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4 hours ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Keep safe. None of us wish you anything but good health.

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Looks like California has its very own Dom

“California governor went to party, violated own virus rules

AOL.COM 3 hrs ago

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — For months, Gov. Gavin Newsom has pleaded with Californians to resist the temptation to socialize with friends and relatives outside their household. Turns out, he's the one who couldn't resist.

Newsom acknowledged Friday he attended a birthday party with a dozen friends on Nov. 6 at the posh French Laundry restaurant in wine country north of San Francisco.”

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Finally if you really want to debate whether lockdown is the 'correct' policy then you have to start being a lot more precise about what you mean by lockdown and indeed what your policy is expected to accomplish.

CM,  frankly I dont know if the Welsh government got it right, and nor does anyone else.   We will know once this is over and not before (unless the hospitals are overrun in december or january i guess)

This is why i have given the French example (others would work equally well-poland, romania and spain spring to mind)   Lockdown one there appeared to be a massive success, but since then the virus has very clearly made up for lost time and spreading  quite easily in a naive population.  Whether it will make up fully no one really knows yet.

let us be in no doubt  that success of any lockdown is based entirely on how quickly a vaccine  programme gets going. Unless of course herd immunity is gained the other way...

..

We've discussed NZ so many times on here.   Lockdown looks, so far, to have been the right policy for them, I am happy for NZ as it is a country very close to my heart. but NZ is not South Wales, its not even New South Wales.

My takeaway is that it is not over until its over. Lockdown puts nothing in the bank and any gains can be very rapidly lost.

Until it is we must at all time exercise our own controls and remain vigilent.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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5 hours ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Best wishes 👍

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You might want to check out Sweden's excess deaths for the year

Figures just out

You lot are kin mugs

Enjoy the great reset

 

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

We've discussed NZ so many times on here.   Lockdown looks, so far, to have been the right policy for them, I am happy for NZ as it is a country very close to my heart. but NZ is not South Wales, its not even New South Wales.

My takeaway is that it is not over until its over. Lockdown puts nothing in the bank and any gains can be very rapidly lost.

Until it is we must at all time exercise our own controls and remain vigilent.

 

Much of Eastern Europe missed out on the early spring pandemic but are now making up for it big time. We will all finish up in very similar size boats by the time this ends.

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

CM,  frankly I dont know if the Welsh government got it right, and nor does anyone else.   We will know once this is over and not before (unless the hospitals are overrun in december or january i guess)

This is why i have given the French example (others would work equally well-poland, romania and spain spring to mind)   Lockdown one there appeared to be a massive success, but since then the virus has very clearly made up for lost time and spreading  quite easily in a naive population.  Whether it will make up fully no one really knows yet.

let us be in no doubt  that success of any lockdown is based entirely on how quickly a vaccine  programme gets going. Unless of course herd immunity is gained the other way...

..

We've discussed NZ so many times on here.   Lockdown looks, so far, to have been the right policy for them, I am happy for NZ as it is a country very close to my heart. but NZ is not South Wales, its not even New South Wales.

My takeaway is that it is not over until its over. Lockdown puts nothing in the bank and any gains can be very rapidly lost.

Until it is we must at all time exercise our own controls and remain vigilent.

 

I think what you actually mean is that you are not prepared to admit that they got it right, and by implication Johnson got it wrong because you have a real issue with that concept.

Most of us know that the Welsh got it right because they identified that they had a serious and still developing crisis and they formulated a policy to mitigate against its effects, which it duly did - the policy was therefore by definition right unless you are going to try and suggest that they were wrong in setting the objectives which they did and so far you have totally failed to do that.

The idea that 'the virus has very clearly made up for lost time' between the two lockdowns is not just fanciful but utterly ridiculous - I've no idea in what fields your expertise lies but clearly even some very simple maths is beyond you if that is what you believe.

And finally meaningless truisms like 'it is not over until it its over' are just that and so what. We are in the middle of a crisis in which we are coping/performing very badly although we can see other countries coping much better. Nevertheless your advice is that we should carry on as we are, making the same mistakes we've already made all over again, ignoring the advice from people who have coped better and just muddle on through like that until it is all over, one way or the other, and then we'll do a drains up to see how we got on!

My God, you ought get your application in to be Johnson's new Chief of Staff, you sound as though you'd be ideal and let's face it,  your track record of defending him on here has been far more accomplished than the guys he's been paying mega-bucks for in No 10. Why should you be giving it away for free?

