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7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

BREAKINGA further 1.7m added to shielding list in England

An extra 1.7 million people will be asked to shield in England, the government has announced.

There are already 2.3 million on the shielding list and for some it will also mean they are now prioritised for vaccination.

The move comes after a new model was developed that takes into extra factors rather than just someone's health condition as the original list does.

This calculation includes things like ethnicity, deprivation and weight to work out a person's risk of becoming seriously ill if they were to catch Covid. 

That sounds pretty sensible and essentially good news but like so much of the Government's response to this crisis, why on earth has it taken so long?

Granted those risk factors highlighted weren't known about, or at least their full significance not understood, at the start of the crisis but they emerged pretty quickly last year and there has been a steady stream of info re-inforcing them ever since so this seems rather like another case of closing the stable door............

 

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15 minutes ago, Well b back said:

BREAKINGA further 1.7m added to shielding list in England

An extra 1.7 million people will be asked to shield in England, the government has announced.

There are already 2.3 million on the shielding list and for some it will also mean they are now prioritised for vaccination.

The move comes after a new model was developed that takes into extra factors rather than just someone's health condition as the original list does.

This calculation includes things like ethnicity, deprivation and weight to work out a person's risk of becoming seriously ill if they were to catch Covid. 

I hope my GP knows how much weight i have put on over lockdown...

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I've had an email today asking me as one if the clinically extremely vulnerable, to continue shielding until 31st March.

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44 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

New variant detected. 38 cases identified.

I saw that to, similar characteristics to the South African one apparently. Usual lab tests and things now I think it said.

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57 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

New variant detected. 38 cases identified.

It has a number KG it’s B.1.525.

Scientists have identified another new variant of coronavirus in the UK with some potentially troubling mutations.

B.1.525 appears similar to the South African variant which prompted door-to-door tests in areas where it has been found.

Researchers from Edinburgh University have found 33 cases so far in samples dating back to December.

It has been seen in other countries too, including Denmark, Nigeria and the US.

UK experts are studying it to understand what risk it poses.

It is too soon to say if it should be added to the UK's list of "variants of concern" and whether mass testing for it should happen.

 

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National

10625 - 799

Local

Everything dropping around 40% over the last week

image.png.29acbf2fea4f18dbb17a797347c870e0.png

image.thumb.png.83403ecbf9e6cb3edde0d2069744d345.png

Same pattern two lowish days followed by 5 higher reporting days.

Are we seeing first signs of second dose stepping up?

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

I've had an email today asking me as one if the clinically extremely vulnerable, to continue shielding until 31st March.

🤨 sounds like lockdowns being extended then... they want all 9 groups done before any proper relaxations... dont they

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1 minute ago, Tetteys Jig said:

🤨 sounds like lockdowns being extended then... they want all 9 groups done before any proper relaxations... dont they

Possibly, maybe they want the extremely vulnerable to have their second dose before lifting.

I'm in group 3.

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6 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I think you’ve missed the point on every sentence. 

I didn’t equate flu and covid. In fact I did the exact opposite. If prevalence is the “target” then you treat everything the same. 1,000 cases of covid, 1,000 cases of flu, 1,000 chesty coughs. The prevalence all the same. If prevalence is the “target” then you react the same when the prevalence is the same.

The reason we don’t/won’t/shouldn’t react the same is because covid kills and hospitalises more. So it’s the outcome (hospitalisations and deaths) that needs to be the target, not the mere fact we have 1,000 cases of any particular thing. 

[As an aside - Hunt actually referred to new daily instances, not prevalence. 1000 new cases a day.]

Kids - again, point missed. You will no doubt have seen the hypothetical scenario I mentioned, where I referred to adults being vaccinated. The point was that if you hypothetically have every adult vaccinated, but 1,001 low risk kids were infected and were pretty much fine, then you wouldn’t have restrictions. Again, the point was that prevalence isn’t the thing to use as the target.

