Corona Virus main thread

[Aggy 752]

 

22 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Work as well in what way might be the question that needs to be answered.

Lets say vaccines and existing immunity protect from serious disease and death but not spread.   There is a real argument to say that we open up fully  and completely as soon as groups 1-9 are sorted.  In fact we actively encourage spread of the disease amongst the young and healthy while it is one step ahead

Worst thing we could do is hide away until the virus is two steps ahead of the herd and we eventually open up to a disease that has mutated to completely evade the vaccine or natural immunity.

Agree with much of that, although for the reasons others have said before (there will still be unvaccinated people who will be hospitalised), it can’t be open up completely straight away.
 

Need to come out of it slowly to make sure there aren’t huge numbers of infections in younger people in too short a period of time which means younger people overwhelm the nhs. It’s a balance , but neither full opening up immediately or extremely strict lockdowns longer than necessary are the answer. 
 

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Doesn't work that way BB. The more people that have the virus the more chance, indeed certainty that it will evolve to munch through all those vaccinated freshly ploughed yummy fields!

Sorry, this is incorrect. It is not certain at all. Lots of viruses evolve to become weaker. More chance yes, but not more certainty. 

[Barbe bleu 812]

21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Doesn't work that way BB. The more people that have the virus the more chance, indeed certainty that it will evolve to munch through all those vaccinated freshly ploughed yummy fields! Its a perfect virus breeding R&D scenario you paint.

The real uncomfortable truth is that the more evolutionary pressure we place onto the virus via vaccines yet still allow very high prevalence the more we will encourage or allow Darwinian evolution to occur in the virus. That's why the vaccine alone isn't a 'cure' in isolation without a lockdown to reduce prevalence but almost an evolutionary accelerant.

Reduce the prevalence by any means and with the vaccine we can then keep it at a low level and under control as we then open up. Rely solely on the the vaccine and it will mutate quickly, likely quicker than can adapt as we are seeing already! 

This is not the first coronavirus in the world.   It is deadly because it has evolved through thousands of mutations to be different enough from others that our immune systems have not seen its like before.

The solution will likely not lie in hiding from it or thinking that we can rid it from every corner of the earth. The solution probably lies in keeping up with it so that whatever it evolves into we will have seen something  similar before.  Close enough will keep you alive. 

I'd much much prefer that we keep up with it with vaccines than natural spread but do we know for sure that we can?   Are we prepared to take the social and economic hit whilst we hide until they are ready?

Every major epinldemic in history is the same.  A completely new pathogen enters the area and devastates it. It stops killing not when the society changes but when the immune systems in those societies adapt.

A hypothetical and without evidence but maybe wuhan has faired relatively well not because of government action, misleading figures, healthy body weight or lower proportions of the population in the elderly category, but because the city was exposed to this virus in an earlier form and the arms race between city and virus has always been in balance. 

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Barbe bleu 812]

33 minutes ago, Aggy said:

 

Need to come out of it slowly to make sure there aren’t huge numbers of infections in younger people in too short a period of time which means younger people overwhelm the nhs. It’s a balance , but neither full opening up immediately or extremely strict lockdowns longer than necessary are the answer. 
 

My reponse was predicated on the hypothetical of there being no serious  disease in the less vulnerable categories and was posted to illustrate that spread now might actually be life saving

 But of course, as you say, there will be some serious disease.  At this point then it becomes a balance to acheive the greatest good for the greatest number.

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Yellow Fever 3,741]

25 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

This is not the first coronavirus in the world.   It is deadly because it has evolved through thousands of mutations to be different enough from others that our immune systems have not seen its like before.

The solution will likely not lie in hiding from it or thinking that we can rid it from every corner of the earth. The solution probably lies in keeping up with it so that whatever it evolves into we will have seen something  similar before.  Close enough will keep you alive. 

I'd much much prefer that we keep up with it with vaccines than natural spread but do we know for sure that we can?   Are we prepared to take the social and economic hit whilst we hide until they are ready?