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8 hours ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus 🤒 Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time 👍

Will keep you posted.

Best of luck, mate. Will be rooting for you.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Much of Eastern Europe missed out on the early spring pandemic but are now making up for it big time. We will all finish up in very similar size boats by the time this ends.

If there is any truth at all to the suggestions that working vaccines are now fairly close then that is quite simply untrue.

In fact it is simply not true even if the vaccines take longer - there are around 125 countries (i.e. around 58% of all countries) which have so far recorded less (some a lot less) than 100 deaths per 1m of population. Some of these countries are small but there are some very big ones in there as well.

The UK has currently recorded 761 deaths per 1m of population and rising quickly. The US has recorded 757 deaths per 1m of population and also rising quickly.

Germany, which I think most would accept as a reasonable country to compare ourselves with, has recorded 150 per 1m of population and is rising at about 25% of the speed of the UK. For the global perspective then the worldwide average is 169 per million of population. And let's not forget that these are purely Covid deaths, if we look at the more accurate excess deaths figure the picture for the UK gets even worse.

We are not all going to end up in similar sized boats by the time this all ends, not even close.

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think what you actually mean is that you are not prepared to admit that they got it right, and by implication Johnson got it wrong because you have a real issue with that concept.

I might say that you have a real issue with saying that Johnson has ever done anything that's not borderline evil. 

I am not sure you'll see me praise the government once over the hundred of pages here or before. But equally I am not going to criticise where no criticism can be fully justified.  Happy for you to prove me wrong if you can

Easy points aside it might be a truism but the fact remains that this virus will continue through  population until the population is immune to the critical level,  be that the natural way or through vaccination.  Nothing we do can realistically change that fact.

I know I am beating this drum repeatedly but it doesn't seem to be getting through: lockdown doesn't stop the disease, it delays it. The only thing that will stop the disease being epidemic is when enough  of us are immune.

I actually support this current lockdown but I am not stupid enough to claim victory or defeat at half time.  When R is less than one with  no real restrictions that is when we can say it is coming to an end and that's when we can begin the grim count. 

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 Nevertheless your advice is that we should carry on as we are, making the same mistakes we've already made all over again, ignoring the advice from people who have coped better

This is utter rubbish.   Find one place, just one place where I have said this!  I support this lockdown.   I am , however realistic about lockdowns.   They can buy time but without a way of using the time bought they are pretty pointless.

In this case , however, it clearly did come with a plan- to bring numbers down and open up just a we expect to start handing out vaccines

 

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

The idea that 'the virus has very clearly made up for lost time' between the two lockdowns is not just fanciful but utterly ridiculous - I've no idea in what fields your expertise lies but clearly even some very simple maths is beyond you if that is what you believe.

 

Just look at France and Spain, and Romania and Poland etc etc.   The virus came back, and with more limited immunity in the community than would otherwise have been the case it was able to spread quickly. That’s what epidemics do.  That's the basic maths of this, that's how it can quickly make up for lost time if we do not remain  vigilent.

 

And let's not be offensive, it demeans us both

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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40 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

We are not all going to end up in similar sized boats by the time this all ends, not even close.

I hope you're right.   If you are proved correct it will be because as a world we have done something absolutely incredible with the vaccines.

Incidentally i am not entirely sure that we all started in the same place.  The differences between rates in latin America, Europe America and the East and South East asia really need some thought but we've had this discussion in the past

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

Most of us know that the Welsh got it right 

And to summarise my last post. No,  no you dont know that and nor does anyone.

In due course when the count is done we might well decide that the Welsh government got it right.  All I am doing is cautioning against deciding anything ahead of knowing the facts

 

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I

This is utter rubbish.   Find one place, just one place where I have said this!  I support this lockdown.   I am , however realistic about lockdowns.   They can buy time but without a way of using the time bought they are pretty pointless.

 

Even this Government could hardly be clearer about the point of the lockdown. It is fundamentally about preventing the NHS being overwhelmed and unable to function

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The Swedish model is getting a bit of a kicking.

 

Edited by Herman
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Good morning all...

Currently tucking into a full English and everything's tasting as it should 🍳🥩🥛 👍 

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11 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I might say that you have a real issue with saying that Johnson has ever done anything that's not borderline evil.

