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56 minutes ago, Aggy said:

So what in that says, as you suggested I said, “random samples are all but meaningless”? 😕 It literally says why and when they’re useful but also where they have their limitations for certain purposes. 

 

To quote you again - "arbitrary figures based on numbers we are guessing."

I guess you equate basic sampling theory statistics with guessing where in fact they are a well understood method of quantifying data and uncertainty.

Hmm.

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32 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

"T" is going to be mortified.......................

 

"T" has probably looked at the death rates.😉

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21 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

every teacher I know is in work already (in the actual school) doing their job.

Precisely. They've been working pretty well non stop since the start of this disaster. Good on them.It can't be easy.👍

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18 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

It’s not a great lesson to teach kids, is it?

cowardice

what are you carping on about? please elaborate further

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14 minutes ago, Herman said:

"T" has probably looked at the death rates.😉

I think he will probably re-incarnate here at some point.

..... as 'U' or 'V' perhaps? (thinking he may have moved on a bit)

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25 minutes ago, Herman said:

"T" has probably looked at the death rates.😉

Are you "T" ? .......................I'm going to ask Bill, he knows about this sort of thing 😉

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3 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Are you "T" ? .......................I'm going to ask Bill, he knows about this sort of thing 😉

😀

I am not a letter, I am a free man.

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Funny how the Government ignored vaccinating those with learning disabilities, which is a mild way of describing their conditions, until a Radio celebrity speaks to them.

So Marcus Rashford, Elton John and Jo Whiley, their causes not in question, get attention when everyone else can go to hell.

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1 minute ago, It's Character Forming said:

Perhaps he could become "6" ?

A wonderful segway ICF ...I'm very impressed, jumping across the forum seamlessly onto a different thread but maintaing an elegant continuity 😆

Perhaps though "T Cell" would be a good new name for T if only for this thread?

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1 hour ago, The Real Buh said:

It’s not a great lesson to teach kids, is it?

cowardice

Maybe you should go into teaching yourself, as you clearly know it all!!

No. 2 blocked.

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

To quote you again - "arbitrary figures based on numbers we are guessing."

I guess you equate basic sampling theory statistics with guessing where in fact they are a well understood method of quantifying data and uncertainty.

Hmm.

I have genuinely lost track of what you’re on about. 

Can I take it from this that you’re still suggesting the ONS random samples are actually genuine random samples?  Even after seeing the methodology which confirms they don’t sample care homes, hospitals or public institutions? (Not many deaths or cases in any of those right?!)  

Even after the methodology specifically says they “prioritise” certain areas with higher amounts of the things they are sampling for? (I mean if openly stating you prioritise areas with more of the stuff you’re testing for doesn’t scream “not random” I’m not sure what does.)

Or are you now accepting the ONS random sampling isn’t actually random? 

If you do accept that, are you still trying to argue it is entirely accurate regardless?

Or do you accept that sampling which is not random and which omits care homes and hospitals in particular, and which “prioritises” areas with more covid, cannot accurately answer the question “have we definitely got under 1,000 new infections across the whole country today?” 
 

Because if then ONS stats can’t definitively answer that question, the Zoe app can’t definitively answer that question, the official positive results can’t definitively answer that question, then what exactly can?

Seems utterly bizarre to me to be arguing that we should base our strategy for coming out of lock down on statistics which don’t even bother to look at care homes or hospitals. But each to their own!

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1 hour ago, Aggy said:

I have genuinely lost track of what you’re on about. 

Can I take it from this that you’re still suggesting the ONS random samples are actually genuine random samples?  Even after seeing the methodology which confirms they don’t sample care homes, hospitals or public institutions? (Not many deaths or cases in any of those right?!)  

Even after the methodology specifically says they “prioritise” certain areas with higher amounts of the things they are sampling for? (I mean if openly stating you prioritise areas with more of the stuff you’re testing for doesn’t scream “not random” I’m not sure what does.)

Or are you now accepting the ONS random sampling isn’t actually random? 

If you do accept that, are you still trying to argue it is entirely accurate regardless?

Or do you accept that sampling which is not random and which omits care homes and hospitals in particular, and which “prioritises” areas with more covid, cannot accurately answer the question “have we definitely got under 1,000 new infections across the whole country today?” 
 

Because if then ONS stats can’t definitively answer that question, the Zoe app can’t definitively answer that question, the official positive results can’t definitively answer that question, then what exactly can?