Every major epinldemic in history is the same.  A completely new pathogen enters the area and devastates it. It stops killing not when the society changes but when the immune systems in those societies adapt.

A hypothetical and without evidence but maybe wuhan has faired relatively well not because of government action, misleading figures, healthy body weight or lower proportions of the population in the elderly category, but because the city was exposed to this virus in an earlier form and the arms race between city and virus has always been in balance. 

 

Previous pandemics we haven't generally tried to 'vaccinate' our way of !

There are only 6 / 7 human coronavirus species- 4 of which are 'colds' plus MERs, SARS-COV and now SARS COV 2 ?

The point I'm trying to make is that lockdown (or isolating) which is the normal natural human response only places evolutionary pressure on the virus to become more transmissive (which may well explain the UK and other variants)

However, vaccines without any other measure to reduce prevalence only places evolutionary pressures to evade the vaccines!

[Well b back 3,189]

‘ No jab, No job ‘ moves a step closer if that’s the way business goes. Certainly certain industries you will be given no option.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56113366

[Barbe bleu 812]

6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Previous pandemics we haven't generally tried to 'vaccinate' our way of !

There are only 6 / 7 human coronavirus species- 4 of which are 'colds' plus MERs, SARS-COV and now SARS COV 2 ?

The point I'm trying to make is that lockdown (or isolating) which is the normal natural human response only places evolutionary pressure on the virus to become more transmissive (which may well explain the UK and other variants)

However, vaccines without any other measure to reduce prevalence only places evolutionary pressures to evade the vaccines!

Why would there be no immune evasion pressure during lockdown? The more people are immune to variant 1 the more the pressure will be on the virus to evade it. and as that is a pressure applied by immunity not lockdown measures i dont see why it would not apply equally in lockdown and non lockdown situations.

I think my basic premise (and again its hypothetical) is that this virus is in training whether we like it or not. if it isn't training here then there is a big old world beyond these shores where it will be. Maybe the best thing to do is to train ourselves against it and learn from its evolution not try to deny it.  One step behind in an arms race is ok, but unless we catch up one step becomes two and two becomes fatal.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Work as well in what way might be the question that needs to be answered.

Lets say vaccines and existing immunity protect from serious disease and death but not spread.   There is a real argument to say that we open up fully  and completely as soon as groups 1-9 are sorted.  In fact we actively encourage spread of the disease amongst the young and healthy while it is one step ahead

Worst thing we could do is hide away until the virus is two steps ahead of the herd and we eventually open up to a disease that has mutated to completely evade the vaccine or natural immunity.

The virus, whatever the variant, will go into aestivation in the summer if the pattern of last year is repeated

[Yellow Fever 3,741]

8 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Why would there be no immune evasion pressure during lockdown? The more people are immune to variant 1 the more the pressure will be on the virus to evade it. and as that is a pressure applied by immunity not lockdown measures i dont see why it would not apply equally in lockdown and non lockdown situations.

I think my basic premise (and again its hypothetical) is that this virus is in training whether we like it or not. if it isn't training here then there is a big old world beyond these shores where it will be. Maybe the best thing to do is to train ourselves against it and learn from its evolution not try to deny it.  One step behind in an arms race is ok, but unless we catch up one step becomes two and two becomes fatal.

 

Two quick points - lockdowns quickly reduces prevalence as we see today - the virus doesn't spread and hence there is then less chance for mutations to occur.

Your original argument was to rely on vaccines for say 1/2 the population and 'let it rip' in the other half means that the virus has many many chances at 'challenging' the vaccinated cohort to find mutations to defeat their immunity. It's not a stable situation and it will course break through. In short it makes an awful lot of sense to get the prevalence down quickly to low levels (TT manageable) using all means available to us before we rely on the vaccines to keep to it there 

Now of course that's also a similar argument as to why we have to vaccinate or otherwise reduce the prevalence globally - we can't forever act as an island fortress else as sure as day follows night one nasty one will enter from overseas.

