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3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Worth remembering too that NZ locked down after us....

 

Sorry but that is both flippant and utterly irrelevent, and only serves to underline your determination to avoid this government being compared to the best in class performance of other countries.

The virus reached different countries at different times and in New Zealand's case, for very obvious reasons, later than in some countries but the key point is that New Zealand locked down at exactly the right time with respect to New Zealand's circumstances - a point, and the reasoning behind it, articulated very clearly by their leader in the video you refer to as good knock about stuff 🙄

NZ did some serious advance planning and came up with a well thought out strategy based on advice from experts all around the world, including the WHO, and their own observations and analysis of what was already happening elsewhere. They then made the right decisions at right time and implemented their plan with great efficiency and effectiveness, in no small part because they also communicated clearly and honestly with their citizens - in short their leadership was excellent in planning, executing and communicating.

The UK did not do any of these things.

I'll all in favour in learning from Germany, Netherlands etc, so much so that I distinctly making a number of posts last Spring\early summer saying just that because they were doing so much better that us,  and which you loftily dismissed as being far too soon to make reasonable comparisons. Interesting that you've now progressed to the point that you think it would be good idea, but only, it appears, because it's slightly preferable to comparing the UK with another group of countries which I and many others, were also pointing out as being even better performers.

Anyway to return to NZ I think, as KG says, despite the geographic remoteness NZ and the UK have a great many similarities and have one factor/advantage in common which absolutely key. NZ, and several other of the very successful SE Asian countries, are islands which control their own border and I include South Korea in that, as despite what the Geography text books say it is for all practical purposes an island.

The strategy in all those highly successful countries with signifcantly different culturally, socially and economically was really very simple:

  • Lockdown early and hard, before the virus is widely spread within communities and the country in general, with clear, consistent and honest messaging as to why it is necessary and what is required to be effective.
  • Close borders, or tightly control them with quarantine, to ensure no import of virus.
  • Test, track and trace all known cases effectively and ensure isolation.

The UK had the opportunity/potential to do all of those things but chose not to do. Germany  and The Netherlands to use your examples did not have the option to close their borders - theoretically of course they do but in practice it was never feasible.

We could speculate all day why the government passed up the original opportunity to check this virus - in IMO Johnson would have made the same wrong judgements even if he had been better prepared but in reality I think the opportunity passed before the UK Government had even started to take the crisis seriously. Despite the warnings that came out from China, the WHO and then Italy there never was a plan, never mind a strategy - what we saw last January and February was a government doing absolutely nothing as far as the virus was concerned.

What we saw last March was the government reacting, and far too slowly, to events and scrambling to throw together a response to a crisis that it had fatally (literally) misunderstood and underestimated, and about which it has never clearly and honestly spoken about to its citizens.

That chaotic, shambolic and ineffective approach has continued to this day and represents a total failure of leadership by Johnson. The reality is that you can compare the UK's performance (public heath and economic) with whoever you like and the answer will be that we did badly - its true that in some cases we only did a little worse but in other cases we are spectacularly worse and of course there are all the points in between.

The plain fact, since we are on the Pinkun after all, is that however you look at it the UK is in the bottom three battling relegation when I think most of us would aspire, if not expect, to be in the top three battling for the title. It is also abundantly clear that if you look at the factor(s) behind those countries at the top of the table and those at the bottom it is not social/economic/cultural factors that predominate - it is very clear that the quality of leadership is the primary determinate of success or failure.

 What is wrong with you? It seems to me that your eagerness, and more importantly that of like minded newspapers, to excuse or explain away this failure of leadership as something else (although they never seem to have worked out quite what) goes a long way to explaining why this Government hasn't seemed to learn anything, not from Germany or Holland, not from New Zealand, not from South Korea or Singapore...............and not even from their own mistakes because here we are, going round the block for the third time and we only have the scientists to thank for a truly amazing global effort to produce vaccines in record time to hopefully give us all a way out of this.

 

 

Edited by Creative Midfielder
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9 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Sorry but that is both flippant and utterly irrelevent, and only serves to underline your determination to avoid this government being compared to the best in class performance of other countries.

