Corona Virus main thread

[paul moy 235]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

We’ve always been a leader, our life sciences are renowned world over along with our engineering, it’s a pity it’s overlooked by the UK itself, severe lack of investment in our own abilities.

Well we must be doing something right, but its never enough for some, even though we are a world leader. Leaving the EU will free up our own funds to invest in our country rather than going to others.  Another reason we voted in the majority for Brexit. 

[Well b back 3,203]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm  not sure I follow.  What has the same number?

The point I was making was that there are far more mutant versions of the virus in circulation than  there are of the purestrain wuhan version and we don't worry too much about all or any of them. It was the apparent extra spread that raised the alarm and not the identification of the strain and there is nobreaon to suppose this was remotely apparent until quite recently.

Ah sorry I thought you were saying the mutations only happened in December. The point was that Oxford warned the Government in October ( first seen in September ) that there were a group of mutations named B.1.1.7. ( not to be confused with the Spanish ( B.1.1.777 ) that seemed to be gaining in becoming the main spread and seemed much more transmissible. It seems we as a country did nothing about it. So the mutation was numbered B.1.1.7 which is the same mutation as the ones declared last week.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

40 minutes ago, paul moy said:

Well we must be doing something right, but its never enough for some, even though we are a world leader. Leaving the EU will free up our own funds to invest in our country rather than going to others.  Another reason we voted in the majority for Brexit. 

What funds? Farage and Boris were going to build hospitals with it.

[sonyc 5,517]

8 hours ago, sonyc said:

I asked yesterday WBB whether we ought to have a tier 4 / lockdown all over the country. I see on the main news today Pagel (who updates independent Sage) has called for one. My worry is that the rates will simply soar again in the north after 4 months of very high rates. Zoe reports a sharp increase to give an example (up 1600 since last week alone....it was as low as 1000 cases ...out of a population of 500,000 recently). Do we just wait and watch? It's ridiculous because we and scientists know the answer to that (I speak of course as a complete amateur) 

As for the nightingales I hear very little but just read that they are on stand by. Secondly, staffing remains an issue. And if rates keep soaring, then NHS staff are still at great risk (pre-vaccination programming).

Looks like a potential full lockdown on Boxing Day. Rates rising greatly in the Midlands too.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/gold-command-meeting-considers-birmingham-23208818?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by sonyc

[Well b back 3,203]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Looks like a potential full lockdown on Boxing Day.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/gold-command-meeting-considers-birmingham-23208818?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

Not shocked.

[Well b back 3,203]

8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Looks like a potential full lockdown on Boxing Day. Rates rising greatly in the Midlands too.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/gold-command-meeting-considers-birmingham-23208818?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

 

There are posts on social media suggesting all elite football below the EPL will be stopped for a month after tomorrow, but you know what social media is like.

[sonyc 5,517]

View on management of the pandemic here:

 

Even Boris Johnson’s attempts to reassure look like distress flares from a clown marooned on a fantasy island

Published:17:13 Tue 22 December 2020

 Follow Rafael Behr

‘Nothing about the situation is funny, except when Johnson’s touch makes it darkly ridiculous. He has a quality of anti-gravitas that extends to the whole cabinet.’ Photograph: WPA/Getty Images

When a political crisis reaches a certain pitch, emergency and absurdity start to sound the same. “The main message is: please don’t travel to Kent,” Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, declared in a live press conference on Monday evening. It made perfect sense in context. Kent is the hotspot for a new variant of the coronavirus. France had sealed its borders. The prime minister offered reassurance that the nation’s food supply was secure.

The UK government's chaotic handling of Covid made a Christmas U-turn inevitable | Catherine Haddon

This used to be the stuff of science fiction or satire. Only with the full run-up of 2020 could such a script land in a news broadcast. The acclimatisation to extreme events is becoming more shocking than the events themselves. There is a numb horror on realising that the preposterous has become normal.

Boris Johnson tried to sound unperturbed that the M20 had mutated into a lorry park for obstructed freight. He reminded his audience that the government had been “preparing for a long time for exactly this kind of event”. As luck would have it, a monstrous snake of traffic on the approach to UK ports mimics the scenario in which Britain leaves the European Union without a trade deal. A calamity inflicted by fate turns out to be indistinguishable from something the prime minister was planning to inflict as policy. This was meant to be comforting. When asked about the state of Brexit negotiations, the prime minister laughed.

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It was an eloquent moment. Nothing about the situation is funny, except when Johnson’s touch makes it darkly ridiculous. He has a quality of anti-gravitas that extends to the whole cabinet. Their collective inadequacy is hiding in plain sight. It is not even hiding. It fills the screen completely, obscuring even the memory of competent administration.

When Priti Patel was asked about failures of pandemic management today, she declared: “The government has consistently this year been ahead of the curve in terms of proactive decisions on coronavirus.” It is hard to draft a more precise inversion of the truth. The home secretary’s calculated cynicism comes from the same place as the prime minister’s spontaneous laughter. They express the same contempt for the audience.

