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3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Just read up on the so called Mink variant of Covid 19 in North Denmark, which has between 5-7 mutations and can possibly renderĀ  vaccines useless and pretty much kill a persons immunity stone dead against Covid..no wonder Matt Hancock and other health professionals are concerned by this, if it got out and travelled the globe it really could be the ultimate nightmare.

Well that'sĀ spolit the day!

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55 minutes ago, ricardo said:

ZOE App shows another small drop. Now down about 6% on the week.

Still up here Ricardo. Depressingly so (11500 today). An outlier perhaps.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

ZOE App shows another small drop. Now down about 6% on the week.

Zoe was mirroring ONS for a good while, made it a very good reflection of the best data, there has been a bit of a divergence recently but still good data.

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14 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Still up here Ricardo. Depressingly so (11500 today). An outlier perhaps.

With such high levels of infection across the country it doesnā€™t take much disregard for good infection controlĀ in a region to get the infection growing again.Ā 

Edited by Van wink

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Zoe was mirroring ONS for a good while, made it a very good reflection of the best data, there has been a bit of a divergence recently but still good data.

I like Zoe but I do recognise that those that report for Zoe are not a fair sample of the population but by definition a self selectingĀ sort.

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19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Still up here Ricardo. Depressingly so (11500 today). An outlier perhaps.

Disappointing.

In Norwich and much of Norfolk there has beenĀ a slight uptick in the last week but nowhere near the numbers in your area.

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I was in Aldi today (other supermarkets are available). And I was the only person I saw cleaning the trolley or gelling the hands. I stood to wait at the end of an aisle as one or two were hovering over which bacon to select.

A woman came up to me within 6 inches and shouted in my ear "nobody is bothering withĀ social distancing are they ".

Just as listening to Radio Cornwall and people ringing up complaining that "while the missus and me were out, lots of people were out, not bothering to stay in like they are supposed to".

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57 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I was in Aldi today (other supermarkets are available). And I was the only person I saw cleaning the trolley or gelling the hands. I stood to wait at the end of an aisle as one or two were hovering over which bacon to select.

A woman came up to me within 6 inches and shouted in my ear "nobody is bothering withĀ social distancing are they ".

Just as listening to Radio Cornwall and people ringing up complaining that "while the missus and me were out, lots of people were out, not bothering to stay in like they are supposed to".

We will reap what we sow KG

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34 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We will reap what we sow KG

Indeed. I also noticed the red light/green light outside the supermarket. I much preferred the previous one out one in in the previous lockdown.

Primark in Truro worked out that the square foot total of the store would allow over 300 in.

However, its over two floors. Female ground, Male 1st floor. WhatĀ if there were 299 women shopping for women's clothes and just one man after mens.

Reality and common sense are missing along with one size fits all vaccine.

Ā 

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Thanks sony.Ā  I get the sense that Most of theĀ scientistsĀ are probably largely agreed that the tier system is the post lockdown future. If I was a gambler I would say that after lockdown it will be a few weeks at the lower tiers and then regions will go back up.

I'm not seeingĀ  a return to April levels in this but the news put of France is hardly positive and I understand that Spain has a recordeding system that is not comparable, soĀ still a lot of dry wood to burn through in some regions.Ā  Ā London perhaps the best placed region.

Ā 

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5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I was in Aldi today (other supermarkets are available). And I was the only person I saw cleaning the trolley or gelling the hands. I stood to wait at the end of an aisle as one or two were hovering over which bacon to select.

A woman came up to me within 6 inches and shouted in my ear "nobody is bothering withĀ social distancing are they ".

Just as listening to Radio Cornwall and people ringing up complaining that "while the missus and me were out, lots of people were out, not bothering to stay in like they are supposed to".

Relax, KG. You have had very few Covid deaths since middle of May. The Grim Reaper is passing you by

cornwall.JPG

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7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thanks sony.Ā  I get the sense that Most of theĀ scientistsĀ are probably largely agreed that the tier system is the post lockdown future. If I was a gambler I would say that after lockdown it will be a few weeks at the lower tiers and then regions will go back up.

I'm not seeingĀ  a return to April levels in this but the news put of France is hardly positive and I understand that Spain has a recordeding system that is not comparable, soĀ still a lot of dry wood to burn through in some regions.Ā  Ā London perhaps the best placed region.

Ā 

There were reports yesterday evening suggesting we may need restrictions right up to and through Christmas and even scepticism that the tiers were working....though the evidence is mixed and inconsistent, because in some areas it has seemed to have influenced a tail off. I suppose given that each city region is not able to achieve geographical isolation in terms of peoples' movements that is no surprise.

I've read too that whole areas will be tiered not just city areas (e.g. the whole of the north etc). One thing I took from the graphs overall is that it remains very uncertain. Scientists feel they may know more in a week (or two!). Lockdown so far is only just over a week. The Wales graphs show a distinct reduction (ditto NI). Hospitalisations are rising too but in a controlled increase sense rather than April's sudden peaking.

