Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,381]

7 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Seems to be a very few areas being hit hard, obviously the Bolton / Blackburn area by far the worst.  When you consider that just those 4  particular areas at the top of that  list account for almost 10% of the entire UK new infections then right now the general UK new infctions rate remains very low.

If you listened to the Covid update and the contributions from JVT it seems we are well on top of it. We should know more within the next four or five days. There was some interesting info on how they supressed the S.A. variant in London.

[Herman 9,746]

My apologies Ricardo. I misread you post and thought you were trying to push the "vaccine hesitant" angle favoured by the Mail etc.

At least I got you to write out unvaccinated numerous times.👍

[Indy 3,297]

What not many people have thought about is that we’ve been in hard lockdown till 5 weeks ago, it coincided with the Indian festival where millions of Indians decided to get together regardless of the consequences. Some either returned or came here on flights before the government closed the door! Too late as somewhere some people didn’t follow the correct procedure in isolating themselves and it’s now spreading, as restrictions themselves eased here! 
This is where the false figures of this viruses effective spread being up to 50% higher weren’t right! We’re slowly learning how much worse if at all this variant is and until we do, we always knew there might be pockets of virus increases and we’d need to react.

I’ll be happier come next week when we see real impact rather than keep listening to so many doom merchants who can’t wait to say I told you so!

[ricardo 7,381]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

My apologies Ricardo. I misread you post and thought you were trying to push the "vaccine hesitant" angle favoured by the Mail etc.

At least I got you to write out unvaccinated numerous times.👍

No problem Herman, the reasons seem obvious and JVT laid it out fairly comprehensively this afternoon. They really are pushing hard for everyone to get both jabs. For everyone to be safe we need to be as close to 100% as possible. Unfortunately I have personal experience of a few that are still reticent of having the jab.

(notice how I sustituted the word jab)😉

[sonyc 5,508]

12 minutes ago, Indy said:

What not many people have thought about is that we’ve been in hard lockdown till 5 weeks ago, it coincided with the Indian festival where millions of Indians decided to get together regardless of the consequences. Some either returned or came here on flights before the government closed the door! Too late as somewhere some people didn’t follow the correct procedure in isolating themselves and it’s now spreading, as restrictions themselves eased here! 
This is where the false figures of this viruses effective spread being up to 50% higher weren’t right! We’re slowly learning how much worse if at all this variant is and until we do, we always knew there might be pockets of virus increases and we’d need to react.

I’ll be happier come next week when we see real impact rather than keep listening to so many doom merchants who can’t wait to say I told you so!

Agree with this Indy. My relative alarm I think is due to Zoe reporting a doubling of cases in the last 24 hours in our area (over 400 now, yesterday and for a week just trickling up by a few cases ...around 200) ..... and our district is not one of the 23 areas identified for the Indian variant.  I tend to use our Zoe numbers as a guide / useful litmus test (because the trends seem to show earlier than nationally reported figures). As you say, let's just see.

The Burn-Murdoch and Pagel Twitter feeds are informative and show increasing rates in younger (school age) children. The latter in Bolton as the study.

Edited May 19, 2021 by sonyc

[Barbe bleu 819]

49 minutes ago, Indy said:

This is where the false figures of this viruses effective spread being up to 50% higher weren’t right! 

In fairness the official line was that 50% more transmissibility was a 'realistic possibility '  to put it another way the experts thought there was a 60% chance it is not 50% more transmissible.

 

 

[Indy 3,297]

7 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

In fairness the official line was that 50% more transmissibility was a 'realistic possibility '  to put it another way the experts thought there was a 60% chance it is not 50% more transmissible.

 

 

Why quote any figures till we’re sure? 

[BroadstairsR 2,150]

21 minutes ago, Indy said:

Why quote any figures till we’re sure? 

Agreed.

I seem to recall that the Kent variant was once labelled as being 70% more transmittable than the original.

The the same was said about the South African variant being more easaly spread than that.

Now the Indian variant is supposed to be various percentages more spreadable than both.

