Corona Virus main thread

[Yellow Fever 3,763]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I am not sure if this is relevant as I am not sure if it is doctors, SAGE ect trying to scare people into keeping to this lock down, but last night SAGE on question Time reported the average age in ICU beds is now 60, this was backed by doctors. BBC today in their live thing have a hospital saying 20 - 30 year olds with no underlying conditions on ICU.
Now opinion, I do wonder if some of this is maybe our doctors managing it better and where an icu bed is not going to have a chance of saving you, you move to end of life care, but I stress that is an opinion and I am in no way saying they are letting people die, more they know what the outcome will be in many more cases due to experience of dealing with the virus for 9 months.

This actually highlights the way the NHS problems can be misrepresented.

Actually it's not about deaths (sad though they are) but overall NHS hospital loading. An 80 year old patient who comes into ICU but dies after 2 weeks is frankly and coldly less of a burden on the NHS tha a 60 year old who survives but needs 6 weeks. It's the same logic as in a war - it's the injured not killed that overwhelm systems.

So - we do need to look very carefully and react accordingly to what demographics the patients actually in ICU are - and target vaccinations into that group to reduce NHS loading for the benefit of all!

Just an uncomfortable unpalatable truth.

[ron obvious 1,502]

From ONS data

 

ONS data for all deaths is no higher this winter than last winter

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek522020.xlsx

Could somebody please explain what's going on.

[ricardo 7,381]

5 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Could somebody please explain what's going on.

Yes Ron, people are dying and I prefer not to be one of them. Any analysis can wait until this is over.

[ricardo 7,381]

We are going to owe a big thank you to the military who by the looks of things have been involved in  organising the logistics on an enormous scale.

[ron obvious 1,502]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Yes Ron, people are dying and I prefer not to be one of them. Any analysis can wait until this is over.

In a perfect world nobody would die. In this world people do, & that includes those we know & love.

We're behaving as we are because of analysis. Unless someone can explain to me where I'm misinterpreting the data then all we're sacrificing at the moment is pointless - & those sacrifices are real & huge in terms of future lives.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

The new variant, linage B as its  also know as, has no relations to the previous breakout. It does not attack the elderly alone, it attacks all ages down to very young, so why should we prioritise the elderly? rather than vaccinating equal numbers of all ages. I'm a pensioner but my son is a productive taxpayer, as is his missis, so why do we not vaccinate all ages at once 24/7 non stop.

Flu vaccinations are given in a one way system ,standing up, you are in and out in 3 minutes. We do not need a chat and or comfy seats, that is all cinema stuff.

Indonesia vaccinates the working young first as they see the future as relevant. Are we vaccinating the oldest first for political self serving reasons? it would be very easy to make that case.

 

Looking forward to reasons as to why we should prioritise at all. And if those who are notified and invited are not attending without cancelling then staff should be able to give somebody else in the queue a jab and if nobody comes to get vaccinated, make these centers 'open to all comers'.

I have seen the graphic which shows the attack of this virus which has totally changed since September and it attacks all ages, no preferential  age groups any more. just saying, I would change policy , but we are now 4 month into the linage B variant and this cabinet, with people like Williamson/Hancock still there with their naive improvisations, so its not even in their minds. After all its the elderly who support them.

Edited January 7, 2021 by nevermind, neoliberalism has had it

[ron obvious 1,502]

7 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

It does not attack the elderly alone, it attacks all ages down to very young

Could you cite evidence for that please.

It does not explain the lack of excess deaths this winter.

 

[Indy 3,297]

All very encouraging that press conference, great to see all vaccinations centres including pharmacies and local surgeries being used and at long last the armed forces taking control......excellent.

But not once mention actual figures of vials available for distribution! It would have been nice to know how many vaccines we have ready to be delivered!

[Indy 3,297]

It’s always attacked all ages! The numbers have ramped up in the last five weeks in younger ages as they’re the ones who have been less careful pre Christmas. The new strain is more transmissible and larger number of all ages will certainly be recorded.

 

[Essjayess 307]

58 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

52618 - 1162

Local

An increase after 3 days of falls

Vaccinations updated to last Sunday 3rd January

1,296,432

Yes Ricardo, 3 days of slight falls was just a blip compared to Norfolk in general, where now there are 6 or 7 areas with the highest category of 800+. Its inevitable that City Centre West will soon be in the highest category to, in fact nearly all of Norfolk will have rollong stat above 1k within the next week, its at that point of course when our hospitals will be at their most difficult stage, so the peak has not yet  quite come to us in Norfolk.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

7 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Could you cite evidence for that please.

