Corona Virus main thread

[Indy 3,284]

It’s a real shame the same 🔔 ends come on here trying to point score on here about deaths! Not unexpected by some of our posters standards. Covid is never a measure of how successful or unsuccessful Brexit is certainly as it has **** all to do with any response.

[Indy 3,284]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

5455 - 104

Local

Great news today and figures certainly back up the battle on Covid is going our way!

[Herman 9,717]

Brexit sucks ****.😀

Anyway, here is some more good Coviddy news.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

Different approach to the Christmas period...

 

Christmas wont have helped but B117 mutation also significant in this I would suggest.

Edited March 1, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,348]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Christmas wont have helped but B117 mutation also significant in this I would suggest.

As can be seen by the way numbers are now going back up in Italy, France etc.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

As can be seen by the way numbers are now going back up in Italy, France etc.

indeed

[sonyc 5,492]

40 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Christmas wont have helped but B117 mutation also significant in this I would suggest.

Indeed, yet as @Well b back noted on this thread a few times, the strain was known about in September, was increasingly apparent to be spreading in November (London) and lots in here voiced their concerns. We waited and we have seen what has happened. Again, for those who voted for this government and feel unhappy criticising I'm not making a political point for the sake of it. Merely that what was foreseen (with many warnings from scientists) was not acted upon with enough severity until the 26th. Political decisions.

Also, any other administration would have made mistakes. Show me any European government that hasn't.

Those mis-judgements have cost additional lives. And too many. All will be raked over later in countless enquiries/ analyses.

I thank whoever it is responsible now for the greater caution. Maybe at long last something has been learnt? I believe so. And this latest government approach gets my support.

.....

(For reference link here to B117... New coronavirus variant: What do we know? - BBC News)

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

 

Edited March 1, 2021 by sonyc

[ricardo 7,348]

27 minutes ago, Van wink said:

indeed

Attempting to score Brexit related points off Worldometer mortality figures is a totally pointless exercise since we know that many countries reported Covid related deaths bare little resemblance to their reported excess deaths for the pandemic period. Italy, to site one example, has around 40% more excess deaths than have been attributed to Covid.

The U.K.'s numbers are probably not far out from reality, although we are all aware anecdotally on this very forum that some peoples relatives deaths have been wrongly attributed to Covid. When this is over we are unlikely to see major differences in most countries who have suffered the full force of the pandemic.

 

Edited March 1, 2021 by ricardo

[sonyc 5,492]

Just now, ricardo said:

Attempting to score Brexit related points off Worldometer mortality figures is a totally pointless execise since we know that many countries reported Covid related deaths bare little resemblance to their reported excess deaths for the pandemic period. Italy, to site one example, has around 40% more excess deaths than have been attributed to Covid.

The U.K.'s numbers are probably not far out from realit, although we are all aware anecdotally on this very forum that some peoples relatives deaths have been wrongly attributed to Covid. When this is over we are unlikely to see major differences in most countries who have suffered the full force of the pandemic.

 

Quite right. Belgium especially have recorded nearly everything as Covid-related hence their figures. Excess deaths is likely to be the best metric I think we all agree. 

Have to say I tire of PMs EU27 v UK numbers game. You can examine graphs and patterns / timings, that's fair enough, but it's not a competition is it. The quality of response is far more helpful. In that respect of course the EU has badly faltered IMHO. It will be useful if they catch up quick as that will help us all in international travel / business / family etc etc.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

4 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Hate is a very strong word...dislike is a better term maybe. Also, as you and KG are throwing stats back, i completely disagree with KG as regarding UK's 120k Covid deaths as a disgrace. Of course there is a difference  between stats of 27 nations and one kingdom, but if stats are being thrown around ok..the 120k deaths in UK is  actually to be expected, and on a par or better than some EU states when  adding in the often neglected but hugely important fact that England is in a league of its own with being the 2nd highest densely populated major nation and the 4th highest population. The very nature of how Covid spreads was always going to mean that here at home we would suffer the highest amounts of deaths in Europe. 120k deaths is very sad and Covid is the disgraceful menace, not any single human being or groups of human beings.

