Corona Virus main thread

[kirku 1,332]

More people died today in the UK from COVID-19 than have done in Australia since the pandemic started.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, paul moy said:

Spot on. If only some others on here had any idea of the logistical issues.

They have had months to detail it.

[kirku 1,332]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

They have had months to detail it.

Absolutely inexcusable oversight. How much are we paying for day-rate consultants from Deloitte again?

[ricardo 7,343]

National

62322 - 1041

Local

Another very slight drop today in line with ZOE App numbers showing a decline.

[Well b back 3,190]

I can absoloutely confirm mass vaccination is beginning tomorrow in numerous sites around the Midlands area. I am doing my first 4 shifts tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I was beginning to worry all that online learning, and not heard a thing.

Lets get jabs in arms.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

48 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Beaurucrats love beaurucracy.

I am shocked, yes totally shocked.

Well no, not really.

That’s the whole point Ricardo, my recruitment for NHS professional staff as a Clinical Contact Tracer was a nightmare of red tape, appalling communication and unnecessary training,  to which I can attest, it’s the NHS  way, it’s a great organisation but has to cover so many bases when it comes to patient safety. Many people in my position just gave up. Government knew this and somebody must surely have had sufficient common sense to realise the same thing would happen again, the red tape should not have come as a surprise to anyone. For contact tracing the recruitment delays were not so noticeable as they are now for vaccinators, the urgency is there and the lack of foresight really is inexcusable.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,343]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I can absoloutely confirm mass vaccination is beginning tomorrow in numerous sites around the Midlands area. I am doing my first 4 shifts tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I was beginning to worry all that online learning, and not heard a thing.

Lets get jabs in arms.

 

As long as you know where the arm is situated on the human body you will do fine😉

Best of luck, get jabbing👍

[Van wink 2,994]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I can absoloutely confirm mass vaccination is beginning tomorrow in numerous sites around the Midlands area. I am doing my first 4 shifts tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I was beginning to worry all that online learning, and not heard a thing.

Lets get jabs in arms.

 

Brilliant, four shifts in one day!!!! 
Bring it on, or should I say stick it in😁

Edited January 6, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,343]

Just now, Van wink said:

That’s the whole point Ricardo, my recruitment for NHS professional staff as a Clinical Contact Tracer was a nightmare of red tape, appalling communication and unnecessary training,  to which I can attest, it’s the NHS away, it’s a great organisation but has to cover so many bases when it comes to patient safety. Many people in my position just gave up. Government knew this and somebody must surely have had sufficient common sense to realise the same thing would happen again, the red tape should not have come as a surprise to anyone. For contact tracing the recruitment delays were not so noticeable as they are now for vaccinators, the urgency is there and the lack of foresight really is inexcusable.

Much the same in all big organisations.

Paper pushers producing more paper to push keeps them in a job.

I realise its not quite that simple but common sense needs to be applied in this situation. We need a modern day Beaverbrook to bang heads together. Only jabs, not Spitfires.

[Well b back 3,190]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As long as you know where the arm is situated on the human body you will do fine😉

Best of luck, get jabbing👍

I am stewarding, and am an information point for information regarding the safety of the vaccine ( Oxford ). Fate is a strange thing would never have put myself forward for the role had it not been for a different thread. 
Did say I would give the jabbing a go, but they didn’t seem to keen lol

[Indy 3,283]

18 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I can absoloutely confirm mass vaccination is beginning tomorrow in numerous sites around the Midlands area. I am doing my first 4 shifts tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I was beginning to worry all that online learning, and not heard a thing.

Lets get jabs in arms.

 

Is that 4 off eight hour shifts! Catching up on lost time 😂💉💉💉

Good luck WBB....we should sponsor you a penny a jab to PUPS but it could be flipping expensive 😂. 
 

Seriously thanks for putting yourself in the firing line 🍻👍

[Van wink 2,994]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I am stewarding, and am an information point for information regarding the safety of the vaccine ( Oxford ). Fate is a strange thing would never have put myself forward for the role had it not been for a different thread. 
Did say I would give the jabbing a go, but they didn’t seem to keen lol

You are an information point, well that should be right up your street Wbb 👍 well done and good luck. Hope you get the jab yourself, although you should have some immunity.

[Well b back 3,190]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

Is that 4 off eight hour shifts! Catching up on lost time 😂💉💉💉

Good luck WBB....we should sponsor you a penny a jab to PUPS but it could be flipping expensive 😂. 
 