Vaccines work great but with a dangerous virus (and if you doubt CV19 can't be really dangerous look at the mortality rates of its direct cousin the original SARS or terrify yourself with MERS) that is now mutating rapidly we need to get the prevalence down to sensible numbers quickly - where if there are any vaccine busting versions we then have time to react. It's simply a numbers game.

Of course we could let it rip, we may be lucky, we may be unlucky. 

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, Aggy said:

A zero (or close to zero) covid approach. I think we’re yet to see whether that’s possible anywhere outside of huge countries with low density populations (and even then, places like Australia and New Zealand keep having to go back into small lockdowns and have basically completely closed their borders which would be disastrous for us and likely will be for NZ and Aus if it goes on too long).

The other thing, moving to a more political slant, is that a zero covid type response won’t be possible without regular intervening by government banning people in certain areas from leaving the house. We’d be normalising a government using “emergency powers” without approval of parliament to stop certain sectors of society leaving the house or going to work. Concerning IMO. Necessary perhaps when this all started, but not something I think we should be normalising.

Not sure I'm talking about "zero" covid approach, as regards "close to zero" that for me is the massive question, how close?  My view is we need a very low infection rate, we will have to see how great an appetite for risk as a society we have.

 

 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Van wink

[Barbe bleu 812]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Two quick points - lockdowns quickly reduces prevalence as we see today - the virus doesn't spread and hence there is then less chance for mutations to occur.

Your original argument was to rely on vaccines for say 1/2 the population and 'let it rip' in the other half means that the virus has many many chances at 'challenging' the vaccinated cohort to find mutations to defeat their immunity. 

...

Now of course that's also a similar argument as to why we have to vaccinate or otherwise reduce the prevalence globally - we can't forever act as an island fortress else as sure as day follows night one nasty one will enter from overseas.

I have edited  down your response a little but I dont think we are actually that far off.  

We can do what we like here but one day it will come back because we cannot cut ourselves off from the world indefinitely and this thing will evolve regardless of what we in little Britain do to stop it.

If all we have is herd immunity to version 1.0 (wuhan) then version 3.0++ (SA ++) when it slips in will rip us apart, just as it has for 12 months. We need to at least update ourselves to herd immunity 2.0 (kent) .  If we can do that with vaccines great but if not then there is another way....

By the way I'm not actually proposing this. Far too many unknowns at this stage and covid parties likely far too extreme.

but what I am saying is that once we have reduced the immediate crisis we need to be thinking in longer time frames than we currently are and how we protect against what is on or beyond the horizon,  not just what is at the door.

 

[Well b back 3,189]

Scotland's First Minister has said there is "very strong and compelling evidence" that vaccinations are starting to work to reduce the number of people dying.

Nicola Sturgeon told a coronavirus briefing that figures yesterday showed a 62% reduction in the number of Covid deaths in care homes in the last three weeks.

She went on to say there is quite strong confidence now that the early vaccination of care home residents is "having the impact that we desperately hoped to see it have".

The test positivity rate in Scotland is 3.8%, which is below the World Health Organization's 5% target for the pandemic being under control, she says.

The first minister told the briefing a Covid elimination strategy is feasible.

This means suppressing the virus to as low a level as possible and keeping it there, she explained.

An elimination strategy may mean prolonged travel restrictions and other restrictions like face coverings, she said.

The worst thing to do now is let up too quickly and let everything run out of control again and go back to square one, added the first minister.

[Well b back 3,189]

3 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

South Africa will not use the Astra Zeneca vaccine anymore as it was found to be ineffective against their covid variety, which is what experts have said for some time, the virus is mutating fast and is making some vaccines redundant or in need of adjustment. Still can't get any vaccination date for a nearby jab. DVT makes it impossible/painful for me to drive further than 10 miles, unfortunately.

