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2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I believe Moderna is also doing well ‘ in the field ‘ against the Brazil and South African variant as well as the U.K. variant. With Oxford seeming ( hopefully ) to protect against ‘ serious COVID ‘ and a booster due before Autumn, we are in a good place, combined with the 2 treatments highlighted in the last couple of days.

I wonder if messenger RNA might have some subtle advantages in the way it kicks off the immune system almost as a computer hack as opposed to the more traditional approach of showing it an actual 'example' of a dead or neutered actual virus. Maybe the mRNA coding can be interpreted with a bit more freedom by the immune system.

Something for the scientists.

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1 hour ago, paul moy said:

These are not predictions but stone cold hard facts, although probably underestimated as they do not count some deaths in the same way that we do.

Somewhere in the middle of this thread 'excess deaths' was the preferred metric. To be fair to you these do suggest that the UK is doing a good job in the grim accountancy and others may be under recording significantly. 

But Belgium and France are doing likewise and the US might be missing a fair amount / has suffered greatly from the indirect effects of this so your comparison doesn't really work 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I wonder if messenger RNA might have some subtle advantages in the way it kicks off the immune system almost as a computer hack as opposed to the more traditional approach of showing it an actual 'example' of a dead or neutered actual virus. Maybe the mRNA coding can be interpreted with a bit more freedom by the immune system.

Something for the scientists.

Interesting question. It was certianly postulated that the virus vector in AZ etc attracted an immune response that might inhibit it so maybe your hypothesis has legs, even if its not going to resolved by us!

Maybe Pfizer just selected binding site fortuitously with reference to SA variant. Who knows

I'll read the guardian article again but the Pfizer study could be good news for AZ as appears to show that the immune system can compensate for the b cell blindspot that appears common to both. 

 

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Just had a text to book my vaccination.

Age 62 with underlying medical condition.

Norwich

 

They seem to be cracking on here.

Edited by SteveN8458
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11 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Somewhere in the middle of this thread 'excess deaths' was the preferred metric. To be fair to you these do suggest that the UK is doing a good job in the grim accountancy and others may be under recording significantly. 

But Belgium and France are doing likewise and the US might be missing a fair amount / has suffered greatly from the indirect effects of this so your comparison doesn't really work 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

A fair point and likewise as I pointed out when we passed the sad 100,000 deaths figure, people on here were comparing the UK with other countries in order to denigrate our efforts, and I pointed out at the time that it was not a fair comparison for reasons that you state, amongst others.  Thanks for agreeing with me and applying commonsense, logic and fairness which many on this board lack the will to do for some peculiar reason. 😂

Edited by paul moy

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39 minutes ago, paul moy said:

Thanks for agreeing with me and applying commonsense, logic and fairness which many on this board lack the will to do for some peculiar reason. 😂

Excellent! So with your sudden Damascene conversion to "logic and fairness" (pause for laughter) I happily await your publication of the figures for the rest of the world such as those countries on the Asian continent and Australasia.

Edited by horsefly

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Some more excellent news today in the world effort. The Serum Institute are now up to 12,000 doses being made a minute, lots of which goes to Covax, and with Germany’s second Pfizer plant about to become operational in Marburg and Sanofi able to manufacture up to 250 million doses of Pfizer they are now able to produce up to 2 billion doses.

Hopefully shortages will soon be gone now and plants that need to can prepare for Autumn boosters. What with treatments in the last few days being announced, it really feels like we are getting places that little bit quicker.

Edited by Well b back
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ONS data today shows good progress, decrease in infections in week to 6 Feb, a bit patchy over the UK but improving figures. 1 in 80 infected in England.

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2 hours ago, SteveN8458 said:

Just had a text to book my vaccination.

Age 62 with underlying medical condition.

Norwich

 

They seem to be cracking on here.

Good news but remember its three weeks before it kicks in👍

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On 05/02/2021 at 23:51, Aggy said:

Also, I’m not sure who is alarmed at the rate covid is mutating, as most places seem to suggest it mutates slower than most viruses. Article from 3 days ago....

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/how-does-virus-mutate-why-do-mutations-happen-south-african-uk-and-brazil-covid-variants-continue-spread-3076550

All viruses naturally mutate as they spread through a population, and this coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 has undergone one or two changes a month since the start of the pandemic.

 
 
 

In fact, it has changed at a slow pace compared to other viruses, like seasonal flu, which mutates at a fast rate so that a new vaccine has to be introduced every year.

It is an RNA virus, like the flu and measles, and these types of viruses are more prone to mutations than DNA viruses, such as herpes and smallpox.

Mutations usually happen by chance, and don’t have much impact on the properties of a virus - the World Health Organisation (WHO) said these changes are “natural and expected”.

Often, they can lead to a weaker version of the virus, or the changes could be so small that there’s no difference in its behaviour.”

