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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Fascinating - 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/25/eu-leaders-told-bloc-has-sent-21m-covid-vaccine-doses-to-the-uk

Of the 31M doses given here 21M come from Europe (including 1M AZ).

And the worrying bit - 

Meanwhile, the EU’s internal market commissioner, Thierry Breton, is understood to have advised EU ambassadors that the UK’s interest in the jabs in the Netherlands is particularly acute as the government had not stockpiled vaccine for second doses, leaving them in need of production from Europe to fully vaccinate those administered with a first jab.

That would be extremely worrying if true, but also it would be the first time the people running our Vaccine program have put a foot wrong if so.  I find it pretty difficult to believe they would have been giving out record numbers of doses (hitting 800k + last week) while the EU was talking about blocking vaccine exports - it's not that hard to count forward in the calendar 12 weeks.

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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

And there is the conundrum. Easter weekend. How many will look at the low death rate, say increased cases are testing and visit family and friends?

I agree it's got to be a concern.  Having said this, I've not heard a single person say they're going to be meeting up with family, everyone I've talked to is looking forward to having some more freedom back on 12th April hopefully but I've not heard anyone talk about Easter.

 

I think looking ahead there is a limit to how long people are going to be willing to accept lockdown restrictions like we have now, especially people in their 20s and 30s.  There's only so long they're going to wait before restarting their lives.

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Many MPs are against the extension as they believe it is "excessive and disproportionate", Steve Baker, deputy chairman of the COVID Recovery Group of lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs, said.

Is he getting an honorarium for that fancy titled group?

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Given the same paper was reporting a figure of 9 million doses exported to the UK as of 9 march we can conclude either that this is all a load of nonsense or that we have built up a massive stockpile for second doses over the last fortnight 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/10/britain-has-no-ban-on-covid-vaccine-exports-eu-concedes

There is no reason to doubt the 21M. Reported by the EU after their checks.

Its in other papers too including the Telegraph... 26M at risk of 2nd dose in UK etc.

Not sure why you are so defensive.

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14 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

There is no reason to doubt the 21M. Reported by the EU after their checks.

Its in other papers too including the Telegraph... 26M at risk of 2nd dose in UK etc.

Not sure why you are so defensive.

I'm not being defensive. I'm simply pointing out that at least one of three things must  apply 1) these figures are nonsense 2) the earlier figures are nonsense or 3) we imported 12 million doses of pfizer over a two week period.

I hope that (3) applies as it suggests that we are in a really good place to keep the vaccination programme on track regardless of what has been reported in the press.

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4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not being defensive. I'm simply pointing out that at least one of three things must  apply 1) these figures are nonsense 2) the earlier figures are nonsense or 3) we imported 12 million doses of pfizer over a two week period.

I hope that (3) applies as it suggests that we are in a really good place to keep the vaccination programme on track regardless of what has been reported in the press.

Previous numbers were 2nd hand assumptions - these ones now are given by the EU directly valid from 1st December to now. They call it transparency as they've exported in total 77M. Well done.

Our UK supplies are of course a state secret. Zero transparency but obviously we have issues as no significant 1st doses now n April.

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2 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Confused of ...... here, are we saying we haven’t got enough to do the 2nd jab which must be done on time ?

Don’t worry, there will be enough for us all, scare mongering ain’t a great idea but it does happen, there will be sufficient for the 2nd jab.

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46 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Previous numbers were 2nd hand assumptions - these ones now are given by the EU directly valid from 1st December to now. They call it transparency as they've exported in total 77M. Well done.

Our UK supplies are of course a state secret. Zero transparency but obviously we have issues as no significant 1st doses now n April.

The worst possibility for us is that the latest figures are correct, the paper was mistaken in its earlier reports, we have no stockpile and the EU goes nuclear with export bans.  I'm not sure what the truth is and I suspect nor does anyone else.

That being said at 54% vaccinated, two waves behind us and better weather on its way i am not sure it matters that much if we are sticking to the opening up plan

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

How many residents did you lose during the pandemic 

Since March last year, two residents out of 80 in three homes have died from heart disease, VW.

