Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,346]

National

7742 - 3

Local

Disappointing vax numbers.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

59 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Needless panic

 

Don't see it as a panic. We are nearly there. I don't know of anyone who isn't doing virtually normal things. I can't afford an Andrew Lloyd Webber musical.

[Mark .Y. 351]

7 hours ago, Well b back said:

Many areas are now short of volunteers to help administer the vaccination centres, maybe they just didn't have enough people to run it.
Definitely not, so many volunteers you are restricted to 4 - 6 hour slots on a day only. So many it’s virtually impossible to get shifts.

It might be in your area Wbb but it certainly isn't down here. Last Friday I had a list of 44 different shifts in vaccination centres around my area that were available to work. I'm pretty sure that when I had an email listing various areas that are short of volunteers, there were definitely regions in and around Norwich. The last email I had about it said that they had opened recruitment country-wide so I do think there has to be something of a problem.

[Mark .Y. 351]

8 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

They had the volunteers but no vaccine

But was it a decision taken for efficiency sake ??  I honestly don't know but it is a possibility - no ??

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Needless panic

 

Its the difference between being stone cold sober and responsible and not reckless.

Edited June 14, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Mark .Y. 351]

2 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

It might be in your area Wbb but it certainly isn't down here. Last Friday I had a list of 44 different shifts in vaccination centres around my area that were available to work. I'm pretty sure that when I had an email listing various areas that are short of volunteers, there were definitely regions in and around Norwich. The last email I had about it said that they had opened recruitment country-wide so I do think there has to be something of a problem.

Just checked again, I now have 66 shifts available to me, though that is over the next 2 weeks.

And that isn't 66 people required, many of the further out shifts require 6 or 7 volunteers and currently only have 1......... so there are an awful lot of vacancies down here. 

[ricardo 7,346]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Its the difference between being stone cold sober and responsible and reckless.

Its the difference between reality and pissing your pants over predictions of 100k cases per day.

Hospitalisations and deaths should be what you look at.

[Mark .Y. 351]

Copy and paste of a section of email received last Friday..................

 

Please help us recruit   The programme urgently needs more Steward Volunteers to support at local vaccination sites in most areas of England to keep up with the increased demand.   Do you have any family or friends who can help out?   Any students who are home from University for the summer?   We need anyone who is fit and healthy and has some time to support the NHS with the vaccination drive.   Please direct anyone you know to the Steward Volunteer signup form on our website.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Its the difference between reality and pissing your pants over predictions of 100k cases per day.

Hospitalisations and deaths should be what you look at.

Whatever you want to believe Ricardo. Luckily more sensible people are in charge (even Johnson) and can see the writing on the wall than some of the Twiterati that you quote.

It's a question of the magnitude of risks - with insufficient data (or worse the emerging deteriorating grimmer looking data).  

Get it under control (flat / diminishing with vaccination) and then we can unlock more. At the moment its exponentially increasing, escaping vaccination.

[ricardo 7,346]

15 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Don't see it as a panic. We are nearly there. I don't know of anyone who isn't doing virtually normal things. I can't afford an Andrew Lloyd Webber musical.

Yes, almost like normal times as far as I can see.

A pleasant alfresco lunch at Dunwich today for me and Mrs R.

Smoked Salmon and Prawns open sandwich, very nice.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes, almost like normal times as far as I can see.

A pleasant alfresco lunch at Dunwich today for me and Mrs R.

Smoked Salmon and Prawns open sandwich, very nice.

 

Scones from the coastguard cottage are worth a nibble

[Mark .Y. 351]

56 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Whatever you want to believe Ricardo. Luckily more sensible people are in charge (even Johnson) and can see the writing on the wall than some of the Twiterati that you quote.

It's a question of the magnitude of risks - with insufficient data (or worse the emerging deteriorating grimmer looking data).  

Get it under control (flat / diminishing with vaccination) and then we can unlock more. At the moment its exponentially increasing, escaping vaccination.

Come on YF...........you're happy to "like" posts quoting Twiterati that have views that match yours...........at least this guy quotes figures and trends...............and I speak as one who has always advocated a 2 week delay to the full opening up

[Herman 9,714]

Did Johnson put on sad face?

[Daz Sparks 1,150]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Hospitalisations and deaths should be what you look at.