There are two aspects to mutation Aggy, there is the rate at which the virus mutates as you say, but also the opportunity for mutation which occurs as it replicates and moved between hosts. Thats the point, when you have a high level of infection there is more replication and hence more chance of mutation. I like you want to see us get back to a more normal life as soon as it is safe to do so, but doing that too soon will only potentially put us back to square one. To take the view that once the vunerable are vaccinated you can let it rip through the remaining population might sound like an attractive option to some, but in doing that you risk a mutation that could undermine the whole of the vaccination program. Better to wait till infection levels are low imo.

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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Good news but remember its three weeks before it kicks in👍

We'll be off to Carrow Road with our season tickets and vaccination cards before long,  should lower the average age of the crowd.😉

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BBC breakfast this morning reporting Wales will get to the vaccination target for the top 4 groups over the weekend, which is good news.  I think the target date is Monday so it looks like the UK generally is in good shape to hit the target.


The Welsh FM did say he expected a reduction in vaccine supplies over the next few weeks while they increase production capacity.  It was a bit hazy and they didn't follow it up but he clearly implied daily dose numbers will drop temporarily before increasing and on track to complete the rest of the 50+s by Spring.  Has anyone seen anything about this and is it across the UK rather than just Wales ?

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22 minutes ago, Van wink said:

ONS data today shows good progress, decrease in infections in week to 6 Feb, a bit patchy over the UK but improving figures. 1 in 80 infected in England.

Good.

I agree with Ferguson here. I would add that I would open ONLY the schools as the most pressing first and see what happens to the rates. If they still keep going down after a month then the next step. Not before.

 

Professor Neil Ferguson told Politico’s Westminster Insider podcast that despite favouring a cautious, gradual one-step-at-a-time easing of lockdown restrictions, he still believes that the UK will “hopefully” be reopening society to a considerable degree by May.

He said:

I still think despite that caution, though, certainly by May, we hopefully will be in a place much more like we were like back last October, for instance, rather than the ever-intensified social distancing we’ve seen since October onwards.

Ferguson added that this would however “critically depend” on the “real world effectiveness” of the vaccine, which was not yet clear.

He said:

The data from Israel is informative, and there’s some parallel data coming through from the UK that the Pfizer vaccine, certainly after two doses, gives a very high level of protection - 90, 95 percent-plus, as shown in the trials.

Of course, we’ll have to see how it performs against the UK new variant - not the one in Bristol, but the one which has been circulating for the last six or eight weeks in particular.

But it’s still likely to be highly, highly effective. There’s a bigger question mark obviously around - just because we haven’t seen the data yet - around the real world effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Seeing the data come through will be critical for making an assessment of the extent to which those rules on people seeing each other can be relaxed.

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9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

There are two aspects to mutation Aggy, there is the rate at which the virus mutates as you say, but also the opportunity for mutation which occurs as it replicates and moved between hosts. Thats the point, when you have a high level of infection there is more replication and hence more chance of mutation. I like you want to see us get back to a more normal life as soon as it is safe to do so, but doing that too soon will only potentially put us back to square one. To take the view that once the vunerable are vaccinated you can let it rip through the remaining population might sound like an attractive option to some, but in doing that you risk a mutation that could undermine the whole of the vaccination program. Better to wait till infection levels are low imo.

Yes - and even the best vaccine is only 90% or so effective, some perhaps 60%. Anybody feeling lucky (or feeling unwell and unlucky) ?

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8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

There are two aspects to mutation Aggy, there is the rate at which the virus mutates as you say, but also the opportunity for mutation which occurs as it replicates and moved between hosts. Thats the point, when you have a high level of infection there is more replication and hence more chance of mutation. I like you want to see us get back to a more normal life as soon as it is safe to do so, but doing that too soon will only potentially put us back to square one. To take the view that once the vunerable are vaccinated you can let it rip through the remaining population might sound like an attractive option to some, but in doing that you risk a mutation that could undermine the whole of the vaccination program. Better to wait till infection levels are low imo.

This is spot on VW and why we need to press on to get 100% of the population, or as near as practical, vaccinated.  Once we get sufficient immunity across the population we finally achieve Nirvana of herd immunity and virus numbers will finally drop away.  As long as the virus is replicating at high numbers, it will also be mutating into new variants giving a risk that they are more transmissible and also more resistant to the virus.

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6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We'll be off to Carrow Road with our season tickets and vaccination cards before long,  should lower the average age of the crowd.😉

I agree, ready for next season.   My estimate is  that us oldies can start travelling in June with our vaccine passports.   Other countries will lag us by a long way due to tardy vaccinations but the UK will be held in high esteem by the rest of the world and will want us to start spending again in their countries.

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49 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Good news but remember its three weeks before it kicks in👍

Is there a signal? A sudden jolt of the inner organs? Is the effect age dependent?