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2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

And there is the conundrum. Easter weekend. How many will look at the low death rate, say increased cases are testing and visit family and friends?

as long as most do sticking mainly to the rules (outside in small numbers) then I don't see any issue.

The longer the numbers stay low, the more the vaccines do the heavy lifting, just gotta keep things in check a couple more months and then we should be over the worst of it all.

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58 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Previous numbers were 2nd hand assumptions - these ones now are given by the EU directly valid from 1st December to now. They call it transparency as they've exported in total 77M. Well done.

Our UK supplies are of course a state secret. Zero transparency but obviously we have issues as no significant 1st doses now n April.

presumably once moderna supplies start arriving they will be all for first doses? Supposedly arriving early April as well

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22 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Confused of ...... here, are we saying we haven’t got enough to do the 2nd jab which must be done on time ?

We export essential ingredient's for the EU's vaccines, CK, but unlike the EU we won't threaten to place an embargo on supplies, hence, there will be enough for second jabs 👍

 

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14 hours ago, Van wink said:

Excellent interview with Jeremy Farrar on the post 8.00 interview on the Today program, highly recommended. Primarily making a plea to those considering export bans not to do so and encouraging UK government to take an international lead and offer a timetable for UK vaccine supplies to start being rolled out to Covax from next month. Have to agree and would love to see this happeneing.

Amused me when he said that up until now the UK has been a "net exporter" of new varients, but travel restrictions now crucial to prevent incoming.

As mentioned and said previously that T and T now working well ( low numbers and more local working ) and coping, another crucial part of our armoury. Dont blow it Boris!!

PHE report to government today that many variants coming in from US, Ireland, France etc, we need to clamp down on this now and add many more countries to the Red list.

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21 minutes ago, Van wink said:

PHE report to government today that many variants coming in from US, Ireland, France etc, we need to clamp down on this now and add many more countries to the Red list.

That they are continuing to come in and have been coming in? Or that they might do so?

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1 hour ago, CANARYKING said:

Confused of ...... here, are we saying we haven’t got enough to do the 2nd jab which must be done on time ?

I wouldn't go that far. Simply we need to slow down in April as the governemt is already doing. There should be lots of vaccines for everybody coming on line soon.

Looks like all of this is in the papers.

 

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14 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

That would be extremely worrying if true, but also it would be the first time the people running our Vaccine program have put a foot wrong if so.  I find it pretty difficult to believe they would have been giving out record numbers of doses (hitting 800k + last week) while the EU was talking about blocking vaccine exports - it's not that hard to count forward in the calendar 12 weeks.

You are still better off having just one jab than none at all.  Of course the optimum would be having the two, and I'm sure we will get them in due course. According to Dr Chris Smith on Five Live last night, even delaying a few more weeks before the second jab is not critical. 

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On 23/03/2021 at 18:46, kick it off said:

Update - now have 70+ kids and a few more staff isolating due to positive cases in my school. Nearly 10% of the school. Chaos.

Update - another positive case in school. 4 in total so far. 38 more kids out isolating.

So we're up to around 110 currently isolating - 15% of the school now.

Edited by kick it off

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40 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Update - another positive case in school. 4 in total so far. 38 more kids out isolating.

So we're up to around 110 currently isolating - 15% of the school now.

at least you've all got 2 weeks off now. Hopefully that helps balance things out a bit while some more vaccine induced immunity hits.

Looks as if R is more or less right on the button at the moment.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

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Daily infections for the 7 day rolling rate have increased by 6.4% in the UK...this must be the 1st increase in daily infections since sometime in January, a bit of a sad thing but not unexpected, given last Friday's abnormally low rate. After around 2 months or more of infections decreasing its always sad to see an increase again, but given kids are back to school, quite a few variants around plus the big infection increase across the EU its to be expected.