But I'm not in a rush, maybe next week.

Hi Never

This maybe explains your area and looks like you should try on a regular basis.

Hope that helps.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/norfolk-patients-offered-covid-jabs-in-brighton-7563090

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I think we are all maybe jumping the gun at the moment. Lockdown ending, vaccination eternal success and prevention of death are really beyond the knowledge of even the top experts.

I know its easy as a pensioner but we really do have to wait and wait until there is irrefutable evidence.

We surely do not want to waste the future by being too eager about the present.

[Yellow Fever 3,741]

40 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I have edited  down your response a little but I dont think we are actually that far off.  

We can do what we like here but one day it will come back because we cannot cut ourselves off from the world indefinitely and this thing will evolve regardless of what we in little Britain do to stop it.

If all we have is herd immunity to version 1.0 (wuhan) then version 3.0++ (SA ++) when it slips in will rip us apart, just as it has for 12 months. We need to at least update ourselves to herd immunity 2.0 (kent) .  If we can do that with vaccines great but if not then there is another way....

By the way I'm not actually proposing this. Far too many unknowns at this stage and covid parties likely far too extreme.

but what I am saying is that once we have reduced the immediate crisis we need to be thinking in longer time frames than we currently are and how we protect against what is on or beyond the horizon,  not just what is at the door.

 

Yes we're not far apart. I think the confusion on here is between what we do in the next 6 months and the next few years. I note even VW has had to state he's not arguing for zero Covid but just keeping it manageable!

In the next few months the lockdown in conjunction with the vaccine and even better weather (outside) should enable us to get the daily confirmed cases of all varieties down to the order of say 1000/day (we're at 10,000 day at present). Then with approaching 100% effective immunization and TT & I we should be able to hold it there or even reduce it further over the summer whilst we update our vaccines foe the autumn.

What I'm desperate to avoid is opening up too soon and simply defeating or undoing all the hard work done so far - sadly exactly what we did last summer and autumn. The current vaccines are far from perfect but the root of all evil is transmission - stop that (and the vaccines indeed do that) and the pandemic ceases.  Of course we can all be caught out by a new variant but that is much easier to spot once we have only a few hundred cases/day rather than tens of thousands. 

What we mustn't do is set up a perfect experiment to see how fast we can breed vaccine busting mutants by accepting a high prevalence in the unvaccinated and yet a lot of vaccinated/unvaccinated mixing.

[Van wink 2,994]

On 17/02/2021 at 11:09, Tetteys Jig said:

Zoe App with another slight uptick in cases today despite lockdown... genuinely, what do we do if lockdown doesn't work?

Same again today, unless my memory is deceiving me, which is quite within the realms of the possible, just over 14000 today based on data from 31 Jan to 14 Feb.

I fear that infection rates may not quite be on the rapid downward trajectory we are hoping for, need to watch the rolling averages of course but a little cause for concern which may influence political decisions.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,189]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I think we are all maybe jumping the gun at the moment. Lockdown ending, vaccination eternal success and prevention of death are really beyond the knowledge of even the top experts.

I know its easy as a pensioner but we really do have to wait and wait until there is irrefutable evidence.

We surely do not want to waste the future by being too eager about the present.

You are right, but I think things will start to move on next week.

[Well b back 3,189]

BREAKINGNI lockdown extended until 1 April

The Stormont executive has agreed lockdown restrictions in Northern Ireland will be extended until 1 April, BBC News NI understands.

Another review of the measures will take place on 18 March.

[yellowrider120 761]

4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Work as well in what way might be the question that needs to be answered.

Lets say vaccines and existing immunity protect from serious disease and death but not spread.   There is a real argument to say that we open up fully  and completely as soon as groups 1-9 are sorted.  In fact we actively encourage spread of the disease amongst the young and healthy while it is one step ahead

Worst thing we could do is hide away until the virus is two steps ahead of the herd and we eventually open up to a disease that has mutated to completely evade the vaccine or natural immunity.