Seriously thanks for putting yourself in the firing line 🍻👍

Stewarding and reassuring Indy ( they seemed to think I knew a lot about the vaccine lol )

There were 8 hours some sites, 12 hours others, so at the moment they are breaking them down to 4 hours for people outside because of the weather.

If anyone interested, they seem to be large GP practices, spread around. The organiser for my area ( suppose my boss ) says deliveries will be constant so no one will know where they are coming until like a couple of days before. Then it seems to be they get 4 days worth of vaccine. They then just send a list of shifts through every day, you ring and say I will take x y z. 
Uniform and PPE supplied, however the uniforms aren’t ready yet, at least the vaccine is though lol.
 

[Indy 3,283]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Stewarding and reassuring Indy ( they seemed to think I knew a lot about the vaccine lol )

There were 8 hours some sites, 12 hours others, so at the moment they are breaking them down to 4 hours for people outside because of the weather.

If anyone interested, they seem to be large GP practices, spread around. The organiser for my area ( suppose my boss ) says deliveries will be constant so no one will know where they are coming until like a couple of days before. Then it seems to be they get 4 days worth of vaccine. They then just send a list of shifts through every day, you ring and say I will take x y z. 
Uniform and PPE supplied, however the uniforms aren’t ready yet, at least the vaccine is though lol.
 

Fantastic, well I’m sure you’ll do a great job, thanks matey.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Good luck WBB. Look forward to hearing from you and some figures that we can definitely trust.

[kick it off 1,948]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

Our youngest son ( 16 ) is college. He was due to take his BTech this morning ( with lots of others this week ). On Sunday the government said this would definitely be happening, by Monday, the government were challenged by colleges as they felt it unfair. The government then reconfirmed they were absolutely definitely, definitely 100% going to take it on Wednesday ( this morning ). Last night at around 7 O’clock the government decided to do a U Turn and ‘ left it up to colleges ‘ to make their own decisions. Like most colleges they immediately cancelled the exam, at 10pm last night ( 11 hours before his exam ).

The college nor him have any idea what’s happening next, his plans for next year as part of his career are currently in tatters, simply because of the uncertainty, sure it will be ok, but at this moment he does not believe that.

That's awful WBB - we've had similar with Travel and Tourism BTEC but we decided to go ahead with it for our Y11. Nonsensical to leave a decision like that up to schools/colleges.

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Good luck WBB. Look forward to hearing from you and some figures that we can definitely trust.

Thanks KG

Those that know me know I will ask lots of questions. 

[kick it off 1,948]

3 hours ago, kirku said:

Exams seem a really archaic and, as you've pointed out, somewhat random way of assessment. Why do you think we still stick with them?

I've recently done a post-grad qualification at work and the modules that were assessed via exam really stuck out as being a bit of an anachronism.

Tradition and a Tory party full of traditionalists. There is a debate about exams in the education community, and there are definitely teachers who support it. I don't like exams because they don't reward hard work, they reward a good memory and decent literacy. So many kids can respond brilliantly verbally and understand the content to a high level but can't touch the top grades, or even particularly good ones because their literacy is too weak. Whereas others who don't have such a strong grasp of the content but are good at regurgitating info surpass their level of attainment.

[Well b back 3,190]

8 minutes ago, kick it off said:

That's awful WBB - we've had similar with Travel and Tourism BTEC but we decided to go ahead with it for our Y11. Nonsensical to leave a decision like that up to schools/colleges.

Don’t know if you are watching BBC News ? The kids in their final college year on there who have to fill their UNI apps in the next 2 weeks. Don’t even know how they will be marked. I suspect it will be sorted, UNI’s extending estimates ect, but the kids are 16 - 18 such a stressful time for them. 
I confidently give our lad the dont worry about it, and although he seems happy with that, you don’t really know.

[Capt. Pants 4,195]

What a **** day. A race against time; vaccine vs virus and every day the virus seems to win. We need some good news on this and quick.

[Well b back 3,190]

Zahari is on Question Time now.

[Well b back 3,190]

He’s getting a hard time, business guy saying offered our furloughed staff and our premises, didn’t get a reply.

Regards the pharmacies he says although the pharmacies were declined, they can now reapply, seems they will bring them on board gradually.

@keelansgrandad SAGE saying government have had the knowledge of a possible vaccine since September why has this only just happened. Are you a member of SAGE.