I had sure expected this, had seen the  decrease slow to a trickle the last couple weeks, but lets really hope the level out can be kept stable as 5 or 6k cases a day is a vast  difference to the daily 68k we had in early January. But it will be a hard  call, with  businesses expecting a gradual opening up in the near future, its another crossroads time, seeing if we can avert another wave sweeping us.

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2 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

at least you've all got 2 weeks off now. Hopefully that helps balance things out a bit while some more vaccine induced immunity hits.

Looks as if R is more or less right on the button at the moment.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

That's another of Boris' myths I'm afraid - only about 30% of schools break up today - most of us are in until Thursday

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11 minutes ago, kick it off said:

That's another of Boris' myths I'm afraid - only about 30% of schools break up today - most of us are in until Thursday

oh really? My Mrs is a teacher so assumed it was everyone though I realise some don't go along with easter as much. Presume you get 2 weeks off as well though so from next week you'll get your "firebreak" so to speak?

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Just now, Tetteys Jig said:

oh really? My Mrs is a teacher so assumed it was everyone though I realise some don't go along with easter as much. Presume you get 2 weeks off as well though so from next week you'll get your "firebreak" so to speak?

Yeah - I'm just trying to survive until then - partner being heavily pregnant and work being in one of the worst covid hotspots at the moment is not doing me much good! Hopefully the Easter break will calm everything down but transmission is still really high in the area I work so I'm not holding out much hope - baby should come over the easter break and then everything becomes much easier (Covid-wise, not lifestyle wise!!)

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20 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Previous numbers were 2nd hand assumptions - these ones now are given by the EU directly valid from 1st December to now. They call it transparency as they've exported in total 77M. Well done.

Our UK supplies are of course a state secret. Zero transparency but obviously we have issues as no significant 1st doses now n April.

I'm not sure they were second hand assumptions YF.........unless the Guardian is telling porkies, the quote below from their article seems pretty specific to me...........

"According to the latest figures seen by the Guardian and accurate as of 9 March, of the 34,090,287 doses exported from the EU to 31 countries, 9,106,162 went to the UK, 3,917,640 to Canada, 3,134,204 to Mexico, 2,720,210 to Japan and 1,368,900 to Saudi Arabia. Other beneficiaries of EU exports included Hong Kong (1.3m), Singapore (967,030), the US (953,723), Chile (942,825) and Malaysia (751,140)."

 

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1 hour ago, kick it off said:

That's another of Boris' myths I'm afraid - only about 30% of schools break up today - most of us are in until Thursday

Has he said that all schools break up today ? I haven't seen that but would find it strange as it always used to be the Easter weekend was the middle weekend of the two week break but loads of areas no longer do that do they.

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25 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I'm not sure they were second hand assumptions YF.........unless the Guardian is telling porkies, the quote below from their article seems pretty specific to me...........

"According to the latest figures seen by the Guardian and accurate as of 9 March, of the 34,090,287 doses exported from the EU to 31 countries, 9,106,162 went to the UK, 3,917,640 to Canada, 3,134,204 to Mexico, 2,720,210 to Japan and 1,368,900 to Saudi Arabia. Other beneficiaries of EU exports included Hong Kong (1.3m), Singapore (967,030), the US (953,723), Chile (942,825) and Malaysia (751,140)."

 

Those figures are similar to those I’ve seen, in regards to the UK anyway, however of that 9m that came our way almost none of them were the AstraZeneca variety, which is the one that’s caused all the recent commotion. The UKs imports from Europe are from manufacturers that have been keeping up with demand from the EU, which is why their recent statement about not exporting AstraZeneca vaccines until their supply of them increases is largely irrelevant for the UK as the bulk are made domestically. The only thing that may slow down the UK rollout is the shortfall of doses coming from India. 

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31 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Has he said that all schools break up today ? I haven't seen that but would find it strange as it always used to be the Easter weekend was the middle weekend of the two week break but loads of areas no longer do that do they.

When he was talking about schools returning (before they did), he repeatedly said 3 weeks between return and Easter. It was noted at the time this was utterly inaccurate. As I mentioned previously, its about 30% of schools who are breaking up today instead of Thursday.

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