It does not explain the lack of excess deaths this winter.

 

I was not answering your question ron, but I will try fanning it up when I get to it.

 

[ricardo 7,381]

7 minutes ago, Indy said:

It’s always attacked all ages! The numbers have ramped up in the last five weeks in younger ages as they’re the ones who have been less careful pre Christmas. The new strain is more transmissible and larger number of all ages will certainly be recorded.

 

The fact remains however that it is the over 70's who are doing the overwhelming bulk of the dying.

 

[Indy 3,297]

Just now, ricardo said:

The fact remains however that it is the over 70's who are doing the overwhelming bulk of the dying.

 

Yeh totally aware of that Ricardo just responding to a few above from NNHHI, that the new strain is attacking younger age group, but it always has, just it’s in much larger numbers thanks to a lot of factors! 
Fingers crossed we do have the number of vaccines to get the 13 million done ASAP.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Redruth surgeries have asked that vaccinations are carried out at a local showground as they are worried about car parking. Trouble is, that is going to mean so many will have to be picked up and driven rather than walking.

Solve one problem and create another.

[sonyc 5,508]

1 hour ago, ron obvious said:

From ONS data

 

ONS data for all deaths is no higher this winter than last winter

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek522020.xlsx

Could somebody please explain what's going on.

The thing I take from that graph is that the lockdowns have had an influence. Without the two most recent ones then wouldn't the case numbers have risen like they did in March and April? And back in the spring were not our excess deaths well above the yearly average (only reducing much more later)? And we have locked down because of pressures on the NHS and not because of deaths? And that numbers of hospitalisations are overloading?

Anyway, just my take on that graph.

[ron obvious 1,502]

11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

The thing I take from that graph is that the lockdowns have had an influence. Without the two most recent ones then wouldn't the case numbers have risen like they did in March and April? And back in the spring were not our excess deaths well above the yearly average (only reducing much more later)? And we have locked down because of pressures on the NHS and not because of deaths? And that numbers of hospitalisations are overloading?

Anyway, just my take on that graph.

Case numbers would only be meaningful if testing was the same throughout. The only metric you can be sure about is the increase in deaths. That hasn't happened this winter, as is clearly shown by the table.

What is undeniable is the increase in deaths in spring, when the virus first hit. That spike behaves exactly as you'd expect in an epidemic. But by the same token you'd expect excess deaths to follow this new wave of viral infection. It simply hasn't happened - look at the blue line on the graph (or draw your own graphs from ONS tables).

The NHS is always running close to capacity - it has to, it's an enormously expensive institution to run. Since there was a general feeling amongst SAGE that there would be a recurrence of the virus in winter I don't understand why the govt. didn't ready the Nightingale hospitals. 

Japan's record is amazing. There was no lockdown as such.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

Personally I think the below paragraph is highly significant, more than the opinion expressed in the article. But, again, only my opinion

A recent report by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found people with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes are six times more likely to be hospitalised if they get Covid-19 and 12 times more likely to die.

Japan has the lowest rates of coronary heart disease and obesity in the developed world. Still, scientists insist such vital signs do not explain everything.

[Barbe bleu 820]

4 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Case numbers would only be meaningful if testing was the same throughout. The only metric you can be sure about is the increase in deaths. That hasn't happened this winter, as is clearly shown by the table.

What is undeniable is the increase in deaths in spring, when the virus first hit. That spike behaves exactly as you'd expect in an epidemic. But by the same token you'd expect excess deaths to follow this new wave of viral infection. It simply hasn't happened - look at the blue line on the graph (or draw your own graphs from ONS tables).

The NHS is always running close to capacity - it has to, it's an enormously expensive institution to run. Since there was a general feeling amongst SAGE that there would be a recurrence of the virus in winter I don't understand why the govt. didn't ready the Nightingale hospitals. 

Japan's record is amazing. There was no lockdown as such.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

Personally I think the below paragraph is highly significant, more than the opinion expressed in the article. But, again, only my opinion

A recent report by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found people with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes are six times more likely to be hospitalised if they get Covid-19 and 12 times more likely to die.

Japan has the lowest rates of coronary heart disease and obesity in the developed world. Still, scientists insist such vital signs do not explain everything.

Ron, the issue with the table is ot only goes up to 16 December.   It therefore reflects spread in november at the latest ethics was before the new variant really took off.   The game has now changed massively so agreed on excess deaths before variant but I strongly suspect that in a month's time it will look  bit different.

