Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,203]

29 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Looks like an interesting read. What is the source for the text below the tweets, I might check it out.

Amazing how we can detect these tiny tiny mutations. Hopefully now we can take that knowledge and build k484 into a future vaccine variant.  I could well imagine guys working  hard on this right now

 

 

Reading a load of reports they basically say the same thing. It is not thought the U.K. variant will bypass the vaccine, however the South African one maybe a little more problematic as it is learning to get into different cells. However all the vaccine providers feel that it will only slightly bypass the vaccine, meaning efficacy will be slightly down, but they still think it is ‘ likely to fight severe COVID ‘. More of a worry as it stands ( this could change ) for people like me who thought we had some immunity for at least a couple of months after having the virus this may not be the case if the South African variant took hold here.

Plenty of reports just search South Africa vaccine and variant ( or similar ). Of course you will see a couple of alarming ones, you will also see a couple saying will make no difference, but look at those with professors and the vaccine companies commenting. John Bell ( Oxford team ) is mentioned in plenty and reassures it would take 4 - 6 weeks to alter any of the vaccines.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Massive leaps in cases in Merseyside.

Even Cornwall has risen from 63 to 321. 

 

[Well b back 3,203]

6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think in there was the point I made a few weeks back about keeping the kids at school and locking down everybody else. Self selecting the virus to best spread via the kids!

It's like growing antibiotic resistance and super bugs. Don't finish the course and fully kill the bug - it will likely select for some resistance!

Or - whatever doesn't kill you will make you stronger (from the virus playbook) 

I think a lot of the reports in reality are saying, there will definitely be worse mutations for the vaccines. I don’t know this for certain, but I guess vaccines will need regular changes. It may well be it becomes like flu as I can’t see every person getting a new dose every year, but no reason I would suspect you can’t have flu and COVID jabs mixed together in a couple of years, for say the over 50’s and vulnerable. But don’t try it, I have no evidence for that, just a theory.

Combined with the vaccine we need a good cure ( something like antibiotics that work against COVID ).

[Upo 91]

5 hours ago, Well b back said:

Hi Upo

I take a lot of info from Jenner themselves.

Regards the South African variant, they are fairly certain the Oxford vaccine is not at full capacity against this variant, however they have a high level of confidence that the vaccine is having some effect. The results of the current testing will not be known for a couple of weeks minimum. Andrew Pollard is quoted as saying, at this stage we feel there is nothing to worry about, as even under a worse case scenario the vaccine can be tweaked within 4 - 6 weeks and would not need retesting.

He does not seem to concerned ( long term ) with this variant, the only thing I worry about is will all those vaccinated need to be vaccinated again. I am already looking out for more updates.

 

What I'm seeing is more alarm among researchers than at any point during pandemic. The profession was caught pants down and now have to come up with a whole new paradigm after the old one collapsed.

6 weeks for a new vaccine to get to where we're now...6 to 9 months away from full vaccination. We're working in real time here against probabilities. Hours, not dates. Those thinking in terms of weeks are either innumerate or don't understand it's not today's virus we're fighting. It's tomorrow's iteration, and the day after's etc

Higher R0 means higher proportion of population have to be vaccinated to suppress spread. That means more time to escape for a strain that is more than halfway there.

 A virus that mutates into a deadly one doesn't give a warning beforehand. If you're trailing the virus, you're training the virus.

The best case scenario is acceleration in vaccinations under measures that would have suppressed the pandemic a month ago but can now only just about hold our noses above water.

The worst case is somewhere between Outbreak and 12 Monkeys.

[Well b back 3,203]

Morning all

Here are some vaccine figures. It seems that some places ( as we discussed ) will defy the 1 jab 12 week rule and carry on giving the 2nd jab for Pfizer. Remember also this is highly unlikely to happen with Oxford as AstraZeneca believe 8 - 12 weeks improves their efficacy, and their approvals ( recommended from the data )around the world are on an AstraZeneca recommendation of 8 - 12 weeks.  ( forget any spin ).
I am not sure if you knock the 20,000 off therefore or the figure given is the actual amount of people ( as it states ) vaccinated rather than the number of doses ie 20,000 less people. 
 

Nearly 20,000 second doses of Covid-19 vaccines were administered between 29 December and 3 January, NHS England said. 

Some 19,981 second Pfizer/BioNTech jabs had been given as of Sunday, which was before the rollout of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. 

All vaccinations given before 29 December were of first doses. Both the Pfizer and the Oxford vaccines need two doses for full protection.