What exactly does it mean?

The Kent (UK) variant hit us by surprise and hit big.

Not so that from SA. The Indian version seems to have made sure that the positive figures remain stubbornly around the 2, 000+ mark, but surely now with the vaccine uptake in full swing it is just hospital admissions and fatalities that should most concern us now.

Infection rates monitored locally can ideally be dealt with by local measures.

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by BroadstairsR

[Barbe bleu 819]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

Why quote any figures till we’re sure? 

Its sometimes important to make assessments bases on what you have. If you wait for the full rigour of data based science and 100% certainty before you make decisions then you have already missed the boat.

Question is should these early assessments be released.  Most people would say yes.  

Edited May 19, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Indy 3,297]

22 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Its sometimes important to make assessments bases on what you have. If you wait for the full rigour of data based science and 100% certainty before you make decisions then you have already missed the boat.

Question is should these early assessments be realised.  Most people would say yes.  

Disagree on this, there’s no need to quote any figures till it’s been confirmed. All it does give credence to scaremongering and press. 

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

Two points about what I see as wishful thinking complacency.

Any positive test data is likely at least a week after initial infection i.e. if the doubling time is 7 days then it's already doubled from the number you measure and is already doubling again as you collate the data.

Secondly people forget what this exponential growth actually looks like on the ground. It takes several weeks for the numbers to escape the noise but once it reaches thousands it is very very quick to reach tens and then hundreds of thousands.

Given that it is spreading quickly amongst the 16M or so unvaccinated (largely youngsters) and with very relaxed or relaxing restrictions it seems to me odds on that we are all going to have our own personal Covid 'challenge'.

I hope I'm wrong.

[BroadstairsR 2,150]

By the same token, the Indian variant was first detcted in the Uk over one month ago:

77 cases @ 14th. April.

Also, the vaccine takes up to 14 days to become effective to any degree, and that's just the first dose..

Infection rates will need to stabilise to indicate success though, but hospitalisations and fatalities are the crucial factor when fearing the worst.

[sonyc 5,508]

15 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Two points about what I see as wishful thinking complacency.

Any positive test data is likely at least a week after initial infection i.e. if the doubling time is 7 days then it's already doubled from the number you measure and is already doubling again as you collate the data.

Secondly people forget what this exponential growth actually looks like on the ground. It takes several weeks for the numbers to escape the noise but once it reaches thousands it is very very quick to reach tens and then hundreds of thousands.

Given that it is spreading quickly amongst the 16M or so unvaccinated (largely youngsters) and with very relaxed or relaxing restrictions it seems to me odds on that we are all going to have our own personal Covid 'challenge'.

I hope I'm wrong.

I'm with you about this just seeing the rates rise (just a touch 200+ three days ago and for the last two weeks, then 425 yesterday and now today 619 in our district). That is some growth in numbers and we have barely come out of lockdown.

I have a feeling the talk in the papers / media might be underplaying the seriousness. I get that we need to get back to life and cannot hide under stones forever. Just hope that the hopeful signals about hospitalisation we are picking up are maintained. Clear though from Zoe, rates are steeply rising. I'm surprised too to read comments on here that it's over. If there's one thing we don't need reminding about Covid, it's that it seems to have the last word.

[A Load of Squit 5,159]

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm with you about this just seeing the rates rise (just a touch 200+ three days ago and for the last two weeks, then 425 yesterday and now today 619 in our district). That is some growth in numbers and we have barely come out of lockdown.

I have a feeling the talk in the papers / media might be underplaying the seriousness. I get that we need to get back to life and cannot hide under stones forever. Just hope that the hopeful signals about hospitalisation we are picking up are maintained. Clear though from Zoe, rates are steeply rising. I'm surprised too to read comments on here that it's over. If there's one thing we don't need reminding about Covid, it's that it seems to have the last word.

Yes SC - We are playing politics in fact - to delay last Monday by even a week or two for caution / clarity was politically impossible for 'no return' Johnson. Simply I think it's the same mistake as before  - delay and dither and hope for the best.  

