Corona Virus main thread

[Aggy 752]

7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

How about this for a theory, and I have no idea if this is correct, but it seems to spread more inside. We automatically take to our houses in the winter, do really hot countries take to their houses in the extremes of heat ?.

There is no science to that just a thought that came into my head.

Possibly. I don’t doubt behaviour is a part of it, and possibly the main part. But the same is true of flu - we don’t know for definite why flu is worse in the winter. It could be behavioural it could be because of temperatures, or something else - but we still say flu is “seasonal”. 

But despite being seasonal you can still get flu at any time. It doesn’t vanish completely as soon as you get to May and then nobody gets it until November.

Lots of countries where it is warm all year round don’t really have a “flu season”, but people still get flu.

So to say it isn’t seasonal and ignore clear evidence of seasonality in the uk because it’s warm in Brazil is a bit disingenuous, especially as it’s a tropical equatorial country where even in “high winter” it’s over 20 degrees c - which isn’t exactly cold. Noticeably, countries further north and further south have more pronounced flu seasons as a rule, whilst equatorial or tropical countries where the weather is about the same all year have flu all year round.

[Well b back 3,190]

Unfortunately plasma as a treatment for COVID is not showing good results.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55681051

[Van wink 2,994]

"Unite, a recognised trade union for staff in banks, has called for urgent action to make face coverings mandatory in all branches after becoming “increasingly alarmed” at the number of customers refusing to wear them."

This from a newspaper article today, no irony, a straight piece, I think I can still remember that other world we used to live in.

[Herman 9,716]

34 minutes ago, Van wink said:

"Unite, a recognised trade union for staff in banks, has called for urgent action to make face coverings mandatory in all branches after becoming “increasingly alarmed” at the number of customers refusing to wear them."

This from a newspaper article today, no irony, a straight piece, I think I can still remember that other world we used to live in.

The problem is that there are still idiots, with a large base of followers, Hartley-Brewer, Fox, Young etc etc spouting utter bollox on social media. Instead of people looking around them they'd rather put their faith in these no-nothing trolls. They are a danger to us all and when this is over they should be hung out to dry.

[Well b back 3,190]

39 minutes ago, Herman said:

The problem is that there are still idiots, with a large base of followers, Hartley-Brewer, Fox, Young etc etc spouting utter bollox on social media. Instead of people looking around them they'd rather put their faith in these no-nothing trolls. They are a danger to us all and when this is over they should be hung out to dry.

It has to be said a few of these are beginning to get called out now, this is the latest from a group of four 2 of which were regularly quoted on here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55676037

[Barbe bleu 814]

11 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It has to be said a few of these are beginning to get called out now, this is the latest from a group of four 2 of which were regularly quoted on here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55676037

If they looked at the pink un message board 95% of posts from across the whole community would be on the banned list!

Edited January 16, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[Herman 9,716]

Well that's not true for starters.

[Well b back 3,190]

The latest one doing the rounds on Facebook, Twitter ect is

’ If you do not know your NHS number you will be turned away ‘ and worse still ‘ If you do not know your NHS number you are not allowed / entitled to have the jab ‘

This is completely untrue. It is guessed it comes from the pre clinical form that I mentioned that amongst questions like name and address, it asks for NHS number. The NHS number just makes it easier to find you, but takes a few seconds if not.

If you hear anybody saying this or you are told this yourself, please dispel this rumour, or alternatively reassure anyone that had been told this it is not correct. 
If people don’t turn up they are called several times to come now or rebook.

[Well b back 3,190]

The Norwegian story is also highly likely to be a none event. They gave the vaccine to people who were in or near end of life care, often with weeks or even days at maximum to live, 13 of these unfortunately passed. It is not known wether it ‘ MAY ‘ ( as that is the word they used ) be connected to the vaccine as equally it could well be they would have passed at that particular time. As a precaution they have altered their advice to ensure people in that situation are not vaccinated, but they have asked for more of the Vaccine to be delivered to Norway.

When millions, even billions of people are being vaccinated, there will be people by the law of averages that have for instance a stroke during the next week, that they would have had that week anyway and absolutely nothing to do with it being connected to the vaccine. This some of you that followed the trials will tell you happened 2 or 3 times on the Oxford AstraZeneca trials, when only a few 10’s of thousands were involved.

[Barbe bleu 814]

33 minutes ago, Herman said:

Well that's not true for starters.

OK, 86.63% of posts then.

Looking at this did lead me to an interesting discussion on past exposure to  other coronaviruses, the T cell memory this generates and how this might impact on disease severity.  I was fairly reassured on the issue of mutations and that it would probably take quite a big jump for the body to lose all ability to react quickly (though i read nothing more on the duration of memory).