I am on here saying that we should be careful with comparisons with South East Asia and believe that something in the region (diet, genetics, climate, prior infections etc) means that what appears to work there won't necessarily work here.  Its my reponse to the 'why can't we be....' calls but as much as we need to be careful in concluding that china's lockdown or S Korean contact tracing would be a panacea we should also be careful saying that Japan had no lockdown and are OK so the same applies to us.

[sonyc 5,508]

39 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Case numbers would only be meaningful if testing was the same throughout. The only metric you can be sure about is the increase in deaths. That hasn't happened this winter, as is clearly shown by the table.

What is undeniable is the increase in deaths in spring, when the virus first hit. That spike behaves exactly as you'd expect in an epidemic. But by the same token you'd expect excess deaths to follow this new wave of viral infection. It simply hasn't happened - look at the blue line on the graph (or draw your own graphs from ONS tables).

The NHS is always running close to capacity - it has to, it's an enormously expensive institution to run. Since there was a general feeling amongst SAGE that there would be a recurrence of the virus in winter I don't understand why the govt. didn't ready the Nightingale hospitals. 

Japan's record is amazing. There was no lockdown as such.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

Personally I think the below paragraph is highly significant, more than the opinion expressed in the article. But, again, only my opinion

A recent report by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found people with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes are six times more likely to be hospitalised if they get Covid-19 and 12 times more likely to die.

Japan has the lowest rates of coronary heart disease and obesity in the developed world. Still, scientists insist such vital signs do not explain everything.

Yes, had we have been testing at the rate we are now in the last Spring I am sure the gross infection number was massive. I don't think that deaths are the most important metric per se, realise that makes me sound ghoulish...but it's simply for me more the human side that is important. I mean by that whatever the state our NHS is in, that we have the staffing resource to cope, and to cope with capacity.

We could debate about the health service itself all day long of course. The capacity of the NHS though is also required for other diseases and events (arguably more?). For me that has been the importance of the measures. It's a rotten trade off because everyone knows there will be other pain to suffer ahead, economically, mental health etc. The latter was in a serious  position pre pandemic (and I know personally through my second career). Pressures will only be 'pushed down the line' there.

Those last two paragraphs you've selected are arguably the most salient and I believe anyway, accurate. Japan has low levels of obesity and is the lowest for heart disease. I recall years ago reading about the possible reasons for this and as a result tried to change the diet to having more rice, vegetables and especially fish (oily and others).

I always think you learn from others / other countries for all kinds of things. Like with Chinese or far east philosophy (there are just loads of other interesting things aren't there).

Maybe once this is over, we will learn that obesity and diet create just the conditions that a flu or a Coronavirus affects the most? It seems very likely. In which case perhaps simple good distancing behaviours, good diets etc are enough. I'm hoping we learn these kinds of things. A quick personal note...I had a blood test this April. Thankfully clear (but gluten insensitivity) and yet I was pre-diabetic. My number was 44 and needed to be sub 41 (3 month glucose indicator). 48 is considered to be 'diabetic'. Last thing needed in this pandemic. I was shocked, so cut out sugar in as many forms and ways possible by about 80% and re-testing brought it to 35. 6kg off too. I'm in my early 60s.

So, I'm just saying we can all try and be healthier but it takes quite a bit of habit changing! And it's flipping hard (substitute the 'f' word). So, if these changes can be made by lots of folk we may be more resilient? I don't know. I still don't fancy getting covid or taking a chance. It seems a bas*tard from all the reports I read of fit and healthy younger people. That said, the stats don't lie re. deaths.

Sorry for longer post. If I was more articulate I'd have been able to say half of this and still get a point across.

Edited January 7, 2021 by sonyc
Paras put in!

[ron obvious 1,502]

Thanks sonyc for your considered reply. I would take issue with your comment about death as a metric. I think it's the only meaningful measure of the existence of a pandemic & as such I don't see a second wave. Positive covid  test results have been rising rapidly since September & there's been no correlation with overall deaths - quite unlike the situation in spring.

If you're using any other metric for the human cost, I would say the balance is inordinately higher on the other side. Although I can see reasons why quite a few would be quite content with what's been happening.

[sonyc 5,508]

In absolute terms deaths are the most meaningful metric. They are numbers after all. But my post was thinking more of the wider meaning of it all.....e.g. how medical staff cope, what do we do in future, what is the learning we take? What changes might we make in society and personally? How might policy be different? 

 

Those graphs are really interesting to me but at the end of the day it's all about the people.  It's what happens 'within' those graphs. And realise you'll possibly not disagree but are making a pure point about the consequences of lockdowns being fully worth it given the economic and other health pain (to come). And I have some agreement there too but as mentioned it's a trade off. So hard to draw the line and getting the balance right.