Agreed - in fact this is exactly what Steve Baker and that group of Tory MP's said earlier in the week. For balance, it's good to see at least one poster endorsing that policy instead of the usual 'anti Tory / Johnson/ Government' tirade of abuse from many on here that followed Bakers announcement on Monday. 

We cannot keep the country in perpetual lockdown (and hope that 'someone else' foots the bill) after vaccination of the main vulnerable groups 'just in case something terrifying develops'. Of course the virus has caused many deaths and severe illness of thousands but the unrelenting media hype for a year now is a disgrace as the hundreds who die of all other conditions are totally ignored.   

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Hi Never

This maybe explains your area and looks like you should try on a regular basis.

Hope that helps.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/norfolk-patients-offered-covid-jabs-in-brighton-7563090

thanks for that well be back, I have not read the Eastern Daily Prattle for years, but this explains that the Tories can't serve the needs in their own county. I will just have to wait, or decline altogether.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I think we are all maybe jumping the gun at the moment. Lockdown ending, vaccination eternal success and prevention of death are really beyond the knowledge of even the top experts.

I know its easy as a pensioner but we really do have to wait and wait until there is irrefutable evidence.

We surely do not want to waste the future by being too eager about the present.

Yes I fully agree, I hope the government is able to resist the clamour to open up coming from within its own ranks and the media.

[Van wink 2,994]

25 minutes ago, Well b back said:

BREAKINGNI lockdown extended until 1 April

The Stormont executive has agreed lockdown restrictions in Northern Ireland will be extended until 1 April, BBC News NI understands.

Another review of the measures will take place on 18 March.

The data may be suggesting that England does the same thing.

[ricardo 7,341]

National

12057 - 458

Local

[sonyc 5,489]

30 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Same again today ,unless my memory is deceiving me, which is quite within the realms of the possible, just over 14000 today based on data from 31 Jan to 14 Feb.

I fear that infection rates may not quite be on the rapid downward trajectory we are hoping for, need to watch the rolling averages of course but a little cause for concern which may influence political decisions.

Have to say, Zoe figures for the whole of the Bradford district remain high (around 3000 daily). One week there is a drop of 800, the next up by 1000. In the last 7 days there has been an increase of c.700. At virtually no stage have I been sure of a real sustained lowering. Though rates were double at their peak in recent months.

I drove into the city yesterday (first time in months) and the roads were very busy indeed. That Guardian report (yesterday) stating Blackburn, Leicester and Bradford had suffered the worst rates in the pandemic (for sustained and consistent high levels of infection) is significant. Bradford, like many other northern towns/cities is a low waged economy. More people are key workers in lower paid jobs. Skills levels are lower than most places (level 2 to 4 for example...directly linked to calibre of job and salary). This is why Covid has been so prevalent.

Other factors include housing density and multiple household occupancy. Yet, it's the economy and type of economy more specifically, that is the most salient factor. 'Levelling up' or any other so-called policy objective won't have any effect unless sustained for decades. It needs structural change. Unfortunately, that won't happen.

Interesting to see indeed if there is a nationwide opening up or regional.

 

[Bill 1,788]

15 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

Agreed - in fact this is exactly what Steve Baker and that group of Tory MP's said earlier in the week. For balance, it's good to see at least one poster endorsing that policy instead of the usual 'anti Tory / Johnson/ Government' tirade of abuse from many on here that followed Bakers announcement on Monday. 

We cannot keep the country in perpetual lockdown (and hope that 'someone else' foots the bill) after vaccination of the main vulnerable groups 'just in case something terrifying develops'. Of course the virus has caused many deaths and severe illness of thousands but the unrelenting media hype for a year now is a disgrace as the hundreds who die of all other conditions are totally ignored.   

given the poster is also you, your endorsement is a bit silly, even for you

 

ps you mixed up your replying a while back so it was easy to spot that you are both the same 😆

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes we're not far apart. I think the confusion on here is between what we do in the next 6 months and the next few years. I note even VW has had to state he's not arguing for zero Covid but just keeping it manageable!