I'll all in favour in learning from Germany, Netherlands etc, so much so that I distinctly making a number of posts last Spring\early summer saying just that because they were doing so much better that us,  and which you loftily dismissed as being far too soon

 

 

NZ is not in our class, we may as well compare how well the Martian leadership have managed this crisis.  With KG and Indy agreeing  that our government should be judged according to our own standards you are largely alone in this is feel. 

As to the second point  re Germany and Holland I did indeed say months ago that it was too early to draw conclusions. That is because I realised that there was much still to happen with this and at least one winter still to face. I am content that I have been proved correct. 

With an end game now in sight and the second wave biting I think we can begin, just begin mind, to start drawing conclusions.   I didnt say though that we should be drawing  conclusions, what i said is that we should be learning from others.  Of course we should. 

I have been consistent in saying that our government got things wrong and hope that I am balanced and bring balance.  I wonder if all on here could say that of themselves?

 

 

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As soon as you see someone bring NZ in as a comparison for Covid you instantly know they’re not interested in a fair comparison, because NZ has numerous natural advantages which make it ideal to handle Covid, most obviously being a sparsely populated island thousands of miles from the nearest neighbour. I’d be interested if there’s any other country that has done as well with Covid as NZ?

 

IMO a large part of the Covid outcome for a country comes from its circumstances and experience of similar viruses in the past. Eg Japan and S Korea have built on a lot of experience of SARS and MERS which didn’t impact on Europe/US.

 

I think the UK government will probably be ranked about average in its handling of Covid, poor in some areas, good in others. If you compare us to other European countries the outcome is not that far apart, Germany was doing much better earlier on but has had a bad 2nd wave (it would be interesting to know why this is - I’ve not seen any discussion in the media).


I think one poster on here was criticising the UK government because it’s behind the EU in orders for the Moderna vaccine, which is completely desperate as a criticism given that the UK’s vaccine programme overall is well ahead (also the recent mutations should make us understand it’s not a race between countries, we need the whole world to deal with it for the crisis to be fully resolved).

 

Personally I think comparisons with NZ are very little help when looking at what the UK could do better. I would be much more interested to know some specifics of the Japanese approach to see what European countries could learn from it, but it’s frustratingly difficult to get this.

 

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5 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

NZ is not in our class, we may as well compare how well the Martian leadership have managed this crisis.  With KG and Indy agreeing  that our government should be judged according to our own standards you are largely alone in this is feel. 

As to the second point  re Germany and Holland I did indeed say months ago that it was too early to draw conclusions. That is because I realised that there was much still to happen with this and at least one winter still to face. I am content that I have been proved correct. 

With an end game now in sight and the second wave biting I think we can begin, just begin mind, to start drawing conclusions.   I didnt say though that we should be drawing  conclusions, what i said is that we should be learning from others.  Of course we should. 

I have been consistent in saying that our government got things wrong and hope that I am balanced and bring balance.  I wonder if all on here could say that of themselves?

 

 

😂😂 Pointless as always to try an engage in a substantive discussion with you but congratulations on your correct prediction last spring that there was much still to happen with this crisis and at least one winter still to face - amazing I don't know how you did it 😂😂

I notice that you still don't have the grace to acknowledge that what I said about Germany nine months ago has likewise stood the test of time, even though you thought then, wrongly as it turns out, that it was too early to learn anything from them.

So I guess I'll have to make do with a grudging acknowledgement that we should now be learning from others, that is a step forwards although like most of Johnson's forward step , it is a small step and way, way too late.

Rubbish response on NZ, presumably because you have no reasoned risposte but anyway how is the judgement of the government by our own standards going?

Because I'll tell you one more thing, you are definitely very consistent in claiming that you say the government gets thing wrong but bizarrely I can't recall you ever doing any such thing - and I'm pretty sure that is something I'd notice coming from you.

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4 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

As soon as you see someone bring NZ in as a comparison for Covid you instantly know they’re not interested in a fair comparison, because NZ has numerous natural advantages which make it ideal to handle Covid, most obviously being a sparsely populated island thousands of miles from the nearest neighbour. I’d be interested if there’s any other country that has done as well with Covid as NZ?