You might but you would be telling an outright lie, which is not your usual style. Normally you try and deflect from the substantive issue or waffle in a very non-committal way about it being too early to judge, or maybe there is some other factor, usually unspecified, that we should cosider before passing judgement.

As you well know I have frequently criticised Johnson for the damage that his incompetence and stupidity have inflicted upon the UK and its citizens but in no way does that justify your charactarisation of my posts - especially as you also well know, but refuse to admit, that most of my criticisms of Johnson have been proven to be correct.

The rest of your reply I really can't be bothered with as it is quite clear that you refuse to recognise any facts which are inconvenient to what you believe. In fact you go even further and trot out nonsense such as 'Easy points aside it might be a truism but the fact remains that this virus will continue through  population until the population is immune to the critical level,  be that the natural way or through vaccination.  Nothing we do can realistically change that fact' even though I'm pretty sure that everybody reading this thread is well aware of countries that have drastically changed that fact.

I stopped replying to your posts for quite some time because it seems pointless, and at times frustrating, to respond to someone who is happy to theorise about what is/isn't/might/might not happen/has happened and yet totally refuses to engage in any discussion about the actual reality of what is happening and what that points towards as likely to happen in the future. Your capacity to ignore facts and indulge in wishful thinking as if it were truth is true Brexiteer style delusion but I thought on this thread we are all concerned about a crisis which touches us all and focussing on how we best get through it.

Anyway I shall revert to my previous sensible policy of ignoring your posts (not sure why I suspended it really 🙄) and then we won't have to concern ourselves with issues of civility, or pomposity. But thank you, at least, for confirming that you really don't understand the maths underlying the spread of this virus, that was the one element of your reply that I read with a real smile on my face 😀

Edited by Creative Midfielder
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1 hour ago, Herman said:

The Swedish model is getting a bit of a kicking.

 

Don't think there is any doubt that the Swedes got it wrong but I think some of the criticisms are overly harsh, partly because they have already admitted themselves, and apologised that they got some of it wrong (albeit without entirely giving up on their herd immunity strategy).

I also think, though I could be wrong, that their adoption of the herd immunity strategy, though unwise, wasn't through arrogance or lack of thought and although they got it wrong and had far more deaths than they should have done, they did manage to limit the spread probably more than anyone would have expected without lockdown - their real problem was that the herd immunity was a mirage and didn't build in remotely the way that they were hoping for.

Nevertheless I would suggest that it was a thought out plan which didn't work unlike the UK's initial herd immunity approach which was just wishful thinking - perhaps from that perspective we should be more appreciative of Johnson's ability to perform total and frequent u-turns  😂

 

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9 hours ago, horsefly said:

Even this Government could hardly be clearer about the point of the lockdown. It is fundamentally about preventing the NHS being overwhelmed and unable to function

Yes, and I agree with this lockdown and I agree with the Welsh lockdown too. 

I do have a slight fear that they might have been a bit early in the season to achieve their aim without a third go around but I am hopeful that the vaccine will be approved and a programme implemented very soon. I am also heartened by London rates not taking off as yet which might be hinting at high levels of immunity already.

 

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

Anyway I shall revert to my previous sensible policy of ignoring your posts (not sure why I suspended it really 🙄) and then we won't have to concern ourselves with issues of civility, or pomposity. But thank you, at least, for confirming that you really don't understand the maths underlying the spread

Probably the best for both of our sakes, and of everyone else.

I am not particularly interested in discussing the politics of this as I think that politics doesn't make for a great debate on the pink un.  That is why I have tried to stay away from political judgements and stayed on the epidemiology.  For what it is worth I would argue with RTB, Jools, Aggy and Ricardo too if I felt that they were rushing to judgements 

My very basic maths tells me either that we still have a long way to go or that we are at critical immunity  level now and lockdowns are largely pointless.  

 

Edited by Barbe bleu
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2 hours ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

A very informative watch. Whoever decides to watch this will learn far more than they will by listening to the hide behind the armchair experts on here...

This is totally Irresponsible and talks about people ignoring positive tests. 
If you have a positive test it is against the law to not quarantine for 10 days. I assume when he speaks about Covid now having no cases throughout America, Europe ect as it has gone away this was done in the summer.