Guess everyone can draw their own conclusions though.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,748]

17 hours ago, Aggy said:

To clarify, you’re saying the clear and huge difference in number of both infections and deaths between last winter, this winter and summer 2020 had nothing whatsoever to do with the seasons? What reason do you give for the almost non existent numbers comparatively in the summer despite not having any lock down and barely any restrictions over the summer at all (eat out to help out!)? 

Aggy - I know you don't like lockdowns - nobody does.

However what I was reporting was just from a Radio 4 article last week - it was talking mainly about Brazil.

As to seasonality - the rough consensus at present is that there may be weak direct seasonal effect - thought to be that UVB is a viricide and obviously in hot sunny climes outside its more effective at killing the virus in the air or on surfaces. The virus is actually fragile (soaps etc.)

However, far and away the dominating effect at present and for the next few years (until most have some form of immunity) will be human behavior (that in itself is altered by climate) with 'seasonality' itself very much as 2nd or 3rd order effect. It is today very apparent - if you don't like Brazil look at Argentina's or S.Africa's numbers, India and so on - and yes even first time around the USA provided many very different climates to study - NYS to Florida, Arizona to Minnesota. All had 1st wave pandemics (hot dry, sunny, wet, warm. cold).

As to Eat out to Help out - that is now considered a (deadly) expensive failure - responsible for a 17% uplift in virus numbers (Radio 4 again). It accelerated the virus away in the late summer - gave it a government funded head start and needless boost. 

Lastly - you need to get your mind around exponential growth - even with an R of say 1.5 and doubling of say 2 weeks if you only have  few hundred active cases (as in June/July) it will still take 6 weeks to get to a thousand odd (but only another 2 weeks to 2000 ) - so yes we got the virus into the 'noise' in the summer, by the lockdowns ,  relaxed as dozy people thought it was beat,  took our eye off the ball and it then it quietly did its stuff completely as expected exploding again into the autumn. No surprises, no difficult seasonal explanations needed.    

[dj11 377]

50 minutes ago, Herman said:

Well that's not true for starters.

It is if you say it often enough!

[Well b back 3,190]

Many of you will know of Andrew Pollard, one of the main Oxford vaccine guys ( should really be Sir Andrew Pollard ) he has spoken today on a subject spoke of yesterday, the variants. This is an extract, but you will see he is confident their vaccine can be altered rapidly. Whitby quite rightly was saying the other day the MRNA jabs ( Pfizer and Moderna ) can be altered in a a couple of days sometimes hours.

A leading scientist with the Oxford Vaccine Group is warning there will be many more coronavirus variants this year.

"As we look forward through 2021, we're going to see lots of new variants and we're going to have to get used to that," Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, tells the Today programme.

"But the critical question is whether some of these new variants are adapting because of immunity amongst human populations - whether that is because of infection... or indeed as a result of vaccination."

He stresses new variants are being detected early - and, if new vaccines should be required, "we will be able to stand those up really quickly."

It comes as epidemiologist Professor John Edmunds told BBC Radio 4 it was "likely" there are already cases of both Brazilian coronavirus variants in the UK.

"We are one of the most connected countries in the world so I would find it unusual if we hadn't imported some cases into the UK."

[Van wink 2,994]

40 minutes ago, Well b back said:

The Norwegian story is also highly likely to be a none event. They gave the vaccine to people who were in or near end of life care, often with weeks or even days at maximum to live, 13 of these unfortunately passed. It is not known wether it ‘ MAY ‘ ( as that is the word they used ) be connected to the vaccine as equally it could well be they would have passed at that particular time. As a precaution they have altered their advice to ensure people in that situation are not vaccinated, but they have asked for more of the Vaccine to be delivered to Norway.

When millions, even billions of people are being vaccinated, there will be people by the law of averages that have for instance a stroke during the next week, that they would have had that week anyway and absolutely nothing to do with it being connected to the vaccine. This some of you that followed the trials will tell you happened 2 or 3 times on the Oxford AstraZeneca trials, when only a few 10’s of thousands were involved.

I’m so pleased you posted that cos without knowing the truth that was a worrying little interjection on this thread 👍

[Van wink 2,994]

15 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Many of you will know of Andrew Pollard, one of the main Oxford vaccine guys ( should really be Sir Andrew Pollard ) he has spoken today on a subject spoke of yesterday, the variants. This is an extract, but you will see he is confident their vaccine can be altered rapidly. Whitby quite rightly was saying the other day the MRNA jabs ( Pfizer and Moderna ) can be altered in a a couple of days sometimes hours.