 

IMO a large part of the Covid outcome for a country comes from its circumstances and experience of similar viruses in the past. Eg Japan and S Korea have built on a lot of experience of SARS and MERS which didn’t impact on Europe/US.

 

Boll*cks - to put it politely. A key factor, as I was at pains to point out, is that NZ is an island or several islands if we are going to be pendantic and Great Britain is also an island - if you suceed in keeping the virus out and impose restrictions when you only have a tiny number of cases which you track and trace then it matters not one iota whether your island is sparsely or densely populated. As Arden said NZ locked down when they had only just exceeded 100 cases and she made the point that Italy at one stage had the same number of cases and took no action - they now have had over 2.25m cases.

UK likewise once only had 100 cases but we took no action much like Italy, who initially had an outbreak very geographically focussed. In our case it was London but we took no action at all even at a focussed regional level until the spread was country wide. We are now over 3m cases.

No one is pretending that NZ is the same as the UK but there are key similarities and if you think density of population is so important how come South Korea, SIngapore and Hong Kong, all far more densely populated than the UK, did so well?

Good planning and decisive actions have consequences, just as lack of planning, indecisiveness and incompetence also have consequences. NZ had the good planning and decisive action, we took the other route.

I agree that the SE Asian countries had some direct experience due to SARS etc but are you seriously suggesting that our experts didn't have access to all the data about those viruses and indeed direct contact with their colleagues in Asia - medicine is a pretty global science nowadays as the vaccine developments have very vividly demonstrated.

I'm pretty sure we knew everything we needed to know, in fact I'm entirely sure because there was a very big piece in the Lancet in January 2020 spelling it out, and if there was any doubt at all in our minds then we should have been listening to the WHO and those SE Aian countries who knew exactly what they were talking about - trouble is the inbred English arrogance just can't accept that we have anything to learn from foreign countries, even now that appears to be the prevailing view of many, and certainly of our Government

And that brings us right back to NZ - they looked, they learnt and they acted, we didn't............

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31 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

😂😂 Pointless as always to try an engage in a substantive discussion with you but congratulations on your correct prediction last spring that there was much still to happen with this crisis and at least one winter still to face - amazing I don't know how you did it 😂😂

I notice that you still don't have the grace to acknowledge that what I said about Germany nine months ago has likewise stood the test of time, even though you thought then, wrongly as it turns out, that it was too early to learn anything from them.

So I guess I'll have to make do with a grudging acknowledgement that we should now be learning from others, that is a step forwards although like most of Johnson's forward step , it is a small step and way, way too late.

Rubbish response on NZ, presumably because you have no reasoned risposte but anyway how is the judgement of the government by our own standards going?

Because I'll tell you one more thing, you are definitely very consistent in claiming that you say the government gets thing wrong but bizarrely I can't recall you ever doing any such thing - and I'm pretty sure that is something I'd notice coming from you.

Thank you for your message of congratulations. I think a lot of people were fixated with the present and unable to look beyond a few weeks. But most would have quickly identified a seasonal element, so it wasn't a big jump for me, or, indeed, millions of others.

I have been consistent in saying the government got things wrong. I recall saying that it bungled the 'containment' phase and did not resource contact tracing enough (for full disclosure by the time T&T became trendy i thought the opportunity long lost and a poor use of resources ). I also thought the rush to clear hospitals a bad thing. These messages can be found if you want. If you can fi lnd me saying the opposite then please post them here

I never once said that Germany had performed poorly in phase 1  and if you sung their praises I would not have disagreed. In fact I was very praising of their  T&T and said that I thought this explained their relative success in containment.

Despite how you may categorise it what I said that it was far too early in spring and summer to give a final score. 

I'm  not going to go more into NZ, it will take forever to lost the obvious differences that mean they were always better set than almost very else to cope but I will repeat what I put in brackets above (season this started, population density, distance to 'hot zones',  national and international mobility).  But then again everyone knows all this already..