True, but case increases should not be ignored. I agree the vaccine appears to be holding deaths and hospitalisations down, but at some point the increasing case graph will drag the other 2 up. Also large case numbers increase the likelihood of mutations which could reduce the vaccine efficacy.

A few weeks to see which way it's going is little sacrifice to be on the safe side.

[ricardo 7,346]

52 minutes ago, Herman said:

Did Johnson put on sad face?

They spent 45 minutes doing his hair and smartening him up, then 5 minutes before he went on they dragged him through a hedge backwards.

So all as normal.

[sonyc 5,492]

1 hour ago, Daz Sparks said:

True, but case increases should not be ignored. I agree the vaccine appears to be holding deaths and hospitalisations down, but at some point the increasing case graph will drag the other 2 up. Also large case numbers increase the likelihood of mutations which could reduce the vaccine efficacy.

A few weeks to see which way it's going is little sacrifice to be on the safe side.

I'm agreeing with you here DS. I reckon it IS about erring on the side of caution and build in a little bit of time. A bit like, in football terms, running down the clock. Or...game management if you like.

I'm surprised @ricardo that you're not on the same page here whilst I'm in football speak mode. You'll often advise and guide posters (based on your long experience of course of watching us) that you have to get your defence right - build from the back. And then if your 'goals conceded' start to get out of hand well....... So, I think there is a kind of parallel point to make here. We ought to use a safety first approach and not get caught out.

There are signs things are going the right way and as KG has mentioned, whilst there are some further restrictions to relax, for most people (the double vaxed especially) they can more or less do what they want - pubs open, shops open etc. A few businesses and sectors wanting to re-open are in the main the worst affected (theatres, wedding venues and so on). 

So, maybe I might be able to persuade you then? A chance for extra time? 😉

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

Yes, almost like normal times as far as I can see.

A pleasant alfresco lunch at Dunwich today for me and Mrs R.

Smoked Salmon and Prawns open sandwich, very nice.

 

Don't tell Roy Keane

[ricardo 7,346]

I'm not against caution, I'm against the total panic being induced by completely off the wall predictions. The only way there could be a massive third wave with 100k cases a day, NHS being overrun etc is if the vaccinations don't work. The modelers have been wrong so many times, I'm amazed anybody still puts any trust in them.

Covid is never going away, at some stage we are going to have to accept this and live with it. If we wait too long there will be nothing worth going back too anyway. Mask wearing and social distancing isn't a problem, apart from that I'm more or less living life normally.

 

 

 

 

[sonyc 5,492]

Well I can agree with the fact that we are going to have to learn to live with this. I think we are more prepared now than a few months ago.

This 4 week delay I'm hearing will reverse the figures fully vaccinated...from 57% currently to 75% in a month. That makes quite a difference.

Should England go and win the Euro's I'm not sure we will see much socially distancing! But I suppose, cross that bridge if it comes to it.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

4 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Come on YF...........you're happy to "like" posts quoting Twiterati that have views that match yours...........at least this guy quotes figures and trends...............and I speak as one who has always advocated a 2 week delay to the full opening up

Hi Mark.

Those of us that can see the trends (which as tonights 'don't scare the kids' press conference shows, are not at all good at present even with the current restrictions) are not panicking, not zero-covidites, not pant-wetters, not trapped by 'stockholm syndrome'  and not even risk adverse as per recent labels. What we are trying is to navigate the best path through this current phase of the pandemic  - get most of youngest vaccinated and then we will have achieved as near as feasible 'herd immunity' with the fewest number of early deaths, long term post-covid chronic illnesses and yes not overwhelming the NHS. Only a few weeks ago it was stated that if the Delta variant was 50% or more transmissive than 'Kent' we could be facing a third wave different, but as severe as the 2nd. Well the delta variant is indeed worse than that and more severe too - worse, signs even of early fading efficacy of Pfizer in the double vaccinated. It is time for cool heads not reckless impatient premature relaxations. Tens or even hundreds of thousands of lives could be blighted by our decisions.  I'm sure you know this anyhow.

This also belatedly seems to be the view of the government - indeed my neighbors son has (18 years old) has just been texted (not vulnerable) and able to book a first jab in Norwich next week. I wondered if that was the the governments 'panic' to stop transmission asap and have all such double jabbed by July well before University returns!