For the record Zahari has absolutely guaranteed 13.9 million vaccinations by mid February. 
Doctors claiming in London the Police are having to take patients to hospitals as no ambulances

SAGE suggesting this wave severity could have been avoided

General opinion from audience must be fines for people who disobey rules

Nightingales have enough staff, London one will act as vaccination centre and hospital

Labour person struggling with answer to schools

Gavin Williamson ( in his absence ) getting lots of stick, pathetic, worse ect, school teachers, nobody safe, Williamson is vague. In his defence Zahari - 750,000 laptops gone out, Virgin helping with online and pointing out vulnerable children include those who cannot get a laptop, so they can still go to school.

There was a worrying statistic just brought up by SAGE - The average age of people currently using an ICU bed is 60. Doctors confirming this is the case.

Self employed not happy at grants.

No shooting the messenger please, but good news, providing targets are met, generally the same people in government getting stick on there are the same having it dished out to them here.

[sonyc 5,489]

Thanks Wbb. I really couldn't watch tonight. I doubt this forum is much different to the country. Views here represent a fairly wide spectrum don't they and I'm fairly sure most know that the whole thing should have been managed a lot better.

The good thing is that vaccination target (you may have seen those age and grim death stats on the Sarah thread) and if those 4 groups get protected we are 4 weeks away from a true turning point. Is that safe to say? As someone said earlier, it's a race now.

 

Ps. As an aside mother in law gets her second Pfizer jab ....3 weeks as originally planned. 

Edited January 6, 2021 by sonyc

[Indy 3,283]

WBB I can’t say I trust his guarantee, they’re in for a tough ride if they are short by mid Feb in that target, considering it’s just 5 weeks!

[Upo 91]

 

Looks like  it has leveled up fighting lions in Africa.

Emergence and rapid spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage with multiple spike mutations in South Africa

Also in Brazil

 

The B1.1.7 strain spreading out of control in UK (and soon elsewhere) lacks the E484 mutation. Slow roll out and incomplete immunity from vaccines gives UK strain plenty of "leveling up" opportunities against partial immunity "training opponent". As the vaccinations and infections spread in population, less susceptible strains will be selected as the dominant ones.

But since we already have superspreading strains with E484, mutation in UK is not actually needed. You already have the South African strain in circulation. It'll be selected once immunity level to B117 has increased sufficiently.

There is no particular reason currently dominant strains losing ground to superspreading strains won't acquire similar mutations. It looks to be "common". One more epidemiologic assumption Covid-19 has trashed.

After some time all strains end up having superspreading and immunity escaping mutations. Strains that develop further mutations in these will die quickly, except if the mutation increases infectivity. How do you apply selection pressure to achieve that? With incomplete suppression policies i.e. "lockdowns" instead of *lockdowns*. You end up training the virus instead of destroying it.

There is a happy clapping meme that has circulated epidemiologists for a long time and that is that because it's not in the virus' "best interest" to kill its host, a milder strain would be selected over the long term and the more dangerous a strain is, the less it spreads. Viruses don't know this meme. Viruses don't know anything. They infect if infection is possible. A more severe infection may cause increased viral spread. Often does. More coughing and more viruses in each cough? Like 10 times more viruses, three times as many coughs...half as early in infection? - A strain that is expelled at dozens of times the rate of a normal variant one or two days earlier. 

I think it's probably much more difficult for a virus to become more infectious than deadlier. Deadly mutations just won't spread around unless have a competitive edge, whereas a single infectious mutation can dominate all other strains. If deadly variants spread widely around, we'd know about it. All things equal a more dangerous strain probably is detected earlier, the host quarantined sooner and consequently spread prevented. But since we haven't analyzed viral RNA widely, we've had no idea what strains are spreading especially if they're suppressed early and remain local.

How deadly?

SARS1 and MERS have IFR of 10% and 35% respectively.

UK's border closures and alert RNA sequencing has bought others a few weeks extra time. It is being wasted. We're all in the same boat. It's a race against a hopefully low probability event before the virus gets there. Within weeks we'll have conditions in place all over the world that give the optimal environment for a strain be selected for "escaping".

[Well b back 3,190]

7 minutes ago, Upo said:

 

Looks like  it has leveled up fighting lions in Africa.

Emergence and rapid spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage with multiple spike mutations in South Africa

Also in Brazil

 

The B1.1.7 strain spreading out of control in UK (and soon elsewhere) lacks the E484 mutation. Slow roll out and incomplete immunity from vaccines gives UK strain plenty of "leveling up" opportunities against partial immunity "training opponent". As the vaccinations and infections spread in population, less susceptible strains will be selected as the dominant ones.

But since we already have superspreading strains with E484, mutation in UK is not actually needed. You already have the South African strain in circulation. It'll be selected once immunity level to B117 has increased sufficiently.