A leading scientist with the Oxford Vaccine Group is warning there will be many more coronavirus variants this year.

"As we look forward through 2021, we're going to see lots of new variants and we're going to have to get used to that," Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, tells the Today programme.

"But the critical question is whether some of these new variants are adapting because of immunity amongst human populations - whether that is because of infection... or indeed as a result of vaccination."

He stresses new variants are being detected early - and, if new vaccines should be required, "we will be able to stand those up really quickly."

It comes as epidemiologist Professor John Edmunds told BBC Radio 4 it was "likely" there are already cases of both Brazilian coronavirus variants in the UK.

"We are one of the most connected countries in the world so I would find it unusual if we hadn't imported some cases into the UK."

We are fortunate to be well set up for genome sequencing in the UK.

COG
The current COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, represents a major threat to health. The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium has been created to deliver large-scale and rapid whole-genome virus sequencing to local NHS centres and the UK government.

COG-UK is made up of an innovative partnership of NHS organisations, the four Public Health Agencies of the UK, the Wellcome Sanger Institute and over twelve academic partners providing sequencing and analysis capacity.

COG-UK is supported by £20 million funding from the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the Wellcome Sanger Institute, administered by UK Research and Innovation.

[Herman 9,716]

23 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Tier One for us a month ago, now we are one of the worst in the country.

Newquay, where plenty flocked to for Christmas, and its surrounding areas are at around 1K per 100K.

 

Here's a similar view from the IOW.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/16/isle-of-wight-covid-catastrophe-island-hospital-tier

[Herman 9,716]

😀

 

[Aggy 752]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

1. Aggy - I know you don't like lockdowns - nobody does.

However what I was reporting was just from a Radio 4 article last week - it was talking mainly about Brazil.

2. As to seasonality - the rough consensus at present is that there may be weak direct seasonal effect - thought to be that UVB is a viricide and obviously in hot sunny climes outside its more effective at killing the virus in the air or on surfaces. The virus is actually fragile (soaps etc.)

However, far and away the dominating effect at present and for the next few years (until most have some form of immunity) will be human behavior (that in itself is altered by climate) with 'seasonality' itself very much as 2nd or 3rd order effect.
 

3- It is today very apparent - if you don't like Brazil look at Argentina's or S.Africa's numbers, India and so on - and yes even first time around the USA provided many very different climates to study - NYS to Florida, Arizona to Minnesota. All had 1st wave pandemics (hot dry, sunny, wet, warm. cold).

As to Eat out to Help out - that is now considered a (deadly) expensive failure - responsible for a 17% uplift in virus numbers (Radio 4 again). It accelerated the virus away in the late summer - gave it a government funded head start and needless boost. 

4. Lastly - you need to get your mind around exponential growth - even with an R of say 1.5 and doubling of say 2 weeks if you only have  few hundred active cases (as in June/July) it will still take 6 weeks to get to a thousand odd (but only another 2 weeks to 2000 ) - so yes we got the virus into the 'noise' in the summer, by the lockdowns ,  relaxed as dozy people thought it was beat,  took our eye off the ball and it then it quietly did its stuff completely as expected exploding again into the autumn. No surprises, no difficult seasonal explanations needed.    

1- Please explain how this is relevant. Nobody mentioned lockdowns. Bizarre.

2-

I’m not really interested in your own unusual and selective definition of “seasonality”. Lots of scientists think flu is “seasonal” only because of human behaviour. If it’s worse in the winter than summer, for whatever reason, it’s seasonal.

3-

I’m struggling to understand what point you’re trying to make regarding warm countries. You appear to be saying that warm countries never have flu (a seasonal virus) and therefore the presence of covid in those countries shows that covid isn’t seasonal? 

This is hugely flawed logic if it is what you’re saying. As I said in my previous post, the further north or south countries are, the more pronounced their flu seasons tend to be. The closer they are to the equator, the more likely it is the countries have similar levels of flu all year. But they still have flu.

Nobody is saying that seasonality means you can never have it unless it’s a bit chilly. We all know covid is worse than flu. But as warm countries have flu (a seasonal disease) despite being warm, it’s hardly surprising that they also have covid. 

4 -

According to Statista, on October 3rd there were 12,872 new daily cases. That was the highest figure for months and was the start of the upwards peak that led to the second lockdown. On November 12th (the highest figure - by about 6k - before the December lockdown), there were 33,470 new daily cases. 

So, after 4 months of having virtually no restrictions, and after a whole month of eat out to help out, it took 40 days for new daily cases to increase by 21k in the autumn.