It's a race between the vaccines and the virus - barring a new deadlier or vaccine resistant variant the vaccines will eventually win out but that doesn't mean the virus can't make hay in the meantime. Lots on unknowing vulnerable people out there for it (as its ongoing exponential rise shows - no real signs yet of saturation) .

As to the twitterati - I think you'll find I tend to quote the 1st hand primary evidence and scientists and not the pseudo-scientific commentators and their cherry picked politically slanted facts and underlying agenda. I'm a 'data' man which at the moment is short term 'bad'. Lastly I understand the political difficulties the government makes for itself in being populist and unable to tell unpalatable truths until forced - but that's its fault not mine!

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

13 hours ago, dj11 said:

I totally blame Johnson for this. For his own ends, he did not put India on the red list, and up until 2 weeks ago, red list travellers were crushed in the arrivals hall at Heathrow along other passengers. We are 15 months into this pandemic and he is still behaving like an idiot. For all his nationalistic flag waving, shouting about how we are ahead of Europe, and all of this could not have happened without Brexit, just look at what’s happening in Germany. It didn’t even need to go to penalties, and yet people still defend him. It feels as if I am in a parallel universe. 

Yep, it feels to me you're in a parallel universe

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

19 hours ago, dj11 said:

I totally blame Johnson for this. For his own ends, he did not put India on the red list, and up until 2 weeks ago, red list travellers were crushed in the arrivals hall at Heathrow along other passengers. We are 15 months into this pandemic and he is still behaving like an idiot.

Absolutely this ^

It has been blunder after after blunder from the idiot Johnson. Delaying the unlock yesterday was clearly the correct decision but probably only because the idiot had no choice and of course it was only necessary because of Johnson's stupidity in allowing 40,000 people to flood in from India whilst the virus was rampant over there.

[Mark .Y. 351]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Hi Mark.

Those of us that can see the trends (which as tonights 'don't scare the kids' press conference shows, are not at all good at present even with the current restrictions) are not panicking, not zero-covidites, not pant-wetters, not trapped by 'stockholm syndrome'  and not even risk adverse as per recent labels. What we are trying is to navigate the best path through this current phase of the pandemic  - get most of youngest vaccinated and then we will have achieved as near as feasible 'herd immunity' with the fewest number of early deaths, long term post-covid chronic illnesses and yes not overwhelming the NHS. Only a few weeks ago it was stated that if the Delta variant was 50% or more transmissive than 'Kent' we could be facing a third wave different, but as severe as the 2nd. Well the delta variant is indeed worse than that and more severe too - worse, signs even of early fading efficacy of Pfizer in the double vaccinated. It is time for cool heads not reckless impatient premature relaxations. Tens or even hundreds of thousands of lives could be blighted by our decisions.  I'm sure you know this anyhow.

This also belatedly seems to be the view of the government - indeed my neighbors son has (18 years old) has just been texted (not vulnerable) and able to book a first jab in Norwich next week. I wondered if that was the the governments 'panic' to stop transmission asap and have all such double jabbed by July well before University returns!

It's a race between the vaccines and the virus - barring a new deadlier or vaccine resistant variant the vaccines will eventually win out but that doesn't mean the virus can't make hay in the meantime. Lots on unknowing vulnerable people out there for it (as its ongoing exponential rise shows - no real signs yet of saturation) .

As to the twitterati - I think you'll find I tend to quote the 1st hand primary evidence and scientists and not the pseudo-scientific commentators and their cherry picked politically slanted facts and underlying agenda. I'm a 'data' man which at the moment is short term 'bad'. Lastly I understand the political difficulties the government makes for itself in being populist and unable to tell unpalatable truths until forced - but that's its fault not mine!

Hi YF,

I can appreciate your views and, to be honest, they're pretty close to mine.

I just felt that there were two lots of tweets posted (neither of them from virologists or their ilk) and you "Liked" one but were pretty dismissive of the other - which did contain data suggesting that things aren't as bad as they initially seem at the moment. Whether that is true or not, I don't know, I guess time will tell. 

I do think the next week is pretty crucial, we've been around 7-8000 cases a day for a few days now so if we don't see any great rise from that. I think it will pretty soon start petering out. Of course - it may go entirely the other way 🤔

Edited June 15, 2021 by Mark .Y.