 

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7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

This is totally Irresponsible and talks about people ignoring positive tests. 
If you have a positive test it is against the law to not quarantine for 10 days. I assume when he speaks about Covid now having no cases throughout America, Europe ect as it has gone away this was done in the summer.

 

The interview was done two days after current lockdown, it says that within the interview 

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1884452768_Screenshot_20201115-120344_BBCNews.thumb.jpg.b6795c91ff7c101827fca8bd3e27f27f.jpg

 

Migbt be that no one is reading this but if they are this is largely indicative of my concerns regarding the timing of the Welsh lockdown.

The Welsh government locked down in mid October and ended it a few days ago (so about midway between weeks 40 and 50) . 

I am going to assume that the spread of covid and flu are similar and that hospitals get full for a number of reasons , not least flu.

My fear us that Wales locked down to prevent the spread of viruses that aren't in massive circulation anyway and have opened up just as these things are due to really take off.   They have also opened up a few weeks earlier than others so a few weeks further from the vaccinations that offer the only solution to this other than natural immunity. By opening up earlier they will be fully exposed to the season for longer than others.

I am not saying that Wales was wrong, it might have got this spot on. Rather i am saying tha,t to the disinterested observer, it is too soon to tell who is most right or most wrong. 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

The interview was done two days after current lockdown, it says that within the interview 

So you think it responsible to put up information that says the test doesn’t work and you shouldn’t need to go into isolation ?.

Once you have a positive test it is against the law to not isolate. If you had significant contact with that person it is against the law to not isolate if you are told to do so.

Our 35 year old son in law who is classed as an extremely vulnerable has just caught it via a big link of somebody ignoring the rules, not getting tested and assuming his sore throat and fever was just a cold. We know of at least 12 positives and heaven knows how many in isolation through somebody not following the rules. 
The test tells you if you have Coronavirus and you must isolate. It does not tell you there is a slim possibility that you may have it as the test is not reliable. Had we had got test and trace throughout the world at the beginning we may not have been in this situation now.

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5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

So you think it responsible to put up information that says the test doesn’t work and you shouldn’t need to go into isolation ?.

Once you have a positive test it is against the law to not isolate. If you had significant contact with that person it is against the law to not isolate if you are told to do so.

Our 35 year old son in law who is classed as an extremely vulnerable has just caught it via a big link of somebody ignoring the rules, not getting tested and assuming his sore throat and fever was just a cold. We know of at least 12 positives and heaven knows how many in isolation through somebody not following the rules. 
The test tells you if you have Coronavirus and you must isolate. It does not tell you there is a slim possibility that you may have it as the test is not reliable. Had we had got test and trace throughout the world at the beginning we may not have been in this situation now.

It you watched  the whole interview you would realise why the test is so flawed and why we should ONLY be testing people who have symptoms. This mass testing is going against all advice from all experts. Everyone is saying only people with symptoms should be tested.

also worth mentioning that the world’s leading expert in this field agrees with the views expressed within this interview and has a peer reviewed paper backed and published  by the Who, but world governments are ignoring it, why would that be...

Edited by Teemu’s right foot

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5 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

It you watched  the whole interview you would realise why the test is so flawed and why we should ONLY be testing people who have symptoms. This mass testing is going against all advice from all experts. Everyone is saying only people with symptoms should be tested.

also worth mentioning that the world’s leading expert in this field agrees with the views expressed within this interview and has a peer reviewed paper backed and published  by the Who, but world governments are ignoring it, why would that be...

Our grandson was asymptotic, but went to a mass testing in Tamworth because of this idiot. His test was positive which meant at least he didn’t pass the virus to his school friends, his teacher and then their families. So many the PCR test saved from exposure. He is 7 and although asymptotic gave it to his whole family. His test at least saved some further transmission. 
Even if it does not work in all cases, what is best, 100 people staying indoors when only 25 have it or nobody staying indoors when 25 have it, and research shows the current test used in Liverpool is 75% accurate. The test used at a normal testing centre is 98 % accurate last time I saw the figures. The most dangerous thing with a test is somebody being told they are negative when they are positive, not somebody that has a false positive.

He also said Covid is not a serious disease, when he should have said for the vast majority of people Covid is a minor illness.

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130 new cases in one day in Cornwall yesterday. Instead of clusters as in the past, the cases are throughout the county. 3 in my area of Redruth. Sure its down to people becoming blase about distancing, hand washing etc.

Falmouth to be trialled for rapid testing.

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