Ess - Whereas the absolute numbers of deaths is obviously population related but a simple excuse of population density doesn't hold up to explain our local problems. The real truth in that as many have pointed out earlier in these threads are poor political decisions about prompt lockdowns and more recently the emergence of variants.

As you also  effectively note we do indeed have one (but not the) highest raw population density in Europe - comparable to Germany but less than say the Netherlands but our normalized death statistics remain significantly higher. Further, the crude population density numbers are of course truly misleading in themselves as vast tracks of other counties may be barren or effectively empty.

The following link gives a better feeling for what they term 'Lived Density' - 

https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

 As you can see Scotland is pretty much towards the bottom of the list but Spain (and the Netherlands still) are at the top ignoring odd balls like Monaco. I suppose it helps explain some of the Spanish CV issues.

I dread to think how high up the list Japan would be so 'Lived' population density can not be a dominating factor alone.

Lastly - keep off Brexit. There are a couple on here who see everything first and last through Brexit or more-so anti-EU (& anybody else) eyes and seem beyond rational discussion. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Yellow Fever
added normalized

[Van wink 2,994]

55 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Attempting to score Brexit related points off Worldometer mortality figures is a totally pointless exercise since we know that many countries reported Covid related deaths bare little resemblance to their reported excess deaths for the pandemic period. Italy, to site one example, has around 40% more excess deaths than have been attributed to Covid.

The U.K.'s numbers are probably not far out from reality, although we are all aware anecdotally on this very forum that some peoples relatives deaths have been wrongly attributed to Covid. When this is over we are unlikely to see major differences in most countries who have suffered the full force of the pandemic.

 

 

59 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Indeed, yet as @Well b back noted on this thread a few times, the strain was known about in September, was increasingly apparent to be spreading in November (London) and lots in here voiced their concerns. We waited and we have seen what has happened. Again, for those who voted for this government and feel unhappy criticising I'm not making a political point for the sake of it. Merely that what was foreseen (with many warnings from scientists) was not acted upon with enough severity until the 26th. Political decisions.

Also, any other administration would have made mistakes. Show me any European government that hasn't.

Those mis-judgements have cost additional lives. And too many. All will be raked over later in countless enquiries/ analyses.

I thank whoever it is responsible now for the greater caution. Maybe at long last something has been learnt? I believe so. And this latest government approach gets my support.

.....

(For reference link here to B117... New coronavirus variant: What do we know? - BBC News)

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

 

That’s a fair summary and we are on the same page, we were aware of B117 emerging in September and saw the effect of its increased infectivity, from a policy perspective Christmas was a shambles and is bound to have lead to increased spread.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Christmas wont have helped but B117 mutation also significant in this I would suggest.

Yes - and as we see various European countries rapidly putting stringent lockdowns into place to curtail this (Kent) variant before it gets too far out of hand. I hope the new SA / Brazilian one here is also equally constrained quickly.

[Mark .Y. 351]

10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ess - Whereas the absolute numbers of deaths is obviously population related but a simple excuse of population density doesn't hold up to explain our local problems. The real truth in that as many have pointed out earlier in these threads are poor political decisions about prompt lockdowns and more recently the emergence of variants.

As you also  effectively note we do indeed have one (but not the) highest raw population density in Europe - comparable to Germany but less than say the Netherlands but our normalized death statistics remain significantly higher. Further, the crude population density numbers are of course truly misleading in themselves as vast tracks of other counties may be barren or effectively empty.

The following link gives a better feeling for what they term 'Lived Density' - 

https://theconversation.com/think-your-country-is-crowded-these-maps-reveal-the-truth-about-population-density-across-europe-90345

 As you can see Scotland is pretty much towards the bottom of the list but Spain (and the Netherlands still) are at the top ignoring odd balls like Monaco. I suppose it helps explain some of the Spanish CV issues.

I dread to think how high up the list Japan would be so 'Lived' population density can not be a dominating factor alone.

