are updating their trendlines.  I'm not sure how the Zoe app is working at the moment, I've always felt it was a useful alternative source of data because it has more people inputting data than any other source, but I'm not sure right now.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

ONS numbers as ever are the only meaningful tally especially with the new Delta variant symptoms being different (more like a cold), more centred in the young and many people being reluctant to isolate (hence test). Zoe tries to calibrate itself against ONS as the gold standard.

Todays confirmed numbers can be up down left or right. Makes no difference.

[ricardo 7,328]

National

9055 - 9

rate of increase drops for fifth straight day. Now lowest since June 2nd.

Local

Vax numbers still not kicking on much.

[Herman 9,696]

It looks like it's gone up to me or am I missing something? 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

4 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes, Wednesdays are always a good day to compare with the previous Wednesday to see how things are developing.

 

So on June 9th we had 7,540 new cases reported, 184 people admitted to hospital and there were 1,059 people in hospital with Covid. For me these are the key numbers at the moment.

 

The Zoe app numbers seem a bit all over the place at the moment - Nottignham had reached a low point where it was showing about 50 active cases which then shot up to about 5,000 active cases a week or two back, but now they're showing that as a peak of under 3,600 cases on the chart, and now showing 2,100 active cases as of today.  It says they are updating their trendlines.  I'm not sure how the Zoe app is working at the moment, I've always felt it was a useful alternative source of data because it has more people inputting data than any other source, but I'm not sure right now.

So comparing the numbers to last Wednesday.

 

Cases 7,500 increased to 9,000 - increasing but not a huge amount over a week.

Hospital admissions 184 down to 173 (effectively continuing to be flat).

Numbers in hospital 1,059 slightly up to 1,177, again not a huge increase week on week.

 

Therefore still a solid basis for being cautious but we don't need to panic.

 

Also great to see in Nottingham they're now offering vaccines to all over 21s and they hope to be able to extend this to all over 18s tomorrow, which is the ultimate solution.

[ricardo 7,328]

Admissions low and falling.

[ricardo 7,328]

5 minutes ago, Herman said:

It looks like it's gone up to me or am I missing something? 

The rate of increase has more than halved in last seven days which usually signals near peak.

Bolton peaked three weeks ago, Blackburn 2 weeks.

Edited June 16, 2021 by ricardo

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

ONS numbers as ever are the only meaningful tally especially with the new Delta variant symptoms being different (more like a cold), more centred in the young and many people being reluctant to isolate (hence test). Zoe tries to calibrate itself against ONS as the gold standard.

Todays confirmed numbers can be up down left or right. Makes no difference.

Sorry but I don't agree.  In the UK we have a 65m population and we will never know the full extent of Covid infections with full accuracy at any time.  There are different sources of data and we need to look at them all to evaluate how it is going.  At least in the UK we have relatively reliable data sources.

 

The ONS survey is a random selection of people across the country, a bit like an opinion poll.  They have increased the numbers who participate.  It takes time for everyone to do the tests and return them, then they have to check all the results and calculate their projection across the whole population, and then publish it.  So this is a good picture of the Covid position but it's always significantly  out of date by the time we get it.

 

The daily tests numbers are not a random sample across the whole population, but they are more up to date than the ONS data and in the UK we're doing a consistently extremely high number of tests, hence trends in those numbers do give a good indication of how Covid is developing.

 

The numbers in hospital are ultimately crucial in giving pointers towards how badly the latest wave is actually affecting people and whether there is a risk of the NHS being overloaded, and this information is always reasonably up to date (although inherently there is a delay between new infections and hospitalisations resulting from those infections).

 

The ZOE app has the advantage that there are over 1m regular users and the information is turned around much more quickly.  It is sensible for them to regularly recalibrate this against the ONS in terms of how they try to project the data they receive across the whole population.

 

For me, you look at all of these and particularly important right now are the number of people going into hospital and the number in hospital at any one time.  And IMO the data support the current government approach of keeping things as they are, not opening up more but not closing down either.  And of course pushing out those jabs to over 18s as fast as possible.

Edited June 16, 2021 by It's Character Forming
adding a bit