Following the second lockdown, on December 8 there were 12,282 new daily cases, roughly the same as October 3rd. By December 17 it had gone up to 35,383. So, after a whole month of being locked down, it took 9 days for new daily cases to increase by 23k in the winter.

So in October the jump from c.12k to c.33k took 40 days. In December the same jump from c.12k to c.33k took 9 days. Over four times quicker in the winter than the autumn.

Unless exponential growth is also “seasonal”, I’m not sure it’s the simple answer you think it is, but perhaps I just haven’t got my head round it.

 

Edited January 16, 2021 by Aggy

[ron obvious 1,501]

21 hours ago, Aggy said:

To clarify, you’re saying the clear and huge difference in number of both infections and deaths between last winter, this winter and summer 2020 had nothing whatsoever to do with the seasons? What reason do you give for the almost non existent numbers comparatively in the summer despite not having any lock down and barely any restrictions over the summer at all (eat out to help out!)? 

What I find inexcusable is that everybody was certain that the virus would reappear with a vengeance in the winter. The summer should have been spent preparing in every possible way; any cost (financial & human) involved would have been a fraction of that of never ending lockdown.

[Aggy 752]

1 minute ago, ron obvious said:

What I find inexcusable is that everybody was certain that the virus would reappear with a vengeance in the winter. The summer should have been spent preparing in every possible way; any cost (financial & human) involved would have been a fraction of that of never ending lockdown.

We couldn’t have had the full lockdown all through summer . People would have rioted if they weren’t allowed to leave home other than for one half-hour walk a day for over twelve months. And given the low numbers all summer, arguably we didn’t need full lockdown during that period.

What we did need through the summer was something like the tiers being brought in earlier than they were, and then becoming stricter pre-emptively in around August/September. That would certainly have helped. Why we weren’t more proactive at the end of summer I don’t know. Was it the case that the scientists warned Boris and he ignored it, or were the scientists slow in giving the advice? I don’t know. 

[Van wink 2,994]

15 minutes ago, Herman said:

😀

 

99 already flaked out

[Van wink 2,994]

17 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

What I find inexcusable is that everybody was certain that the virus would reappear with a vengeance in the winter. The summer should have been spent preparing in every possible way; any cost (financial & human) involved would have been a fraction of that of never ending lockdown.

Absolutely Ron, we had the opportunity to get fully prepared. There were those ( some on here) who were in denial that a second wave would come, it appears the Government also bought in, to some extent, to that belief.

I vividly remember Jeremy Farrar saying on the AM show in June ? that we now had the chance to prepare for the second wave, a good opportunity to get a fully integrated test track trace program at national and local level established etc etc 

Edited January 16, 2021 by Van wink

[Barbe bleu 814]

Are we now saying that pubs, cafes, restaurants, shops and schools should never have re opened, even on the limited form they did?  That no one should have met frinds and family members and that all travel should have been restricted throughout summer and into the winter? 

And we should have done that with absolutely no guarantee that vaccines would be approved before the end of rhe year?

I'm not even sure that with hindsight this would have been a good idea.

 

[ron obvious 1,501]

What I was suggesting is that intensive care & associated facilities should have been beefed up enormously when we had the chance. I don't believe any sort of lockdown - other than house arrest - would have stopped the virus, but we could have had a better strategy for ameliorating the effects & generally coping with the emergency which everyone said was coming.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

What we did need through the summer was something like the tiers being brought in earlier than they were, and then becoming stricter pre-emptively in around August/September. That would certainly have helped. Why we weren’t more proactive at the end of summer I don’t know. Was it the case that the scientists warned Boris and he ignored it, or were the scientists slow in giving the advice? I don’t know. 

I don't know either but as we know that at all the stages where major action did happen there was a significant, sometimes very significant, delay between the scientists advising and Johnson deciding, I think we can make a very educated guess.

I agree the tiers should have happened sooner, they also should have been more clearly defined - they were supposed to make it clear and simple, and of course the restrictions appropriate to the need. But it was never clear or simple with lots of variations of rules in different areas within the same tier, and worse of all no clear criteria for deciding what tier an area should be in and/or when it should move up or down. I think most assumed that it would be based on the infection rate within an area but in practice there were many seemingly arbitrary decisions about what tier an area was put into.

But definitely the major factor behind them being largely ineffective is that none of them were implemented early enough and the virus was by then spread too widely to be contained by the limited restrictions impemented by the tiers despite in many cases the restrictions being in place for very extended periods.

Earlier and shorter would have been much better, both for our health and for the economy, and of course that is what the scientists advised and Johnson ignored.

[Yellow Fever 3,748]

3 hours ago, Aggy said:

1- Please explain how this is relevant. Nobody mentioned lockdowns. Bizarre.