 

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26 minutes ago, paul moy said:

I agree, ready for next season.   My estimate is  that us oldies can start travelling in June with our vaccine passports.   Other countries will lag us by a long way due to tardy vaccinations but the UK will be held in high esteem by the rest of the world and will want us to start spending again in their countries.

Will be be able to enter Barcelona riding mules with palm fronds laid before us?

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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

Will be be able to enter Barcelona riding mules with palm fronds laid before us?

Spain will not be on my list but certainly Asia....... I'm hoping to visit the Philippines for the first time.

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3 minutes ago, paul moy said:

Spain will not be on my list but certainly Asia....... I'm hoping to visit the Philippines for the first time.

China? Wuhan?

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49 minutes ago, Van wink said:

There are two aspects to mutation Aggy, there is the rate at which the virus mutates as you say, but also the opportunity for mutation which occurs as it replicates and moved between hosts. Thats the point, when you have a high level of infection there is more replication and hence more chance of mutation. I like you want to see us get back to a more normal life as soon as it is safe to do so, but doing that too soon will only potentially put us back to square one. To take the view that once the vunerable are vaccinated you can let it rip through the remaining population might sound like an attractive option to some, but in doing that you risk a mutation that could undermine the whole of the vaccination program. Better to wait till infection levels are low imo.

Yes we said this a week ago. More infections mean more opportunities to mutate. But more mutation could also means it ends up mutating down to something much less deadly - as happens with lots of flu.
 

So the point is it’s a balancing act and the economy and other health issues will start to take precedence when we get to a point where covid isn’t risking the overwhelming of hospitals. The simple fact that it might mutate (or not) and might mutate nastily (or not) isn’t a good enough reason to ban people from going to work, as much as some retired people might want it to be.

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44 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

This is spot on VW and why we need to press on to get 100% of the population, or as near as practical, vaccinated.  Once we get sufficient immunity across the population we finally achieve Nirvana of herd immunity and virus numbers will finally drop away.  As long as the virus is replicating at high numbers, it will also be mutating into new variants giving a risk that they are more transmissible and also more resistant to the virus.

We won’t get 100 percent vaccinated realistically. If you’re 30 and healthy when are you going to get vaccinated? By the time we’ve got the main groups and then the less main groups vaccinated, we’ll be starting to re-do those groups in readiness for autumn and winter flu season again.

The mutation point is massively over egged IMO. Every virus could mutate. Flu does it every year and kills tens of thousands every year despite having vaccines. As I’ve said before, think about all the flu mutations that would have been avoided had we locked down every year in the 60s, 70s, 80s etc and how many hundreds of thousands (millions?) of people might not have died from flu had we done that.

Edited by Aggy
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1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

China? Wuhan?

Hasn't the government already ruled out Vaccine passports - at least until everybody has been offered a vaccine (else there would be rightful outrage from our younger less vulnerable put upon cohorts).

I really don't see much if any foreign travel this year. - and then only if other countries would accept us.

By the way if you go to Wuhan - do take in the Yellow Crane Tower  - a little touristy in a Chinese manner.

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6 minutes ago, Aggy said:

We won’t get 100 percent vaccinated realistically. If you’re 30 and healthy when are you going to get vaccinated? By the time we’ve got the main groups and then the less main groups vaccinated, we’ll be starting to re-do those groups in readiness for autumn and winter flu season again.

The mutation point is massively over egged IMO. Every virus could mutate. Flu does it every year and kills tens of thousands every year despite having vaccines. As I’ve said before, think about all the flu mutations that would have been avoided had we locked down every year in the 60s, 70s, 80s etc and how many hundreds of thousands (millions?) of people might not have died from flu had we done that.

Well surely the Government now has the opportunity to offer the "normal" flu jab free to all citizens. It is a great moment in time for Governments to evaluate their spending and realise that an invisible enemy has done so much damage to humanity and the economy and that it is now time to abandon some projects and try to ensure that should this happen again, we will be as ready as possible.

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6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I really don't see much if any foreign travel this year. - and then only if other countries would accept us.

 

Visit Wales, they deserve some recognition for the excellent job they've done.

Initially criticised for not being the quickest off the mark they've proven that you don't have to be a persistent front runner to beat the others.

 

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Hasn't the government already ruled out Vaccine passports - at least until everybody has been offered a vaccine (else there would be rightful outrage from our younger less vulnerable put upon cohorts).

I really don't see much if any foreign travel this year. - and then only if other countries would accept us.

By the way if you go to Wuhan - do take in the Yellow Crane Tower  - a little touristy in a Chinese manner.

They were discussing the idea yesterday according to reports.  It is the commonsense way to go if we are ever to open up.

Many of the 'young' have acted irresponsibly and continue to do so, so would not be welcome in many countries anyway with their attitude.

 

Edited by paul moy

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