Overall, 308,541 people received a jab in the week ending Sunday 3 January, taking the total number vaccinated in England since the rollout began to 1,112,866. 

Of those, 661,224 (60%) were given to people aged 80 or over, the health service said.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Well b back

[Barbe bleu 823]

7 hours ago, Upo said:

 

The best case scenario is acceleration in vaccinations under measures that would have suppressed the pandemic a month ago but can now only just about hold our noses above water.

The worst case is somewhere between Outbreak and 12 Monkeys.

Your posting is very alarmist  but WBB has been doing his homework and if he says that the boffins said are comfortable that the mutations wont radically effect vaccines then so am I.

Sure this thing will mutate and the more pressure we put on it the more we will see the effects but unless it suddenly develops the ability to turn genes off and on I am happy that we have the ability through surveillance and vaccine reformulation  to force it into a situation where evolutionary pressure is against the deadly strains ( and I say this as one who said way back that i couldnt see much reason why it would urgently and naturally evolve to a milder form)

[Well b back 3,203]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Your posting is very alarmist  but WBB has been doing his homework and if he says that the boffins said are comfortable that the mutations wont radically effect vaccines then so am I.

Sure this thing will mutate and the more pressure we put on it the more we will see the effects but unless it suddenly develops the ability to turn genes off and on I am happy that we have the ability through surveillance and vaccine reformulation  to force it into a situation where evolutionary pressure is against the deadly strains ( and I say this as one who said way back that i couldnt see much reason why it would urgently and naturally evolve to a milder form)

Indeed, Pollard and Bell have said they will expect worse mutations, hence vaccine v virus. They have as I said low confidence that the vaccine will work fully, but high confidence that will just mean worst efficacy and still keeping at bay severe COVID.

Both Pollard and Bell say there is no need for alarm at the moment and important not to be alarmist, which I was trying to bring over. I have put a couple of reports that were even after last nights look, have a quick look at the Wall Street Journal ( first one ) if nothing else. It is mainly Oxford commenting at the the moment as they are the only vaccine ‘ South Africa ‘ are using when they start their roll out.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-expected-to-work-on-south-africa-coronavirus-variant-11609963906

This is quite a good one as it explains how the original Oxford vaccine had been ready for 4 1/2 years but it didn’t know the disease it was going to fight. Once they got the make up of the virus from China it took a weekend to adjust it to fight COVID, which shows how any serious mutation, they could ( as it stands ) just tweak the virus. 
https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/06/scientists-assure-oxford-vaccine-works-against-south-african-strain-13858132/

There will be some difficult times it maybe this, but currently highly unlikely. 

[Well b back 3,203]

Ha Ha Mr Johnson must have been on the ‘ pink un ‘ message board last night, look who is involved in today’s briefing ‘ The Military ‘ This is the guy who organised the distribution of the testing around different areas. 
Now we are getting somewhere.

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/06/scientists-assure-oxford-vaccine-works-against-south-african-strain-13858132/

 

[Indy 3,297]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Your posting is very alarmist  but WBB has been doing his homework and if he says that the boffins said are comfortable that the mutations wont radically effect vaccines then so am I.

Sure this thing will mutate and the more pressure we put on it the more we will see the effects but unless it suddenly develops the ability to turn genes off and on I am happy that we have the ability through surveillance and vaccine reformulation  to force it into a situation where evolutionary pressure is against the deadly strains ( and I say this as one who said way back that i couldnt see much reason why it would urgently and naturally evolve to a milder form)

It’s noticeable BB how some posters use multiple log ins but their spelling mistakes and posting style remains the same! Could Upo be Swindon possibly......

Might be wrong on that one!

Just to support WBB and TJ I’ve been told by those in the know that the vaccine will constantly mutate but it would take a step change in that it would have to become a new Covid virus for it to become another threat. Even then they now have multiple vaccine technology to turn a vaccine in less than six weeks if this did happen.

What has happened is still considered treatable with current vaccines, though they are cautious of its longevity and effectiveness.

Like others I don’t like daft posters who put up scaremongering threads without real backing, I’ll take my learning from the Oxford team and those involved in the process.

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

13 hours ago, Well b back said:

I think a lot of the reports in reality are saying, there will definitely be worse mutations for the vaccines. I don’t know this for certain, but I guess vaccines will need regular changes. It may well be it becomes like flu as I can’t see every person getting a new dose every year, but no reason I would suspect you can’t have flu and COVID jabs mixed together in a couple of years, for say the over 50’s and vulnerable. But don’t try it, I have no evidence for that, just a theory.

Combined with the vaccine we need a good cure ( something like antibiotics that work against COVID ).