 

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12 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

UK likewise once only had 100 cases but we took no action much like Italy, who initially had an outbreak very geographically focussed. In our case it was London but we took no action at all even at a focussed regional level

As i recall it the earliest cases detected  were in York and Brighton...

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11 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Boll*cks - to put it politely.

Well, I've given up on any intelligent discussion with you so you can say what you like, you've demolished your own credibility as far as I'm concerned.

You've not said anything new (although you've conceded you're not saying NZ is the same as the UK, which is something I suppose).

 

You're saying all that matters is that NZ and the UK are both islands... personally I think the differences between NZ and the UK - and more important, the differences between NZ and the rest of the world - are more important than the similarities and make the NZ comparison with the UK a generally useless one which is used mostly by people who have an agenda to try to knock the UK.

 

On the mention of Japan and S Korea, I'd be interested in finding out why they've done better than the UK (and Europe generally).  Are there lessons we could learn from them ?  Simply saying the UK is rubbish because we've not done as well as Japan is a waste of time IMO, what matters is an examination of why.  The fact that Japan and S Korea have both done better than Europe as a whole makes me think it's not down to the UK government.

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14 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I agree. I didn't make a social media video comparing NZ and the UK and use that as proof of ineptitude though.

If we are to make comparisons make them realistic or it just gets the government off the hook.

We don't need any comparison. Our Government bulls about world beating and other cliches. So back it up Boris.

Its not a competition. My vaccine is better than yours. We've tested more than you. Thats Trumpism.

Our Government has not done right by us. They misled us and their last edict is that its people not doing as they are told. That is true but its not all people just the same as it isn't all politicians or celebrities who have broken the rules and given the numpties an out clause.

Edited by keelansgrandad
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I found this interesting. Clearly would never be possible in the West. I wouldn’t have even realised it could have been fought with technology.

Not one person has been found to have contracted the coronavirus at any of Singapore’s three major universities, thanks to technology for enforcing social distancing, tough penalties and students willing to comply.

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Today is a major day in the history of possibly eradicating or at least controlling this dreadful disease. Exactly a year after China reported a new disease The Serum Institute of India have entered the war as opposed to preparing for it. Not only will they be supplying enough doses to immunise 1.5 million Indian citizens per day ( immunisation commenced this morning ) but even more importantly commencing in 6 weeks time they will commence their supplying of Covax with 1.7 billion doses for the world over a period of 5 - 6 months.

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There are lots of reasons we haven't fared well in the UK. One of the main ones is that the Prime Minister is not nearly as clever as he thinks he is. But perhaps another reason is that obesity is at epidemic levels in this country. 

I'm bringing this up because I heard a London Doctor interviewed on Radio 5 this morning. He said that people currently in his hospital with Covid are younger than before and "in general have no underlying health issues". He went on to say "but most of them are overweight". 

We shamed huge numbers of people into stopping smoking and drink driving and Blair's Government managed to get record numbers of people to stop smoking. Isn't it about time we did the same to fat people? 

Edited by dylanisabaddog
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So today we ramp up and we should have daily vaccination figures so we can gauge just how poorly or well we are doing to our clowns 2.4 million promise to get 13.5 million vaccinated by mid Feb.

I look forward to seeing us ramp it up and I’m in total gratitude to all those actually involved in the process from production, deliver and administering, big thanks from me. I really hope our government actually supports them fully.

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20 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

There are lots of reasons we haven't fared well in the UK. One of the main ones is that the Prime Minister is not nearly as clever as he thinks he is. But perhaps another reason is that obesity is at epidemic levels in this country. 

I'm bringing this up because I heard a London Doctor interviewed on Radio 5 this morning. He said that people currently in his hospital with Covid are younger than before and "in general have no underlying health issues". He went on to say "but most of them are overweight". 

We shamed huge numbers of people into stopping smoking and drink driving and Blair's Government managed to get record numbers of people to stop smoking. Isn't it about time we did the same to fat people? 

It was made government policy during the summer, you may remember Johnson himself being part of the campaign. Like a lot of things though it was a few day wonder, never to be mentioned again.

