Jump to content
Fuzzar

Corona Virus main thread

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

New daily positives today down about 1300 compared to last Thursday, every single day this week has seen lower new infections than same days last week, so Zoe app have their stats but facts show that new infections are still on the decrease in the UK.

Ess - be wary of misreading confirmed cases as opposed to random sampling (i.e. ONS). Neither Zoe or the confirmed daily cases actually are correct as to the true position. I always used to see the ONS random sampling indicate about 2 to 3 times the number of actual cases than confirmed - many of course asymptomatic. Zoe however has always indicated early trends so cause for concern at the very least.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Aggy said:

An interesting point - and one which lockdowns won’t help unless you ban all key workers from working. 
 

Another reason I doubt we will have regional measures (as opposed to national) is it then opens up a debate about vaccine distribution. If it’s evident certain areas are more at risk than others, why aren’t proportionately more vaccines being sent there? But equally why would an unvaccinated person in Cornwall be happy that people in Bradford or Leeds have been vaccinated because they get more supply just because those areas are more densely populated/worse rates etc.?

I agree Aggy about it needing to be a national decision. 

Yet,  on your other point, the cynic in me would ask a question about differentiated government policy.....e.g. why has funding, investment, capital, infrastructure been so London-centric for decades and decades, regardless of colour of government. It's simply the politics of Westminster. Would imagine you might agree being Manchester-based? A universal policy is always fairer one could argue and yet if support (be it vaccine, investment or whatever) was selective and targeted carefully, it would make sense to target the worst affected areas. As stated before, it would never happen. Ask any northern politician too (or business) they know how the north has been treated. I don't mean this to be a purely political point because actually no government has ever got to grip with regional inequality. Indeed many policies have aggravated inequality. The point of my initial post was that it has really taken a pandemic to expose it. 

An amazing thing (though not unsurprising) is that if you take a bus ride out from the city centre here after 2 miles you live 3 years longer on average. You go 10 miles and you live 10 years longer on average. And for a life with good health the difference say between Bradford and Ilkley is over 20 years! It is so different in Norfolk / Suffolk. Health inequality is a major health issue in the UK.

Edited by sonyc
initial

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I agree Aggy about it needing to be a national decision. 

Yet,  on your other point, the cynic in me would ask a question about differentiated government policy.....e.g. why has funding, investment, capital, infrastructure been so London-centric for decades and decades, regardless of colour of government. It's simply the politics of Westminster. Would imagine you might agree being Manchester-based? A universal policy is always fairer one could argue and yet if support (be it vaccine, investment or whatever) was selective and targeted carefully, it would make sense to target the worst affected areas. As stated before, it would never happen. Ask any northern politician too (or business) they know how the north has been treated. I don't mean this to be a purely political point because actually no government has ever got to grip with regional inequality. Indeed many policies have aggravated inequality. The point of my initial post was that it has really taken a pandemic to expose it. 

An amazing thing (though not unsurprising) is that if you take a bus ride out from the city centre here after 2 miles you live 3 years longer on average. You go 10 miles and you live 10 years longer on average. And for a life with good health the difference say between Bradford and Ilkley is over 20 years! It is so different in Norfolk / Suffolk. Health inequality is a major health issue in the UK.

Not looked a this sort of stuff for quite a few years but certainly when I was working full time we used to look at deprivation indices across Norfolk as part of the DPH annual report, rural deprivation is a big issue in Norfolk as is the level of deprivation in Yarmouth. Norfolk has a population at both ends of the spectrum of health inequalities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Not looked a this sort of stuff for quite a few years but certainly when I was working full time we used to look at deprivation indices across Norfolk as part of the DPH annual report, rural deprivation is a big issue in Norfolk as is the level of deprivation in Yarmouth. Norfolk has a population at both ends of the spectrum of health inequalities.

Indeed, Yarmouth (especially the centre) and rural areas are comparatively deprived.

I think its the sheer scale though VW. I doubt many areas in Norfolk will appear in the top 20 areas / neighbourhoods in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (and I haven't looked them up recently).  There is a world of difference. Yet, in the final analysis, its not a question of pure comparison  is it (Shakespeare..."comparisons are odious"). It is simply that Covid has had a disproportionate effect in some parts of the UK I was alluding to. And in posting a view, I did wonder whether people of sensitivity might be annoyed at a northern perspective on it (along the lines of "why the hell should we be interested!").  As stated, I was referencing that report (see attached if you're interested).