Yes - but all of this is why I wanted to be far more ruthless, authoritarian even last March. China, Taiwan in fact SE Asia saw SARs and MERs and knew what could happen so no messing around. This is too serious for blind optimists and quacks. I have no time for them. 

And that's why even today I question our vaccination strategy. We have to break transmision asap and stop giving the virus time to improve, rolling the dice before it hits the jackpot with MERs lethality (30%). Everyday we dither it keeps rolling the dice like playing the lottery. A more infectious but no more deadly version of the virus was expected sooner or later (just Darwinian evolution) and in many ways is the least of our current concerns.

Hence focus on those who are most likely to spread the virus - essential workers, teachers and yes kids. At this stage the elderly who are not in care homes or otherwise exposed as a group will have to shield for few months.

 

[Well b back 3,203]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - but all of this is why I wanted to be far more ruthless, authoritarian even last March. China, Taiwan in fact SE Asia saw SARs and MERs and knew what could happen so no messing around. This is too serious for blind optimists and quacks. I have no time for them. 

And that's why even today I question our vaccination strategy. We have to break transmision asap and stop giving the virus time to improve, rolling the dice before it hits the jackpot with MERs lethality (30%). Everyday we dither it keeps rolling the dice like playing the lottery. A more infectious but no more deadly version of the virus was expected sooner or later (just Darwinian evolution) and in many ways is the least of our current concerns.

Hence focus on those who are most likely to spread the virus - essential workers, teachers and yes kids. At this stage the elderly who are not in care homes or otherwise exposed as a group will have to shield for few months.

 

Hi Yellow

After reading a lot of the stuff I think the term being used by Oxford, Pfizer, the scientists and now adopted by the government to round up your post is virus v vaccine is now a real battle.

I should stress though my posting and investigations in this instance were more about it becoming ‘ alarmist ‘ if that’s the right word regarding our and the South African variant.

[Indy 3,297]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - but all of this is why I wanted to be far more ruthless, authoritarian even last March. China, Taiwan in fact SE Asia saw SARs and MERs and knew what could happen so no messing around. This is too serious for blind optimists and quacks. I have no time for them. 

And that's why even today I question our vaccination strategy. We have to break transmision asap and stop giving the virus time to improve, rolling the dice before it hits the jackpot with MERs lethality (30%). Everyday we dither it keeps rolling the dice like playing the lottery. A more infectious but no more deadly version of the virus was expected sooner or later (just Darwinian evolution) and in many ways is the least of our current concerns.

Hence focus on those who are most likely to spread the virus - essential workers, teachers and yes kids. At this stage the elderly who are not in care homes or otherwise exposed as a group will have to shield for few months.

 

YF I totally agree, we have the society and systems in place to carry out mass vaccinations, it’s noticeable that the Oxford vaccine data was known back in September, we had four months to get millions of vaccines into vials and distributed ready for the go ahead. The go ahead happened a week ago and we’ve vaccinated about 400,000 people in that time! Only now are the military being mobilised and there’s still miscommunication between the so called Vaccine minister and thousands of pharmacies / surgeries who have vaccinated 8 million plus with the flu vaccines.

For me every day we don’t accelerate this process the more lives will be lost.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Hi Yellow

After reading a lot of the stuff I think the term being used by Oxford, Pfizer, the scientists and now adopted by the government to round up your post is virus v vaccine is now a real battle.

I should stress though my posting and investigations in this instance were more about it becoming ‘ alarmist ‘ if that’s the right word regarding our and the South African variant.

I agree and have always been optimistic that we would create a good vaccine and control the disease (I ought to come clean and state I'm a regular to 'Old Church' but don't run away with that)  - but sometimes the fear of God does need putting into daft people. That was what the people and authorities like them or not of SE Asia had and understood from day 1. We've been too cosy, complacent in our ignorance, removed form any reality for too long.

[Well b back 3,203]

12 minutes ago, Indy said:

It’s noticeable how some posters use multiple log ins but their spelling mistakes and posting style remains the same! Swindon possibly......

Might be wrong on that one!

Just to support WBB and TJ I’ve been told by those in the know that the vaccine will constantly mutate but it would take a step change in that it would have to become a new Covid virus for it to become another threat. Even then they now have multiple vaccine technology to turn a vaccine in less than six weeks if this did happen.

What has happened is still considered treatable with current vaccines, though they are cautious of its longevity and effectiveness.

Like others I don’t like daft posters who put up scaremongering threads without real backing, I’ll take my learning from the Oxford team and those involved in the process.