This trend did not begin with Johnson. He stands at the end of a trajectory away from seriousness on a line that originates in the decision to leave the EU. That ambition, predicated on so many fantastical notions of what was available and at what price, uncoupled British politics from economic and strategic reality. The divergence became more extreme over time, generating a tension that made Theresa May’s tenure as prime minister unbearable. She wanted government that was still tethered to pillars of sensible statecraft, but without resisting the Brexit current that flowed fast the other way. It was an impossible combination. By picking Johnson as May’s successor, the Tories cut the rope.

Unmooring from facts proved to be a successful model, at least in campaign terms. Last December’s election victory seemed to confirm that Johnson’s methods would work. Brexit would be done. The distant shore that had been Britain’s natural political habitat for generations could be forgotten. There was no going back. That confidence deferred any sense of urgency about bridging the gap between the leadership qualities needed for responsible government and the character of the prime minister. Johnson and reality had competed for the loyalty of the Tory party and Johnson had won by a landslide.

Then the coronavirus turned up and the challenge it posed was qualitatively different to the political problems associated with Brexit. In theory, the value of EU membership to Britain could be empirically measured but the numbers could be disputed. Mostly the argument played out in the realms of culture, history and identity, where rival sides can dig ever deeper into rival trenches without hitting a bedrock of hard science.

That was not the case with a virus. And in a pandemic, the consequences of bad government are felt fast. The Tory leader’s Brexit repertoire of rhetorical flummery has no utility when people need urgent, practical guidance. The disease could not be tamed by optimism. The tide that swept Johnson to power marooned him on a fantasy island. The public messages he issues by way of reassurance have started to look more like distress flares.

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Many Tory MPs know that Johnson is unfit to lead the country in the current circumstances, but they cannot admit the bigger fraud in which they were complicit – selling him to the public as someone who was fit to lead in any circumstances. There is much grumbling about the direction of pandemic regulation. There is residual whining about compromises with Brussels in any final Brexit settlement, but that is displacement activity. The Conservative party is not giving up on Johnson. There is no route back along the way they came, and his plan is as good as any other.

It has three elements: wait for mass vaccination to tame Covid; hope the public mourns its losses as the cost of a freak disaster and not government negligence; blame all the downsides of Brexit on the pandemic. The resilience of the Tory rating in opinion polls throughout 2020 suggests there is some mileage in that strategy.

It still leaves the problem of Johnson’s manner – his unshakable habit of crass levity. Even in the midst of national tragedy he adopts the sombre pose awkwardly, like a football mascot observing the minute’s silence on Remembrance Sunday. Some Tories are embarrassed by it, but for the cabinet it is a kind of defence. He is the one Britain chose. Everyone knew who he was; what he is. Caveat emptor. You don’t hire a clown and then complain that his nose is too red.

This government has tested to destruction Mark Twain’s maxim that “no church, no nobility, no royalty or other fraud, can face ridicule in a fair field and live”. Johnson’s capacity to brazen out ridicule, to co-opt it to his service, is his secret weapon. I have heard it said that the outlandish character of British politics in 2020 has made satire redundant, but it is more accurate to say that satire has been turned upside down. The traditional satirical model uses mockery as a weapon against authority. But we have a prime minister whose whole career makes a mockery of the idea that power should be wielded by someone serious. He has turned Downing Street into a stage on which he performs a pastiche of traditional authority.

The longer that show goes on, the harder it gets to remember what good government ever felt like. The deeper we go into this emergency, the more it shades into absurdity and the absurdity starts to feel like normality. The clown sets aside his red nose. No one is laughing at him any more. But he is surely laughing at us.

• Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist

[sonyc 5,517]

9 minutes ago, Well b back said:

There are posts on social media suggesting all elite football below the EPL will be stopped for a month after tomorrow, but you know what social media is like.

I can believe this happening actually. We've had about a half dozen games affected very recently. Two of Millwall's games are off. You then wonder how fixture congestion might play out? The EPL are doubling up on tests I read.

 

More generally, a worry is that NHS leaders tonight are concerned at the rate of vaccine distribution. AstraZeneca needs to be ratified soon!

[Well b back 3,203]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I can believe this happening actually. We've had about a half dozen games affected very recently. Two of Millwall's games are off. You then wonder how fixture congestion might play out? The EPL are doubling up on tests I read.

 

More generally, a worry is that NHS leaders tonight are concerned at the rate of vaccine distribution. AstraZeneca needs to be ratified soon!

Don’t these days have much time for PL but he sums it up well

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55413489

 

 

[sonyc 5,517]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Don’t these days have much time for PL but he sums it up well

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55413489

 

 

Yes I go along with his views on this. Maybe it can survive because of so many games being played before without any fans. For the EFL I guess they've had some financial help from the EPL but if things haven't got back to normal by March it will become difficult for many clubs. Warnock today spoke of how many matches clubs have had to play too.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

31 minutes ago, Well b back said:

There are posts on social media suggesting all elite football below the EPL will be stopped for a month after tomorrow, but you know what social media is like.