In the next few months the lockdown in conjunction with the vaccine and even better weather (outside) should enable us to get the daily confirmed cases of all varieties down to the order of say 1000/day (we're at 10,000 day at present). Then with approaching 100% effective immunization and TT & I we should be able to hold it there or even reduce it further over the summer whilst we update our vaccines foe the autumn.

What I'm desperate to avoid is opening up too soon and simply defeating or undoing all the hard work done so far - sadly exactly what we did last summer and autumn. The current vaccines are far from perfect but the root of all evil is transmission - stop that (and the vaccines indeed do that) and the pandemic ceases.  Of course we can all be caught out by a new variant but that is much easier to spot once we have only a few hundred cases/day rather than tens of thousands. 

What we mustn't do is set up a perfect experiment to see how fast we can breed vaccine busting mutants by accepting a high prevalence in the unvaccinated and yet a lot of vaccinated/unvaccinated mixing.

I'm 100% with you here @YF. I'd just add we need to get proper control over people coming in - testing for lorry drivers, quarantine hotels with testing for all travellers not just red zone countries.  It's a year into the pandemic and people really shouldn't be travelling now unless they're willing to quarantine properly.

[Aggy 752]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

BREAKINGNI lockdown extended until 1 April

The Stormont executive has agreed lockdown restrictions in Northern Ireland will be extended until 1 April, BBC News NI understands.

Another review of the measures will take place on 18 March.

I think the only surprise is that they’ll review again on 18 March rather than early April.
 

Ties in with kids back in March, probably move back to something like a nationwide tier system early April, and move down the tiers roughly one a month or so unless there’s a reason not to.

[Aggy 752]

32 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

More people are key workers in lower paid jobs. Skills levels are lower than most places (level 2 to 4 for example...directly linked to calibre of job and salary). This is why Covid has been so prevalent.

 

An interesting point - and one which lockdowns won’t help unless you ban all key workers from working. 
 

Another reason I doubt we will have regional measures (as opposed to national) is it then opens up a debate about vaccine distribution. If it’s evident certain areas are more at risk than others, why aren’t proportionately more vaccines being sent there? But equally why would an unvaccinated person in Cornwall be happy that people in Bradford or Leeds have been vaccinated because they get more supply just because those areas are more densely populated/worse rates etc.?

[Essjayess 307]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Same again today, unless my memory is deceiving me, which is quite within the realms of the possible, just over 14000 today based on data from 31 Jan to 14 Feb.

I fear that infection rates may not quite be on the rapid downward trajectory we are hoping for, need to watch the rolling averages of course but a little cause for concern which may influence political decisions.

New daily positives today down about 1300 compared to last Thursday, every single day this week has seen lower new infections than same days last week, so Zoe app have their stats but facts show that new infections are still on the decrease in the UK.

[Yellow Fever 3,741]

30 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I'm 100% with you here @YF. I'd just add we need to get proper control over people coming in - testing for lorry drivers, quarantine hotels with testing for all travellers not just red zone countries.  It's a year into the pandemic and people really shouldn't be travelling now unless they're willing to quarantine properly.

I agree - If it's worth doing do it properly - mandating quarantine for all incoming normal travelers with heavily tested exceptions for such as lorry drivers, crew etc. 

I think the 'red' list is very deceiving and easily circumnavigated literally by anybody intent on getting in from such areas. A few stop overs and unless MI5/6 haven't got better things to do who'd know ? 

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

New daily positives today down about 1300 compared to last Thursday, every single day this week has seen lower new infections than same days last week, so Zoe app have their stats but facts show that new infections are still on the decrease in the UK.

Not doubting that Essjayess, just raising the point that the rate at which things are improving may not be as fast as some seem to think.