Who knows!

Unlike in July when I thought we had seen the back of it, it's uncomfortable up north (Yorks) for sure. And as some posters have (rightly) stated, if we knew of all other death rates from flu etc reported in the way they are now with C19, would we be as concerned? It's changed behaviours and level of anxiety.

Only yesterday it was brought into sharp relief for me coming across an elderly couple on the moor, he had collapsed and we had to use What 3 Words to get the ambulance there. Luckily it was an angina attack and he improved so hopefully he will be okay. Whilst I was of use (dog kept wanting to give the bloke her ball!) it struck home (if I needed to be reminded), death can just be round the corner! Also, was impressed by the NHS.

Ā 

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8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

There were reports yesterday evening suggesting we may need restrictions right up to and through Christmas and even scepticism that the tiers were working....though the evidence is mixed and inconsistent, because in some areas it has seemed to have influenced a tail off. I suppose given that each city region is not able to achieve geographical isolation in terms of peoples' movements that is no surprise.

I've read too that whole areas will be tiered not just city areas (e.g. the whole of the north etc). One thing I took from the graphs overall is that it remains very uncertain. Scientists feel they may know more in a week (or two!). Lockdown so far is only just over a week. The Wales graphs show a distinct reduction (ditto NI). Hospitalisations are rising too but in a controlled increase sense rather than April's sudden peaking.

Who knows!

Unlike in July when I thought we had seen the back of it, it's uncomfortable up north (Yorks) for sure. And as some posters have (rightly) stated, if we knew of all other death rates from flu etc reported in the way they are now with C19, would we be as concerned? It's changed behaviours and level of anxiety.

Only yesterday it was brought into sharp relief for me coming across an elderly couple on the moor, he had collapsed and we had to use What 3 Words to get the ambulance there. Luckily it was an angina attack and he improved so hopefully he will be okay. Whilst I was of use (dog kept wanting to give the bloke her ball!) it struck home (if I needed to be reminded), death can just be round the corner! Also, was impressed by the NHS.

Ā 

Agreed, theĀ next couple of weeks will show us if this ā€œlockdownā€ is having muchĀ effect. I hope it does but I fear itā€™s not been tough enough or observed sufficiently to make a significant difference ( as in Wales ) with so much infection around.Ā 
Hope the old boy is ok, our dog is the same, gives any stranger his ball but then nudges them really hard with his nose, often in inappropriate places šŸ˜³

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Hope the old boy is ok, our dog is the same, gives any stranger his ball but then nudges them really hard with his nose, often in inappropriate places šŸ˜³

Ā 

I hope so. They had been married 47 years and his wife 'knew' something wasn't right about him. They had walked a good way before. Even lying prone I could see him smile as the dog gave him the ball and pressed it into his hand stretched at his side. It was a good sign! Dogs are the ultimate healers.

I'm not convinced either about numbers being affected enough, not to influence the lagged hospital admissions we know about. I'm guided by Zoe here for my yardstick. It's as good as any.

Ā 

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I suspect its too soon to know if the Welsh lockdown was a success or not.

It appears to have achieved its instant aim of reducing infection rates but whether or not this translates into anything enduring is probably not known yet.

I'm pretty hopeful though and honestly believe that we have pushed the virus back enough that the vaccine will be able to do its job before April levels are met anywhere.

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I suspect its too soon to know if the Welsh lockdown was a success or not.

It appears to have achieved its instant aim of reducing infection rates but whether or not this translates into anything enduring is probably not known yet.

Not at all, it clearly has achieved its aims which were to reduce infection rates while mitigating disruption to normal life as far as possible - both by making the lockdown short but also taking advantage of the half term to minimise the impact on school children.

I think your use of 'instant' is completely redundant - they have achieved what they set out to do and that translates into fewer Welsh deaths in the next few weeks and gives the NHS in Wales, which was in danger of being swamped, some breathing space.

I think covers everything they were hoping to do and they did it in half the time that Johnson locked England down for, probably turn out to be less than half unless Johnson unlocks when he said he would, which at the moment looks unlikely.

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25 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Not at all, it clearly has achieved its aims which were to reduce infection rates while mitigating disruption to normal life as far as possible - both by making the lockdown short but also taking advantage of the half term to minimise the impact on school children.

I think your use of 'instant' is completely redundant - they have achieved what they set out to do and that translates into fewer Welsh deaths in the next few weeks and gives the NHS in Wales, which was in danger of being swamped, some breathing space.

I think covers everything they were hoping to do and they did it in half the time that Johnson locked England down for, probably turn out to be less than half unless Johnson unlocks when he said he would, which at the moment looks unlikely.

I'm thinking of the long term.Ā  As you say the data suggests that infections were reduced, that was the aim of the policy, but was the policy the correct one?