2-

I’m not really interested in your own unusual and selective definition of “seasonality”. Lots of scientists think flu is “seasonal” only because of human behaviour. If it’s worse in the winter than summer, for whatever reason, it’s seasonal.

3-

I’m struggling to understand what point you’re trying to make regarding warm countries. You appear to be saying that warm countries never have flu (a seasonal virus) and therefore the presence of covid in those countries shows that covid isn’t seasonal? 

This is hugely flawed logic if it is what you’re saying. As I said in my previous post, the further north or south countries are, the more pronounced their flu seasons tend to be. The closer they are to the equator, the more likely it is the countries have similar levels of flu all year. But they still have flu.

Nobody is saying that seasonality means you can never have it unless it’s a bit chilly. We all know covid is worse than flu. But as warm countries have flu (a seasonal disease) despite being warm, it’s hardly surprising that they also have covid. 

4 -

According to Statista, on October 3rd there were 12,872 new daily cases. That was the highest figure for months and was the start of the upwards peak that led to the second lockdown. On November 12th (the highest figure - by about 6k - before the December lockdown), there were 33,470 new daily cases. 

So, after 4 months of having virtually no restrictions, and after a whole month of eat out to help out, it took 40 days for new daily cases to increase by 21k in the autumn.

Following the second lockdown, on December 8 there were 12,282 new daily cases, roughly the same as October 3rd. By December 17 it had gone up to 35,383. So, after a whole month of being locked down, it took 9 days for new daily cases to increase by 23k in the winter.

So in October the jump from c.12k to c.33k took 40 days. In December the same jump from c.12k to c.33k took 9 days. Over four times quicker in the winter than the autumn.

Unless exponential growth is also “seasonal”, I’m not sure it’s the simple answer you think it is, but perhaps I just haven’t got my head round it.

 

 

I believe the original unedited post was pretty straight forward and neutral to anybody wanted to understand it. That doesn't appear to be you.

The original throw away line  (radio 4) was seasonality not evident in Brazil - and what lies behind it - cause and effect. This is the usual scientific discussion point. Is CV-19 currently acting like layman's seasonal flu or not ? What drives it ? Is it intrinsically 'seasonal' beyond our control?. How can we limit it?

Some think that the virus went away if it's own accord last spring/summer as opposed to a human change of behavior. No 'lockdown' was needed'. Even more extreme there is nothing we can do to stop it returning. Carry on as normal - Let it 'rip'. 

Nearly everybody else in the world, all Governments , Sage, Indy Sage including those in the Southern hemisphere right now tend to to disagree. However, once most have some immunity 2nd order effects like UV sunshine may play a more significant part but presently human action or inaction dominates prevalence. 

I've no wish to carry on with this 'bizarre' discussion further. The very sad facts (and more so the events behind them) not wishful thinking stand for themselves. Luckily it appears our current more severe lockdown is turning the corner (yet again).

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, ron obvious said:

What I was suggesting is that intensive care & associated facilities should have been beefed up enormously when we had the chance. I don't believe any sort of lockdown - other than house arrest - would have stopped the virus, but we could have had a better strategy for ameliorating the effects & generally coping with the emergency which everyone said was coming.

Yes indeed, and as well as that we could have got test, track and trace working properly which should then have been a very effective tool in limiting the spread as it started to pick up in the autumn as we always knew it was going to.

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 hours ago, ron obvious said:

What I was suggesting is that intensive care & associated facilities should have been beefed up enormously when we had the chance. I don't believe any sort of lockdown - other than house arrest - would have stopped the virus, but we could have had a better strategy for ameliorating the effects & generally coping with the emergency which everyone said was coming.

Fair comment but the issue isn't the capacity, it is the staffing.  We have never been close to running out of beds or equipment but if you can't service them there is a problem and you can't train intensive care nurses in 3 months i doubt

Edited January 16, 2021 by Barbe bleu

[ricardo 7,347]

National

41346 - 1295

positives down 77k on the week

Local

remains fairly static

Vax increasing steadily

[Barbe bleu 814]

7 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Yes indeed, and as well as that we could have got test, track and trace working properly which should then have been a very effective tool in limiting the spread as it started to pick up in the autumn as we always knew it was going to.

That boat sailed in February/early march.  By the time it was widespread there was no contact tracing this into oblivion.  Dealing with institutional flare ups or skimming a bit off the top of the figures, sure, but as a serious tool for mass suppression? Not a chance. 

It just takes one infected key worker to get on a crowded train and it all gone down the tube...

Edited January 16, 2021 by Barbe bleu