I do hope this campaign will become big again once the vaccination programme begins to take hold, so certainly in the summer.

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1 minute ago, Indy said:

So today we ramp up and we should have daily vaccination figures so we can gauge just how poorly or well we are doing to our clowns 2.4 million promise to get 13.5 million vaccinated by mid Feb.

I look forward to seeing us ramp it up and I’m in total gratitude to all those actually involved in the process from production, deliver and administering, big thanks from me. I really hope our government actually supports them fully.

I am back Tuesday, Thursday and Friday this week so I will update you on the improvements made and if deliveries are beginning to come in on time. You must also remember some areas are way ahead of others ( please, please do not take that as comparing ) here for instance I could have worked in 1 of 8 centres this week, and we are a small area. Also I wouldn’t take a huge amount of notice of today’s figures if they are low as when they announced 500,000 Oxford deliveries last week, the centres only began getting those mid week as under regulation the first doses could only be given in hospitals, look at expected Oxford deliveries.

I know once you get going thousands of volunteers come forward, but anyone wishing to volunteer if you do an internet search you will usually find the contact details. If that does not work feel free to pm me and I will happily help. This is a world war so the phrase ‘ Your Country Needs You ‘ does seem apt.

You must also remember over the coming days the weather will play a part, we get snowed in like Spain and that will slow things, we need some good weather.

The world is moving big time now with two more vaccines getting approval over the weekend in various countries.

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I think there was mention on BBC breakfast this morning that we're now hitting 200k vaccinations per day but they're trying to ramp it up to 400k per day, which would be excellent and is what we need to get to 14m by mid or late Feb.  I didn't hear it properly so I'm not sure if that means we're now at 200k today or getting there.

 

I am hoping the vaccination programme is essentially being run by the NHS with help from the military and they're just reporting back to Zahawi - that would give me the most confidence in the process !!

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12 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

I think there was mention on BBC breakfast this morning that we're now hitting 200k vaccinations per day but they're trying to ramp it up to 400k per day, which would be excellent and is what we need to get to 14m by mid or late Feb.  I didn't hear it properly so I'm not sure if that means we're now at 200k today or getting there.

 

I am hoping the vaccination programme is essentially being run by the NHS with help from the military and they're just reporting back to Zahawi - that would give me the most confidence in the process !!

I think they are getting this figure from Hancock yesterday. I have a feeling he may have said we will soon, but I didn’t see it. If that figure is right like I mentioned yesterday today’s weekly figure to Sunday will show somewhere around 2.7 million ie 1.3 million to 3rd January and another 1.4 million to 10th January. Going by the quoted figures of deliveries I am not even sure we would have had that much delivered and ready to distribute yet. 
Don’t be disappointed if the figures have not increased dramatically today, as I think in defence of Hancock he has been misquoted. After saying that it will be amazing if they have moved on significantly. 
 

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3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I think they are getting this figure from Hancock yesterday. I have a feeling he may have said we will soon, but I didn’t see it. If that figure is right like I mentioned yesterday today’s weekly figure to Sunday will show somewhere around 2.7 million ie 1.3 million to 3rd January and another 1.4 million to 10th January. Going by the quoted figures of deliveries I am not even sure we would have had that much delivered and ready to distribute yet. 
Don’t be disappointed if the figures have not increased dramatically today, as I think in defence of Hancock he has been misquoted. After saying that it will be amazing if they have moved on significantly. 
 

Thanks.  I have to suspect it will be similar to the testing numbers where they set a target, weren't really able to hit it and had to fudge things like counting tests that had been posted out, then dipped back down before finally ramping it up properly to the astronomical testing numbers we have now.

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Is there any need for targets? Why are politicians obsessed by them? Just keep accelerating the process and we will all get done. I'm not convinced that things will alter dramatically in our lives until we are all done. And even then it will be slowly easing off restrictions.

Surely even the most greedy have to concede the economy has to take second place until we have all been vaccinated and the data analysed.