Stop the EPL as well. A circuit breaker won't work if one strand is still connected.

[Well b back 3,203]

3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Stop the EPL as well. A circuit breaker won't work if one strand is still connected.

Money talks KG, but wouldn’t be shocked if the EPL wasn’t stopped as well. Although more likely will be the EPL being allowed to jump the vaccine quees to keep us all entertained.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

35 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Money talks KG, but wouldn’t be shocked if the EPL wasn’t stopped as well. Although more likely will be the EPL being allowed to jump the vaccine quees to keep us all entertained.

I was thinking something similar. We have decided to give it to EPL players for the good of the publics mental health.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

#makerorwellfictionagain

 

 

[horsefly 4,299]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ministers-ignored-own-scientists-advice-to-cut-christmas-relaxation-to-one-or-two-days/ar-BB1c932w?ocid=msedgntp

The government’s decision to ignore weeks of warnings by its own scientific advisers to cut the Christmas relaxation to one or two days made things “much more difficult” for many people, scientists have said.

Boris Johnson was urged to cut the Christmas relaxation to one or two days as early as December 2, documents have revealed.

But the prime minister chose to press on with plans for a five-day lifting of rules, calling it “inhuman” to consider withdrawing them as recently as Wednesday.

[Herman 9,759]

10 hours ago, Iwans Big Toe said:

#makerorwellfictionagain

 

 

#orwellwasneverfiction 🥴😄

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Ian Dale said he was with Boris and all he wants is to be liked. He doesn't understand when even Tories criticise him.

Well that is an excellent qualification to run what Jools, RTB and Swindon see as a great world power.

[Well b back 3,203]

13 hours ago, paul moy said:

Well we must be doing something right, but its never enough for some, even though we are a world leader. Leaving the EU will free up our own funds to invest in our country rather than going to others.  Another reason we voted in the majority for Brexit. 

There ain’t none left to invest. 

[ricardo 7,385]

52 minutes ago, Herman said:

#orwellwasneverfiction 🥴😄

High winds down the north sea tomorrow

#orwellbridgeshutagain?

Edited December 23, 2020 by ricardo

[ron obvious 1,502]

Couple of alternative views, 2nd perhaps less reasoned than the first  🙃

https://www.facebook.com/danjgregory/videos/10158974523867402

 

 

[Herman 9,759]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

High winds down the north sea tomorrow

#orwellbridgeshutagain?

Orwell Bridge shut again. Britain isolated? 😀

[ron obvious 1,502]

I've been trying to find some information about historical UK death rates, which has been difficult as most graphs go up to about 2018 or focus on 2020.

As far as I can tell from the ONS the total deaths this year look to be approx. 600,000 for England & Wales. With a population of 61.1m that gives 9.8/1,000 death rate.

This graph seems to suggest that death rates have gone back to 2005 levels. Anybody suggest why the  steady drop from 1980 started to reverse in 2013? Nobody mentioned it at the time. Also wondering why U.N. projections show it rising from then on?

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate

Edited December 23, 2020 by ron obvious

[ricardo 7,385]

Hardly a surprise that countries that do most of the looking also do most of the finding.

Some don't seem to bother much looking at all.

 

[sonyc 5,517]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hardly a surprise that countries that do most of the looking also do most of the finding.

Some don't seem to bother much looking at all.

 

That's a good find Ricardo. Fascinating to compare. It's made me think too just now.

I sense that some people don't read widely too in my view. They don't go looking.  They find something 'close to home' that suits a part of their world view and then they remain with it the rest of their lives. In such a way folk defend a corner. 

It's a battle to keep ones eyes open. Certainly a challenge for me.

( Ps. I doubt if I will have anything more interesting to say than this in the current year!)

[Barbe bleu 824]

16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hardly a surprise that countries that do most of the looking also do most of the finding.

Some don't seem to bother much looking at all.

 

I am not entirely sure what this shows but it certainly shows something significant! Do you have the source?

[ricardo 7,385]

https://us.cnn.com/2020/12/22/health/uk-coronavirus-variant-surveillance/index.html

 

Well, who would have guessed it.

[ricardo 7,385]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I am not entirely sure what this shows but it certainly shows something significant! Do you have the source?

Its the number of discovered and notified genomes of the Covid19 coronavirus. The chart shows who discovered and notified them.

[sonyc 5,517]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

https://us.cnn.com/2020/12/22/health/uk-coronavirus-variant-surveillance/index.html

 

Well, who would have guessed it.

No longer will Trump call it the China virus then.

[Van wink 2,994]

23 minutes ago, ricardo said:

https://us.cnn.com/2020/12/22/health/uk-coronavirus-variant-surveillance/index.html

 

Well, who would have guessed it.

Never in doubt was it? At least we have the dubious honour of this little mutant being named after us, global Britain 😉

[sonyc 5,517]

Norfolk and Suffolk then to tier 4 as expected. No more at Carrow Rd. Hope rates level soon then fall.