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/17/why-leicester-blackburn-and-bradford-have-been-hit-hard-by-covid

Edited by sonyc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, yellowrider120 said:

Agreed - in fact this is exactly what Steve Baker and that group of Tory MP's said earlier in the week. For balance, it's good to see at least one poster endorsing that policy instead of the usual 'anti Tory / Johnson/ Government' tirade of abuse from many on here that followed Bakers announcement on Monday. 

We cannot keep the country in perpetual lockdown (and hope that 'someone else' foots the bill) after vaccination of the main vulnerable groups 'just in case something terrifying develops'. Of course the virus has caused many deaths and severe illness of thousands but the unrelenting media hype for a year now is a disgrace as the hundreds who die of all other conditions are totally ignored.   

I didn't quite say that this is the route I would take.   Too many unknowns and too many vulnerable without even a first jab. That said I think we might be approaching a point where we should begin to question whether or not it is still harmful to have some spread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Indeed, Yarmouth (especially the centre) and rural areas are comparatively deprived.

I think its the sheer scale though VW. I doubt many areas in Norfolk will appear in the top 20 areas / neighbourhoods in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (and I haven't looked them up recently).  There is a world of difference. Yet, in the final analysis, its not a question of pure comparison  is it (Shakespeare..."comparisons are odious"). It is simply that Covid has had a disproportionate effect in some parts of the UK I was alluding to. And in posting a view, I did wonder whether people of sensitivity might be annoyed at a northern perspective on it (along the lines of "why the hell should we be interested!").  As stated, I was referencing that report (see attached if you're interested).

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/17/why-leicester-blackburn-and-bradford-have-been-hit-hard-by-covid

Totally agree, I do think though that many of the uninitiated think of Norfolk as  a rural idyll, often deprivation is hidden as I know you are aware. Yarmouth used to be ranked around 10th worst in the UK from memory. Of course the deprivation associated with multiple occupancy, low  paid work, poor health and education are far more significant in terms of control over spread of infection than what we think of as rural deprivation, (but some of the factors are common). Has always been the way, even in the days of the plague.

Edited by Van wink

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Van wink said:

.

 

5 hours ago, sonyc said:

.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/835115/IoD2019_Statistical_Release.pdf

 

Read if you wish but if like me you prefer pictures, map 1 shows the “small local areas” - deprivation dotted everywhere (although more up north and on the east coast), map two shows the most deprived local authorities by percentage of their boroughs in the most deprived decile - a large swathe of very dark blue across everywhere in the north west and east Yorks in particular.

Edited by Aggy
Tried to post pics from the link and failed
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yet again the daily vaccinations for the world move on and the total now stands at 193, 291, 612. 87 Countries have now commenced. As you can see the daily number increases by the day and supplies are beginning to show rapid growth. 

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is underway. More than 193 million doses have been administered across 87 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.47 milliondoses a day.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

“Boris Johnson will pledge to donate a majority of the UK's surplus vaccine supply to poorer countries in a speech to a virtual G7 meeting on Friday.

He will urge rich countries to back a new 100-day target for the development of new vaccines for future emerging diseases.

The UK has ordered over 400m doses of various vaccines, so many will be left over once all adults are vaccinated.

But anti-poverty campaigners say the UK is not doing enough.

Decisions on when and how much of the surplus will be distributed will be made later in the year.

They will depend on the vaccine supply chain and whether booster shots are needed in the autumn.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

Really bad news buddy but remember, for most people it isn't a major disease.  Let us know how you get on.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

Hope all goes well Sonyc.

Get that test booked.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, when a family member tested positive over the Christmas break, we all had tests which I was able to book on line for the following day, the results came back 24-48 hours after we'd had our tests and that way, at least you'll know.  My test result was later that the rest of the family so I was convinced it was a positive test but thankfully it wasn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed @Van wink This follows Macron yesterday stating that there is now so much vaccine that the rich countries should be giving 5% of their current supplies to poorer nations, on a monthly basis which is of course ( US aside who refused ) what was promised in June. I maybe wrong but I think this is because China and Russia are giving away such huge quantities to countries like Turkey that they want to work with, rather than The W.H.O. View that no country should be vaccinated under 50’s ( underlying conditions and health workers aside ) before every under 50 is vaccinated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Indeed @Van wink This follows Macron yesterday stating that there is now so much vaccine that the rich countries should be giving 5% of their current supplies to poorer nations, on a monthly basis which is of course ( US aside who refused ) what was promised in June. I maybe wrong but I think this is because China and Russia are giving away such huge quantities to countries like Turkey that they want to work with, rather than The W.H.O. View that no country should be vaccinated under 50’s ( underlying conditions and health workers aside ) before every under 50 is vaccinated.