I really do hope I'm wrong but this could very well be Johnson's Bolsonaro moment - ideology costing peoples lives.

If this Indian variant does become all encompassing with few restrictions / social distancing to limit spread, certainly at first in the younger unvaccinated cohorts and the weather inclement unlike last year - and the vaccines even on 2 doses 'only' 95 to 97% effective I shudder to think what the 3% of 20 to 30million will do to the health service. A cleansing of the Augean stables no less. 

Let's hope I'm wrong as I'm not a gambler.

[sonyc 5,508]

55 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes SC - We are playing politics in fact - to delay last Monday by even a week or two for caution / clarity was politically impossible for 'no return' Johnson. Simply I think it's the same mistake as before  - delay and dither and hope for the best.  

I really do hope I'm wrong but this could very well be Johnson's Bolsonaro moment - ideology costing peoples lives.

If this Indian variant does become all encompassing with few restrictions / social distancing to limit spread, certainly at first in the younger unvaccinated cohorts and the weather inclement unlike last year - and the vaccines even on 2 doses 'only' 95 to 97% effective I shudder to think what the 3% of 20 to 30million will do to the health service. A cleansing of the Augean stables no less. 

Let's hope I'm wrong as I'm not a gambler.

I'm unsure this is a Bolsonaro moment but only because it doesn't seem to matter what is said or done too much. Secondly, I think Johnson is fairly untouchable and despite mistakes in this pandemic, he isn't the only head of state who has been side stepped by the pandemic. There is one main mantra which is the speed of the vaccination programme too, far ahead of anything Bolsonaro has achieved. I will be interested in reading ahead though when this is all reviewed and investigated just to what extent ideology has driven policy (and the relationship or interplay with 'science').

Someone stated on BBC today that had Starmer have been in power we may well have tied ourselves to the EMA? It's possible we would have done. That would have put us back I'm sure.

Overall, I'm of the view however (leaving Covid aside just slightly) that we are not getting much transparency in our politics. I found myself agreeing with Minghella here a month or so ago...as well as a follow up response by one Andrew Cooper.

I do want to believe Johnson (honestly) but his words seem often to cover quite a nasty side which I've seen. The latest being his comments on farmers (Scottish) needing to be more ambitious...incredible when you think about that! Then, his supposed comments heard by many about bodies "piling high". Not the kind of leader for me, in a pandemic or not.

 

[Well b back 3,199]

2 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

 

 

Being reported all over now. Apparently there was a technical error with track and trace that meant there was no details of positives that were positive in a 3 week period. Major areas hit were Blackburn and Bolton where there was no data. 
 

[sonyc 5,508]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Being reported all over now. Apparently there was a technical error with track and trace that meant there was no details of positives that were positive in a 3 week period. Major areas hit were Blackburn and Bolton where there was no data. 
 

Well, we need a big hitter in then. Someone who has experience of communications, chief exec level. And someone from private industry who can cut through public health bureaucracy. And ..............oh.. ...😐

 

[ricardo 7,381]

National

2874 - 7

minor uptick in cases. 1.2 million tests

Local

still going down but with very low numbers

Big uptick, over 630k with considerable increase in 1st vax numbers.

Edited May 20, 2021 by ricardo

[sonyc 5,508]

Thanks Ricardo. At least now those first jab numbers show a sizeable increase. A bit of a race against time isn't it...think JVT mentioned this.

[ricardo 7,381]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Thanks Ricardo. At least now those first jab numbers show a sizeable increase. A bit of a race against time isn't it...think JVT mentioned this.

Watch the numbers closley for the next few days. The upticks in the outbreak areas are largely counteracted by the general downturn everywhere else. If it escapes the suppression tactics it will become quickly apparent in the numbers.