Massively hard too for any government. I don't doubt if it had been a different administration we would be in a very similar position, but just got here a different way. The virus wouldn't have cared.

I don't know the answer Ron. If I thought I did I would venture an opinion. I'm open to lots of different ways of looking at this.

Agree it's all the same wave.

[ron obvious 1,502]

49 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Ron, the issue with the table is ot only goes up to 16 December.   It therefore reflects spread in november at the latest ethics was before the new variant really took off.   The game has now changed massively so agreed on excess deaths before variant but I strongly suspect that in a month's time it will look  bit different.

I am on here saying that we should be careful with comparisons with South East Asia and believe that something in the region (diet, genetics, climate, prior infections etc) means that what appears to work there won't necessarily work here.  Its my reponse to the 'why can't we be....' calls but as much as we need to be careful in concluding that china's lockdown or S Korean contact tracing would be a panacea we should also be careful saying that Japan had no lockdown and are OK so the same applies to us.

It goes up to Dec 25. The graph shows infection rates rising rapidly since September but there has been no correlation with excess deaths.

 

Week1 is first week Jan 2020

[Upo 91]

9 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Your posting is very alarmist  but WBB has been doing his homework and if he says that the boffins said are comfortable that the mutations wont radically effect vaccines then so am I.

Sure this thing will mutate and the more pressure we put on it the more we will see the effects but unless it suddenly develops the ability to turn genes off and on I am happy that we have the ability through surveillance and vaccine reformulation  to force it into a situation where evolutionary pressure is against the deadly strains ( and I say this as one who said way back that i couldnt see much reason why it would urgently and naturally evolve to a milder form)

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202101.0132/v1

 

There is no "alarmism" with this virus. There is literally no measures that are "too extreme" apart from upholding the first moral principle of a republic under rule of law: equal right to life and equal right to secondary rights once first right is secured

And "Panic" is just a compulsively used term by confused officials out of their confort zones. It's a damn meme. People rarely panic. Most keep doing whatever in denial or sit down and wait for instructions or death. People need to be shaken out of their stupor. That's surprisingly difficult. They resist taking initiative. But in emergencies they do obey when told what to do even if it's really unconfortable. All we need is a leader with spine and good judgment.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Upo

[Barbe bleu 820]

3 minutes ago, Upo said:

 the first moral principle of a republic under rule of law: equal right to life and equal right to secondary rights once first right is secured

...

All we need is a leader with spine and good judgment.

Sorry which country and leader are we talking about?.  You used the word 'fall' to describe autumn in a previous post.  Good that NCFC have a global reach i guess

I am not sure that I fully agree with the assessment though.  Life is the foremost priority over all overs but we cannot be so obsessed with the avoidance of death that we omit to live.

[Upo 91]

8 hours ago, Well b back said:

I know I just put up this link but I think it is worth putting it up again as the vaccine had been about for 4 1/2 years they just didn’t know what the disease was going to be. Once the COVID virus was received it took the a weekend to adjust it to fight the COVID virus. It also shows how the vaccine had been tested in humans long before it became the COVID vaccine ( hence it wasn’t developed in 8 months ).

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/06/scientists-assure-oxford-vaccine-works-against-south-african-strain-13858132/

 

 

That article seems to use "platform tech", "template" and  "vaccine" interchangeably. Most likely poor journalism.  The virus didn't exist pre 2019. The vaccine did not either. It had to be developed from scratch. Protocols to ensure efficacy and safety are absolutely central to developing it. That we had vaccine within a year is the biggest scientific achievement this millenium. It is the result of billions and billions of $ and thousands and thousands of scientists working tirelessly towards it. It's a revolution. And yet its effectiveness depends on implementing brute force measures that suppress the epidemic to stop the virus from escaping.

Everybody should still take their vaccine.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

6 hours ago, Indy said:

As we get this under control it’ll be interesting if there are any younger under 50 groups who were hospitalised which has common theme like vaping? 
 

I’m sure this will no doubt need to be monitored no matter to which point we get to, come next year with vaccines we still need to be on top of any future breakouts or any serious mutation.

Certainly will be something we will live with.

Well I read a very interesting statistic in the Spectator this morning. Smokers were significantly less likely to be infected with Covid than non-smokers. But smokers who were infected with Covid were significantly more likely to have a bad outcome than non-smokers. Make of that what you will.

[Upo 91]

On 06/01/2021 at 22:49, Barbe bleu said:

Looks like an interesting read. What is the source for the text below the tweets, I might check it out.