While I can see their point @WBB, I'm worried this creates a risk of encouraging the virus to mutate into vaccine resistant strains - I thought the WHO had mentioned a concern about the UK's 12 week gap between doses but surely the same point applies (even more) if you have a population of 50+s who are vaccinated and then have the under-50s unvaccinated for longer than absolutely necessary, you'll inevitably have a lot of virus cases in contact with people who've had the vaccine which surely would risk a mutant version that's resistant to the vaccine spreading ?

 

For me we should support ramping up vaccine production for worldwide distribution, but at the same time, get the UK population vaccinated to herd immunity level as fast as possible, plus slowly easing restrictions so we keep case numbers right down and have strict quarantine controls on all visitors/travellers (relying on testing only for lorry drivers etc).  The aim being we have the full adult population covered during the summer and can roll out booster jabs in September onwards to deal with virus mutations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

Best wishes sonyc

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now here is a bit of worrying news ( can’t report good news all the time ).

It is estimated that 5% of those that get COVID are developing diabetes as the COVID cells attack the pancreas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Now here is a bit of worrying news ( can’t report good news all the time ).

It is estimated that 5% of those that get COVID are developing diabetes as the COVID cells attack the pancreas.

Yes - It's very sad for those concerned the more we discover as to what Covid actually slyly does attacking and damaging, some permanently, many body systems. All the more reasons not to encourage or be complacent about spread in any age group. Russian roulette. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

little bit of a drop on Zoe app today after 3 days of rises... hopefully a good sign that the case rate is still consistently dropping

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bad news Sonyc, fingers crossed it’s a negative on your test, but get well soon!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Well, I think I may have Covid. Have been very careful so don't know how but bad sore throat and strange stomach ache at the moment plus a slight general body ache. Vaccine not in time for me ☹️. Test to be booked. No sleep whatsoever last night.

Fingers crossed for you mate👍

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

little bit of a drop on Zoe app today after 3 days of rises... hopefully a good sign that the case rate is still consistently dropping

Yes back under 14000 today, lets hope to see some progress on the seven day average.

Todays ONS data encouraging

1 in 115 people in England had Covid last week , down from 1 in 80 the week before

Around one in 115 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between 6 and 12 February, according to new estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is down from around one in 80 people for the period 31 January to 6 February.

Edited by Van wink

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yes back under 14000 today, lets hope to see some progress on the seven day average.

Todays ONS data encouraging

1 in 115 people in England had Covid last week , down from 1 in 80 the week before

Around one in 115 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between 6 and 12 February, according to new estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is down from around one in 80 people for the period 31 January to 6 February.

Still nowhere near the end of lockdown I'm afraid. As excellent as the vaccine rollout has been, it just isn't humanly possible to get enough inoculated twice in time to say we can all look forward to Spring with freedom of movement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Still nowhere near the end of lockdown I'm afraid. As excellent as the vaccine rollout has been, it just isn't humanly possible to get enough inoculated twice in time to say we can all look forward to Spring with freedom of movement.

Hope they make the right decisions KG, to be data driven we are told, let’s see. I’m not sure how much regard will be given to data re second vaccine, I suspect for the purposes of opening up one dose will be considered as sufficient. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Hope they make the right decisions KG, to be data driven we are told, let’s see. I’m not sure how much regard will be given to data re second vaccine, I suspect for the purposes of opening up one dose will be considered as sufficient. 

I think you are right about one dose. And hopefully, one dose will be enough to prevent death or serious illness. 

What is worrying is that it wouldn't prevent you contracting the virus and the data emanating about further and different problems (diabetes being the latest serious problem) may well ease the burden on hospitals but not the NHS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Still nowhere near the end of lockdown I'm afraid. As excellent as the vaccine rollout has been, it just isn't humanly possible to get enough inoculated twice in time to say we can all look forward to Spring with freedom of movement.

 

16 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Hope they make the right decisions KG, to be data driven we are told, let’s see. I’m not sure how much regard will be given to data re second vaccine, I suspect for the purposes of opening up one dose will be considered as sufficient. 

I think this is what should encourage us, but I worry very short term political expediency will as before call the tune.

As the vaccine roll out is going so well (and fast), surely it makes sense to hold off opening up for a couple of months to get most if not all vaccinated. I would be looking at the 16+ urgently as to where transmission most commonly occurs once we have largely done groups 1-9. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I would be looking at the 16+ urgently as to where transmission most commonly occurs once we have largely done groups 1-9. 

Really interesting this next phase. 

The young, 18-24,  have the most prior infection and least vulnerability so much as I agree that at some point we need to focus squarely on spread there is an equally valid argument that says it is the 30-50 category that needs jabs most.   Little prior infection, more likely to be in a busy household, and mixing in multiple settings etc.   Intereating times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...