Seems utterly bizarre to me to be arguing that we should base our strategy for coming out of lock down on statistics which don’t even bother to look at care homes or hospitals. But each to their own!

Need a bigger spade Aggy? Now you're deciding to argue with the Office of National Statistics as to how to set up a representative sample of the general as opposed to institutionalised population.

Never-mind. Each to his own.

I thought the ONS random samples were fairly clear to most of us as to what they tell us and to which apps like Zoe try to calibrate to.

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43 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Need a bigger spade Aggy? Now you're deciding to argue with the Office of National Statistics as to how to set up a representative sample of the general as opposed to institutionalised population.

Never-mind. Each to his own.

I thought the ONS random samples were fairly clear to most of us as to what they tell us and to which apps like Zoe try to calibrate to.

I’m not arguing with the ONS at all.  I’m merely pointing out your proposed use of their statistics is flawed.

You suggested my earlier post to VW was ‘misguided’ because the ONS stats tell us what the true prevalence is.

I have since merely pointed out the ONS stats don’t sample care homes or hospitals, so can’t possibly tell us what the true prevalence is across the country.

Since then you’ve typed out an awful lot of hot air and guff but haven’t actually said anything of substance.

Unless you fancy actually answering the questions asked in my last post, I don’t think there’s much more to discuss. Your refusal to do so tells me all I need to know I think.

Edited by Aggy

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Surprised this one hasn't made it in here yet - brilliant news, particularly for the developing world and poorer countries. Johnson and Johnson vaccine is safe and effective - 500million units were ordered as part of the Covax project. Cheap and only needs standard refrigeration. Effective against the variants. Sounds like it's not great at stopping moderate symptoms but if it stops hospitalisation and death then it does everything it needs to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56186965

Also for those following my rage earlier in the week - Firstly, thank you for the support - when teachers are getting a kicking every day in the press, it's reassuring to know not everybody is against us!! The rage has subsided now. I am still bloody angry because this is all so stupid, pointless and avoidable but I have accepted it for what it is. SAGE say 50-70% increase in R-rate and tens of thousands of deaths if schools reopen in the big bang rather than staggered opening. Literally state sponsored murder.

I decided if the government won't protect me, then I will have to protect myself so have just spent £100 of my own money on a HEPA air purification system for my classroom. Outrageous that I have to spend sums like that to be safe at work but I was left with little alternative. It's about the best I can do to protect myself in current circumstances. Catches 99.97% of particulate matter including Covid - should entirely cleanse the air in my classroom 5 x per hour. It's essentially the same air filtration systems they run in hospital operating theatres. Between that and having every window open all day every day (regardless of temperature! sorry kids!) I feel like I should be reasonably protected.

I still think it should be a staggered return and mandatory testing of kids before they step in a classroom (current guidance is voluntary testing, if they refuse they can come in regardless which is wrong in my opinion - they have right to refuse but no test, then stay at home and carry on online would be my solution). I do however feel like with the air filtration, the level of risk is now at an acceptable threshold. Shame that our government are too incompetent and feckless to put it in themselves (USA are putting them in at Biden's behest) but what can you do.

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KIO,

Do you wear a face mask? (are they allowed?) I don't mean the screen type.

If you can, then get some FFP3 masks, these give the best protection (for disposable type masks).

I have a few of these that I wear when I go to clients, left for a min of 3 days between uses.

 

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Good news on Pfizer 

 

"The research in Israel - two months into one of the world’s fastest rollouts, providing a rich source of data - showed two doses of the Pfizer shot cut symptomatic COVID-19 cases by 94% across all age groups, and severe illnesses by nearly as much.

The study of about 1.2 million people also showed a single shot was 57% effective in protecting against symptomatic infections after two weeks, according to the data published and peer-reviewed in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday."

 

Message also seems to me however that particularly for those over 80, the single shot of Pfizer gives a low level of immunity so second dose is very important. Should we be reviewing the 12 week strategy for Pfizer in light of these findings, seems to me that we most definitely should. 

 

"The Pfizer vaccine provides strong protection against Covid symptoms and severe disease after two doses but markedly lower protection after a single dose, the first large-scale peer-reviewed study of the real-world effectiveness of the vaccine has found.

Separate survey data published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) found that for those over 80 who had received just a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine blood antibodies were relatively low at 34.7 per cent.