I have said that we need to ease restrictions slowly to ensure prevalence doesn’t get too high - it’s one of many things that needs to be monitored and one of many things that will help to keep hospitalisations down. But prevalence as a goal is pointless. The goal is avoiding the nhs being overwhelmed. Monitoring/managing prevalence is one thing that can help that - especially until more people are vaccinated. But the more people are vaccinated, the less prevalence matters - the goal is to stop the nhs being overwhelmed, not to have zero covid. 

It sounds as though the five targets highlighted at the start of lockdown last year won’t change. Prevalence will be monitored as one of many things to achieve the five targets, but prevalence itself won’t be a target (see guardian post referred to in my previous post). So keeping an eye on prevalence will help us keep hospitalisations low until we have enough vaccines to pick up the slack , but the target is to keep hospitalisations and deaths down, not to have fewer than an arbitrary number of infections.

As to locking people up, I think you may have misread a few of those posts too. All I have suggested is that we should have various measures, one of which could be the most vulnerable shielding. That the most vulnerable according to Ricardo have been asked to shield for longer rather suggests other people think shielding is helpful too. Not the only answer, but helps. And the example I’ve used previously is that having high risk 80 year olds mingling at church on a Sunday whilst 19 year olds can’t go to work is scandalous.

As to long covid and young people not being vaccinated - are we talking about zero covid or stopping the nhs from being overwhelmed? 

 

Edited by Aggy

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15 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

🤨 sounds like lockdowns being extended then... they want all 9 groups done before any proper relaxations... dont they

Yes I think so, wanting numbers down under 1000 a day which is going to be mid April I suspect. Maybe some additional concern about variants coming into the considerations as well. 

Edited by Van wink

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5 million worldwide yesterday, with the supplies going up enormously. Daily rate now up to 6.19 million

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is underway. More than 181 million doses have been administered across 79 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.19 milliondoses a day.

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Did someone post a link to a charity on here to contribute to vaccines world wide. Having had my jab, I thought it would be a good thing to participate. 

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To add to your encouraging post @Well b back Burn-Murdoch who gathers data on the pandemic has tweeted this update (useful clickable link / thread with comments too....including a table in follow up replies indicating projected supply numbers ahead)

 

 

Edited by sonyc
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We did a big bit about this on the COS thread but human challenge trials have been given the go ahead, 300 young adults to take part.

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

To add to your encouraging post @Well b back Murdoch who gathers data on the pandemic has tweeted this update (useful clickable link / thread with comments too)

 

 

Thanks SONYC exactly where the suppliers said we would be, no idea where those crazy figures came from 6 weeks ago. 

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1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Thanks SONYC exactly where the suppliers said we would be, no idea where those crazy figures came from 6 weeks ago. 

Useful table in there (about 20 replies into the comment) of actual supply numbers projected too. This fella simply tweets on the numbers with barely any political comment. He is a trustworthy source.

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37 minutes ago, dj11 said:

Did someone post a link to a charity on here to contribute to vaccines world wide. Having had my jab, I thought it would be a good thing to participate. 

https://www.arminarm.net/

Posted it yesterday, the scheme only just launched from the UEA, hopefully it will gain some traction.

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1 hour ago, Well b back said:

We did a big bit about this on the COS thread but human challenge trials have been given the go ahead, 300 young adults to take part.

Hats off to the 300. (Are they from Sparta?). 

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41 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Zoe App with another slight uptick in cases today despite lockdown... genuinely, what do we do if lockdown doesn't work?

I guess this one has to. So if it means another few weeks then so be it. Granted its easy for me to say, our pensions are unaffected.

But we really can't have any doubt this time that we have it under control enough to resume a different life than we are used to, but one nevertheless that is better than the current one.

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Useful table in there (about 20 replies into the comment) of actual supply numbers projected too. This fella simply tweets on the numbers with barely any political comment. He is a trustworthy source.