 

I know I just put up this link but I think it is worth putting it up again as the vaccine had been about for 4 1/2 years they just didn’t know what the disease was going to be. Once the COVID virus was received it took the a weekend to adjust it to fight the COVID virus. It also shows how the vaccine had been tested in humans long before it became the COVID vaccine ( hence it wasn’t developed in 8 months ).

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/06/scientists-assure-oxford-vaccine-works-against-south-african-strain-13858132/

 

 

[Indy 3,297]

3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I know I just put up this link but I think it is worth putting it up again as the vaccine had been about for 4 1/2 years they just didn’t know what the disease was going to be. Once the COVID virus was received it took the a weekend to adjust it to fight the COVID virus. It also shows how the vaccine had been tested in humans long before it became the COVID vaccine ( hence it wasn’t developed in 8 months ).

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/06/scientists-assure-oxford-vaccine-works-against-south-african-strain-13858132/

 

 

Thanks WBB.

[Well b back 3,203]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I agree and have always been optimistic that we would create a good vaccine and control the disease (I ought to come clean and state I'm a regular to 'Old Church' but don't run away with that)  - but sometimes the fear of God does need putting into daft people. That was what the people and authorities like them or not of SE Asia had and understood from day 1. We've been too cosy, complacent in our ignorance, removed form any reality for too long.

News from China, you mean like this ?. That’s the way to stop the bug*** until you’re vaccinated. Please don’t interpret that anyone that I just said it should be happening here.

The city of Shijiazhuang in China's Hebei province, home to 11 million people living a few hundred kilometres from Beijing, is being fully locked down due to a virus outbreak.

The city has reported 51 new cases today and the entire population is being tested.

BBC China correspondent Stephen McDonell says Beijing is already managing an outbreak in the north of the city - reportedly small - and over recent days there has been an increase in health checks and mask requirements indoors.

"People in Beijing are a little nervous that the coronavirus outbreaks in neighbouring Hebei province or the Shunyi district could swamp the Chinese capital if allowed to take hold - but so far that hasn't happened," he says.

[Barry Brockes 147]

We have learned this morning that for anyone who is a patient at a medical practice in Attleborough, Diss, Long Stratton, Poringland, Loddon, Pulham Market or Harleston  our vaccination centre will be in Poringland, we believe at Heathgate Medical Practice. Things are a happening!

[Well b back 3,203]

15 minutes ago, Barry Brockes said:

We have learned this morning that for anyone who is a patient at a medical practice in Attleborough, Diss, Long Stratton, Poringland, Loddon, Pulham Market or Harleston  our vaccination centre will be in Poringland, we believe at Heathgate Medical Practice. Things are a happening!

That’s great news.

I am working at one of these centres in a while, up here in the Midlands. I will try to post tonight to let you know what to expect when you get there.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

The Oxford roll out started hospital-based on Monday and is now being rolled out more widely. I think that was just in case they saw a lot of side effects with it being given to a lot of people (obviously older than the general test population who’ve had the vaccine already). I think that’s sensible so it’s not a case of it being slow getting started, there’s a reason for it.

 

From here on yes its absolutely vital the vaccine programme uses the full supply available, which is where the 2m/week number comes in. Certainly they should be under massive pressure to achieve ASAP.

 

Meanwhile I think the full-on lockdown should prevent there being any categories of people who are still mixing freely to spread the virus - as was the case before for schools. So I think setting the priority as the highly vulnerable plus NHS/care home workers is absolutely right and if we can get 14m of them done by mid Feb or soon after, we’ll have taken a huge step towards mitigating the worst effects of the disease.

 

Also I do not think we should import any aspects of the Chinese government system. If we look back, the initial response of the Chinese govt was to cover up what was happening- witness the appalling treatment of Dr Li Wenliang who was prevented from sounding warnings about the virus. Since China had to accept there was a problem, it is true that a police state makes it easier to compel citizens to comply with restrictions which it would be difficult to enforce here in the west. The problem is that when a government takes powers, it rarely gives them up. The freedoms we have in the West sometimes come at a cost, not just during this pandemic, but I don’t think that justifies giving the government power to act like it does in China.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

That’s great news.

I am working at one of these centres in a while, up here in the Midlands. I will try to post tonight to let you know what to expect when you get there.

Well done in this @Well b back it’s completely fitting for you to be involved in the vaccine program!! 
 

I’m over 50 so I’m in the bottom of the 9 categories for vaccination, I’m guessing at the moment early April for my jab. In the meantime I’m working from home & we’re trying to minimise all direct interaction outside our household, and I just hope we’re now into the endgame for the virus.