[CANARYKING 634]

Johnson seemed totally confused when answering question yesterday, not sure I trust him to sort this now, I fear 19/7 will not be the end of it, 18 and over will not be double dosed by then so I foresee yet another extension, then another, ............

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It has been blunder after after blunder from the idiot Johnson. Delaying the unlock yesterday was clearly the correct decision but probably only because the idiot had no choice and of course it was only necessary because of Johnson's stupidity in allowing 40,000 people to flood in from India whilst the virus was rampant over there.

Just (accidentally) caught a bit of Gove trying to lie his way out of this and failing absolutely miserably, an absolutely risible performance 😂

It is astonishing what poor liars Johnson and Gove are, given all the practice they've had, and equally astonishing they imagine they are going to be believed when they try and pretend that well documented events/decisions/indecisions and facts generally didn't actually happen.   😂

[SteveN8458 61]

11 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 - worse, signs even of early fading efficacy of Pfizer in the double vaccinated.

Hi YF

Can you give a link to where this comes from pls, I'm sure you are correct Just I would like to read the details

[kirku 1,332]

2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Just (accidentally) caught a bit of Gove trying to lie his way out of this and failing absolutely miserably, an absolutely risible performance 😂

It is astonishing what poor liars Johnson and Gove are, given all the practice they've had, and equally astonishing they imagine they are going to be believed when they try and pretend that well documented events/decisions/indecisions and facts generally didn't actually happen.   😂

The issue is that it doesn't matter for huge swathes of the population. They simply don't care.

They'll just tell you that Corbyn would've been worse and that's the end of it.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Hi YF,

I can appreciate your views and, to be honest, they're pretty close to mine.

I just felt that there were two lots of tweets posted (neither of them from virologists or their ilk) and you "Liked" one but were pretty dismissive of the other - which did contain data suggesting that things aren't as bad as they initially seem at the moment. Whether that is true or not, I don't know, I guess time will tell. 

I do think the next week is pretty crucial, we've been around 7-8000 cases a day for a few days now so if we don't see any great rise from that. I think it will pretty soon start petering out. Of course - it may go entirely the other way 🤔

I treat 'likes' and quotes as different things. I can 'like' the gist of many things without liking all of it 😉.  If I quote or put up something I try and be accurate so as not to mislead. Fact not myths.  (in fact I'm then mortified if I'm wrong but happy to admit that when it does of course happen).

I noted some criticism of the forward modelling. Frankly the modelling is good - we know largely how the virus behaves (give it an inch and it will take a mile) and we have a much better idea now of vaccine responses as well. The large difficulty is to model how people react, how they follow (or don't) follow the rules - different ages, communities, religions, social groups even and then on top we have the vagaries of the weather and other unforeseen events or acts of gods/devils like politicians fiddling and yes frankly misleading.

Anyway - let hope this 4 weeks get's us back in control.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

18 minutes ago, SteveN8458 said:

Hi YF

Can you give a link to where this comes from pls, I'm sure you are correct Just I would like to read the details

I'll have to look for more detail - it was reported a couple of days ago along the lines that existing Pfizer vaccinations might be showing signs of weakening (i.e. the body forgetting) . More to follow but always thought likely.

Guess it stemmed form Pfizers own CEO words a couple of days ago.

The Pfizer CEO said a need for booster shots to existing vaccines has not yet been determined, but studies were running to find out whether it was necessary. 

But based on the data, he said Pfizer is anticipating people will need a booster shoot — essentially a third dose — within eight to 12 months of their second shot.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1.full

Edited June 15, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Well b back 3,190]

Always worth reminding ourselves the missing part of the jigsaw is indeed treatments alongside vaccines. This is what Sir Simon himself has to say. One of those in trials is indeed ventolin.

Here come 'neutralising monoclonal antibodies' - a new treatment

Sir Simon adds that he has asked the health service to "gear up" for future Covid treatments, set to come online in the next few months.

"We expect that we will begin to see further therapies that will actually treat coronavirus and prevent severe illness and death.

"Today I'm asking the health service to gear up for what are likely to be a new category of such treatments - so-called neutralising monoclonal antibodies - which are potentially going to become available to us within the next several months."

He adds that in order for this treatment to be administered, "the full excellence" of local NHS services and integrated care systems will need to be harnessed.

"We're going to need community services that are able to deliver through regional networks this type of infusion in patients before they are hospitalised - typically within a three-day window from the date of infection."