My impression is that there are sufficient numbers already vax'd in the UK to prevent any large third wave. Nationally there were 16k infections in the previous seven days. Yesterday in France alone there were 19k in one day, 12k in Germany and around 6k in Italy and Spain. They appear to be some way behind us yet are opening up to U.K travellers. If the UK is not yet safe then Europe certainly isn't, holidays in N.Norfolk or Cornwall please.

[ricardo 7,381]

Good news from India.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

Being reported all over now. Apparently there was a technical error with track and trace that meant there was no details of positives that were positive in a 3 week period. Major areas hit were Blackburn and Bolton where there was no data. 
 

Very poor, particularly when transmission has been such a hot topic, clearly the lack of a link between national and local system will have weakened our ability to contain the localised outbreak.

Perversely it adds more reassurance to concerns about increased transmission.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Watch the numbers closley for the next few days. The upticks in the outbreak areas are largely counteracted by the general downturn everywhere else. If it escapes the suppression tactics it will become quickly apparent in the numbers.

My impression is that there are sufficient numbers already vax'd in the UK to prevent any large third wave. Nationally there were 16k infections in the previous seven days. Yesterday in France alone there were 19k in one day, 12k in Germany and around 6k in Italy and Spain. They appear to be some way behind us yet are opening up to U.K travellers. If the UK is not yet safe then Europe certainly isn't, holidays in N.Norfolk or Cornwall please.

Its an odd situation where the UK is seemingly more risk averse than our European neighbours on this one. Politics eh?

[Mark .Y. 352]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

2874 - 7

minor uptick in cases. 1.2 million tests

Local

still going down but with very low numbers

Big uptick, over 630k with considerable increase in 1st vax numbers.

1st dose numbers climbing nicely but overall numbers of injections given is down on the same day last week. Not by much but we are not increasing the total number of jab given

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

For me the bald facts are pretty clear.

We have a highly transmissible variant on the loose. It's already seeded across the UK in many areas.

We have relaxed / abandoned all pretense at social distancing in the last few days apart from the largest of get togethers.

The people most likely to mix, catch and then spread the disease - the under 40's, are largely unvaccinated or only very recently had 1 dose (J & J noted).

There is almost nothing in place to stop the variant spreading through this group at its full R0 speed - as I'm sure it will.

This group will go home and meet indoors with the more elderly parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles let alone work colleagues  (all now fair game) to make sure each and everyone one of us, vaccinated or not, has full 'contact' with the virus.

Have I got anything wrong here? 

Remember apologists to leave Johnson et al in your legacy.

[ricardo 7,381]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Have I got anything wrong here? 

Remember apologists to leave Johnson et al in your legacy.

Come back in a month and tell us why you got it wrong.😉

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Come back in a month and tell us why you got it wrong.😉

I really do hope I've got it wrong. But it's a risk. There seems to me a large risk (not even small) of a major third wave just as deadly as the second if not more so and all for the sake of few weeks caution and/or to get vaccinated more of our younger generation. 

Edited May 20, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Jools 584]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Watch the numbers closley for the next few days. The upticks in the outbreak areas are largely counteracted by the general downturn everywhere else. If it escapes the suppression tactics it will become quickly apparent in the numbers.

My impression is that there are sufficient numbers already vax'd in the UK to prevent any large third wave. Nationally there were 16k infections in the previous seven days. Yesterday in France alone there were 19k in one day, 12k in Germany and around 6k in Italy and Spain. They appear to be some way behind us yet are opening up to U.K travellers. If the UK is not yet safe then Europe certainly isn't, holidays in N.Norfolk or Cornwall please.

Trouble with holidaying in the UK though, Ricardo, is the EU countries are already losing billions in tourism and nigh on 17 million EU jobs are at risk if the British holiday pound holidays at home...

I'm looking forward to my West Country vacation 👍 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

No sign yet of the mass influx of visitors to Cornwall. Yes there are plenty but not the expected and forecasted no room at the inn.

Which is good as our figures are so low and only rise in a hotspot such as a production line.

Of course, we may see a surge in visitors next weekend. After that we go in lockdown because of the ridiculous G7 conference in St Ives.