Lastly - keep off Brexit. There are a couple on here who see everything first and last through Brexit or more-so anti-EU (& anybody else) eyes and seem beyond rational discussion. 

One thing I would say about the Netherlands is that the people are, generally, pretty sensible and compliant to their Government's wishes. And yes, I say generally because I'm fully aware of the recent anti-curfew riots. I was actually there at the start of their first lockdown and some of the Dutch guys were telling me then that they expected their country to handle it better than the UK because of that tendency.

Their first lockdown was also more relaxed than ours, parks and playgrounds remained open and many parents took their children out every day for exercise - not sure what that tells us but it was certainly different to the UK.  

[Van wink 2,994]

14 hours ago, Van wink said:

Good news from JVT this afternoon about real time effectiveness of both vaccines after one dose in all age groups who had received vaccination but particilarly amongst the elderly who are the largest group to be vaccinated so far. Hospitalisations in over 80 year olds dropped by 80%

A gentle nudge to our European friends with data which will hopefully help to reassure them.

Looks the French are changing their advice regarding the use of AZ for older folk and will now approve it. We will have to see how much take up in France there now is.  Hopefully Germany and a few others will follow.

Edited March 2, 2021 by Van wink

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Mark .Y. said:

One thing I would say about the Netherlands is that the people are, generally, pretty sensible and compliant to their Government's wishes. And yes, I say generally because I'm fully aware of the recent anti-curfew riots. I was actually there at the start of their first lockdown and some of the Dutch guys were telling me then that they expected their country to handle it better than the UK because of that tendency.

Their first lockdown was also more relaxed than ours, parks and playgrounds remained open and many parents took their children out every day for exercise - not sure what that tells us but it was certainly different to the UK.  

I think that's the point in many ways I was trying to make (I have even talked this morning to a supplier in the Groningen area - largely working from home where they can). All countries, even the EU 27, are very different and have used differing strategies with varying degrees of success in suppressing the virus - even countries with similar population densities and nominally similar ways of life i.e. us and Netherlands. Sweden's approach was much discussed in the early days and certainly bears direct comparison with say Denmark's.  

In short I don't think we can wholly or even slightly excuse our poor performance on population densities and  demographics - no more than many other countries could but is dominated by political (or lack) of decisions. It is also clearly absurd to lump all 27 EU countries together for an 'EU' average as if they all followed the same cohesive policy. They didn't, nor do (cf. Sweden v Germany).  

Edited March 2, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

18 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think that's the point in many ways I was trying to make (I have even talked this morning to a supplier in the Groningen area - largely working from home where they can). All countries, even the EU 27, are very different and have used differing strategies with varying degrees of success in suppressing the virus - even countries with similar population densities and nominally similar ways of life i.e. us and Netherlands. Sweden's approach was much discussed in the early days and certainly bears direct comparison with say Denmark's.  

In short I don't think we can wholly or even slightly excuse our poor performance on population densities and  demographics - no more than many other countries could but is dominated by political (or lack) of decisions. It is also clearly absurd to lump all 27 EU countries together for an 'EU' average as if they all followed the same cohesive policy. They didn't, nor do (cf. Sweden v Germany).  

This debate seems to run and run, I wish we wouldnt seek simple definitive answers when the reality must surely be an intertwining complexity of issues, some of which will have a high significance in terms of deaths and others less so, but all will have surely played a part and as we have said many times this aint over yet.

Having said that, I will fall into the same trap 😀, for me the three most significant factors in deaths  1) the slowness and inadequacy of the initial government response, an early failure to acknowledge the significance of the pandemic, particulaly allowing large scale probably super spreader events to continue raising the underlying level of community spread 2) the state of health of the nation reflecting a massive failure in public health policy and social policy over many many years 3) failure to adequatey protect the most vunerable in care settings.

[Indy 3,284]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

This debate seems to run and run, I wish we wouldnt seek simple definitive answers when the reality must surely be an intertwining complexity of issues, some of which will have a high significance in terms of deaths and others less so, but all will have surely played a part and as we have said many times this aint over yet.