The study by Israel's Clalit Research Institute was conducted in collaboration with researchers from Harvard University and published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine on Tuesday night.

It found two doses of the Pfizer vaccine reduced symptomatic Covid-19 by 94 per cent and severe disease by 92 per cent. A single dose reduced symptomatic Covid-19 by 57 per cent and severe disease by 62 per cent after three weeks"

 

Edited by Van wink
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45 minutes ago, SteveN8458 said:

KIO,

Do you wear a face mask? (are they allowed?) I don't mean the screen type.

If you can, then get some FFP3 masks, these give the best protection (for disposable type masks).

I have a few of these that I wear when I go to clients, left for a min of 3 days between uses.

 

In communal areas of school yes, but not allowed to wear one whilst teaching. I was thinking that I needed to look into the masks in more detail so appreciate the heads up.

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28 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good news on Pfizer 

I'm not deep into the vaccine info as it will come too late for the "at risk" period for me(/family), so I haven't really kept on top of the info but I thought 57% after 1 dose was lower than expected?

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12 minutes ago, kick it off said:

I'm not deep into the vaccine info as it will come too late for the "at risk" period for me(/family), so I haven't really kept on top of the info but I thought 57% after 1 dose was lower than expected?

Thats after two weeks I believe KIO.

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

 Should we be reviewing the 12 week strategy for Pfizer in light of these findings, seems to me that we most definitely 

It found two doses of the Pfizer vaccine reduced symptomatic Covid-19 by 94 per cent and severe disease by 92 per cent. A single dose reduced symptomatic Covid-19 by 57 per cent and severe disease by 62 per cent after three weeks"

 

Should we be reviewing? Yes,  but that is true if all measures, all of the time.

 If we assume that immunity will be fairly constant between weeks 3 and 12 and as 62% is more than half of 92% the policy we have now is the right one in determining roll out within a group.

What we should be asking though is should we go to less  vulnerable groups before second doses go into the most at risk. This is a much more difficult question and raises issues of effect on spread as much as it does questions about severity of disease.

 

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15 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

le groups before second doses go into the most at risk. This is a much more difficult question and raises issues of effect on spread as much as it does questions about severity of disease.

This is the true conundrum - Is it better to stop/limit spread (and hence infection and worse) than try to simply treat the infected.

Alternatively are we using the vaccine roll out currently to limit the symptoms and not the cause ?

I fear with the schools going back and by definition the children unvaccinated, most of the staff, teachers and parents also we can only expect a surge in infections in those groups rapidly spreading elsewhere.

Will we be able to hold it in check until Easter ?

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National

9985 - 323

Over 740k tests today

Local

image.png.3a9a9fec2f5135ca6a8d22e021f28121.png

image.thumb.png.ec9dc86eeed78d886256c0369a211ddc.png

Another big ramp up as second doses slowly increase.

Edited by ricardo

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41 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

9985 - 323

Over 740k tests today

Local

image.png.3a9a9fec2f5135ca6a8d22e021f28121.png

image.thumb.png.ec9dc86eeed78d886256c0369a211ddc.png

Another big ramp up as second doses slowly increase.

That’s a massive number of tests Ricardo, is this reflecting the surge testing?  Massive increase in testing capacity, a good job done by those concerned. ( and a shout out for the tracers who get a lot of bad press in the media and on here! )

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6 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Scandalous behaviour from the EU

F329E499-75DC-4622-8C57-F4DA1A6AE7F8.jpeg

Really irritates me no end to see this seemingly "its all in the mind" attitude of Germany in general towards the AZ vaccine, when here at home i cannot still get a 1st jab even thou im in the over 65 age group, with our situation seeing a huge take up of the vaccine. Just dont understand the mentality of the German populace, when science has stated over and over  how pretty good the AZ vaccine is.

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4 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Really irritates me no end to see this seemingly "its all in the mind" attitude of Germany in general towards the AZ vaccine, when here at home i cannot still get a 1st jab even thou im in the over 65 age group, with our situation seeing a huge take up of the vaccine. Just dont understand the mentality of the German populace, when science has stated over and over  how pretty good the AZ vaccine is.

This might help, it's open to all 60 and over. A couple of friends booked it today.

https://www.nhs.uk/book-a-coronavirus-vaccination/do-you-have-an-nhs-number

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