[sonyc 5,511]

9 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

The problem is that when a government takes powers, it rarely gives them up. The freedoms we have in the West sometimes come at a cost, not just during this pandemic, but I don’t think that justifies giving the government power to act like it does in China.

Agree with this ICF. It shows such countries can be ultra effective at controlling the virus. But control is the operative word. The cost is huge as Hong Kong for a start is finding out. As are people who have tried to communicate their thoughts.

[Well b back 3,203]

4 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Well done in this @Well b back it’s completely fitting for you to be involved in the vaccine program!! 
 

I’m over 50 so I’m in the bottom of the 9 categories for vaccination, I’m guessing at the moment early April for my jab. In the meantime I’m working from home & we’re trying to minimise all direct interaction outside our household, and I just hope we’re now into the endgame for the virus.

Do you know I was beginning to think the under 50’s would not be vaccinated as a matter of course. However I think some of these variants have changed that, I don’t think ( see previous posts ) existing variants are huge threats, but may prove to be more awkward. I think the new in phrase this is now a race ‘ virus v vaccine is code for everybody that can be needs to be vaccinated ASAP of whatever age to try and stop major variants ( such as South Africa ) going even further. I should stress that is my opinion not a fact.

[Indy 3,297]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Do you know I was beginning to think the under 50’s would not be vaccinated as a matter of course. However I think some of these variants have changed that, I don’t think ( see previous posts ) existing variants are huge threats, but may prove to be more awkward. I think the new in phrase this is now a race ‘ virus v vaccine is code for everybody that can be needs to be vaccinated ASAP of whatever age to try and stop major variants ( such as South Africa ) going even further. I should stress that is my opinion not a fact.

As we get this under control it’ll be interesting if there are any younger under 50 groups who were hospitalised which has common theme like vaping? 
 

I’m sure this will no doubt need to be monitored no matter to which point we get to, come next year with vaccines we still need to be on top of any future breakouts or any serious mutation.

Certainly will be something we will live with.

[CANARYKING 637]

54 minutes ago, Barry Brockes said:

We have learned this morning that for anyone who is a patient at a medical practice in Attleborough, Diss, Long Stratton, Poringland, Loddon, Pulham Market or Harleston  our vaccination centre will be in Poringland, we believe at Heathgate Medical Practice. Things are a happening!

No they are not , out local Care Home  has had their delivery cancelled two times already 

[Well b back 3,203]

Just now, Indy said:

As we get this under control it’ll be interesting if there are any younger under 50 groups who were hospitalised which has common theme like vaping? 
 

I’m sure this will no doubt need to be monitored no matter to which point we get to, come next year with vaccines we still need to be on top of any future breakouts or any serious mutation.

Certainly will be something we will live with.

I am not sure if this is relevant as I am not sure if it is doctors, SAGE ect trying to scare people into keeping to this lock down, but last night SAGE on question Time reported the average age in ICU beds is now 60, this was backed by doctors. BBC today in their live thing have a hospital saying 20 - 30 year olds with no underlying conditions on ICU.
Now opinion, I do wonder if some of this is maybe our doctors managing it better and where an icu bed is not going to have a chance of saving you, you move to end of life care, but I stress that is an opinion and I am in no way saying they are letting people die, more they know what the outcome will be in many more cases due to experience of dealing with the virus for 9 months.

[SteveN8458 64]

Worrying news regarding the South African mutation.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-single-vaccine-dose-165800915.html

 

 

[Indy 3,297]

This is why I have my reservations unlike others, some say possibly correct that the slow roll out of the Oxford vaccine is to see if there are any adverse reactions, but like I posted before, there’s been mass testing on all age groups in the testing phase and that was covered then so roll out should be faster in my opinion and this is what gets my concerns higher!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55576788

Ready but no Oxford vaccine!

Edited January 7, 2021 by Indy

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

6 minutes ago, Indy said:

This is why I have my reservations unlike others, some say possibly correct that the slow roll out of the Oxford vaccine is to see if there are any adverse reactions, but like I posted before, there’s been mass testing on all age groups in the testing phase and that was covered then so roll out should be faster in my opinion and this is what gets my concerns higher!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55576788

Ready but no Oxford vaccine!

So who is misleading us. The suppliers or Zahawi?

[Indy 3,297]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

So who is misleading us. The suppliers or Zahawi?

My money would be on.......the latter.

[ricardo 7,385]

National

52618 - 1162

Local

An increase after 3 days of falls

Vaccinations updated to last Sunday 3rd January

1,296,432