Having said that, I will fall into the same trap 😀, for me the three most significant factors in deaths  1) the slowness and inadequacy of the initial government response, an early failure to acknowledge the significance of the pandemic, particulaly allowing large scale probably super spreader events to continue raising the underlying level of community spread 2) the state of health of the nation reflecting a massive failure in public health policy and social policy over many many years 3) failure to adequatey protect the most vunerable in care settings.

Your point 2 is more significant and is generally overlooked as it’s possibly an uncomfortable truth!

We all know someone who’s been involved in the past twelve months battle with Covid on the front line and the majority of younger patients who are hospitalised have been overweight, unfit and this virus has certainly impacted them harder than fit youngsters.

Maybe it’s something which should be each person’s responsibility to ensure we strive to become more healthy as a nation.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

This debate seems to run and run, I wish we wouldnt seek simple definitive answers when the reality must surely be an intertwining complexity of issues, some of which will have a high significance in terms of deaths and others less so, but all will have surely played a part and as we have said many times this aint over yet.

Having said that, I will fall into the same trap 😀, for me the three most significant factors in deaths  1) the slowness and inadequacy of the initial government response, an early failure to acknowledge the significance of the pandemic, particulaly allowing large scale probably super spreader events to continue raising the underlying level of community spread 2) the state of health of the nation reflecting a massive failure in public health policy and social policy over many many years 3) failure to adequatey protect the most vunerable in care settings.

Can't argue with that 🙂.

There are subtle policy differences we can discuss - I heard yesterday that with all the University students returning this month to their campuses and specifically communal halls of residence we can expect a large and sudden spike in cases - which as per last September then spread into the local communities and beyond. I am of the opinion we should of vaccinated all these 18 to 21 year olds before they return - but I guess it's a hard sell to those that think they are more vulnerable in the 60 - 65 group. Truth is they will be much more vulnerable if the prevalence bumps up significantly again and with the newer variants

We shall see.

 

 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

Things look to be improving in the east, Broadland and particular Yarmouth area still a bit of a struggle but overall it’s an encouraging graphic for our area. Still appear to be deep seated pockets of infection in the Midlands and NE which does make you worry about return of schools and some Uni students

Edited March 2, 2021 by Van wink

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Things look to be improving in the east, Broadland and particular Yarmouth area still a bit of a struggle but overall it’s an encouraging graphic for our area. Still appear to be deep seated pockets of infection in the Midlands and NE which does make you worry about return of schools and some Uni students

I seem to recall you have a history in public health. I'm guessing Yarmouth and Lowestoft is largely due to (or correlates) with deprivation and multi-occupancy poor housing.  Oddly the student halls of residence (and indeed student houses and even care homes) are in all ways that matter also 'multi-occupancy'.

Broadland is probably Yarmouth / Lowestoft spill-over ?

Edited March 2, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I seem to recall you have a history in public health. I'm guessing Yarmouth and Lowestoft is largely due to (or correlates) with deprivation and multi-occupancy poor housing.  Oddly the student halls of residence (and indeed student houses and even care homes) are in all ways that matter also 'multi-occupancy'.

Broadland is probably Yarmouth / Lowestoft spill-over ?

Indeed, Yarmouth is something like the 10th most deprived Borough in England. All those things you say, multi occupancy, poor housing, poor health indicators, high prevelence of lower socio economic groups, poor educational attainment etc etc.......contrast with Holt which I read has had one of the lowest incidence of Covid in the UK.

Like most "plagues" it is primarily a disease of the poor.

[Aggy 752]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

This debate seems to run and run, I wish we wouldnt seek simple definitive answers when the reality must surely be an intertwining complexity of issues, some of which will have a high significance in terms of deaths and others less so, but all will have surely played a part and as we have said many times this aint over yet.

Having said that, I will fall into the same trap 😀, for me the three most significant factors in deaths  1) the slowness and inadequacy of the initial government response, an early failure to acknowledge the significance of the pandemic, particulaly allowing large scale probably super spreader events to continue raising the underlying level of community spread 2) the state of health of the nation reflecting a massive failure in public health policy and social policy over many many years 3) failure to adequatey protect the most vunerable in care settings.