If the result is only to delayĀ rather than prevent infections overall itĀ Ā won't really have achieved very much.Ā If the result is to delay the peak until the hospitals are completely full with other problems it could fairlyĀ be judged as disastrous.

In truth we will only know the relative success or failure of any lockdown once we have a vaccination programme underway or if we sees patients being turned away for sake of space in hospitals.

France recorded nearly 1000 deaths yesterday.Ā A lot of these lives lost were lives saved by their first lockdown- ie lockdown did not prevent them dying of covid, it just delayed the point at which this happened. True 4-6 months of extra life is precious, but I'd prefer lot , lot more if I was in that position

Ā 

Edited by Barbe bleu
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I've tested positive for the virus šŸ¤’ Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time šŸ‘

Will keep you posted.

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6 minutes ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus šŸ¤’ Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time šŸ‘

Will keep you posted.

Whatever our differences I hope you get over it quickly.

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1 hour ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus šŸ¤’ Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time šŸ‘

Will keep you posted.

Sorry to hear J. Hope you continue to feel okay. šŸ¤ž

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16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Another small drop in the ZOE App numbers today.

And here too. By only 200 but a reduction is a reduction!

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1 hour ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus šŸ¤’ Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time šŸ‘

Will keep you posted.

Its a free hangover.Ā  If you are goingĀ to feel rough in the morning anyway you might as well take the opportunityĀ 

Ā 

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2 hours ago, Jools said:

I've tested positive for the virus šŸ¤’ Informed at work by the NHS yesterday from a test I did Monday...

Apart from a hangover I feel fine at this time šŸ‘

Will keep you posted.

Stay well my boy

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

And here too. By only 200 but a reduction is a reduction!

Figures in Broadland dropping back a bit onĀ Zoe šŸ‘

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Stay well my boy

Thanks, VW, I feel fine and no symptoms at presentĀ šŸ‘Ā Having to isolate from the wife and daughter has its upsĀ šŸ˜‰

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2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm thinking of the long term.Ā  As you say the data suggests that infections were reduced, that was the aim of the policy, but was the policy the correct one?

Well there are certainly a few people who want to debate that but the overwhelming scientific view and indeed the evidence so far from countries which have been successful (and continue to be successful) in minimising deaths says that it was the correct one. The fact that one of their aims was to stop their hospitals being overwhelmed which would not only have resulted in more Covid but also increases in non-Covid deaths because other serious illnesses were not able to be treated also says it was the correct policy.

If the result is only to delayĀ rather than prevent infections overall itĀ Ā won't really have achieved very much.Ā If the result is to delay the peak until the hospitals are completely full with other problems it could fairlyĀ be judged as disastrous.

In truth we will only know the relative success or failure of any lockdown once we have a vaccination programme underway or if we sees patients being turned away for sake of space in hospitals.

France recorded nearly 1000 deaths yesterday.Ā A lot of these lives lost were lives saved by their first lockdown- ie lockdown did not prevent them dying of covid, it just delayed the point at which this happened. True 4-6 months of extra life is precious, but I'd prefer lot , lot more if I was in that position

Frankly, that is a string of non-seqiturs. Nobody is explicitly 'saved' by a lockdown, all we know with reasonable certainly is that across the population the spread will be reduced and less people will die. We've also always known, with a fair degree of certainty, that there would be more than one wave of Covid, so by definition anyone who survives the first wave becomes a possible fatality in another wave.

I think it is ridiculous, frankly, to charactarise the first lockdown as a failure or even a very limited success because there are fatalities in the second. In any case I think you will find that a lot of 1000 people dying in France yesterday were infected before their lockdown started (or soon after by a family member/colleague etc who was), so I think you need to wait a bit longer to say their lockdown has failed.

Finally if you really want to debate whether lockdown is the 'correct' policy then you have to start being a lot more precise about what you mean by lockdown and indeed what your policy is expected to accomplish.

In the UK, and most other European countries, lockdown has been used purely to slow the spread the virus, there has been no serious attempt to completely stop the virus (Nicola Sturgeon might disagree, I think she was trying to head in that direction at one stage but it wasn't entirely practical as a Scotland only policy). In the UK we have also had the local version of lockdown which IMO has been a complete failure and the national version which was reasonably successful first time around.

However if we look to SE Asia and New Zealand, they are prime examples of countries whose strategy is completely different and whose lockdown policies were\are intended to totally stop the spread and eliminate the virus, and in that they have been pretty (though not entirely) successful.

In overall terms it is probably still too early to say what the most successful policy will turn out to be. But we are now almost a year into this crisis and the second major wave around the globe, and at the moment it is pretty clear that:

  1. The SE Asian countries and New Zealand who the eliminate stratgey have fared far, far better than the European\Western countries who have followed the contain strategy.
  2. Even within the countries that followed the contain strategy there are very marked differences in outcome, and sadly the UK has performed extremely poorly compared to it's peers.

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