Amazing how we can detect these tiny tiny mutations. Hopefully now we can take that knowledge and build k484 into a future vaccine variant.  I could well imagine guys working  hard on this right now

 

 

Do you mean what I wrote? 🤔 But yeah, one thing that I know will help us later is we get a real time sequencing surveillance connected to stand-by test-trace-isolate-secure units, hotline to someone in chain of command with a brain and well funded vaccine development pipeline with capacity to create vaccines for the whole population in days, and then roll it out to all locations with teams that stick them into people wherever they meet them and keep an eye on them for an hour in case of an allergic reaction or fainting. Doesn't require a professional. About 15 minutes of practical instruction should do and a phone number/video link with multiple redundancy to an actual professional in case of trouble.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

4 hours ago, ron obvious said:

From ONS data

 

ONS data for all deaths is no higher this winter than last winter

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek522020.xlsx

Could somebody please explain what's going on.

Would be interesting to see the categories of death. Presumably deaths by accidents are fewer as people stay at home and don't use the roads. I've read the flu deaths are down significantly, though don't know the cause of that. Quite possibly that fewer deaths in some categories are offsetting increased deaths in other categories

[Well b back 3,199]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

We are going to owe a big thank you to the military who by the looks of things have been involved in  organising the logistics on an enormous scale.

Have they announced it ?

They should have listened to the pink un, or themselves in September. I will post in a while and actually back them all a bit, but the military now getting involved, will be just what’s needed.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

4 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

The new variant, linage B as its  also know as, has no relations to the previous breakout. It does not attack the elderly alone, it attacks all ages down to very young, so why should we prioritise the elderly? rather than vaccinating equal numbers of all ages. I'm a pensioner but my son is a productive taxpayer, as is his missis, so why do we not vaccinate all ages at once 24/7 non stop.

Flu vaccinations are given in a one way system ,standing up, you are in and out in 3 minutes. We do not need a chat and or comfy seats, that is all cinema stuff.

Indonesia vaccinates the working young first as they see the future as relevant. Are we vaccinating the oldest first for political self serving reasons? it would be very easy to make that case.

 

Looking forward to reasons as to why we should prioritise at all. And if those who are notified and invited are not attending without cancelling then staff should be able to give somebody else in the queue a jab and if nobody comes to get vaccinated, make these centers 'open to all comers'.

I have seen the graphic which shows the attack of this virus which has totally changed since September and it attacks all ages, no preferential  age groups any more. just saying, I would change policy , but we are now 4 month into the linage B variant and this cabinet, with people like Williamson/Hancock still there with their naive improvisations, so its not even in their minds. After all its the elderly who support them.

To vaccinate 70 million people with two jabs at the same time requires 140 million doses. And with the best will in the world it takes time to manufacture and then package up the dose. Add in all the other countries with orders for the vaccine and you can see why it will take a number of months just to produce the vaccine.

Ten the vaccine has to be distributed under strict conditions, each batch has to be tested before it can be released, then you need a small army of vaccinators plus crew, so to do all vaccines in one week requires around 1.5 million jabs a day then stand everyone down for three weeks before performing second round of 1,5 million jabs in a single day. At the rate of 3 jabs an hour working a 8 hour shift you'd need around 10,000 vaccinators all trained and ready to go plus another 30,000 crew. I don't think the NHS has that kind of resource freely available.

You make a fair point though about priorities and as an older person myself I wonder whether younger, economically active people ought to be prioritised.

[Well b back 3,199]

27 minutes ago, Upo said:

 

That article seems to use "platform tech", "template" and  "vaccine" interchangeably. Most likely poor journalism.  The virus didn't exist pre 2019. The vaccine did not either. It had to be developed from scratch. Protocols to ensure efficacy and safety are absolutely central to developing it. That we had vaccine within a year is the biggest scientific achievement this millenium. It is the result of billions and billions of $ and thousands and thousands of scientists working tirelessly towards it. It's a revolution. And yet its effectiveness depends on implementing brute force measures that suppress the epidemic to stop the virus from escaping.

Everybody should still take their vaccine.

My information is from professors Bell and Pollard, go look on the come on Sarah thread. The vaccine was developed a long time ago, with very little funding, governments told them to go away when they asked for money to develop a vaccine for a virus that they didn’t even know what it would be, they just guessed there would be one. The actual Oxford COVID vaccine was developed from that vaccine, over 60 hours during the weekend when the virus read out arrived from China. The team did it, on iPads and computers from home, using mobile phones to stay in contact with each as they pieced it together. By then the vaccine itself had already passed its safety checks and had already been used on humans.
Sarah Gilbert then went in on Monday morning to advise Bell and Pollard that they had adapted the vaccine and they believed it would fight COVID. The rest is history.