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Ok the rough figures for vaccinations are now out. Please note these are not the official figures ( I am sure Ricardo will have them later ). Also I don’t know how these figures will be declared ( here let alone other Countries so you cannot compare ) but our headline vaccinations given is 2.4 million, however 2 million actual people have been vaccinated as 400,000 of those were second jabs. 
 

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35 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Is there any need for targets? Why are politicians obsessed by them? Just keep accelerating the process and we will all get done. I'm not convinced that things will alter dramatically in our lives until we are all done. And even then it will be slowly easing off restrictions.

Surely even the most greedy have to concede the economy has to take second place until we have all been vaccinated and the data analysed.

Spot on.

Maybe they realised we would have nothing to argue about on the pink un message board if they did not put these targets into the public domain.
However and whenever it is done will be a remarkable achievement. As it stands if it’s done by mid Feb, then March the Autumn as mapped out amazing, but if it isn’t they have left themselves wide open for some stick. Especially at this time of year there are many things that can get in the way a week of heavy snow for instance with mobility, 2 or 3 days of heavy rain due to queueing who knows. Especially the first weeks everyone is learning but it is not going to be as easy for the first groups simply because of their own mobility in many cases.

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2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Spot on.

Maybe they realised we would have nothing to argue about on the pink un message board if they did not put these targets into the public domain.
However and whenever it is done will be a remarkable achievement. As it stands if it’s done by mid Feb, then March the Autumn as mapped out amazing, but if it isn’t they have left themselves wide open for some stick. Especially at this time of year there are many things that can get in the way a week of heavy snow for instance with mobility, 2 or 3 days of heavy rain due to queueing who knows. Especially the first weeks everyone is learning but it is not going to be as easy for the first groups simply because of their own mobility in many cases.

The whole of the NHS is target driven, its something they are used to and as you say, gives us something to moan about when they are regularly missed.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

The whole of the NHS is target driven, its something they are used to and as you say, gives us something to moan about when they are regularly missed.

Please don’t take this as questioning what you have said, as Hancock has pointed out this is not an NHS target ( he went loopy when challenged on this by ITV last week ) this is a target as in something that has been said by those above him as opposed to any targets given to the NHS. The NHS have ( or certainly had ) no control of supply, distribution or where the jab was to be administered. The military and NHS were going to be in charge but that was changed and a minister was appointed.

If this goes wrong ( and I pray it doesn’t ) the last people at fault will be the NHS.

 

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17 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Please don’t take this as questioning what you have said, as Hancock has pointed out this is not an NHS target ( he went loopy when challenged on this by ITV last week ) this is a target as in something that has been said by those above him as opposed to any targets given to the NHS. The NHS have ( or certainly had ) no control of supply, distribution or where the jab was to be administered. The military and NHS were going to be in charge but that was changed and a minister was appointed.

If this goes wrong ( and I pray it doesn’t ) the last people at fault will be the NHS.

 

Yes you're quite right to point that out 👍

 

 

Edited by Van wink

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36 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yes you're quite right to point that out 👍

 

 

However, these things move on.

I am reliably informed ( radio 5 not inside knowledge ) that tonight’s briefing will be about numbers done, numbers going to be done, how and when. I then have no idea who will be responsible for the targets, it may become an NHS target, although I don’t see how. If that information is correct will be interesting to see if the invisible man ( the vaccine secretary ) puts his cloak on and makes an appearance.

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Anyone watching BBC you can see the process at the various points in the vaccination hubs as they show the pictures. As I mentioned you see the sheer army of people needed.

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Just now, Well b back said:

However, these things move on.

I am reliably informed ( radio 5 not inside knowledge ) that tonight’s briefing will be about numbers done, numbers going to be done, how and when. I then have no idea who will be responsible for the targets, it may become an NHS target, although I don’t see how. If that information is correct will be interesting to see if the invisible man ( the vaccine secretary ) puts his cloak on and makes an appearance.

I will watch with interest, most top level NHS targets are of course driven in the first instance by political imperatives. 
There are then those lower level ones, such as those around clinical governance, which provide the building blocks to achieve the high level targets.

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The plan is now published

1 - 4 will be offered at least one jab by 15/2

5 - 8 will be offered at least one jab by Spring.

 

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