Thanks @sonyc,  I've looked, but can't see anything on actual projected numbers.  There's mention that both the Welsh and Scottish FMs have mentioned some temporary reduction in supply the next few weeks though and I'm not sure if that's across the whole of the UK although I assume it is ?

 

it seems to me the end of March projection assumes current numbers are maintained and that was about where I'd got to on a back of a fag packet recently.  My guess is the end April target is both managing expectations generally and also allowing for the risk of supply chain disruption between then.  Being in the 55+ age category it's great to feel that it's now not too far away until I'll be offered my first dose.

 

Great to see that realistically all 18+ can be offered the vaccine over the summer.

 

Also great to be reminded that Moderna and Novavax are due to come on stream in the coming months.

 

I definitely think we should continue to ramp this up in the UK as has happened with testing.  We can make them available to poorer countries once we're fully vaccinated (as well as supporting Covax now which is essential).  I disagree that we should start sending them abroad until the UK is fully done because having a partly vaccinated population risks encouraging vaccine-resistant mutations, we should get to full herd-immunity in the UK as quickly as possible.

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17 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I guess this one has to. So if it means another few weeks then so be it. Granted its easy for me to say, our pensions are unaffected.

But we really can't have any doubt this time that we have it under control enough to resume a different life than we are used to, but one nevertheless that is better than the current one.

Agree with this 100%.  We need to be cautious and make sure relaxation is done gradually and at a sustainable pace.

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20 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I guess this one has to. So if it means another few weeks then so be it. Granted its easy for me to say, our pensions are unaffected.

But we really can't have any doubt this time that we have it under control enough to resume a different life than we are used to, but one nevertheless that is better than the current one.

sounds like the same places that struggled to get numbers really low are the places struggling again... I wonder what the government are planning to do about that? Its all well and good keeping us all locked down but it really doesn't get to the bottom of the issue of what is driving the spread at its roots.

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4 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

sounds like the same places that struggled to get numbers really low are the places struggling again... I wonder what the government are planning to do about that? Its all well and good keeping us all locked down but it really doesn't get to the bottom of the issue of what is driving the spread at its roots.

I can only surmise that its lifestyle.

High density living. Social interaction. Larger families. Personal and religious beliefs. Place of work. Economic freedom.

 

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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

I can only surmise that its lifestyle.

High density living. Social interaction. Larger families. Personal and religious beliefs. Place of work. Economic freedom.

 

so again, what are the government going to do to intervene or do we just accept it? We have no chance of getting down to 1000 cases a day with schools back and with no targeted action in these areas until most of the population is vaccinated at least. Difference compared to last year is the more infectious strain has now taken over. It was basically all London and SE in December and Jan but now its the dominant strain everywhere meaning if lockdown was only just working before it won't now be enough for some areas/demographics.

Sure Boris has said that we all need to come out of this together with no move back to tiers etc. but I think it's inevitable unless he wants to keep areas of vanishingly small incidence under lockdown in a few months.

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8 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

so again, what are the government going to do to intervene or do we just accept it? We have no chance of getting down to 1000 cases a day with schools back and with no targeted action in these areas until most of the population is vaccinated at least. Difference compared to last year is the more infectious strain has now taken over. It was basically all London and SE in December and Jan but now its the dominant strain everywhere meaning if lockdown was only just working before it won't now be enough for some areas/demographics.

Sure Boris has said that we all need to come out of this together with no move back to tiers etc. but I think it's inevitable unless he wants to keep areas of vanishingly small incidence under lockdown in a few months.

I believe this crisis has identified areas which have been debated for a long time but nothing has changed. Now I think there has to be action(s) to attempt to make things better.

We have made a valid attempt to identify where we can improve the environment. And there is a great deal of welfare in the UK. Housing has improved.

But the down side is personal health, wealth disparity and disdain for others.

Economies can be amended and improved but attitudes will be harder to alter.

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