There is no particular reason currently dominant strains losing ground to superspreading strains won't acquire similar mutations. It looks to be "common". One more epidemiologic assumption Covid-19 has trashed.

After some time all strains end up having superspreading and immunity escaping mutations. Strains that develop further mutations in these will die quickly, except if the mutation increases infectivity. How do you apply selection pressure to achieve that? With incomplete suppression policies i.e. "lockdowns" instead of *lockdowns*. You end up training the virus instead of destroying it.

There is a happy clapping meme that has circulated epidemiologists for a long time and that is that because it's not in the virus' "best interest" to kill its host, a milder strain would be selected over the long term and the more dangerous a strain is, the less it spreads. Viruses don't know this meme. Viruses don't know anything. They infect if infection is possible. A more severe infection may cause increased viral spread. Often does. More coughing and more viruses in each cough? Like 10 times more viruses, three times as many coughs...half as early in infection? - A strain that is expelled at dozens of times the rate of a normal variant one or two days earlier. 

I think it's probably much more difficult for a virus to become more infectious than deadlier. Deadly mutations just won't spread around unless have a competitive edge, whereas a single infectious mutation can dominate all other strains. If deadly variants spread widely around, we'd know about it. All things equal a more dangerous strain probably is detected earlier, the host quarantined sooner and consequently spread prevented. But since we haven't analyzed viral RNA widely, we've had no idea what strains are spreading especially if they're suppressed early and remain local.

How deadly?

SARS1 and MERS have IFR of 10% and 35% respectively.

UK's border closures and alert RNA sequencing has bought others a few weeks extra time. It is being wasted. We're all in the same boat. It's a race against a hopefully low probability event before the virus gets there. Within weeks we'll have conditions in place all over the world that give the optimal environment for a strain be selected for "escaping".

Hi Upo

I take a lot of info from Jenner themselves.

Regards the South African variant, they are fairly certain the Oxford vaccine is not at full capacity against this variant, however they have a high level of confidence that the vaccine is having some effect. The results of the current testing will not be known for a couple of weeks minimum. Andrew Pollard is quoted as saying, at this stage we feel there is nothing to worry about, as even under a worse case scenario the vaccine can be tweaked within 4 - 6 weeks and would not need retesting.

He does not seem to concerned ( long term ) with this variant, the only thing I worry about is will all those vaccinated need to be vaccinated again. I am already looking out for more updates.

[Barbe bleu 812]

15 minutes ago, Upo said:

 

Looks like an interesting read. What is the source for the text below the tweets, I might check it out.

Amazing how we can detect these tiny tiny mutations. Hopefully now we can take that knowledge and build k484 into a future vaccine variant.  I could well imagine guys working  hard on this right now

 

 

[Well b back 3,190]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Looks like an interesting read. What is the source for the text below the tweets, I might check it out.

Amazing how we can detect these tiny tiny mutations. Hopefully now we can take that knowledge and build k484 into a future vaccine variant.  I could well imagine guys working  hard on this right now

 

 

Interestingly Pfizer and Moderna have not commented on the South African variant, ( that I can find, please post if somebody sees some ) but they are of course all different vaccines.

[Well b back 3,190]

In an earlier post about Question Time there was one I forgot, sorry.
It was admitted we had a lot of Pfizer held in reserve, the explanation was the government were not sure if their request to delay the second dose would be agreed by the MHRA. 
See when somebody communicates it all makes sense, we were all right, and we could have saved all those ‘ conversations’ on here.

[Yellow Fever 3,745]

44 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Upo

I take a lot of info from Jenner themselves.

Regards the South African variant, they are fairly certain the Oxford vaccine is not at full capacity against this variant, however they have a high level of confidence that the vaccine is having some effect. The results of the current testing will not be known for a couple of weeks minimum. Andrew Pollard is quoted as saying, at this stage we feel there is nothing to worry about, as even under a worse case scenario the vaccine can be tweaked within 4 - 6 weeks and would not need retesting.

He does not seem to concerned ( long term ) with this variant, the only thing I worry about is will all those vaccinated need to be vaccinated again. I am already looking out for more updates.

I think in there was the point I made a few weeks back about keeping the kids at school and locking down everybody else. Self selecting the virus to best spread via the kids!

It's like growing antibiotic resistance and super bugs. Don't finish the course and fully kill the bug - it will likely select for some resistance!

Or - whatever doesn't kill you will make you stronger (from the virus playbook) 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Yellow Fever