4) Years of underfunding of the nhs

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

4) Years of underfunding of the nhs

Yes absolutely Aggy, underfunding of the NHS and underfunding of Pubic Health

[Barbe bleu 816]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

This debate seems to run and run, I wish we wouldnt seek simple definitive answers when the reality must surely be an intertwining complexity of issues, some of which will have a high significance in terms of deaths and others less so, but all will have surely played a part and as we have said many times this aint over yet.

Having said that, I will fall into the same trap 😀, for me the three most significant factors in deaths  1) the slowness and inadequacy of the initial government response, an early failure to acknowledge the significance of the pandemic, particulaly allowing large scale probably super spreader events to continue raising the underlying level of community spread 2) the state of health of the nation reflecting a massive failure in public health policy and social policy over many many years 3) failure to adequatey protect the most vunerable in care settings.

I'm going with, in order of term and chronology:

1) inherently unhealthy towns and cities allowing rapid spread

2) poor personal health at younger ages exacerbating impact of infection (reducing ability of immune system to clear the infection?)

3) lack of adequate mobilisation of resources at the 'contain' phase and unwillingness to take further preventative measures ahead of availability of hard data

4) too many assumptions made about efficacy of infection control in care sector / failure to protect care homes.

5) lack of compliance with advice and instruction 

 

I am not wholly convinced that NHS funding is particularly important in the course of this infection as it is primarily a public health emergency and not a medical one. By the time you talk about funding for medical (tertiary) intervention on massive scale you have already missed the primary and secondary reponses.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Hopefully, following this crisis, the value of the NHS will be realised and debated.

Surely there has been enough instances in the last 12 months to convince most that health is something to treasure. Far above the need to get to Manchester and Birmingham 20 minutes earlier.

[paul moy 235]

On 01/03/2021 at 11:58, Yellow Fever said:

What you have identified correctly KG is that they can't do the maths even if such a comparison was justified (they are after all 27 separate countries all with their own sovereign different Covid responses).

Totally blinkered by hate.

Total rubbish. They were not allowed sovereign differences and had to adhere to the collective system of vaccine ordering by the failing EU.  The UK was allowed that sovereign difference as we had left the mafia clan.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 minutes ago, paul moy said:

Total rubbish. They were not allowed sovereign differences and had to adhere to the collective system of vaccine ordering by the failing EU.  The UK was allowed that sovereign difference as we had left the mafia clan.

That is just another one of your lies. Just checking with Guido or the Mail is not ever going to reveal the truth.

[paul moy 235]

5 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Hopefully, following this crisis, the value of the NHS will be realised and debated.

Surely there has been enough instances in the last 12 months to convince most that health is something to treasure. Far above the need to get to Manchester and Birmingham 20 minutes earlier.

When the chips were down HMG came up with the money and paid what was necessary, even over the odds, in investment and development of vaccines.  The EU did not and have made a calamatous debacle of the whole saga, even though as a collective their health system is supposedly better than ours.  They tried to save money by negotiating en bloc and saved money on paper and cost lives in reality.

The bottom line is that the UK finds the money quickly as an independent sovereign state and will continue to do so when needed, so the NHS is evidently safe in Tory hands.   🤗

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just now, paul moy said:

When the chips were down HMG came up with the money and paid what was necessary, even over the odds, in investment and development of vaccines.  The EU did not and have made a calamatous debacle of the whole saga, even though as a collective their health system is supposedly better than ours.  They tried to save money by negotiating en bloc and saved money on paper and cost lives in reality.

The bottom line is that the UK finds the money quickly as an independent sovereign state and will continue to do so when needed, so the NHS is evidently safe in Tory hands.   🤗

What the hell has that reply got to do with my post?

Your obsession with the EU is disturbing.

[paul moy 235]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

What the hell has that reply got to do with my post?

Your obsession with the EU is disturbing.

The point is that the NHS will always get the money when needed.